Jump to content

Recommended Posts

S&P down over 1% at 1,285 ATM. So I suppose wait till 1,250 and if we go below that, pull the ripcord and float down to money market land?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Depends on what you are holding. I would look at the individual stocks. Watch the S&P at the 200 day moving average around the 1260ish mark. It may bounce off that as well, but nobody knows. There isn't much economic news this week either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What was it that Chairsatan Bernanke said this afternoon that made this happen?

z?s=%5eIXIC&t=1d&q=l&l=on&z=l&p=s&a=v&p=s〈=en-US&region=US

Ahhhh!!!!!ha. That's the how many billion dollar question.

It's not what he said, it's what he didn't say. Think Ponzi.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OK, so, the markets are a Ponzi scheme. What's the action item? God, gold and guns?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 600 billion they committed last year at Jackson Hole fueled this market to where it is since that meeting. They have pumped about 100 billion a month through QE2, which is running out this month.

No hint of further printing at this time, the market didn't like it. In the end, they will print more money one way or another. It's like (is) a Ponzi scheme. If they quit printing it's all going to blow up. Not a question of if, but when.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the Pragmatic Capitalist:

BERNANKE: I DIDN’T DO IT!

7 JUNE 2011 BY CULLEN ROCHE 0 COMMENTS

Ben Bernanke spoke today at the International Monetary Conference in Atlanta. His speech was certainly market moving and as reports of the speech hit the wires the equity markets began to reverse on fears that QE3 is off the table.

But there was a more interesting tone in his speech today than we’ve seen in the past. The Chairman was exceptionally defensive. In fact, the entire speech is basically an explanation as to why QE2 did not hurt the economy.

(of course it did). The most important section is attached:

BERNANKE: I DIDN’T DO IT! | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One bloggers take on the speech but what was interesting (video in link at blog site) was the exchange between Bernanke and Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan. Strange.

Bernanke's Vices Continue (Speech Today) in [Market-Ticker]

As the blogger rightfully points out - Dimon is on the board of the NY Federal Reserve, as well as CEO of one of the largest and most powerful banks in the world – and they most likely have each other on speed dial. JP Morgan, according to congressional testimony has admitted to making trades for the Fed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Points 1&2 in today's IBD Top 10:

1. Bernanke Gives No QE3 Hint: The Fed chief said economic growth has been weaker than expected and labor conditions faltering. But Ben Bernanke said a moderate recovery continues and predicted growth will pick up later this year. He said monetary policy should remain accommodative, but gave no hint that he favors a 3rd round of quantitative easing.

2. Stocks Give Up Gains Late: The major averages faded in the final 100 minutes, closing near Tue.'s lows as Fed chief Ben Bernanke gave a dour economic view and no hints of new stimulus.

.....I'll skip the crack addict analogies here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OPEC’s summer spoiler

Commentary: A ‘no-decision’ meeting means no break at the pump

By MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Well, that was a waste of time.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, gathered in Vienna, agreed Wednesday to disagree on a new set of production quotas, which means they’re leaving them right where they are.

Oil prices jumped on the news, with the July crude futures contract heading back above $100 a barrel in New York. It wasn’t a big jump since it closed yesterday at $99.09. Read about the oil market's reaction.

But it was a huge blow to motorists, manufacturers and economists around the world hoping OPEC would somehow find it in their hearts to pump more oil into the market.

OPEC holds oil output steady in a decision that surprised oil markets and sent crude prices higher, OPEC officials said the group had failed to reach consensus to boost output.

For lots of people, this is personal. It means no big break from high gasoline prices. It means fewer miles in the car this summer, which means fewer trips to the store and fewer stays in motels, something retailers and the travel industry are painfully aware of. It also means net oil importers like the United States will continue to see crude blow a huge hole in its balance of trade, which crude keeps chronically out of balance. It also means no break any time soon from the higher energy prices stoking the cost of making and delivering everything from industrial turbines to pizza dough.

But seriously, what did we expect?

OPEC, since its inception in 1960, is notorious for its infighting. While several of the group’s 12 members, led by Saudi Arabia, worry that high oil prices will destroy demand and drive customers to other suppliers, they all need the money, especially those trying to buy peace in their realms by lavishing more petrodollars on citizens riled up by the so-called Arab Spring.

So for most OPEC members, $100 a barrel feels just about right. Even if the rest of the world hates it, they know they can get it.

There had been high hopes ahead of this latest meeting that OPEC would agree to bump up production and bring us a little relief at the pump. But what’s the likelihood emissaries for Libya’s besieged strongman Gadhafi, the arch-conservative Saudi King Abdullah and Iran’s firebrand President Ahmadinejad could agree on anything these days?

OPEC is seething with bitter rivalries and regional power struggles. Its history is shaped by battles between price hawks, price doves and members who routinely ignore their assigned production quotas.

Let’s face it. The only member of this dysfunctional “cartel” with any clout is Saudi Arabia, because the Saudis are the only ones with enough spare capacity to actually bump up output on short notice. And the Saudi oil minister just left the meeting in a huff, stymied by Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Libya and Venezuela’s refusal to raise output. At its core, this seven-member majority includes the same old gang of price hawks that has existed within OPEC for decades.

So while the rest of the world’s hopes were high ahead of OPEC’s latest meeting, expectations were pretty low. On that score, they didn’t disappoint. Who knows? Agreeing to do nothing might just be the best possible outcome.

This is the most important story of the day. Maybe for the year. Some believe the Saudi’s can’t raise production even if they wanted to.

Combine this with more Bernanke bucks and the outlook is…well…not good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
OPEC’s summer spoiler

This is the most important story of the day. Maybe for the year. Some believe the Saudi’s can’t raise production even if they wanted to.

Combine this with more Bernanke bucks and the outlook is…well…not good.

The Saudi's have claimed they can increase production for a long time, yet never do. I think the last time they said they will increase it was either after Egypt collapsed or maybe shortly after Libya was attacked. That was months ago... yet no increased production. People think they've overestimated their reserves by up to 40%. Can you say Peak Oil?

Russia is now a major oil producer and there is a major power shift happening with OPEC starting to crumble.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
MCDs hire were mostly part time I read somewhere. I also read somewhere, can't find it now, we are losing 40,000 jobs a month to China. Don't know how true that is, but our company ships everything possible there so I wouldn't be surprised.

It was on ZeroHedge someplace, I read it too.

Even worse, of all the growth areas, Americans are feeding themselves more fast food. Great.

I'm reading the Omnivore's Delimna (well listening to it on CD), man, it makes you not want to eat anything produced in this country. Scary stuff what we are putting into our bodies and doing to our land.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bill Gross still saying no QE3. Then right on the heals of that interview, news out of the Whitehouse that Obama is planning more fiscal stimulus. Payroll tax breaks as prt of a large tax cut package to boost the economy and stimulate job creation.

I don't want to turn this into a political thread, but this seems against Obama's overall message of increase taxes (on the $250k+ earners).

Then again, he needs to create jobs. I heard on the radio that no sitting president has been re-elected with unemployment over 7%, or something like that...

Here It Comes: Obama Considering Another Fiscal Stimulus | zero hedge

EDIT: Looks for equities to rally tomorrow on this rumor/news.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
He didn't announce/hint QE3???

He can't. He literally can't give hint of it. Not yet.

The debt ceiling has to be raised first. We don't have Capacity to do any more QE right now. We've already borrowed $80 billion from federal pension plans to fund the last month of government expenses. He has to wait until the debt ceiling is increased, which we know will happen inconjunction with the new budget that Rep/Dem will wrangle over until the last minute.

And he can't say that he intends to do more QE when the debt ceiling is raised, or give hint to it, because there will be people who object to it and it might jeopardize the ability to pass the budget and increase the ceiling.

So it's status quo for now from the Bernank. QE engines start to rev around Aug-Sept.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bill Gross still saying no QE3. Then right on the heals of that interview, news out of the Whitehouse that Obama is planning more fiscal stimulus. Payroll tax breaks as prt of a large tax cut package to boost the economy and stimulate job creation.

I don't want to turn this into a political thread, but this seems against Obama's overall message of increase taxes (on the $250k+ earners).

Then again, he needs to create jobs. I heard on the radio that no sitting president has been re-elected with unemployment over 7%, or something like that...

Here It Comes: Obama Considering Another Fiscal Stimulus | zero hedge

EDIT: Looks for equities to rally tomorrow on this rumor/news.

Payroll tax cuts won't create any jobs, just like the tax cuts at the end of the year (the Bush tax cuts) didn't create any jobs, just like the stimulus didn't create any jobs, just like nothing they have done has created any jobs.

You can't create jobs when the plan is to cut jobs, or ship them to third world countries because it's cheaper, and those countries have potential for growth (hence; you invest there). We have run out of easy credit and cheap oil, everyone from the Joe6pack to .gov is broke. Jobs are not coming back, and they know it - they just aren't saying so.

But desperation is starting to show. Desperate people do desperate things. Believe nothing they tell you, watch what they do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today's Official Jobless Claims

EMPLOYMENT AND TRAINING ADMINISTRATION

USDL 11-0851-NAT

Program Contact:

TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL IN THIS

Scott Gibbons (202) 693-3008

RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL

Tony Sznoluch (202) 693-3176

8:30 A.M. (EDT), THURSDAY

Media Contact :

June 9, 2011

(202) 693-4676

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending June 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 427,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 426,000. The 4-week moving average was 424,000, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 426,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent for the week ending May 28, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 28 was 3,676,000, a decrease of 71,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,747,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,719,250, a decrease of 29,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,748,250.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 364,507 in the week ending June 4, a decrease of 16,990 from the previous week. There were 398,864 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.7 percent during the week ending May 28, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,407,607, a decrease of 102,900 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.3 percent and the volume was 4,202,202.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending May 21 was 7,601,344, a decrease of 89,233 from the previous week.

Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and West Virginia, during the week ending May 21.

Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 2,142 in the week ending May 28, an increase of 483 from the prior week. There were 2,316 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 99 from the preceding week.

There were 23,335 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending May 21, a decrease of 150 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 36,261, a decrease of 478 from the prior week.

States reported 3,372,090 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending May 21, a decrease of 45,515 from the prior week. There were 4,987,711 claimants in the comparable week in 2010. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending May 21 were in Alaska (5.0 percent), Puerto Rico (4.4), Oregon (4.0), California (3.9), Pennsylvania (3.9), Nevada (3.6), Connecticut (3.5), New Jersey (3.5), Illinois (3.3), and Rhode Island (3.3).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 28 were in New York (+3,187), Oregon (+1,508), Missouri (+1,158), Illinois (+1,081), Washington (+844), while the largest decreases were in California (-1,614), Wisconsin (-1,032), Massachusetts (-929), New Jersey(-882) and Texas (-659).

More at link

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Makes sense that some job growth would be exported due to overseas emerging economies. Probably haven't spent enough time studying stock and ETF opportunities there. Catepillar is one stock that has done well recently but seems to be in a correction like the rest of the market.

Where are the jobs? For many companies, overseas - Yahoo! Finance

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Then again.......

Outgoing Hong Kong Securities Regulator Head: 'China Is the New Dot-Com' - WSJ.com

By KATE O'KEEFFE, JEFFREY NG and PETER STEIN

HONG KONG—The outgoing head of Hong Kong's securities regulator warned investors against rushing headlong to buy shares in Chinese companies, calling China "the new dot-com" of the investment world.

"Everybody wants a piece of China," Martin Wheatley said in an interview on his final day as chief executive officer of the Securities and Futures Commission. "Therefore, there has been a rush to Chinese companies" without investors asking the normal questions about their fundamentals, he said, comparing the run-up to the Internet stock boom of the late 1990s in the U.S.

The comments by Mr. Wheatley come amid scrutiny of accounting practices and allegations of fraud at some overseas-listed Chinese businesses. The Securities and Exchange Commission has set up a group to investigate problems with a number of Chinese companies that trade on U.S. exchanges. Trading in several stocks of U.S.-listed Chinese companies has been suspended amid allegations of accounting irregularities and other improprieties.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Payroll tax cuts won't create any jobs, just like the tax cuts at the end of the year (the Bush tax cuts) didn't create any jobs, just like the stimulus didn't create any jobs, just like nothing they have done has created any jobs.

You can't create jobs when the plan is to cut jobs, or ship them to third world countries because it's cheaper, and those countries have potential for growth (hence; you invest there). We have run out of easy credit and cheap oil, everyone from the Joe6pack to .gov is broke. Jobs are not coming back, and they know it - they just aren't saying so.

But desperation is starting to show. Desperate people do desperate things. Believe nothing they tell you, watch what they do.

Oh I agree, it's too little too late. It's good for a bump in the market, and might slightly boost consumer spending for a short while. That's about it. I don't see it creating any new jobs, not enough to matter anyways.

Just pointing out that this is the next bullet the government intends to use, which is not surprising as they can't do any further QE right now, and Obama can probably get Republicans on board with tax cuts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Then again.......

Outgoing Hong Kong Securities Regulator Head: 'China Is the New Dot-Com' - WSJ.com

By KATE O'KEEFFE, JEFFREY NG and PETER STEIN

HONG KONG—The outgoing head of Hong Kong's securities regulator warned investors against rushing headlong to buy shares in Chinese companies, calling China "the new dot-com" of the investment world.

"Everybody wants a piece of China," Martin Wheatley said in an interview on his final day as chief executive officer of the Securities and Futures Commission. "Therefore, there has been a rush to Chinese companies" without investors asking the normal questions about their fundamentals, he said, comparing the run-up to the Internet stock boom of the late 1990s in the U.S.

The comments by Mr. Wheatley come amid scrutiny of accounting practices and allegations of fraud at some overseas-listed Chinese businesses. The Securities and Exchange Commission has set up a group to investigate problems with a number of Chinese companies that trade on U.S. exchanges. Trading in several stocks of U.S.-listed Chinese companies has been suspended amid allegations of accounting irregularities and other improprieties.

I don't want a piece of China, but that's me. And I like what Jim Rogers says, and I know he's a believer in Chinese stocks, but I think there's too much risk in this right now. Well, risk everywhere, so my philosophy with equities is to stick with what you know well and stick with very specific companies that have a story or staying power.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
NEW YORK (AP) -- Saudi Arabia's still the boss when it comes to oil.

The world's biggest oil exporter plans to increase production to 10 million barrels per day, the highest level in 30 years, according to a Saudi Arabian newspaper. Analysts see this as a bold step by the Saudis to reassert their dominance over OPEC after the 12-member group this week denied its request to increase production.

"They're reminding everyone who the sheriff is in town," independent analyst Jim Ritterbusch said.

Saudi Arabia production boost sends oil lower - Yahoo! Finance

Yeah, yeah. Saudi's to increase oil output. It would be nice if they could, and we hear this whenever they want something from us, but the fact remains that they aren't able to produce more. This is proven time and time again, when they never increase production after they tell everyone that they are.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Barron's Mid Year Roundtable....lengthy but well worth the read IMHO:

Barron's Mid-Year Investment Roundtable - Barrons.com

'Rarely has the backdrop been so lousy. The U.S. is printing money to pay its bills. Europe is coughing up change to pay the neighbors' bills. Oil prices are climbing as the Middle East burns, and gold, that reliable barometer of fear, is rising almost by the day. And yet. American companies are flush with cash. Corporate revenue is growing, profit margins are widening, and stocks -- especially big ones with juicy dividends -- are relatively cheap.

That delicious irony hasn't been lost on the members of the Barron's Roundtable, whose opinions we rounded up by telephone in the past week or so. In view of the alternatives, chiefly negligible bond yields, U.S. stocks just might be "the best house in a decent neighborhood," as Oscar Schafer observed.

The Roundtable crew is unanimous in seeing slower economic growth in the year's second half. As a result, these money managers and market savants have turned notably more defensive since our annual get-together in January at the Harvard Club of New York. These days they are far fonder of consumer-staples, health-care and utility stocks than the shares of companies that make things that rust in the rain.

Our panelists have their eye on the near term, when we'll inevitably muddle along, and on the long term, when economic calamity could befall us if the nation doesn't first mend its profligate ways. How to do so is apt to be the subject of increasingly urgent discourse as 2011 rolls into 2012 and the presidential election.'

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...