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Nothing makes sense anymore. A few days ago Mr. Bigglesworth made a comment a Tigers thread about rearranging seats on the deck of the titanic... Well, I think this is the titanic. You just get the best seat you can, this is a historic event unfolding, and trading it is the perfect view of what is unfolding. And if we survive the crash, whether it's this year or next or the next, it's going to be something you'll want to tell your family about for years to come.

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I've watched and traded the market for years - I have never seen anything like this - ever (the last few years).

I never finished, but I was writing a report for a blog I used to do. It started on crash day of 2009 (March) and explained all the BS and manipulation that brought us to where we were when I was writing the article. It was lengthy, very lengthy. I got so fed up with it all I quit.

This isn't a market, it's a joke, and a bad one at that. But it keeps going up, and that's all that matters.

ZimbabweIndustrialIndex.jpg

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Do you post on Zerohedge? Someone posted that Zimbabwe graphic in the comments of one of the posts there today... Just curious.

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Regarding Case Shiller's report today...

"Just about everybody agrees we're going to miss the seasonally strong period in 2011, which we should be at the very beginning of right now with May, but nobody thinks that will make any difference," says S&P's David Blitzer. "Everybody's now keeping their fingers crossed for 2012 and wondering whether people just don't want to own homes anymore."

Keeping your fingers crossed for the housing market is just the tip of the iceberg. Prices have now fallen, on this index, more than they did during the Great Depression. "On that occasion, the peak in prices was not regained until 19 years after they first fell," notes Paul Dales at Capital Economics.

House Prices Have Now Fallen Farther Than They Did In The Great Depression

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Do you post on Zerohedge? Someone posted that Zimbabwe graphic in the comments of one of the posts there today... Just curious.

I do, but that wasn't me. I seen the pic there though, thought I would share.

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The crazy part of this is some of the housing market stocks/ETFs. You can play the residential/commercial real estate stocks long/short via IYR and SRS. IYR is the long play and it hit 2 1/2 year highs today. That makes no sense at all.

Does anyone think we are in as good of shape as we were before the crash a couple of years ago? I don't.

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Nothing makes sense anymore. A few days ago Mr. Bigglesworth made a comment a Tigers thread about rearranging seats on the deck of the titanic... Well, I think this is the titanic. You just get the best seat you can, this is a historic event unfolding, and trading it is the perfect view of what is unfolding. And if we survive the crash, whether it's this year or next or the next, it's going to be something you'll want to tell your family about for years to come.

Well, I guess I should invest in my pistol and single bullet now, while I can still afford it. Because I'm not living in a world where we live in burned out buildings and shoot each other over drinking water and concubines.

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IBD's 'Market Pulse' today says were are in a 'confirmed uptrend' which should indicate a 'go' for stock purchases. But we are down 1% today because of lousy economic data.....BTW, this doesn't seem like a 'recovery' to me and why is poor economic data always prefaced with something along the lines of 'suprisingly weak' etc. etc. After months of this stuff it should surprise no one. There is no recovery.

Stocks falter after weak economic data - Yahoo! Finance

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks fell on Wednesday as another round of weak economic data cast doubts on the strength of an economic recovery.

The S&P was off more than 1 percent after climbing in the four prior sessions. The gains came even as data showed a decline in growth in the second quarter, a trend supported by Wednesday's private employment and factory activity reports.

U.S. private employers added a scant 38,000 jobs in May, the lowest level since September 2010, according to ADP Employer Services data.

The Institute for Supply Management's index of national factory activity fell to 53.5 in May -- its worst since September 2009 -- from 60.4 the month before.

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Well, I guess I should invest in my pistol and single bullet now, while I can still afford it. Because I'm not living in a world where we live in burned out buildings and shoot each other over drinking water and concubines.

I'm not suggesting there will be Mad Max times. But a global reset, a wholesale change in currencies, banking, taxes, regulation? Yes. Government failures, revolutions, war? Yes. But Mad Max apocolyptic civilization? No.

The rise and fall of empires happen. The rise and fall of fiat currencies happen. They are cyclical in nature, and history repeats itself.

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IBD's 'Market Pulse' today says were are in a 'confirmed uptrend' which should indicate a 'go' for stock purchases. But we are down 1% today because of lousy economic data.....BTW, this doesn't seem like a 'recovery' to me and why is poor economic data always prefaced with something along the lines of 'suprisingly weak' etc. etc. After months of this stuff it should surprise no one. There is no recovery.

Yeah, I saw that, and in fact I started a thread there asking whether others were seeing the same thing IBD appeared to be:

Confirmed Market Uptrend? Really? - Community Server

So far, the couple of guys who responded haven't really endorsed it yet.

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I'm not suggesting there will be Mad Max times. But a global reset, a wholesale change in currencies, banking, taxes, regulation? Yes. Government failures, revolutions, war? Yes. But Mad Max apocolyptic civilization? No.

We have government failures, revolutions and war in good times. I guess the difference is whether they happen in the second and third worlds, or in the first world.

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We have jobless claims tomorrow morning at 8:30, then the monthly employment report on Friday (non-farm payroll) at 8:30. The ADP is not a solid indicator of what we might see in the next two days.

Today's ISM was not good, and there is non-mfg ISM on Friday as well.

Economic calendars can be found everywhere, but I use - http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/us-economic-calendar.aspx. Something you should check daily.

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IBD's 'Market Pulse' today says were are in a 'confirmed uptrend' which should indicate a 'go' for stock purchases. But we are down 1% today because of lousy economic data.....BTW, this doesn't seem like a 'recovery' to me and why is poor economic data always prefaced with something along the lines of 'suprisingly weak' etc. etc. After months of this stuff it should surprise no one. There is no recovery.

Rather we are seeing a recovery or not doesn't matter. What matters is what the tape (market) says. The "Market Pulse" switched to a confirmed uptrend because of the higher volume yesterday as well as various breakouts of stocks they are watching. Read the article, it explains it better than I can. They may change again tomorrow. This is a tough market after all. Many people I read won’t touch it with a 10 foot pole, including myself. But their article does hold some caution which is valid IMHO.

Market direction is paramount and that's one of the things they watch. It doesn't matter who you are reading, market direction dictates movement in whatever direction. Remember the old sayings "a rising tide lifts all boats" and conversely "a falling tide sinks all boats". Broad market direction trumps individual stocks. They may not be correlated at first, but eventually they all end up going the same direction.

Stocks and indexes don’t go up every day, nor do they fall every day, you have corrections along the way, and they are even healthy. The general trend is up, has been since the crash. IBD talks about breakouts, distribution days, and general trend. It’s part of the strategy they use. You need to understand charts, chart patterns, and candlesticks to gain the full understanding of what they are talking about. It will make more sense.

They aren’t the only ones, Wall Street firms (all of them) employ technicians (trained, schooled, and certified) to read chart and candlestick patterns as part of the tools they use to trade. Each and every firm has their own proprietary trading desk, as well as many other large companies, and of course the hedge funds, mutual funds, and yes, even the Federal Reserve.

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Yep, I sure wouldn't put new money into this thing now. We've been going sideways for the past few months or so. Long in gold, that's it. It's true that the market has been climbing despite poor economic performance but how long can this continue given that this is one of the most protracted 'recoveries' (term used very loosely) we've seen. And combined with dangerous fiscal issues, we are in uncharted waters IMHO.

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Just some interesting info IMO on how people allocate their investments:

AAII: STOCK ALLOCATIONS FALL TO 7 MONTH LOW | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM

Stock and stock fund allocations fell to a seven-month low according to the May AAII Asset Allocation Survey. Individual investors kept 61.0% of their portfolios in equities last month, a drop of 1.9 percentage points. Even with the decline, May was the eighth consecutive month that stock and stock fund allocations were above their historical average of 60.0%.

Bond and bond fund allocations rose 2.5 percentage points to 21.1%, a six-month high. May was the 24th consecutive month that fixed-income allocations have been above their historical average of 15%.

Cash allocations slipped 0.6 percentage points to 17.9%, a four-month low. May was the 11th consecutive month that cash allocations have been below their historical average of 25%.

The decline in stock and stock fund allocations occurred as optimism about the direction of stock prices fell to its lowest level since last August in our sentiment survey. Ongoing volatility in the stock market reduced some of the cautious optimism that we have been seeing. A rebound in bond prices last month also played a role. It should be noted, however, that last month’s shifts did not impact the trends we have been seeing in our asset allocation survey. Both stock and bond allocations stayed above their historical averages for yet another month.

This month’s special question asked AAII members if they have made any changes to their portfolios because of the ongoing debate over the federal deficit. The majority of respondents said they have not made any changes. Among those who said they were making changes, many said they were increasing their cash positions. Others said they increased their allocations to commodities, gold and stocks.

Here is a sampling of the responses:

“The change I’ve made is to avoid any changes. I’m resisting the frantic shifts that uncertainty would call for.”

“Nothing so far, but I will likely get defensive soon if partisan politics don’t soften up some.”

“I’m increasing the amount of cash right now. I’m hoping for a correction that will give me a buying opportunity.”

“I have switched more into cash and foreign funds.”

May Asset Allocation Survey Results:

Stocks/Stock Funds: 61.0%, down 1.9 percentage points

Bonds/Bond Funds: 21.1%, up 2.5 percentage points

Cash: 17.9%, down 0.6 percentage points

Asset Allocation details:

Stocks: 27.1%, down 0.7 percentage points

Stock Funds: 34.0%, down 1.1 percentage points

Bonds: 4.6%, up 1.3 percentage points

Bond Funds: 16.5%, up 1.2 percentage points

Historical Averages

Stocks/Stock Funds: 60%

Bonds/Bond Funds: 15%

Cash: 25%

Edited by Greenwit

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Yep, I sure wouldn't put new money into this thing now. We've been going sideways for the past few months or so. Long in gold, that's it. It's true that the market has been climbing despite poor economic performance but how long can this continue given that this is one of the most protracted 'recoveries' (term used very loosely) we've seen. And combined with dangerous fiscal issues, we are in uncharted waters IMHO.

There is an old saying (I have all kinds of those :cheeky:):

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent

So true, just ask the shorts.

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Moody's downgraded Greece debt to Caa1, negative outlook. A couple weeks late, but at least they got it in before a default.

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We're down 2% today. Big bad red day. iShares gold trust +.5% and gold up to $1550.

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My market short ETFs are up 4%, and I converted almost all of our retirement funds to cash in the past two weeks.

Not all rosey, though: I still have long mutual funds that are liquid that are also getting spanked today.

All in all, though, this is not as bloody a day for me as it would have been two weeks ago, before I bought short positions and moved stuff around.

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We're down 2% today. Big bad red day. iShares gold trust +.5% and gold up to $1550.

Silver getting pummeled as I type. Below $37 now. BTFD. Actually my target buy-in is $34.

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Gold getting crushed now too, but still up overall for the day.... $1,535 now.

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Gold getting crushed now too, but still up overall for the day.... $1,535 now.

I've noticed gold bounces around quite a bit during the day. Not to mention silver....

Now for something completely different, home prices are getting real worrisome.........

WEBhome0601.jpg.cms

Edited by Greenwit

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I've noticed gold bounces around quite a bit during the day. Not to mention silver....

Now for something completely different, home prices are getting real worrisome.........

WEBhome0601.jpg.cms

Home prices... I think I posted yesterday (or I meant to if I didn't), but prices are back down to mid-2002 levels now. And my personal opinion is that we haven't even seen the big decline yet. I mean, once the market tanks, and I'm talking really tanks, the liquidity crisis is going to make the housing market decline seen so far seem tame. It should bounce hard off the bottom though, because there will eventually be a flight to hard assets -- including real estate.

But that probably doesn't happen until investors lose confidence in the US dollar. And that's still likely a few more rounds of QE away from now, I think.

But I will say, that I got a newsletter today that said:

U.S. Homes: Now the Best Deal in Recorded History

It was based upon their index of home prices, interest rates and personal incomes... And while they may be right about some of that, I think there will be much better opportunities to buy down the road.

And a few day ago I got another newsletter that indicated that Florida real estate was a buy right now. So the contrarians are out there, looking for unloved assets to buy up.

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