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13 hours ago, screwball said:

I think drone delivery is a pipe dream (even considering physics ūüôā) but plays well in the media

So much this.  

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2 hours ago, Deleterious said:

So much this.  

Indeed, it's no new thing for Corps to play PR games to increase buzz and bid up stock prices. Back in heyday of the big 3 auto world, we would watch to see which press releases were done in NY vs Detroit. Most of what was released in NY was fluff or worse, what was news locally was much closer to reality because the local press (in those days) was harder to snow, they all had their own sources inside the business. Very much the same in tech. Very few news orgs ever had the personnel to provide reality checking on technology stories and as news departments continue to get hollowed out it only gets worse. 

I see the equivalent of perpetual motion machine stories pass in the press all the time today.

The other thing that happens in a software centric world is that SW techs guy don't necessarily know the constraints that lie outside their field. Getting the programming right is such a big task that other stuff outside that field - like material and energy constraints - the 'old science' stuff, doesn't get thought about until after the hype is already at full tilt. 

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It's not even that complicated; look at the logistics alone.  I read an article on how AMZN was approaching this "drone delivery" thing.  They identified a statistical market that fit the ability of delivery using drones; going with the Cliff's Notes version.

Ok, fine.

Prove it, and show me in your next 8K how that went.

Trees, power lines, distance (is AMZN going to ship a laptop (what kind of a drone would you need to deliver that? - and what on the return trip?)) to Cornhole?  Free shipping?  Don't know.  And then you have a bunch of crazy people who want to skeet shoot.

The world sure is interesting.

 

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1 hour ago, screwball said:

It's not even that complicated; look at the logistics alone.  I read an article on how AMZN was approaching this "drone delivery" thing.  They identified a statistical market that fit the ability of delivery using drones; going with the Cliff's Notes version.

Ok, fine.

Prove it, and show me in your next 8K how that went.

Trees, power lines, distance (is AMZN going to ship a laptop (what kind of a drone would you need to deliver that? - and what on the return trip?)) to Cornhole?  Free shipping?  Don't know.  And then you have a bunch of crazy people who want to skeet shoot.

The world sure is interesting.

 

They are going to ship your pot in a drone.  Don't shoot it!

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12 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

They are going to ship your pot in a drone.  Don't shoot it!

A pot delivery (for Joe Sixpack ) wouldn't take a very big drone.  Hope they don't price by weight.

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

They are going to ship your pot in a drone.  Don't shoot it!

Put that Pot on a drone, and screw your delivery, it will just fly off somewhere it can get some cheetos.

  • Haha 1

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22 hours ago, tiger337 said:

They are going to ship your pot in a drone.  Don't shoot it!

But what happens when the drones leave something on his doorstep and something steals it

Ive been working customer service for a mail order company for the last year. Ive begun to believe that mailbox/porch theft is the number one problem in the Cornholes of America 

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15 minutes ago, CMRivdog said:

But what happens when the drones leave something on his doorstep and something steals it

Ive been working customer service for a mail order company for the last year. Ive begun to believe that mailbox/porch theft is the number one problem in the Cornholes of America 

We had quite the scam going on here in Cornhole just before last Christmas.  As we found out later (they got busted) a couple (man/wife/girlfriend (don't know)) were following the delivery trucks (both UPS and FDX))), then stealing the goods off the porch.  My boy was one of the victims, ironically (he got his stuff back).

I have security cameras.  I put a dummy box on the porch to see if I could get a bite.  No luck.  Damn.

They leave stuff on my porch all the the time. I usually don't worry, but this is Cornhole.

***

I'll bet you a dollar to a donut these drones are doing more than delivering "**** we don't need, bought with money we don't have" to our front door.¬† Orwell would be proud. ūüôā

 

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Drone delivery is inevitable.  Maybe not in the next couple years but it is coming.  I do not get an Orwell type feel for drone delivery at all.  When it costs less to deliver that way they will.

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19 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

It is inevitable except there are significant physics challenges that are not easy to overcome.

Yes.

For one thing, my Chewy pet stuff delivery box weighs a ton... no way a drone is going to be dropping that on my doorstep.

 

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1 hour ago, John_Brian_K said:

Drone delivery is inevitable.  Maybe not in the next couple years but it is coming.  I do not get an Orwell type feel for drone delivery at all.  When it costs less to deliver that way they will.

Put your tin foil hat on JBK. ūüôā

A first look at Amazon’s new delivery drone - Techcrunch

FTA:

Quote

The new drone can fly up to 15 miles and carry packages that weigh up to five pounds.

 

Quote

To see what‚Äôs happening around it, the new drone uses a number of sensors and machine learning models ‚ÄĒ all running independently ‚ÄĒ that constantly monitor the drone‚Äôs flight envelope (which, thanks to its unique shape and controls, is far more flexible than that of a regular drone) and environment. These include regular camera images and infrared cameras to get a view of its surroundings. There are multiple sensors on all sides of the aircraft so that it can spot things that are far away, like an oncoming aircraft, as well as objects that are close, when the drone is landing, for example.


 

Quote

 

The drone also uses various machine learning models to, for example, detect other air traffic around it and react accordingly, or to detect people in the landing zone or to see a line over it (which is a really hard problem to solve, given that lines tend to be rather hard to detect). To do this, the team uses photogrammetrical models, segmentation models and neural networks. ‚ÄúWe probably have the state of the art algorithms in all of these domains,‚ÄĚ Kimchi argued.


 

 

Quote

The team also uses a technique known as Visual Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (VSLAM), which helps the drone build a map of its current environment, even when it doesn’t have any other previous information about a location or any GPS information.

 

Quote

To get to this point, the team actually used an AI system to evaluate more than 50,000 different configurations. Just the computational fluid dynamics simulations took up 30 million hours of AWS compute time (it‚Äôs good to own a large cloud when you want to build a novel, highly optimized drone, it seems). The team also ran millions of simulations, of course, with all of the sensors, and looked at all of the possible positions and sensor ranges ‚ÄĒ and even different lenses for the cameras ‚ÄĒ to find an optimal solution. ‚ÄúThe optimization is what is the right, diverse set of sensors and how they are configured on the aircraft,‚ÄĚ Kimchi noted. ‚ÄúYou always have both redundancy and diversity, both from the physical domain ‚ÄĒ sonar versus photons ‚ÄĒ and the algorithmic domain.‚ÄĚ

All this money to develop a drone that can carry 5 pounts 7 1/2 miles (one way delivery, 15 mile range).

Really?

Sounds like a miniature spy plane to me.  Where's my 12 guage?

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

It is inevitable except there are significant physics challenges that are not easy to overcome.

IDK, it's one of those solutions in search of a problem. It's been maybe 75 yrs since the the flying car was 'inevitable', we are essentially no closer. It's not because the tech doesn't exist to do it, you see new proposed platforms for personal flight almost on an annual basis. It's because when you break down the actual components, costs and value of the task, putting the vehicle in the air still makes no economic or logistical sense. I'll stick with my previous point - what amazon needs is a driverless delivery medium, not a flying one. Drones are only under discussion because it is thought that is the quickest route to autonomy, but I think that is a questionable assumption. 

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25 minutes ago, screwball said:

Put your tin foil hat on JBK. ūüôā

A first look at Amazon’s new delivery drone - Techcrunch

FTA:

 


 

 

 

All this money to develop a drone that can carry 5 pounts 7 1/2 miles (one way delivery, 15 mile range).

Really?

Sounds like a miniature spy plane to me.  Where's my 12 guage?

That is the start of it...very small.  Eventually people will be wondering why we had trucks delivering products at all.

As far as the cameras are concerned.  The tech is here and it is here to stay.  I am getting used to it.  I just hope the tech horror shows like Black Mirror do not become reality in my kids lifetime.  Which I doubt they do.  When I am turning to dust in the ground I will have no stake in what the kids of 2150 will be used to in terms of surveillance etc.

It is what it is.  No use in getting all hot and bothered about it IMO.

I did a bunch of research about air rights a few years ago when I was seriously considering making an air pad in my backyard and buying a helicopter and taking off/landing from my backyard.  And I actually think there was another reason for the research, but I forgot it.

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23 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

IDK, it's one of those solutions in search of a problem. It's been maybe 75 yrs since the the flying car was 'inevitable', we are essentially no closer. It's not because the tech doesn't exist to do it, you see new proposed platforms for personal flight almost on an annual basis. It's because when you break down the actual components, costs and value of the task, putting the vehicle in the air still makes no economic or logistical sense. I'll stick with my previous point - what amazon needs is a driverless delivery medium, not a flying one. Drones are only under discussion because it is thought that is the quickest route to autonomy, but I think that is a questionable assumption. 

It is all about cost and infrastructure.  When they come up with a low flying grid, boundaries, monitoring etc the drone deliveries by air will be a common thing.  I have zero idea how long that will all take to work, but I  know it needs to start somewhere.  Henry Ford did not wait until roads were built before he started mass producing his vehicles.

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3 minutes ago, John_Brian_K said:

That is the start of it...very small.  Eventually people will be wondering why we had trucks delivering products at all.

As far as the cameras are concerned.  The tech is here and it is here to stay.  I am getting used to it.  I just hope the tech horror shows like Black Mirror do not become reality in my kids lifetime.  Which I doubt they do.  When I am turning to dust in the ground I will have no stake in what the kids of 2150 will be used to in terms of surveillance etc.

It is what it is.  No use in getting all hot and bothered about it IMO.

I did a bunch of research about air rights a few years ago when I was seriously considering making an air pad in my backyard and buying a helicopter and taking off/landing from my backyard.  And I actually think there was another reason for the research, but I forgot it.

wut?

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19 minutes ago, John_Brian_K said:

  I have zero idea how long that will all take to work, but I  know it needs to start somewhere.  Henry Ford did not wait until roads were built before he started mass producing his vehicles.

Not exactly analogous. Roads, even paved roads, had existed as far back as the Roman Empire. One the things that made the transition to the automobile as easy as it was it that it did operate on the existing infrastructure. The wheeled carriage and freight wagon already were in everyday use, the transition was only the subtraction of the horse(s) and the addition of 'filling stations' -- as they were quaintly called back in the day. It is much easier to evolve an infrastructure than replace it, so the more evolutionary the change the more advantage a technology has. We could rebuild all the roads in the US with embedded guide wires which would be technically a vastly better solution than using incredibly complex machine vision and radar sensing to keep a car in a lane on the freeway, but I doubt we will.

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19 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Not exactly analogous. Roads, even paved roads, had existed as far back as the Roman Empire. One the things that made the transition to the automobile as easy as it was it that it did operate on the existing infrastructure. The wheeled carriage and freight wagon already were in everyday use, the transition was only the subtraction of the horse(s) and the addition of 'filling stations' -- as they were quaintly called back in the day. It is much easier to evolve an infrastructure than replace it, so the more evolutionary the change the more advantage a technology has. We could rebuild all the roads in the US with embedded guide wires which would be technically a vastly better solution than using incredibly complex machine vision and radar sensing to keep a car in a lane on the freeway, but I doubt we will.

Nothing is exact.  Just stating the obvious, that tech will evolve and needs to start somewhere.  I highly doubt they wait for the infrastructure before they start pushing the tech, but that really only applies if the bean counters decide it will be cheaper.  That is what drives the whole thing.

And not to pick nits, but the first paved roads in the USA were about 38 years before the model T, but were not mainstream enough to call it an infrastructure.  Paved roads in ancient roman times are not really analogous to the discussion.  The first cemented roads were a year or 2 after the introduction of the vehicle and popped up in the same city the vehicle was constructed.

But if we are going to use paved roads in other countries as a counter argument we can use air traffic control in the current times and the current location as a point to bolster the argument that it already has the beginnings of an infrastructure.

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9 minutes ago, John_Brian_K said:

Nothing is exact.  Just stating the obvious, that tech will evolve and needs to start somewhere.  I highly doubt they wait for the infrastructure before they start pushing the tech, but that really only applies if the bean counters decide it will be cheaper.  That is what drives the whole thing.

And not to pick nits, but the first paved roads in the USA were about 38 years before the model T, but were not mainstream enough to call it an infrastructure.  Paved roads in ancient roman times are not really analogous to the discussion.  The first cemented roads were a year or 2 after the introduction of the vehicle and popped up in the same city the vehicle was constructed.

But if we are going to use paved roads in other countries as a counter argument we can use air traffic control in the current times and the current location as a point to bolster the argument that it already has the beginnings of an infrastructure.

The T didn't require paved roads and a lot of them probably spent a big part of their lives on dirt. Paving was required more by the increase in traffic that came with mass adoption. It was the after effect.

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1 hour ago, John_Brian_K said:

That is the start of it...very small.  Eventually people will be wondering why we had trucks delivering products at all.

As far as the cameras are concerned.  The tech is here and it is here to stay.  I am getting used to it.  I just hope the tech horror shows like Black Mirror do not become reality in my kids lifetime.  Which I doubt they do.  When I am turning to dust in the ground I will have no stake in what the kids of 2150 will be used to in terms of surveillance etc.

It is what it is.  No use in getting all hot and bothered about it IMO.

I did a bunch of research about air rights a few years ago when I was seriously considering making an air pad in my backyard and buying a helicopter and taking off/landing from my backyard.  And I actually think there was another reason for the research, but I forgot it.

Mosquito_Air_Ultralight_Helicopter_001.j

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23 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Mosquito_Air_Ultralight_Helicopter_001.j

Image result for cheap personal helicopters

This is the style I was looking at back then.  I got far enough into the idea that I actually started telling people about it because it has been a dream of mine and I thought I was going to pull the trigger on lessons.  I had it all figured out until I didn't.  lol

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How many remember these?

Popular_Mechanics_November_1988-350x490.

That was 1988.  I wanted one too. I think we watched too many episodes of the Jetsons.

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2 hours ago, John_Brian_K said:

Image result for cheap personal helicopters

This is the style I was looking at back then.  I got far enough into the idea that I actually started telling people about it because it has been a dream of mine and I thought I was going to pull the trigger on lessons.  I had it all figured out until I didn't.  lol

Those little death traps scare me to death. I remember the death of a traffic reporter in Richmond, Va in the early 70s. I think the crash was attributed to cold weather and possible pilot error (backup who probably shouldn’t be flying that morning). The chopper crashed into a house IIRC and killed a couple of people. 

If Huey were still around he would probably correct me. I spent a great deal of my traffic reporter life in a fixed wing, if something went wrong you had a chance to glide a bit to find a landing spot. But then again I never liked flying much in the Jet Rangers either.

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1 hour ago, screwball said:

How many remember these?

Popular_Mechanics_November_1988-350x490.

That was 1988.  I wanted one too. I think we watched too many episodes of the Jetsons.

This is a test, but I'll add something anyway.  I'm having trouble posting for some reason.  In another thread when I quote someone and add text, I end up with a screen telling me my search didn't find anything.  Strange.

Anyway, when I was younger, before this 1988 version of Popular Mechanics came out, they had issues on how guys built their own single seat gyrocopters.  That was before this issue.  Some guys in a neighboring town actually did build a couple.  I remember seeing them flying around when we went that way.   So they at least worked.  I don't remember when that was, but a long time ago.

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