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Republicans- Who is Your Candidate?

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A nomination of Santorum, Romney, or Gingrich is a huge gift to the Barack Obama re-election campaign. Obama ran against the failed policies of George W. Bush last time and the GOP will most likely allow him to do it again this year.

Does the GOP want Obama to win again...or are they really that dumb?

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Romad ain't gonna lie I was hoping for a knockout Last night...balls

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A nomination of Santorum, Romney, or Gingrich is a huge gift to the Barack Obama re-election campaign. Obama ran against the failed policies of George W. Bush last time and the GOP will most likely allow him to do it again this year.

Does the GOP want Obama to win again...or are they really that dumb?

I still think Romney has a shot to beat Obama. He's the only one. I'd put it at 30% if there's no third party candidate from the right. They'll come around.

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I still think Romney has a shot to beat Obama. He's the only one. I'd put it at 30% if there's no third party candidate from the right. They'll come around.

Incumbency is an advantage. $5 gas will mitigate that.

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I think beating any incumbent is an upset. But this wouldn't be like Reagan beating Carter. It would be a bigger surprise than Reagan and Clinton defeating a guy going for his 2nd term.

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Incumbency is an advantage. $5 gas will mitigate that.

Aren't the oil companies in bed with the GOP?

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No, that was the narrative when we had a GOP President. He and Cheney were in teh back room raising the prices for their friends. Now it's external factors beyond anybody's control so it's not an issue for the President or Energy Secretary. Don't look at them.

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Barring a major event, Romney has no shot of beating Obama, even if he has the best shot. If Romney can't get his own party behind him, how is he going to get the independents behind him? It's not as though independents can't see how phony he is, and all the people who would vote against Obama simply because they hate him, whether rationally or not, are already counted among the Republicans.

Obama is also way more stable than any of the Republicans. He commits no unforced errors, or at least none that come to my mind. All the Republicans do, and on a fairly regular basis.

I agree that a Santorum ticket would be a huge gift to Obama despite that he is probably the closest to Obama in terms of articulation and earnestness. But there is no chance Santorum wins the nomination unless the room in Tampa is pumped full of nitrous oxide. Even though he had a good night last night, remember that the rest of the country is nothing like Alabama and Mississippi. These states are not even close to being a microcosm of America.

It practically doesn't matter who the Republicans nominate, because every one running for that nod is fatally flawed, and there's no one on the bench with anything near the appeal to replace them. Seriously -- who is there who could come in and motivate not only the base, but independents, to vote a victory over Obama? Chris Christie? He's a time bomb waiting to go off. Marco Rubio? Working class conservatives might confuse him with being a Mexican, while Mexicans will be motivated to turn out to vote against him. Sarah Palin? Please.

The only one I think has any shot of coming off the bench is Jeb Bush, and I don't think it will be his time until at least 2016, and that's only because the Bush years are too fresh in our memories.

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Romney wins the delegate count for the night (per Chuck Todd) 42-38. It just slows the process.

https://twitter.com/#!/chucktodd/status/179892471499735041

There is a good chance Romney ends up in Tampa just short of the votes needed. If the GOP chooses someone who has not gone thrrough the process (Christie, Strickland, Bush, Palin) I think the base would go completely ballistic.

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they will get behind him once he nominates a non whack job conservative as VP.

I saw a reference on a blog to a book on Reagan's 1980 campaign and one chapter was called "Front Walker." and they brought it up to refer to Romney's status today.

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Chuck, do you want to place a friendly wager once we get the full tickets for each party? I wouldn't bet on Romney to win but rather talking margin of victory for Obama. I'd have to think about what i'd be willing to go up to.

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I could be talked into a friendly wager. I assume we're talking electoral votes? At what point would we have to make the wager? Is it the day after the ticket is announced, or closer to the actual election?

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they will get behind him once he nominates a non whack job conservative as VP.

I saw a reference on a blog to a book on Reagan's 1980 campaign and one chapter was called "Front Walker." and they brought it up to refer to Romney's status today.

I'm not convinced of that. The base doesn't like him and they may want to fire up the base for the general by having a whacko VP nominee.

Then again, Romney has swung far right during this election season...could see a moderate being the nominee. We'll see.

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Barring a major event, Romney has no shot of beating Obama, even if he has the best shot. If Romney can't get his own party behind him, how is he going to get the independents behind him? It's not as though independents can't see how phony he is, and all the people who would vote against Obama simply because they hate him, whether rationally or not, are already counted among the Republicans.

Obama is also way more stable than any of the Republicans. He commits no unforced errors, or at least none that come to my mind. All the Republicans do, and on a fairly regular basis.

I agree that a Santorum ticket would be a huge gift to Obama despite that he is probably the closest to Obama in terms of articulation and earnestness. But there is no chance Santorum wins the nomination unless the room in Tampa is pumped full of nitrous oxide. Even though he had a good night last night, remember that the rest of the country is nothing like Alabama and Mississippi. These states are not even close to being a microcosm of America.

It practically doesn't matter who the Republicans nominate, because every one running for that nod is fatally flawed, and there's no one on the bench with anything near the appeal to replace them. Seriously -- who is there who could come in and motivate not only the base, but independents, to vote a victory over Obama? Chris Christie? He's a time bomb waiting to go off. Marco Rubio? Working class conservatives might confuse him with being a Mexican, while Mexicans will be motivated to turn out to vote against him. Sarah Palin? Please.

The only one I think has any shot of coming off the bench is Jeb Bush, and I don't think it will be his time until at least 2016, and that's only because the Bush years are too fresh in our memories.

???

Latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Romney with a 2% lead over Obama.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/election-expectations-move-obamas-way-yet-rising-gas-prices-fuel-gop-pushback/

This time 4 years ago, Obama was a full 3 months away from clinching the nomination. To say that the Republicans won't rally behind Romney is nothing more than wishful thinking.

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they will get behind him once he nominates a non whack job conservative as VP.

Who's an example of a "non whack job conservative"?

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???

Latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Romney with a 2% lead over Obama.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/election-expectations-move-obamas-way-yet-rising-gas-prices-fuel-gop-pushback/

This time 4 years ago, Obama was a full 3 months away from clinching the nomination. To say that the Republicans won't rally behind Romney is nothing more than wishful thinking.

...and today's Reuters poll has Obama +11 over Romney.

Obama's approval rating up to 50 percent: Reuters/Ipsos poll | Reuters

Then again, today's Bloomberg poll has them tied. I follow polling and hate when people take one poll to make a point. The most accurate way is to look at a group of recent polling to get a feel...and even that isn't all that great. You don't truly know until election day.

Current RCP average is Obama +2.8 on Romney. Think this will be close up to election day.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

Edited by monkeynuts

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???

Latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Romney with a 2% lead over Obama.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/election-expectations-move-obamas-way-yet-rising-gas-prices-fuel-gop-pushback/

This time 4 years ago, Obama was a full 3 months away from clinching the nomination. To say that the Republicans won't rally behind Romney is nothing more than wishful thinking.

I have to admit, I'm surprised to see that, but I do think it's fleeting and based mainly on the recent gas price hikes. I'd be really surprised to see this hold up. I also wonder what the margin of error is for the poll. I'd be interested in seeing whether other top polls corroborate this.

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...and today's Reuters poll has Obama +11 over Romney.

Obama's approval rating up to 50 percent: Reuters/Ipsos poll | Reuters

Then again, today's Bloomberg poll has them tied. I follow polling and hate when people take one poll to make a point. The most accurate way is to look at a group of recent polling to get a feel...and even that isn't all that great. You don't truly know until election day.

Current RCP average is Obama +2.8 on Romney. Think this will be close up to election day.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

Romney has no shot, yet he is trailing by 2.8%(within margin for error) in the average of the polls?

I must be missing something.

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they will get behind him once he nominates a non whack job conservative as VP.

I saw a reference on a blog to a book on Reagan's 1980 campaign and one chapter was called "Front Walker." and they brought it up to refer to Romney's status today.

I was a pretty passionate H.W.Bush supporter in 1980. As were my family. Bush won Michigan late in the process but it wasn't enough.

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Gas prices are within the control of the President in so far as he can do things to deliberately elevate them. Like put handicaps on market forces that could increase supply.

The pending gulf war won't help. If the US really needed to go all domestic/North America (Mexico/Canada) for production because of a war that cut off supply to the gulf it could almost overnight and within 2 months it could be producing as much as we needed. The current situation doesn't call for anywhere near that level of mobilization. We didn't even do or have to do something like that in 1990 when folks were rightly freaked about Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

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Gas prices are within the control of the President in so far as he can do things to deliberately elevate them. Like put handicaps on market forces that could increase supply.

The pending gulf war won't help. If the US really needed to go all domestic/North America (Mexico/Canada) for production because of a war that cut off supply to the gulf it could almost overnight and within 2 months it could be producing as much as we needed. The current situation doesn't call for anywhere near that level of mobilization. We didn't even do or have to do something like that in 1990 when folks were rightly freaked about Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

You have anything to back this up?

If they start something with Iran, and Iran shut the Straight of Hormutz, Brent crude will be $200 bbl within a week. The Mexican, Canadian and our own oil will not be near enough to satisfy our needs. It can't be produced fast enough.

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To show you how overblown one poll can be...

A big story the last few days was the Rasmussen daily tracking poll that had Pres. Obama falling to a 41% approval. I saw plenty of coverage last night on the three big cable news outlets about this poll.

Today's Ramussen poll has him up to 47%...Bloomberg has him +1 at 48/47...and Pew Research has him +9 at 50/41.

When looking at poll averages it's also critical to look at swing state averages. I keep track of Ohio which has Pres Obama up between 3-4% right now.

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A nomination of Santorum, Romney, or Gingrich is a huge gift to the Barack Obama re-election campaign. Obama ran against the failed policies of George W. Bush last time and the GOP will most likely allow him to do it again this year.

Does the GOP want Obama to win again...or are they really that dumb?

i fail to see how you can lump the three of them together - romney will do his best to pivot back to the center as the nominee and that will help a lot with "moderates" - though it will cost him conservative participation no doubt - santorum will scare the crap out of everybody but the very religious and gingrich will melt down - so basically santorum or gingrich would be a gift - at this point romney is the democrats worst fear

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No, that was the narrative when we had a GOP President. He and Cheney were in teh back room raising the prices for their friends. Now it's external factors beyond anybody's control so it's not an issue for the President or Energy Secretary. Don't look at them.

actually it is literally what bush said - not just some outside narrative

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they will get behind him once he nominates a non whack job conservative as VP.

I saw a reference on a blog to a book on Reagan's 1980 campaign and one chapter was called "Front Walker." and they brought it up to refer to Romney's status today.

i agree however participation is down this year - when you would expect it to be up and unified against obama - and i expect it will drop further in the general election among the gop die hards if romney is the candidate

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