Jump to content

Recommended Posts

China manfucturing contracted in January. Big growth engine for the world is sputtering. No correction yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
FanDuel Michigan Sports Betting

FanDuel Michigan $100 Launch Offer

Michigan online sports betting is launching shortly ( December 2020 or January 2021). Pre-register at FanDuel Sportsbook and get $50 free sports bets + $50 free online casino bets with no deposit necessary. Claim $100 at FanDuel Michigan Now

I get a kick out of the China growth story. What was their growth in 2013 - 7 percent? Before it has been 10 or more year after year (might be wrong, too lazy to look it up but it doesn't matter).

An average of 10 percent growth means GDP will double every 7 1/2 years. So how long has this growth lasted, and how long can you expect to grow at a rate that doubles your GDP every 7 1/2 years?

Ain't gonna happen.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Prof Albert Bartlett

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Funny thing about China. Next to Canada our biggest trading partner. They also kill us in trade. But.....that's what Mr. MarketMan is seeing today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Funny thing about China. Next to Canada our biggest trading partner. They also kill us in trade. But.....that's what Mr. MarketMan is seeing today.

I haven't dug into the trade numbers for a long time. I'm at the point I feel embarrassed to even say much in here because I don't have the "pulse" of the markets like I once did, which is why I kid so much.

But those numbers would be interesting to look at, especially on a y/o/y basis. The word "trade" can mean many things, and I'm not sure which you are referring to.

We import a bunch of junk people buy that they don't need, with money they don't have...oh, wait, I was kidding. :-)

I don't think we will ever be the world's leader in exports. Maybe debt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The bride gets home tonight and has a letter from the bank offering a money market account.

What a deal this is, I almost had the big one.

<drum roll>

1 percent. Read that again, just to make sure your eyes were not lying to you. 1 percent.

But wait, there's more.

Pony up the minimum 25 k and you even get a premium checking account along with this 1 percent APY pot of gold.

I only had two words, they weren't nice nor pretty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ohhhhh.......lordy. It's here. I'm coming Elizabeth!

59b7359ef1af7b215195e862aeda4242.jpg

SB if this image doesn't ring a bell there is no hope for you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ohhhhh.......lordy. It's here. I'm coming Elizabeth!

59b7359ef1af7b215195e862aeda4242.jpg

SB if this image doesn't ring a bell there is no hope for you.

LOL! I don't know if this is the big one or not. Yesterday they blamed it on China, today's it's the EU and SA currency problems. Are they now saying the EU is un-fixed AGAIN? No, really?

I don't have access to my charts, but what have we here, a 2 to 4 percent drop? Big whoop!

Might be a BTFD opportunity, or a chance to see, if it keeps going down, how much pain will be allowed until we find out the 85 billion dollar question - does Queen Janet have any balls.

The next FOMC meeting/announcement will be next Wednesday. It will be interesting to see what they have to say, given the economic numbers AND earnings haven't been stellar so far in 2014 sans a few. Will we see an un-taper taper (they could send Steve Liesman or Jon Hilsenrath out with a blurb along the lines of "Fed indicates they are considering a pause on taper due to weakening economic and employment numbers" and this thing would turn around and rip the face off the shorts)? Mission Accomplished!!!!!

But not to worry America, TPTB at Davos, and the upcoming Bilderberg Conference attendees will keep us in their best interest as well. :-)

It's all good.

I liked Sanford and Son. He was a hoot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This kind of stuff infuriates me. When it happens here, and I think it will (if it's not already as has been discussed before (as in taking out large amounts)) I will get in trouble. I'm not looking forward to that day, but that's the way I am. I don't deal well with BS like this, and this is BS of the biggest order.

That is my money and nobody, including these slimeball banksters, should be allowed to tell me what I can and can't do with MY money. And to be honest, a few days in the slammer would be worth whatever hell I decided to raise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This really isn't Yahoo, but IBD. This one isn't behind a paywall.

Emerging Markets Hit By Broad Selling Amid Growth Fears - Yahoo Finance

Emerging Markets Hit By Broad Selling Amid Growth Fears

Investor's Business Daily

January 24, 2014 6:53 PM

Emerging market bonds, stocks and especially currencies tumbled again Friday as new growth worries added fuel to the funds outflow sparked by the Federal Reserve's decision to scale back its massive stimulus.

Turkey's lira hit a new low for the 10th straight day. The Argentine peso dived to a 12-year low while its Merval stock index lost 3.9%. Bonds in those countries also sold off, pushing up yields.

In the U.S., the S&P 500 fell 2.1%, capping its worst week since June 2012. The yield on the safe-haven 10-year Treasury slid 4 basis points to 2.73%.

The reduced U.S. stimulus exposes economic and political weaknesses in emerging markets, which have struggled since the Fed signaled in May that it was mulling a taper in its bond buys. Cheap liquidity that moved around the world in search of yield began streaming out. After briefly stabilizing, selling resumed after the Fed agreed Dec. 18 to start curbing asset buys.

"What's going on right now is a lack of conviction among investors about what's going to drive the markets," said Michael McNiven, emerging markets portfolio manager at Cumberland Advisors. "You're getting a magnification of negativity.

That theme extends beyond emerging markets, he argued.

"Investors in general don't know how much of the overall markets are a function of fundamentals vs. something related to monetary policy. In that environment, markets aren't trading on fundamentals, but ideas.

Emerging market equity funds have seen outflow for six of the past seven weeks, Lipper data show. Such funds lost 13.4% in 2013. The unwinding could last two to three years as the Fed tapers and begins to raise rates, says Moody's Analytics economist Juan Pablo Fuentes.

Emerging markets include many economies. Argentina, which has had currency controls and struggles with high inflation, saw citizens scrambling to buy dollars on the black market. With currency reserves running low, the government said Monday it will relax those controls.

Turkey faces growing political instability while its central bank has refused to hike rates despite worries about the country's current account deficits.

"It becomes a country-specific play," said McNiven.

Another trigger for the emerging market sell-off came Thursday, when a China factory index signaled a January contraction. Slowing in the world's No. 2 economy may ruin its appetite for developing nations' commodities.

The Fed is expected to cut another $10 billion off monthly bond buys this week. But global turbulence may give policymakers pause — despite their repeated avowals that their responsibility is to the U.S. economy.

"Their conundrum from a monetary policy standpoint in the U.S. alone is sufficient enough to say we have to mind our own market," McNiven said. "Yet they know no market is an island."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This kind of stuff infuriates me. When it happens here, and I think it will (if it's not already as has been discussed before (as in taking out large amounts)) I will get in trouble. I'm not looking forward to that day, but that's the way I am. I don't deal well with BS like this, and this is BS of the biggest order.

That is my money and nobody, including these slimeball banksters, should be allowed to tell me what I can and can't do with MY money. And to be honest, a few days in the slammer would be worth whatever hell I decided to raise.

I found it ironic HSBC was doing it. I saw a funny comment posted in a different forum. Just tell them you are withdrawing money to buy drugs from the drug dealers HSBC laundered money for.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I found it ironic HSBC was doing it. I saw a funny comment posted in a different forum. Just tell them you are withdrawing money to buy drugs from the drug dealers HSBC laundered money for.

Isn't HSBC 'descended' from the banks that handled the 19th century opium trade, or is that a different org?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I found it ironic HSBC was doing it. I saw a funny comment posted in a different forum. Just tell them you are withdrawing money to buy drugs from the drug dealers HSBC laundered money for.

LOL! That's a good one.

***

Speaking of banks, I was playing Sherlock Holmes tonight looking for some potential stock buys, and ran across this one, which I don't necessarily want to buy, but found it interesting just the same.

Ticker ESNT (NYSE, not LON)

From Google;

Essent Group Ltd. (Essent) is a Bermuda-based holding company. The Company through its wholly owned subsidiaries offers private mortgage insurance and reinsurance for mortgages secured by residential properties located in the United States.

When you dig a bit deeper, we find this, and I must paraphrase because I the rest is behind paywalls.

If someone can't put 20 percent down, Fanny or Freddie will not underwrite the entire loan, only part of it. But if a supplemental insurer covers the rest, they will. That's where this place comes in, they cover the rest. The reason, according to them;

“extend affordable home-ownership by facilitating the sale of low-down-payment loans into the

secondary market,”

Maybe it's just me, but that sounds like trying to get people into loans who may have questionable finances. Haven't we watched that movie before?

Well, it all starts to make sense when you keep going down the rabbit hole. It turns out, owning 7 and 5.4 percent of the company, is none other than Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Who also handled their IPO.

What was that Yogi said "deja vu all over again."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A little chart porn on a Sunday morning. Looking at the S&P action since we've had this little sell-off and where the main S/R levels are, and what percentage of losses they indicate.

The latest high was 1850.84 on January 15, 2014. The pre-crash all time high was 1576.09 on10/7/2007. The chart doesn't go back far enough to capture the 10/7/2007 high, but the level shows up on the chart as we really want to look at the Jan/Feb 2011 forward.

I wanted to focus on what percentage the numbers would be in relation to the various support levels which are in place since the pre-crash high (1576.09) and the new high (1850.84) , since that will be significant support IF it drops to that level.

snp1.jpg

The 1790.29 close on Friday gives us a -3.27% drop from the highs. The lines on the chart I did not highlight are as follows;

1729.86 -6.54%

1709.67 -7.63%

And as indicated by the chart, a drop to the pre-crash highs would be a 14.84% correction.

Similar to the article posted above about Fed reaction to this "sell-off" I have read quite a few articles that appear "concerned" about this drop, including cries from the IMF and Christine Lagarde among others. Oh No!!!

I found the best and most humorous reaction, as well as one that seems to contain the most truth, is this one from ZH (who's dry humor is always good);

Stocks Drop 4% From Their All Time Highs And This Happens....

One couldn't make this up:

S.KOREA TO HOLD EMERGENCY MEETING ON JAN. 26 TO DISCUSS MARKETS

Bloomberg has the details: South Korea Vice Finance Minister Choo Kyung Ho will host an emergency meeting tomorrow at 11 a.m. with counterparts from Bank of Korea and financial regulators to discuss market instabilities in emerging economies including Argentina, ministry says in text message.

So what happens if there is a, gasp, 5% drop from all time S&P500 highs - Janet Yellen shows up on every TV channel and tells broke viewers now is the time to buy stocks and pay for them in 4 easy installments using their favorite EBT card. What about a 10% correction: the army gets mobilized? And should the unthinkable happens and the centrally-planned "market" crash by 20% then nothing short of DefCon 1 and a 24/7 curfew would be acceptable.

We joke, but this is what happens in a time when the "confidence" of the entire world is defined by the daily move straight line higher in the S&P, and the tiniest derivation from this path results in sheer panic.

***

Yep, pretty much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Maybe someone should start asking HSBC what they are doing with their cash...

HSBC faces £70bn capital hole, warn Hong Kong analysts - Yahoo Finance UK

Nothings changed since the crash, and most of the large TBTF banks are insolvent. But it doesn't matter, you have the FASB stuff that continues to allow them hide losses (mark to fantasy) and GAAP accounting that would make Enron and Arthur Anderson blush. Add in captured regulators, a bought and paid for congress, and a nonexistant justice dept. and this is what we get, and should expect.

And here I thought Sarbanes-Oxley and/or Frank-Dodd fixed all this. Silly me.

And by the way, loan loss reserves is all that has kept these criminal banks from getting shorted into oblivion (I still remember sitting with the JPM banksters over 4 years ago on earnings day as they yucked up the fact they beat expectations because of loan loss reserves - the rot runs deep).

Oh, I shouldn't forget, given the recent court problems and charges against JP Morgan Chase and their criminal CEO, who just got a 75% raise, these guys should get a huge bonus as well.

Who needs the mafia when we have banksters.

Only 7:45 and I must check my blood pressure already.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The bride gets home tonight and has a letter from the bank offering a money market account.

What a deal this is, I almost had the big one.

<drum roll>

1 percent. Read that again, just to make sure your eyes were not lying to you. 1 percent.

But wait, there's more.

Pony up the minimum 25 k and you even get a premium checking account along with this 1 percent APY pot of gold.

I only had two words, they weren't nice nor pretty.

You invest $25k at 1% APY. Then you have to prove to the bank that you need your cash when you go to withdraw. What's not to love about this?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I found it ironic HSBC was doing it. I saw a funny comment posted in a different forum. Just tell them you are withdrawing money to buy drugs from the drug dealers HSBC laundered money for.

That was my thought as well, but that probably just ends up in them calling the police on you. So you have to reframe it and tell them that you are withdrawing your funds to fight financial crime and end HSBC's money laundering of illicit drug money.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You invest $25k at 1% APY. Then you have to prove to the bank that you need your cash when you go to withdraw. What's not to love about this?

LOL! I know.

I read an add the other day for something, less amount needed, but you got .085. Great.

I would love to go into a bank and say "I am interested in your 25k 1 percent APY, can you answer a few questions?"

The first thing I thought about was; I give them 25k for a year, they, in return, give me $250 bucks after said year. In the mean time, they take my 25k and lever it to 250,000 and speculate in the markets which help run up the price of corn, crude, RBOB, LNG, and who knows what else by their prop desk. By the time I get my 250 bucks back, the price of all that stuff has eaten it all up and I'm still behind and really didn't make a thing.

All the while they use my regular account and their "sweeps" to do even more damage while telling me they are doing me a favor on all accounts - and I'm suppose to swallow this hook-line-and-sinker. Well, no, FY!

But going in a bank and asking a teller this stuff is a waste of time. They don't know, they are just doing their job and don't deserve the wrath I would like to lay on these predatory slimeball pieces of ****.

Again, as a disclaimer, not ALL banks or bankers are like this. I'm talking about the Jamie Dimon's and his ilk of the world.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Michigan Sports Betting Offer

FanDuel Sportsbook Michigan - Sports Betting is launching in Michigan shortly (December 2020 or January 2021). If you register before it launches you will recieve $50 dollars at their online sportsbook and online casino!

Click Here to claim the FanDuel Michigan for $50 at Online Sportsbook & Casino Pre-registration Bonus Now

Motown Sports Blog



×
×
  • Create New...