Jump to content

Shelton

The Detroit Tigers' Rotation Depth

Recommended Posts

All-

I've noticed a lot of discussion lately regarding the tigers' rotation depth (or lack thereof). Obviously, with the signing of penny, dfa of galarraga, and coke's conversion to starter, the depth is a hot topic.

This led me to think about what it really means to have rotation depth and how deep you need to go to be satisfied (that'swhatshesaid).

I am of the opinion that a team has sufficient depth if it can go into the season with five good starters, some of which being very good.

It seems that others see depth from more of a quantitative standpoint. Many here appear to be worried because the tigers don't have a proven sixth starter lined up and ready to go when coke or penny inevitably fail in one form or another.

I guess my question is this: when have the tigers ever had this type of depth? As a follow up question, what other teams are fortunate enough to have six starters?

Really, are we going to start worrying because we no longer have galarraga and bonine?

I think we have depth, and I'm hoping to get others' view on the appropriate level of depth in a major league system.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think our rotation has a chance to be excellent.

Verlander should be a stud

Scherzer is not too far behind

Porcello hope he can pitch post as he did post all star break

Coke Has good stuff, has embraced his new role, has the build.

Penny guys a past all star, 16 game winner, has good stuff. seems to be fully healthy.

Verlander 17-22 wins

Scherzer 14-18 wins

Porcello 12-17 wins

Coke 10-15 wins

Penny 10-16 wins

So 63 to 88 wins from the rotation seems good to me.

although 88 wins from the rotation seems like a pipe dream.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not really "worried" about the Tigers. Right now, I'm picking them to win the AL Central. However, I'll need to see how Coke and Penny work out before I'll say they are going into the season with five good starters.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I feel a little thinner than in recent years, although at the same time, I think we have higher upside in our top 5 SP's. So it's a bit of a trade-off.

I won't go into a lot of details, I'm sure someone can/will... but I know I felt better from a safety standpoint when our rotation included Verlander, Rogers, Bonderman, Robertson & Maroth. Not the upside, but before the last four had health problems, that looked to be awfully stable. The stability doesn't seem to be there with the current five given Penny's health issues, and Coke's transition from the pen.

And I think what people may be overlooking from a depth perspective is Oliver. We all know he is there and I want him to have to earn a spot in the majors and not be handed it. But it's been a long time since our "depth" included a top prospect and a guy with the upside of Oliver. Usually depth is made up of back of the roation prospects, career minor leaguers, and/or a swing guy or two. It's kind of new to Detroit fans, to have a potential high impact SP, sitting in AAA getting seasoning. Not to say he's a sure thing, he's not, but it's a different kind of depth than in the past. And clearly the organization is high on him and to some extent counting on him.

I personally would like to see one more SP signed on a minor league deal to compete with Gonzalez and Oxspring. Mostly because I just don't know what to make of Oxspring. And I think competition is a good thing. But beyond that, I feel pretty okay with the current depth list.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's kind of new to Detroit fans, to have a potential high impact SP, sitting in AAA getting seasoning.

This just reminded me that I used to say that Toledo is where pitching prospects go to die, and that we should skip all of our prospects from AA to the majors. Anyway, I almost forgot I used to say that because its's been such a long time since we really had a top pitching prospect make that stop.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm not really "worried" about the Tigers. Right now, I'm picking them to win the AL Central. However, I'll need to see how Coke and Penny work out before I'll say they are going into the season with five good starters.
At the risk of seeming stupid--not that this would be rare for me--I do not detect a note or irony in this statement so I'll believe Lee means what he's saying about the Tigers as AL Central favorites. Yes!

Since I've lost the habit of reflexive optimism and am willing to defer to people who actually think about these things and use evidence and logic to support their thinking, Lee's assertion makes me feel really good.

As for five good starters, something always seems to happen to block this from happening. I don't have any evidence to support this other than a history of believing that five good starters could be possible for a team then witnessing events that conspire to stop it. Pitching is so volatile, as Lee has pointed out so many times, that it's more likely--I feel--for five good starters to occur by happenstance and luck than by planning and forethought. This is why "depth," however one wishes to define it, is so critical.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My issue is that the "depth" concerns facing the tigers exist for the vast majority of other teams, as well.

Someone mentioned the Rogers bonderman maroth rotation as seeming solid. Sure, it seems that way because they didn't get hurt that year (maroth did). We all know how they held up going forward.

Any pitcher can end up hurt. It happens so randomly that I don't know that it makes sense to assume it will happen for any one pitcher in any season.

Rotation depth, numbers wise, exists in the minors. The guys that you can sign to minor league deals are inherently replacement level. You build depth by drafting well and getting lucky with prospects. If it doesn't work out, you hold your breath and hope your top 4 can each start 30 games. If they can't, you make a trade.

Galarraga was not the answer to our depth concerns.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think "depth" is a little cyclical too. For example, when I say that our depth includes Furbush, Gagnier, Weber and Brown, people get a little concerned. They don't know a lot about these guys and certainly they don't have a major league track record.

If I said our depth included Miner, Bonine, Figaro, and Colon, probably people feel a little better about that. They aren't good but we knew what to expect.

But this is a cyclical situation because of the options and the ability to run these guys back and forth between Toledo and Detroit. My opinion is that Furbush, Gagnier, Weber and Brown represent the new crop of comparable pitchers, only they have their options and are cost controlled. We cycled out the others who were either too expensive or out of options. However, the uncertainty remains because we still don't have the track record on these guys yet. But that is probably going to change over the next season and a half. Probably a couple will do okay, and a couple will disappoint. And then the cycle will continue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know this wont be a well received opinion, but I think what happened with AG was a mistake. I dont expect much from Penny, I was excited that he was going to come in and compete for the 5th spot, no reason to just hand it to him. I like our 1-3, Coke is a huge question mark and so is Penny. Doesnt make sense to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The depth we have is as good as it has been the past couple years. Obviously Coke is no sure thing and Penny has the injury issues, but they are loads better than years where we were looking to Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis.

I would have liked to have kept AG, but Oliver is still a good #6 guy. The thing about #6 guys is they really have to be people under club control.....Nobody is going to come to Detroit to be a #6 SP, and it's hard to either get enough innings in or to stay fresh or to stretch out if your #6 is your long relief guy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's certainly valid to be down on coke as a starter. I think you have believe that ag is the better option over the course of the season, though. The team obviously feels otherwise. It's fine to disagree with that. I obviously agree with the team thinking on this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think "depth" is a little cyclical too. For example, when I say that our depth includes Furbush, Gagnier, Weber and Brown, people get a little concerned. They don't know a lot about these guys and certainly they don't have a major league track record.

If I said our depth included Miner, Bonine, Figaro, and Colon, probably people feel a little better about that. They aren't good but we knew what to expect.

But this is a cyclical situation because of the options and the ability to run these guys back and forth between Toledo and Detroit. My opinion is that Furbush, Gagnier, Weber and Brown represent the new crop of comparable pitchers, only they have their options and are cost controlled. We cycled out the others who were either too expensive or out of options. However, the uncertainty remains because we still don't have the track record on these guys yet. But that is probably going to change over the next season and a half. Probably a couple will do okay, and a couple will disappoint. And then the cycle will continue.

(applause)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with the team's thinking that Penny and Coke are better options than Galarraga. However, I think there is a lot of risk there. I'd have rather have seen them go into spring training with Penny, Coke and Galarraga and hope that two of them are healthy and serviceable at the end of spring training. I don't really know if Oliver is a good option yet. Just based on what I've read so far, I don't see any of the others as good options coming out of spring training. That could change if Turner makes quick progress.

If they can get something decent for Galarraga (doubtful) then it could be a good move. Otherwise, it's a cost saving move. That's a valid business reason to make such a move but not one that I care about as a fan.

Edited by tiger337

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the team made a baseball move here, lee. I think they finally realized that ag is not good. Ithink they also did their due diligence on coke and penny.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think the team made a baseball move here, lee. I think they finally realized that ag is not good. Ithink they also did their due diligence on coke and penny.

I am looking forward to seeing Coke as a starter. We'll see about Penny. Making judgments about the health of their pitchers is not the Tigers forte. He's certainly better than Galarraga if healthy.

Again, I don't think the move is a big deal either way. Galarraga is not good enough to worry about I just don't see that it improves their position heading into the season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I agree with the team's thinking that Penny and Coke are better options than Galarraga. However, I think there is a lot of risk there. I'd have rather have seen them go into spring training with Penny, Coke and Galarraga and hope that two of them are healthy and serviceable at the end of spring training. I don't really know if Oliver is a good option yet. Just based on what I've read so far, I don't see any of the others as good options coming out of spring training. That could change if Turner makes quick progress.

If they can get something decent for Galarraga (doubtful) then it could be a good move. Otherwise, it's a cost saving move. That's a valid business reason to make such a move but not one that I care about as a fan.

I have a little different take, which is that one of the ways you get to a winning team is to keep pushing the marginal players on your roster out the door looking for better skill synergies and/or younger guys on the way up who are getting better instead of plateaued or on the downside or just plain not very good to begin with. I'd put AG in there somewhere. The worst spots on the roster are the easiest ones to improve.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Verlander: Top 5 MLB pitcher, pitches to win the game not always with the best ERA but with a good one and always performs in the clutch. I would say he has a great Chance for 20 wins.

Sherzer: I think he could win a cy young this year, I know, it sounds nuts. But if he can pitch like last year against teams #2 starters with and upgraded offense, he will have some rediculous numbers.

Porcello: Should have a good year, coming off sophmore slump. Highly effective #3 starter if at his potential.

Coke: Great stuff, but has a lot to show still. Can he start? Or will he go back to the pen?

Penny: I like his potentiall, could end up being a superb signing if he has a decent season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's a long season. Injuries are bound to happen. Tigs may wish they had Armando when it's all said and done.

Injuries as well as ineffectiveness. Last year, the Tigers had to send Scherzer and Porcello down to Toledo to get straightened out. We won't have that luxury this year. These 5 guys are going to have to go out there every 5th day, whether they're getting hitters out or not. And if an injury happens, Oliver can step in. And he will be stepping in when double headers start happening. Not having Armando is a mistake, IMO. Yeah, he sucked, but at least he could eat up some innings. With the #7 and #8 starters mentioned here, we would be lucky to get 2 or 3 innings out of them. Starting Furbush against the Twins or White Sox? Good luck with that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Injuries as well as ineffectiveness. Last year, the Tigers had to send Scherzer and Porcello down to Toledo to get straightened out. We won't have that luxury this year. These 5 guys are going to have to go out there every 5th day, whether they're getting hitters out or not. And if an injury happens, Oliver can step in. And he will be stepping in when double headers start happening. Not having Armando is a mistake, IMO. Yeah, he sucked, but at least he could eat up some innings. With the #7 and #8 starters mentioned here, we would be lucky to get 2 or 3 innings out of them. Starting Furbush against the Twins or White Sox? Good luck with that.

But you're missing the point that if they kept Armando, he would have been in long relief, and Jim rarely takes from the BP to start a game. Its always someone coming up from Toledo or Erie, which is exactly what will happen again this year. Without GG, they're simply going to have one less long reliever... not a huge deal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...