Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Here's a great article from someone who has a vote. I agree with him on every point, but he can express it 100 times better than I can:

Joe Blogs: The Myth of Pressure

Honestly, to discredit pressure or clutchness all together really does a disservice to the award if that is how it is voted on.

Here's the thing, its not so much that the team is out of a division race or playoff picture all together, it is that other players ARE in the race, and in that scenario you can measure how good they are down the stretch, because those games are under a microscope. I have no way of knowing how good Bautista is in pressure packed situations, because he hasn't faced any, and I will never vote for an MVP who is only hitting for individual success down the stretch, rather than propelling a team to the playoffs.

You can measure pressure, it is entirely subjective, and that is fine, but it does add value to an evaluation. So, I find it absurd to completely discredit it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
BetRivers Michigan Sports Betting

BetRivers Michigan $50 Launch Offer

Michigan online sports betting is launching in January 2021. Pre-register at BetRivers Sportsbook and get a free $50 bonus at their online sportsbook & casino with no deposit necessary.

Claim $50 at BetRivers Michigan Now

Posnanski, and I love reading his stuff, has a serious man crush on Bautista, McGwire, and Greinke.

But I do love what he said about an ace and a card you need.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I like Adrian Gonzalez way more than Jose Bautista for the MVP, if Verlander doesn't get it.

What Red Sox team have you been watching?

Adrian Gonzalez has been the only constant the entire season.

Jacoby Ellsbury says hi.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Honestly, to discredit pressure or clutchness all together really does a disservice to the award if that is how it is voted on.

Here's the thing, its not so much that the team is out of a division race or playoff picture all together, it is that other players ARE in the race, and in that scenario you can measure how good they are down the stretch, because those games are under a microscope. I have no way of knowing how good Bautista is in pressure packed situations, because he hasn't faced any, and I will never vote for an MVP who is only hitting for individual success down the stretch, rather than propelling a team to the playoffs.

You can measure pressure, it is entirely subjective, and that is fine, but it does add value to an evaluation. So, I find it absurd to completely discredit it.

Teams win games. The things that players do to help team's win games are largely (not totally) individual. Bautista is doing as much or more to help his team win games than other leading candidates. It's not his fault that his teammates aren't that good.

As for pressure, one of Joe's main points was that players on bad teams have more pressure to perform because it's hard to perform when there is nothing to play for. It's easier to perform well when you're in a divisional race because you are really into it. It's a lot more fun to play for a winning team than a losing team.

Edited by tiger337

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Teams win games. The things that players do to help team's win games are largely (not totally) individual. Bautista is doing as much or more to help his team win games than other leading candidates. It's not his fault that his teammates aren't that good.

But we don't know how well he would do when the games mean the difference between going to the playoffs or not. For me, that is important, I want to see what a player does down the stretch.

As for pressure, one of Joe's main points was that players on bad teams have more pressure to perform because it's hard to perform when there is nothing to play for. It's easier to perform well when you're in a divisional race because you are really into it.

I guess we are way off then, per the usual, because I see it exactly the opposite. When the playoffs or championship are on the line and everyone is looking at you, it becomes tougher.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
But we don't know how well he would do when the games mean the difference between going to the playoffs or not. For me, that is important, I want to see what a player does down the stretch.

Why wouldn't he do well down the stretch? He hit great earlier in the season when the Blue Jays were in the race. Many many players have been in both situations - in the race and out of the race. I have seen no evidence that players tend do better when they are out of the race than when they are in the race.

I guess we are way off then, per the usual, because I see it exactly the opposite. When the playoffs or championship are on the line and everyone is looking at you, it becomes tougher.

Maybe for rookies initially, but I don't see why veterans players would have trouble playing in big games before big crowds. I don't see how someone makes it to the majors if they can't handle competition and attention.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

During today's broadcast, Ken Rosenthal reminded us why pitchers rarely win the MVP Award. These are the criteria given to the voters:

(1) actual value of player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.

(2) number of games played

(3) General character, disposition, loyalty and effort

(4) former winners are eligible

(5) members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.

The criteria does not exclude pitchers, but (1) and (2) tell us why it's unusual for a pitcher to win it.

Edited by tiger337

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Jacoby Ellsbury says hi.

Wow, I so forgot about the captain of my own fantasy team - lol, nice call. I like more than Bautista too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just can't understand the "pitcher plays so much less argument." Its cute on the surface, but doesn't hold up under scrutiny, lets take a look:

The Blue Jays this year have had 5053 plate appearances as a team. Bautista has 525 of them. 525/5053 = 10.4%. On defense Bautista has 288 defensive chances out of a team total of 5010. 288/5010 = 5.7%.

Tigers pitching have a combined 1170 IP and JV has throw 215 of them. 215/1170 = 18.4%. That is nearly 20% of all innings the Tigers have pitched that Verlander has had a direct affect, as he had the ball in his hand. Bautista has a less direct effect on both offense and defense. Now obviously JV doesnt play offense, so we can cut his percentage in half to reflect the whole game...9.2% impact on the entire season, which is strikingly close to the 10.4% impact Bautista provides.

Conclusion...At best, the difference of impact between an ace (JV is a horse) and an everyday player, is negligible. Its a wash.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I just can't understand the "pitcher plays so much less argument." Its cute on the surface, but doesn't hold up under scrutiny, lets take a look:

The Blue Jays this year have had 5053 plate appearances as a team. Bautista has 525 of them. 525/5053 = 10.4%. On defense Bautista has 288 defensive chances out of a team total of 5010. 288/5010 = 5.7%.

Tigers pitching have a combined 1170 IP and JV has throw 215 of them. 215/1170 = 18.4%. That is nearly 20% of all innings the Tigers have pitched that Verlander has had a direct affect, as he had the ball in his hand. Bautista has a less direct effect on both offense and defense. Now obviously JV doesnt play offense, so we can cut his percentage in half to reflect the whole game...9.2% impact on the entire season, which is strikingly close to the 10.4% impact Bautista provides.

Conclusion...At best, the difference of impact between an ace (JV is a horse) and an everyday player, is negligible. Its a wash.

I wouldn't say that a pitcher has a more direct affect than a hitter (when he's batting). A pitcher shares responsibility with his fielders on balls put in play. A batter works by himself for the most part. He doesn't have teammates helping him make plays when he is at the plate. I do agree that a good starting pitcher can have as much overall impact as a good hitter, especially one that pitches as many innings as Verlander.

Edited by tiger337

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even though there are probably three to five players who are better qualified to win the MVP, it's not as though Granderson is wholly unqualified.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's not necessarily true based on the numbers. Granderson is right there in overall production with a .966 OPS. The only thing holding him back, if this is even an issue with real voters, is his defensive metrics. They suggest a decline and an overall negative impact. These numbers are pretty subjective though and Granderson has a strong defensive reputation while playing a premium defensive position as well. Ellsbury has better numbers, but Granderson has a good 75 OPS points on him. He definitely wins over Gonzalez who has the same OPS(.001 lower if we want to get technical) and plays 1B as opposed to CF.

As of today, I see it like this. However, the team Bautista plays for may hold him back in the end.

Bautista

Granderson

Verlander

Ellsbury/Gonzalez/Pedroia(could finish in any order but they are probably the next 3)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That's not necessarily true based on the numbers. Granderson is right there in overall production with a .966 OPS. The only thing holding him back, if this is even an issue with real voters, is his defensive metrics. They suggest a decline and an overall negative impact. These numbers are pretty subjective though and Granderson has a strong defensive reputation while playing a premium defensive position as well. Ellsbury has better numbers, but Granderson has a good 75 OPS points on him. He definitely wins over Gonzalez who has the same OPS(.001 lower if we want to get technical) and plays 1B as opposed to CF.

As of today, I see it like this. However, the team Bautista plays for may hold him back in the end.

Bautista

Granderson

Verlander

Ellsbury/Gonzalez/Pedroia(could finish in any order but they are probably the next 3)

Anyone have any idea what happened defensively? I havent really kept up with Granderson because he is not my concern anymore, but when he was here, he was about as good as they got in the OF. Yankee stadium is not as big. What happened to him? Drop in defense and a huge jump in offense. I mean, does it mean anything?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Anyone have any idea what happened defensively? I havent really kept up with Granderson because he is not my concern anymore, but when he was here, he was about as good as they got in the OF. Yankee stadium is not as big. What happened to him? Drop in defense and a huge jump in offense. I mean, does it mean anything?

Well his last year or so here people were suggesting his D has declined a bit, from elite to just very good though. Defensive stats are pretty iffy and I'd guess he is at the least playing a solid CF if not spectacular. I don't know the specifics of what hurt his D numbers though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

21-5, with five starts left.

Verlander has five starts left, for sure. Six, if Leyland is insightful enough to use one of the off days to shorten his rotation and give Verlander an extra start, which he could comfortably do. I'm sure Brad Penny would get over it.

I'm going to predict this: if Verlander runs the table and ends up 26-5 (or 27-5), he gets the MVP going away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's really hard for a starting pitcher to win an MVP because there's still a lot of voters who won't vote for a pitcher. In order for him to win it, I think he'll have to win 25+ games and keep his ERA way down. Then, he'll need to have none of the hitters stand out. I think the key is for the group of no-pitcher-can-be-MVP voters to be so divided that they don't give a lot of points to one hitter. I still think Granderson will get it if he manages to lead in HR and RBI along with runs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Funny how you speak of writers who won't vote for pitchers: Dave Van Dyck was being interviewed during the Cubs rain delay today, and the question of Verlander winning the AL MVP came up. He said that even though he voted for Willie Hernandez and Dave Eckersley to help them win their MVP awards, he would never vote for Verlander. The reason? A relief pitcher gets into 80 or more of a team's games, whereas a starting pitcher plays only every fifth day.

The Cubs announcers, instead of challenging him on this notion based on the fact that a starting pitcher works three times more innings than any reliever does, opted instead to read wedding anniversary announcements and do Cubs player charity promotional drop-ins.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A relief pitcher gets into more games, but it is often more than one reliever that gets used in a game. In Verlander's case it is mostly only 1 sometimes 2 relievers that get put into the game after him. If you think of it, he is hugely responsible for 25% of the Tigers wins this season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Funny how you speak of writers who won't vote for pitchers: Dave Van Dyck was being interviewed during the Cubs rain delay today, and the question of Verlander winning the AL MVP came up. He said that even though he voted for Willie Hernandez and Dave Eckersley to help them win their MVP awards, he would never vote for Verlander. The reason? A relief pitcher gets into 80 or more of a team's games, whereas a starting pitcher plays only every fifth day.

The Cubs announcers, instead of challenging him on this notion based on the fact that a starting pitcher works three times more innings than any reliever does, opted instead to read wedding anniversary announcements and do Cubs player charity promotional drop-ins.

That is literally one of the dumbest lines of thought I've ever heard in MVP voting logic. And I've heard slot of stupid things said. A starting pitcher like Verlander is more valuable than any relief pitcher could ever be, and if you don't think so you ought to have your vote revoked. Sometimes I hear these voters say things and I can't believe they actually have a vote.

Also, if I'm not mistaken, doesn't the MVP guidelines specifically say that voters are eligible? So if a voter decides that pitchers aren't fit for MVP awards, aren't they blatantly disregarding the voting guidelines?

That should be enough to revoke their vote IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think Miguel Cabrera is a more effective hitter than Adrian Gonzalez.

Still seems to be Bautista's to lose, but I wonder if Cabrera will start getting mentioned now? He's 5th in BR WAR ahead of Granderson. He's second in OPS+ behind Bautista. 3rd in BA behind Gonzalez and Young (which seems to be the main reason anyone has mentioned Gonzalez.) Seems like the things that make Gonzalez a contender should also make Cabrera a contender.

Edited by sagnam

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll go out on a limb and bet that Carbrera will end up no higher than fifth in the voting, behind Granderson, Gonzalez, Bautista and Ellsbury. He might even end up sixth behind Pedroia, or even seventh behind Verlander.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Michigan Sports Betting Offer

Michigan is launching online sports betting and casino apps in January 2021. These top Michigan sportsbooks have pre-launch bonus offers. No deposit is required. Terms and conditions apply.

BetRivers Michigan - If you sign up at BetRivers Michigan now, you will receive $50 in free bets to use one their online sportsbook & casino

Click Here to claim $50 at BetRivers Michigan For Signing Up Now

FanDuel Michigan - If you register now before FanDuel launches in January, you will receive $100 to use at their sportsbook app & online casino.

Click Here to claim $100 at FanDuel Michigan For Registering Now

BetMGM Michigan - If you sign up early at BetMGM Michigan before launch, you will receive $200 in free bets to use at their online casino & sportsbook

Click Here to claim $200 at BetRivers Michigan For Signing Up Early

   


×
×
  • Create New...