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Pay off debt. But that's just me.

Most of that is paid...minus the big ones and I pay extra on those every month to get them down. I am just looking to save the same amount we were before, but are limited in how much we can put in retirement accounts. Annuities? Mutual funds? Are there other options I am not seeing? I am not a guru with money. I save into IRA's and until last week had a ton going into a 401-k that is no longer available. Now I need to figure out where to put that extra 401-k money.

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Crude Earl with a low 31 handle. $26.74 the next stop?

I won 2 bucks on a Rolling Cash 5 yesterday. Going to parlay that into a Powerball ticket. Booyah!!!!!

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Maybe you could call up Christopher Cox and see if that money you have is enough to buy commodities without actually having to pay the full purchase price. Pay only 5% of the actual commodity price and write the rest off as an IOU. You know, like he let hedge fund investors do when he was SEC chairmen.

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It is not about the money already in the 401-k...that is getting rolled over directly. I just want to keep saving the same amount right away. It is money that came out automatically so I budgeted around it...once it starts going into the general fund it will be harder to set it aside for saving.

Is an annuity the way to go?

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You can always just keep jamming it in your IRA at the mere cost of a 6% government excise tax! Because saving for your retirement is important, but saving for other peoples is even better.

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It is not about the money already in the 401-k...that is getting rolled over directly. I just want to keep saving the same amount right away. It is money that came out automatically so I budgeted around it...once it starts going into the general fund it will be harder to set it aside for saving.

Is an annuity the way to go?

I max a traditional IRA. I'm not eligible for a Roth. Then anything else I want to invest gets dumped into a taxable Vanguard account where I buy mutual funds. I don't use it, but Vanguard has an option to automatically withdraw money from your bank account every week, two weeks, or once a month. Something like that.

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Maybe you could call up Christopher Cox and see if that money you have is enough to buy commodities without actually having to pay the full purchase price. Pay only 5% of the actual commodity price and write the rest off as an IOU. You know, like he let hedge fund investors do when he was SEC chairmen.

Let's go a step further (talking crude oil here, or energy products); many industries use energy, and trade their own stuff. Transportation is a good example. They use futures contracts (like farmers on crops) and also hedge their commitments. I think this is fine because they are buying a product.

What about all the people who are in the crude market that have no intent on ever taking delivery?

Even the retail investor, if via options, or ETFs in the energy space are betting on the price with no intent of ever taking one gallon, ton, or barrel of anything. ETFs are nothing but a derivative of the underlying commodity. Should that go on?

Then add in futures markets, more derivatives.... I don't remember the numbers from the last time I read them, but there is a huge spread between the amount of money invested vs what will be delivered.

The history of change is quite interesting.

This is along the same lines you are talking about. In the bigger picture leverage will once again blow up the markets.

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It is not about the money already in the 401-k...that is getting rolled over directly. I just want to keep saving the same amount right away. It is money that came out automatically so I budgeted around it...once it starts going into the general fund it will be harder to set it aside for saving.

Is an annuity the way to go?

I listen to Dave Ramsey alot.

His 7 baby steps go in order. This is a quick synopsis.

1. Save $1,000 in an emergency fund.

2. Pay off all debts except for your mortgage. If you have any debts pay them off 1st.

3. Save 3-6 months of expenses in an emergency account at the bank. That would likely be between $10,000 to $20,000.

4. Save 15% of your income in a 401k. I think you can always get a VanGuard account and put money in an IRA there?

5. Save money for your children's college if applicable.

6. Everything else throw at the home mortage.

7. You are well off. Save, give and have fun. Keep investing.

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I have steps 1-3 checked off.

I still have rolling credit cards but I pay them off every month. Ramsey would not approve and would want me to cut the cards but so far I cannot do so.

STEP 4 (15% invested)

I only put 12% in a 401k but this is hard to do... My workplace matches 7% for a total of 19%.

The year before last year I only put 3% into the 401k but decided to save heavily for retirement as I am over 40 years old now.

A little proud to have stuck it out for all of last year and now starting year 2.

STEP5

I only put $120 a month into my daughters 529 plan and she is 10 years old. I just started it last year but at least it is something. I figure I will be paying from this account or from my bank account so might as well save something now. Michigan State tuition alone is $13.000 per year EEP! So looks like Community College for the 1st 2 years which I figure is pretty much free considering the state college costs.

STEP 6... once you begin throwing all extra money at your house the ball is really rolling. If you pay off your home you free up thousands of dollars a year... maybe 10,000 or more. That will make you wealthy unless you spend like a drunk sailor. Your highest expenditure is gone.

By the way I was looking at retirement income. You pretty much pay no FICA tax (social security and 401k withdrawals have no FICA tax which takes 7.5% of everything from today's working paycheck. Income tax... you could easily pay 0 fed income tax as Social Security is not taxed unless you make over a certain amount of other income. If you have a Roth IRA you can use it to make sure you do not earn enough income to pay any federal tax. Pensions... no FICA on pensions. You do pay Michigan state tax on pensions thanks to Gov. Snyder... But I will not be paying 12% of my income into a 401k when I retire either. So the savings will be tremendous. They say you can live on 70% of your pre retirement income. I believe it. Unless you want to travel a few times a year. But if you retire at 62 that is one thing. If you wait to age 67 you may have 50% more cash saved. Each extra year you work the stash saved should go up a lot.

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Let's go a step further (talking crude oil here, or energy products); many industries use energy, and trade their own stuff. Transportation is a good example. They use futures contracts (like farmers on crops) and also hedge their commitments. I think this is fine because they are buying a product.

What about all the people who are in the crude market that have no intent on ever taking delivery?

Even the retail investor, if via options, or ETFs in the energy space are betting on the price with no intent of ever taking one gallon, ton, or barrel of anything. ETFs are nothing but a derivative of the underlying commodity. Should that go on?

Then add in futures markets, more derivatives.... I don't remember the numbers from the last time I read them, but there is a huge spread between the amount of money invested vs what will be delivered.

The history of change is quite interesting.

This is along the same lines you are talking about. In the bigger picture leverage will once again blow up the markets.

I am watching the ETF OIL lately. It is just plummeting. It does not follow the price of crude exactly because of the futures contract but seems like an interesting ETF to follow. Oil is $31 and change a barrel today. Looks like it could keep sliding into the upper 20s. But I doubt we will see gasoline at $1.50 a gallon forever. And the price should easily be marching lower to the $1.50 range with the precipitous drop in crude. A barrel of crude is 42 gallons so it costs 75 cents a gallon for crude right now. I am really thinking about buying the OIL ETF.

I am not dumb enough to buy UWTI which went from $3.00 to $2.30 in two or three days.

UWTI is an ETF that triples down on the price of oil rising.

It was at $40 a share earlier this year.

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I am watching the ETF OIL lately. It is just plummeting. It does not follow the price of crude exactly because of the futures contract but seems like an interesting ETF to follow. Oil is $31 and change a barrel today. Looks like it could keep sliding into the upper 20s. But I doubt we will see gasoline at $1.50 a gallon forever. And the price should easily be marching lower to the $1.50 range with the precipitous drop in crude. A barrel of crude is 42 gallons so it costs 75 cents a gallon for crude right now. I am really thinking about buying the OIL ETF.

I am not dumb enough to buy UWTI which went from $3.00 to $2.30 in two or three days.

UWTI is an ETF that triples down on the price of oil rising.

It was at $40 a share earlier this year.

I would sure as hell hope not. Triple levered ETF's are a fools game. But the standard USO or equivalent is still a derivative, so we're just a little bit pregnant. :-)

Let's think a little deeper. There are ways to play this oil trade without derivatives, and do so with less risk at the same time. Could there be beaten down energy companies, who even pay a decent dividend at the same time?

ETF's give the retail guy a great outlet to make some serious dough, but the risk is off the charts. You better be parked in front of your trading screens with a finger on the rip cord.

For someone young(er), some of these energy plays look pretty attractive at this point.

I guess that depends on where one thinks the whole deal is going. Where does energy fit in the short and long term? And what is your return horizon? It all depends on timing.

Commodities are a *****.

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I listen to Dave Ramsey alot.

His 7 baby steps go in order. This is a quick synopsis.

1. Save $1,000 in an emergency fund.

2. Pay off all debts except for your mortgage. If you have any debts pay them off 1st.

3. Save 3-6 months of expenses in an emergency account at the bank. That would likely be between $10,000 to $20,000.

4. Save 15% of your income in a 401k. I think you can always get a VanGuard account and put money in an IRA there?

5. Save money for your children's college if applicable.

6. Everything else throw at the home mortage.

7. You are well off. Save, give and have fun. Keep investing.

#3 would be closer to 35k for me. I have tried doing that, but I never get close.

I am trying to save 20% for me and 20% for my wife. You cannot save 20% if the max is 5500.00 every year. That is the problem with IRA's which is why 401-k's are so valuable. There is no cap on how much you can put in those. My wife is losing her 401-k...her new company may add it at some point in the future, but they are a new company and need to see how things go first.

I struggled to pay off all debt before we bought our current house. Saved up enough for the down payment and then all the remodeling and repairs happened. New kitchen, insulation, windows, pool, landscape, new power lawn equipment etc etc...I am pretty close to getting that all paid, but I do not forgo saving for paying that off...maybe that is not the 'correct' thing to do, but I know for ME that is the best thing.

I am just trying to figure out where to save that extra money...about 12k a year we are not going to be able to put into her 401-k anymore. My wife likes to travel and just seeing that money sitting in a savings account will make her want to use some of it to travel...next thing you know its all gone. If it is sitting in a 401-k...it is different because I can explain how much in penalty we will lose by taking it out.

Neither one of us come from families that ever had any money. It is hard to manage money when you are so used to just scraping by.

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#3 would be closer to 35k for me. I have tried doing that, but I never get close.

I am trying to save 20% for me and 20% for my wife. You cannot save 20% if the max is 5500.00 every year. That is the problem with IRA's which is why 401-k's are so valuable. There is no cap on how much you can put in those. My wife is losing her 401-k...her new company may add it at some point in the future, but they are a new company and need to see how things go first.

I struggled to pay off all debt before we bought our current house. Saved up enough for the down payment and then all the remodeling and repairs happened. New kitchen, insulation, windows, pool, landscape, new power lawn equipment etc etc...I am pretty close to getting that all paid, but I do not forgo saving for paying that off...maybe that is not the 'correct' thing to do, but I know for ME that is the best thing.

I am just trying to figure out where to save that extra money...about 12k a year we are not going to be able to put into her 401-k anymore. My wife likes to travel and just seeing that money sitting in a savings account will make her want to use some of it to travel...next thing you know its all gone. If it is sitting in a 401-k...it is different because I can explain how much in penalty we will lose by taking it out.

Neither one of us come from families that ever had any money. It is hard to manage money when you are so used to just scraping by.

I have 10 months of income saved in baby step 3. I know that is probably too high.

I am going to get a new roof put on this year and perhaps a newer car in the next year so I will pay cash for those and that will help put me near the appropriate savings level.

But if you are having trouble getting $35k in savings why can't you just stuff the money you were putting in your 401k in there until you hit the goal? I didn't realize the cap on the IRA is such a problem since I have some IRAs at Edward Jones in addition to my 401ks me and my wife have at work.

The last time I had debt was about 5 years ago when I paid off my wife's 4 year car loan. At 4% loan rate the bank was paying me a higher savings rate. But since then I paid cash for the last car which was $10.500. The smartest thing I ever did was refinace my home to a 15 year rate four years ago. I still have 11 years left on that loan but I think I can pay it off in 5 years if I can keep my savings rate high and start attacking it soon.

You have a point on the money sitting in savings being spent. My problem is I don't spend it and it earns very little interest. That is why I decided to up my portion of the 401k from a lowly 3% to 12% this last year. My bank savings rate went down (only added about $1,000 to the bank accounts - the year before we added $8,000 to the bank accounts). Very glad to have that cash for the roofing job though. Oh yeah and the car purchase it will be nice to pay cash for that - probably $10 grand or so for a used car.

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I have 10 months of income saved in baby step 3. I know that is probably too high.

I am going to get a new roof put on this year and perhaps a newer car in the next year so I will pay cash for those and that will help put me near the appropriate savings level.

But if you are having trouble getting $35k in savings why can't you just stuff the money you were putting in your 401k in there until you hit the goal? I didn't realize the cap on the IRA is such a problem since I have some IRAs at Edward Jones in addition to my 401ks me and my wife have at work.

The last time I had debt was about 5 years ago when I paid off my wife's 4 year car loan. At 4% loan rate the bank was paying me a higher savings rate. But since then I paid cash for the last car which was $10.500. The smartest thing I ever did was refinace my home to a 15 year rate four years ago. I still have 11 years left on that loan but I think I can pay it off in 5 years if I can keep my savings rate high and start attacking it soon.

You have a point on the money sitting in savings being spent. My problem is I don't spend it and it earns very little interest. That is why I decided to up my portion of the 401k from a lowly 3% to 12% this last year. My bank savings rate went down (only added about $1,000 to the bank accounts - the year before we added $8,000 to the bank accounts). Very glad to have that cash for the roofing job though. Oh yeah and the car purchase it will be nice to pay cash for that - probably $10 grand or so for a used car.

I will have to try and save the extra money every year in a regular savings account for now. The cap is a problem if you want to save more for retirement and do not have a 401-k to dump money into.

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#3 would be closer to 35k for me. I have tried doing that, but I never get close.

I am trying to save 20% for me and 20% for my wife. You cannot save 20% if the max is 5500.00 every year. That is the problem with IRA's which is why 401-k's are so valuable. There is no cap on how much you can put in those. My wife is losing her 401-k...her new company may add it at some point in the future, but they are a new company and need to see how things go first.

When I was younger I used to put money into tax free municipal bonds for really long-term. Those were some of the best investments I ever made. I think you have to put it in 20-25 years now to get a decent rate and I'm too old for that. I currently put money into a ROTH. If I wasn't eligible for that and I did not have a 403B, I would probably put it into

an IRA.

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I think I'm closing in on #7, but definitely not ready for retirement yet. I'm wondering when the fun is going to start. I had more fun when I was younger and poorer. :-)

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I am trying to save 20% for me and 20% for my wife. You cannot save 20% if the max is 5500.00 every year. That is the problem with IRA's which is why 401-k's are so valuable. There is no cap on how much you can put in those. My wife is losing her 401-k...her new company may add it at some point in the future, but they are a new company and need to see how things go first.

You can continue to save 20% for your wife, it's just that the government isn't providing incentive for you to do so above $5,500/year (or whatever the IRA max is -- I don't track that any longer). So some won't be tax deferred. Its not that big of deal.

The benefit of the job change, however, is that she can roll her old 401k over into a IRA and have an incredible amount of additional control over the investment of those dollars. 401k plans are generally the worst because the plans have been co-opted by fund companies who cram down their really poor performing mutual funds down on businesses, for a reduction in fees, which screws their employees with lack of investment options. The sky is the limit now, and you can invest them how you like, if you roll it over to a place that gives you options.

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The S&P level of 1875ish from back in late August/September of last year seems like something to watch if this continues.

I set an alert on a stock a few months ago and forgot I did so. It tripped today. I would have never thought I would see this stock this cheap. It might get cheaper. It's a commodity play and they are getting crushed.

I vision Mr. Market and Mrs. Yellen sitting across a chess board like a couple of grandmasters; how far can it go until the Fed caves and lowers rates, and even more QE?

The "wealth effect" ya know.

Follow up with a bit of chart porn. I was in the mood for some chart porn.

I like watching this kind of stuff because there is money in it. :-) Color me crazy I don't care.

To the bold above;

Slide1.JPG

That move inside the circle is for a reason; especially given the rest of the day it looked like an Olympic diver.

Slide2.JPG

Dip below, close above. What does that mean? Need a bigger picture.

Slide3.JPG

The tread line begins in August of 15 to touch the bottom of the (intraday) candle in late September, the action today was the verification of the trend.

From a pure technical outlook, tomorrow is important. This is a perfect setup for trades; long or short. The trend line sets the in/out and where the stops will be set. The next question is which way you want to go, long or short. The long side presents an easy price target expectation, but the down side is a bit more murky. For context;

Slide4.JPG

The Bulls vs. the Bears; fear vs. greed.

To make it a bit more complicated, the candle the market painted today is a well known indicator, with endless amounts of data on the reliability of of said indicator of course (but fun and interesting stuff).

Candlestick Pattern Dictionary [ChartSchool]

Engulfing Pattern: A reversal pattern that can be bearish or bullish, depending upon whether it appears at the end of an uptrend (bearish engulfing pattern) or a downtrend (bullish engulfing pattern). The first day is characterized by a small body, followed by a day whose body completely engulfs the previous day's body.

candlebearishengulfing.gif

This was one of the things I found interesting today; because I love charts. The other (because I got to hear some) was the river of crocodile tears flowing out of Bubblevision. Priceless.

And it didn't come as a surprise they were calling on Mrs. Debtfire...because....

Looking forward to tomorrow.

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I dicked up. One more piece of chart porn;

today5.jpg

After looking further, the trend line I outlined above lines up perfectly (going backward) to October 2014 as well.

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This morning on tv they were talking about GoPro chart looking like the pattern for a base jump off a mountain.

4IiEpeN.png

Edited by rhino
Chart didn't post

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This morning on tv they were talking about GoPro chart looking like the pattern for a base jump off a mountain.

4IiEpeN.png

They were talking about this on Bubblevision this morning also. A few more; Maybe Valuations Do Matter

FTA:

GoPro – Down 83% since August

Twitter – Down 65% since April

Fitbit – Down 63% since August

LinkedIn – Down 27% since March

Netflix – Down 20% since December

And of course there are the heavyweights that everyone must own:

Amazon – Down 17% in last two weeks

Google – Down 10% in last two weeks

Facebook – Down 14% since November

The FANG stocks

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