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CapitalTigers

2012 Offseason thread

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Avril's going to get himself 8 or 9 per on a long term deal. A one year deal on the tag is always going to be a slight premium, so 11(10.5?) is hardly ridiculous. You don't let him walk for no compensation over that much for sure. Now if they/you aren't willing to pay him the 8 or so long term, its another story

I can say with a lot of certainty that he will get no where near that amount per year. Here's a close comparison, Jason Babin, played in a wide 9 in Tennessee in 2010 and finished with 13 sacks on the year...signed with Philidelphia who runs the same scheme for 5years/$28 million with 5.5 million guaranteed. That's about what Cliff is worth and will be signing for...I believe you're overvaluing our players.

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That article brings up some scary numbers, but which of those teams that "contend every year" is going to pay him $25 million a year? None, that's why they contend every year, they don't do dumb things. CJ will sign for less than that, bank on it. I have nothing but intuition to back that up, but he doesn't seem like a dollar and cents kind of guy and from what I preceive, he loves it hear and just wants to win...I think he'll take less to ensure we have the best chance to sign the talent we need to win. At least I hope so

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I can say with a lot of certainty that he will get no where near that amount per year. Here's a close comparison, Jason Babin, played in a wide 9 in Tennessee in 2010 and finished with 13 sacks on the year...signed with Philidelphia who runs the same scheme for 5years/$28 million with 5.5 million guaranteed. That's about what Cliff is worth and will be signing for...I believe you're overvaluing our players.

A closer comparison would be Charles Johnson, who signed for 12/year at age 25.

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That article brings up some scary numbers, but which of those teams that "contend every year" is going to pay him $25 million a year? None, that's why they contend every year, they don't do dumb things. CJ will sign for less than that, bank on it. I have nothing but intuition to back that up, but he doesn't seem like a dollar and cents kind of guy and from what I preceive, he loves it hear and just wants to win...I think he'll take less to ensure we have the best chance to sign the talent we need to win. At least I hope so

I think if we offered him 16 million per year and made him the highest paid receiver in the NFL, he would take it. It does not make a lot of sense for him to hold the Lions hostage and limit their cap flexibility if he wants to win. And if he tested free agency, he is not going to get near what he would get if the Lion's franchised him.

It seems like very poor cap management to me for the Lions to allow his cap number to be at 22 million per the year before he hits free agency. You lose all leverage that the franchise tag gives you. If his franchise tag number was the average of the top 5 receivers in the NFL, it would be around 13 million.

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I think if we offered him 16 million per year and made him the highest paid receiver in the NFL, he would take it. It does not make a lot of sense for him to hold the Lions hostage and limit their cap flexibility if he wants to win. And if he tested free agency, he is not going to get near what he would get if the Lion's franchised him.

It seems like very poor cap management to me for the Lions to allow his cap number to be at 22 million per the year before he hits free agency. You lose all leverage that the franchise tag gives you. If his franchise tag number was the average of the top 5 receivers in the NFL, it would be around 13 million.

That's what happens with players that are selected so high in the draft. That's why the former system was so wrong. And he's worth every penny.

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A closer comparison would be Charles Johnson, who signed for 12/year at age 25.

Let him walk then. Just because Carolina overpaid for Johnson does not mean we should overpay for Avril.

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That's what happens with players that are selected so high in the draft. That's why the former system was so wrong. And he's worth every penny.

But my point is it seems like the Lions could have taken a bigger cap hit in the years prior to the last year of his contract so his franchise tag number is not so high.

The biggest problem I have with this kind of cap hit for a receiver is what happens if Stafford gets hurt. He is the best receiver in the NFL but his value is somewhat predicated on the quarterback's production. And this is why teams shy away from taking receivers in the top 5 of the draft.

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But my point is it seems like the Lions could have taken a bigger cap hit in the years prior to the last year of his contract so his franchise tag number is not so high.

The biggest problem I have with this kind of cap hit for a receiver is what happens if Stafford gets hurt. He is the best receiver in the NFL but his value is somewhat predicated on the quarterback's production. And this is why teams shy away from taking receivers in the top 5 of the draft.

I'm not sure about this, but I think the specifications on the franchise tag changed, it used to be the average of the top 5 salaries at that position. Now it's that OR 120% of the salary in the final contract year for that player, which ever is higher, just as the article states. I'm not sure if that percentage was part of the franchise when they structured the contract originally.

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A closer comparison would be Charles Johnson, who signed for 12/year at age 25.

That's a horrible comparison, he played one full year starting and had a decent year so they drastically over paid for him. It's a horrible contract, worse than the Chris Johnson deal...he got what, 10 sacks this year? They gave him Julius Peppers money because they didn't want him to leave like Peppers did and hoped he would step in and have Peppers-like production, but he's no where near that caliber of player. Cliff is not elite, he's average to above average, and more easily replaced than people think.

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If Dennard is there I'd for sure be alright with that pick. Janoris Jenkins is another name to throw out there. He had the arrest for weed & transferred from Florida to South Alabama, but he's still being projected fairly high. Obviously the biggest issue with him would be can he stay out of trouble, but I don't think there's any doubt he'd be one of the top corners picked if he were still at Florida.

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BPA is always the way to go in the draft if you hope to be a consistent long term winner.

Thier needs though, in order of importance imo, are MLB, CB, center, OLB, FS, RB and developmental OL.

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If Dennard is there I'd for sure be alright with that pick. Janoris Jenkins is another name to throw out there. He had the arrest for weed & transferred from Florida to South Alabama, but he's still being projected fairly high. Obviously the biggest issue with him would be can he stay out of trouble, but I don't think there's any doubt he'd be one of the top corners picked if he were still at Florida.

He is projected to be high, that's for sure. I would have to wait and see Dennard run, and others also; before I would jump on that pick. I'm guessing the Giants would love to have the Prince Amukamara pick back from last year. He simply cannot run fast enough, and was torched.

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QB: Obviously set

RB: Keep Kevin Smith if you can, he's a nice veteran to plug in at that 3rd RB spot because RBs are so frequently hurt. He will probably leave to get a better crack at playing time. Let Morris walk, he stinks.

WR: We're pretty set. The top 3 are good, I'm sure they bring in a vet to replace Stovall on the constant merry-go-round of the last WR spot that is every NFL team.

TE: Set

Offensive Line: Backus is done, major liability at times this year. Maybe he can move inside and replace Peterman, maybe move over to RT and replace Gosder and get a little more help from the TEs...but he is falling fast.

Gosder is pretty bad.

Everyone knows Raiola's issues (and his strengths). Nothing much changed this year, I'm sure he'll be back.

Sims is passable, Peterman isn't very good.

This group is what it is. A good pass blocking group that is aging. I expect atleast 2 of these spots to be upgraded via Free Agency or the Draft.

Defensive Line:

Very over-rated unit. KVB is one his last legs and Corey Williams is done. Suh had a sophomore slump, but he'll be better. Fairley looked good. Avril is good, and seems a tick under-rated on this board (he's a good run defender as well, it's not just about sacks). Still like the depth (Hill, LoJack), it'd be nice if we can keep it in-tact. This group still needs a DE to replace KVB.

Linebacker:

Tulloch is pretty good (PFF thinks he is really good...). Durant is alright. Levy was terrible and the depth is poor.

Defensive Back:

In the NFL you need 5-6 quality DBs to start a season (since the NFL is a nickle-back League, and DB is the most injured position on the field with a 75% injury rate).

Delmas is obviously pretty good. Houston is solid. Spievey is a bit of an enigma, but he's also young and still developing. I like Aaron Berry as a nickle-guy (even if he did get posterized against NOLA, and drop a few picks).

Chris Harris, Eric Wright and Alphonso Smith are garbage. Adding a top-notch corner should be priority #1, and adding a good safety should be #2. Let Spievey and Berry work in the nickle/dime package and replace injuries.

Miscellaneous:

I'd like to see them replace Stefan Logan with someone who can contribute as a receiver/backup RB. Someone earlier mentioned LaMichael James and I think a player of that ilk is a fantastic idea. They had a good idea with Derrick Williams, but the wrong player. They need to draft a 3rd/4th/5th round player who can return kicks and catch some passes out of the backfield or in the slot (ala Jahvid Best, but to replace Best when he inevitably gets injured).

I also expect them to draft a bigger back to replace Keiland Williams, who wore out his welcome with his fumbleitis.

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I like Delmas...but I think he's overrated by most Lions fans. Yea, he makes tackles when guys get in the secondary with the ball, but he's not good in pass coverage, IMO. I can't think of the last time he made more than one play against the pass in a single game. Rarely see him knocking balls down or forcing drops...every time I seem to hear his name, it's because he's up in run defense.

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I like Delmas...but I think he's overrated by most Lions fans. Yea, he makes tackles when guys get in the secondary with the ball, but he's not good in pass coverage, IMO. I can't think of the last time he made more than one play against the pass in a single game. Rarely see him knocking balls down or forcing drops...every time I seem to hear his name, it's because he's up in run defense.

I agree with you, mostly. I think a lot of fans think he's a pro-bowl, or near pro-bowl caliber player. He's not. He is a consistent tackler with speed, which is valuable as heck in a safety. He also is hurt by a poor supporting cast. It's easy for teams to throw away from him when they can abuse Harris/Spievey/Wright/Smith. There are not a lot of forced passes in his direction for him to make a play on.

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I agree with you, mostly. I think a lot of fans think he's a pro-bowl, or near pro-bowl caliber player. He's not. He is a consistent tackler with speed, which is valuable as heck in a safety. He also is hurt by a poor supporting cast. It's easy for teams to throw away from him when they can abuse Harris/Spievey/Wright/Smith. There are not a lot of forced passes in his direction for him to make a play on.

Personally I don't think he is pro bowl level yet, but he was named an alternate by the players and coaches so they must think he's pretty good. It isn't like he is going on recognition from 5 years of playing.

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Vanden Bosch had 8 sacks last year which was more than the previous two seasons combined. He and Avril combined for 19 sacks and the Lions were top 10 in sacks despite being among the least blitzing team in the league. Teams like the Giants who have a great DL blitz a lot more than the Lions. Asking 4 DL to beat 5 blockers plus any backs consistently isn't going to happen.

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I'd like to see Willie Young get more time next year at DE. Seemed to me that he was very adept at bull rushing from the outside whenever he was in there...and of course caused the big fumble against Brees (the one the refs missed). With KVB getting up there in years, I think Young is ready to split time at least 50/50. Also, Lawrence Jackson should get more PT...though he was injured in 2011 for several weeks.

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Offensive Line: Backus is done, major liability at times this year. Maybe he can move inside and replace Peterman, maybe move over to RT and replace Gosder and get a little more help from the TEs...but he is falling fast.

Gosder is pretty bad.

As the season went on, Gosder improved.

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Gosdar and Backus both seemed to get better as they healed up. I liked our OL play this year at all 5 spots to be honest. We need youth and depth, as Backus is old, Cherilus has had injuries, and Raiola/Peterman won't be around for the long haul exactly, but the starting unit is one I feel comfortable with.

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Far from set. We only have 1 under contract.

Backup QBs are a dime a dozen in the NFL. There are a number of quality guys floating around the league. I would assume Stanton wants to stay, and he's a quality backup. Then there are any number of Free Agents to be.

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Backup QBs are a dime a dozen in the NFL. There are a number of quality guys floating around the league. I would assume Stanton wants to stay, and he's a quality backup. Then there are any number of Free Agents to be.

Tell that to Chicago...

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