Jump to content

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, tiger337 said:

No, it does not apply equally and Epstein has benefited from that system for years.  It finally caught up to him, but he'll probably still get away with more than he should.  

Great ****ing system we have ain't it?  And this POS isn't the only one.

But lets keep voting and fighting over the same swine ****ing pigs to fix it.

American's are so ****ing stupid they can't even understand how ****ing stupid they really are.

Now we are into politics, and this is the investment thread.  I give myself a timeout.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We were busy complaining about Epstein and Screwball forgot to pass out the hats.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ugly.  Right?

Quote

Tesla long term debt from 2009 to 2019. Long term debt can be defined as the sum of all long term debt fields.

  • Tesla long term debt for the quarter ending March 31, 2019 was $9.788B, a 11.69% increase year-over-year.
  • Tesla long term debt for 2018 was $9.404B, a 0.16% decline from 2017.
  • Tesla long term debt for 2017 was $9.418B, a 60.2% increase from 2016.
  • Tesla long term debt for 2016 was $5.879B, a 184.24% increase from 2015.

Yet people love this stock.

Quote

Netflix long term debt from 2006 to 2019. Long term debt can be defined as the sum of all long term debt fields.

  • Netflix long term debt for the quarter ending March 31, 2019 was $10.305B, a 57.51% increase year-over-year.
  • Netflix long term debt for 2018 was $10.36B, a 59.4% increase from 2017.
  • Netflix long term debt for 2017 was $6.499B, a 93.19% increase from 2016.
  • Netflix long term debt for 2016 was $3.364B, a 41.87% increase from 2015.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They will love it till they don't. That day will come. It's not a matter of if, but when.  This isn't a new movie (no pun intended), and we've watched it before.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/16/2019 at 12:52 PM, screwball said:

Yea, the hats are in the mail.

Can I get a refund on my hat? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Euphdude said:

Can I get a refund on my hat? 

It's worth more now.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the apocalypse put on hold, the market opened up a little this morning. 

let's see if it makes it through the day.

I'm leaning toward further reducing my exposure either way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It seems to me That this president and his administration are manipulating the stock market. When they see things go badly, they change their mind about what’s under tariff and what isn’t. And then the market goes back up. Who’s to say that some loudmouths in this administration don’t call and tip off their friends that “tomorrow we’re going to change the list”of which companies/goods are subject to tariffs and therefore allow their friends to make a killing on the market.

Manipulation >>>> inside information >>>>> $$$$$

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have little doubt Wall Street and the Trump Administration are in cahoots.  Wall Street may hate Trump's trade wars, but they would rather have him in the White House than any Dem, and they will do what they can to help him get re-elected.

Now that I'm done breaking the rule about not talking politics in the Investing thread, you may go about your business. 👍

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, screwball said:

What did the Orange menace do today for this selloff?

Asking for a friend.

He's trying to make sure you don't profit from your S&P 500 "3,000" hats.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, screwball said:

What did the Orange menace do today for this selloff?

Asking for a friend.

Today? There has been enough damage to the long term outlook done in the last two yrs to make the yield on the 10yr drop 40 basis pts  to 1.68 in two weeks. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

image.thumb.png.ff342989744d52f505c50134a03cb698.png

Looks like a long term trend to me.  I know, I know, in today's world everything has to be Trump and Russia's fault.  And I'm sure that decline between 2008 and 2016 wasn't St. Barry's fault.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, screwball said:

image.thumb.png.ff342989744d52f505c50134a03cb698.png

Looks like a long term trend to me.  I know, I know, in today's world everything has to be Trump and Russia's fault.  And I'm sure that decline between 2008 and 2016 wasn't St. Barry's fault.

It's not his fault and it's not Obama's fault.  Neither has much to do with the "booming" economy either.  The one thing that Trump affects is the short-term ups and downs caused by his tweets, but I don't think he has much affect long-term.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, screwball said:

image.thumb.png.ff342989744d52f505c50134a03cb698.png

Looks like a long term trend to me.  I know, I know, in today's world everything has to be Trump and Russia's fault.  And I'm sure that decline between 2008 and 2016 wasn't St. Barry's fault.

things were pretty stable from about 2011 till recently. You can see the long false upturn too soon where BushII blew up the settling trend leading to the crash. If you want to take that all the way back to WWII, long term rates in the 3-4% range were often when things were stable. Or in other words, we were finally reaching a point were some stability might have been possible after the inflation run-away of the 60-70's and we are already going to blow it again. I guess there is no cure for the mismatch between 30yr borrowing and 2yr Congressional terms. The Pols always feel the need to try to move thing faster than they can be moved. Like the pig in the python, it does take 30 yrs for all those bonds sold in the 80's at >10% to finally stop having their effect.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think there is a booming economy.  The indicators do not prove as much IMO.  What we do have is a giant bubble.  A bubble that has been growing for quite some time.  Yes, headlines (or tweets) are creating volatility (thanks in part to HAL 9000), which is a sign of a sick unstable market.  That is exactly what happens when said market is over extended, overbought, and a giant bubble is in the process of bursting. 

I have posted this before.  Do we not see something odd  here?

image.thumb.jpeg.dcd7f3bc5fb416ba15c46ee414fe641c.jpeg

The S&P 500 from a little before 1990.  The dot-com bubble is right above the word "before" and the "great financial" (call it what you want) crisis of 2008/2009 is above the word "bubble" in the first line of this paragraph.

What the **** is going on after that?  A rocket shot above the previous two bubbles that burst.  The dot-com peaked at 1552 and the GFC at 1576.  Not long ago we went through 3000.  Yipee!  The S&P 3000 hats weren't on our heads very long were they?  In that period of time (time frame of the chart), we also had two major crashes, or did we forget that?  Yes, some have it seems.

Since 1980-1990, I don't care which, interest rates have went from top left to lower right.  Downward.  Which means money, or maybe I should say debt, became cheaper.  That allowed the serfs to borrow money at cheaper and cheaper rates.  Great, that's prosperity.  Or maybe not.

As Carlin might say "we can buy more things we don't need with money we don't have" because the cost of debt is cheap.  It's almost to the point of free money.  That's great, right?  Ask the banks, they get cheaper money than we do. <giggle>  Sure, there is some ups and downs in the interest rate over the last 30 years but the trend is down.  That is by design.  True market forces are not in control, and haven't been for quite sometime.  We are getting ****ed, but cheap money (debt) keeps the serfs happy cause they can continue to buy **** with cheap money.

That will, at some point, come to an end.  And it won't be pretty.  We may be getting close.  You can see from that chart, the volatility is getting stronger.  Is that a sign of a "topping" process?  Perhaps.  For the stat guys - reversion to the mean - is inevitable.  Where is the mean?  It sure as **** ain't 3000 on the S&P.  Maybe not even 2000, or even 1500.  Nobody knows, but it will correct.  That is a given.

When it does, the financial wizards of the world will do what they always do - cut interest rates.

Stimulus, they will call it.  That's what will be for dinner.  It always is.

The Fed just did a "mid-cycle" adjustment not long ago by cutting 1/4 percent (with the market all all time highs and unemployment at 10 year lows (WFT was up with that?)).  Which gives them around 2 1/4 percent to cut until they get to the zero bound level.  Then what?  All that is left is to go negative interest rates.  Think that ain't possible?  Think again.

Funny, I ran across a couple articles about that just today.  One from a well known financial terrorist (swine ******* that he is). He is one of the pricks partly to blame for the bubbles we see today;

Ex-Fed boss Greenspan says ‘there is no barrier’ to Treasury yields falling below zero - MarketWatch

**** you ****face, for the record.

And for ****s and grins, this women is kind of nuts, but she writes funny, and is spot on in her analysis (which is what matters anyway) even if hated in some political circles.  Posted today, but parts were written in 2012 and 2014.

#Toldya : Negative Interest Rates; Highway to a Cashless, Statist ****

As usual, one must ask of negative rates - Cui bono?

Well, the wankin' ****in' bankers of course.  The people who really run the world.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, screwball said:

I don't think there is a booming economy.  The indicators do not prove as much IMO.  What we do have is a giant bubble.  A bubble that has been growing for quite some time.  Yes, headlines (or tweets) are creating volatility (thanks in part to HAL 9000), which is a sign of a sick unstable market.  That is exactly what happens when said market is over extended, overbought, and a giant bubble is in the process of bursting. 

I have posted this before.  Do we not see something odd  here?

image.thumb.jpeg.dcd7f3bc5fb416ba15c46ee414fe641c.jpeg

The S&P 500 from a little before 1990.  The dot-com bubble is right above the word "before" and the "great financial" (call it what you want) crisis of 2008/2009 is above the word "bubble" in the first line of this paragraph.

What the **** is going on after that? 

 

at a purely macro level, I think the answer is in the interest chart. It was coming out of the 2009 crash that returns on fixed income really dropped to a level that I think was just not psychologically acceptable to investors conditioned to decades of good bond returns driven by inflation from earlier decades. So more and more money basically started chasing the same stocks, not only because low interest rates justified higher P/E ratios, and because margin money was cheaper, but also just because there were/are too many dollars looking for returns that were not there to be found. And of course that is the beauty of the equity market, as long as people keep chasing it it will keep going up and showing them returns, even if there is no corporate asset or income growth or national economic health to justify it. And while you would have thought that domestic investor flight from bonds would cause long term yields to go  back up and create better balance, foreign money seeking safe haven (Arab and Chinese) helps keep Treasury yields and thus long term US interest rates, low. 

So I agree with you that US stocks are overvalued, but we are all trapped by the 'greater fool' theory. No-one knows how long they can sustain being overvalued and no-one wants to be the first one out and lose potential gains.

(I may have just persuaded myself to sell more tomorrow morning......:silly:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Speaking of debt;

image.thumb.png.a51cca7dc0567dc7cbddf96bbabf0ca8.png

What's the Average U.S. Credit Card Debt by Income and Age in 2019?

Average Credit Card Debt in America: August 2019

And a little more on the insanity of the BS artist known as Greenspan - from Mish;

"Zero Has No Meaning" Says Greenspan: I Disagree, So Does Gold

I know the word gold blows some heads up, but it is an indicator.  The article does show "The Maestro" is once again, full of ****.  He is 93, so maybe dementia has set in.

**** you Alan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      96,585
    • Total Posts
      2,902,620
  • Who's Online (See full list)

  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
×
×
  • Create New...