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Landing Crawford is a dream, but getting Werth is more realistic

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I think Inge would be best used as a 2 hitter. It protects him a bit and plays to some of his strenghts. Taking a lot of pitches, running the bases(solid in this regard is all I'm saying) and occasionally providing some pop to drive in Jackson.

No, keep him lower in the order. Inge is not worthy of the additional ABs over the course of a season that 2 would give him versus lower in the order.

If Maggs does find his way back to the club, I wouldn't mind a top of the order of Jackson, Ordonez, Cabrera, Martinez. Should Crawford or Werth find thier way to Detroit in addition to Ordonez, drop Ordonez to 5, install Crawford/Werth to 2.

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I mentioned this in another thread but it may of gotten lost in the riveting RA Dickey discussion, but what about Luke Scott? Baltimore has a gluten of OF and have shopped Scott in the past.

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No, keep him lower in the order. Inge is not worthy of the additional ABs over the course of a season that 2 would give him versus lower in the order.

If Maggs does find his way back to the club, I wouldn't mind a top of the order of Jackson, Ordonez, Cabrera, Martinez. Should Crawford or Werth find thier way to Detroit in addition to Ordonez, drop Ordonez to 5, install Crawford/Werth to 2.

I see what you mean, but many teams use a utility type, scrappy player in the 2 hole. You can always pinch hit for him late too, throw a guy like Boesch in against a flame throwing righty or whatever. Guys like Maggs(who surely can handle the 2 hole) are best served in RBI spots

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I see what you mean, but many teams use a utility type, scrappy player in the 2 hole. You can always pinch hit for him late too, throw a guy like Boesch in against a flame throwing righty or whatever. Guys like Maggs(who surely can handle the 2 hole) are best served in RBI spots

Why not just put the better hitters in a position to get most of the available ABs? How often is PHing at the #2 slot going to be very valuable to win a game?

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I think the number two hole should be used for a guy who gets on base a lot. If he can do all the scrappy gritty move the runner over stuff too, that's fine. But his primary job should be to get on base a lot.

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I don't get all the pessimism for Ordonez. A few points:

1. He looked much better in RF last year - and better conditioned. He did have financial incentive to, of course.

2. Broken ankles heal, even at age 37.

3. The first half of 2009 is a clear outlier in the Ordonez hitting trend, and I do think his wife's health problems affected him.

4. He's not my first choice, but he's still fairly high on my list.

I think it's understandable, but the potential source of the pessimism is also very easily resolved. Ankle is a very complex joint, depending on details, "fully healed" might be anything from 100% range of motion recovery to something significantly less. For a person who makes part of his living by running, the latter can be a big problem.

So with the ankle healed, Maggs can either run and cut approximately as well as he used to or he can't. That's a pretty srtaightforward quantitative proposition. If the Tigs don't have any stopwatches they have no one to blame but themselves :ponder:

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I see what you mean, but many teams use a utility type, scrappy player in the 2 hole. You can always pinch hit for him late too, throw a guy like Boesch in against a flame throwing righty or whatever. Guys like Maggs(who surely can handle the 2 hole) are best served in RBI spots

Most of the "scrappy" players that bat 2nd do so because they rarely strike out. Inge batting 2nd is a pretty horrible fit because his one strength, power, is going to be wasted with only one good batter ahead of him. He's also not ever going to get on base, hurting Cabrera and Martinez' production, and he's going to cost one of them a lot of ABs over the course of the season.

A team should always have it's 4 best hitters in the top 4.

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If Inge would abandon his all-or-nothing hitting approach he could bat 2nd.

Otherwise he's a #6 hitter on a bad team, and a #8 or #9 hitter on this team.

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I'm sorry but is it just me who thinks giving a guy 100 million bucks who has never hit 20 homers, has a .337 career OBP whose major discernable skill will deteriorate with time due to his entire career being played on turf a bad idea? I mean I get hes a great fielder and all, but I would much rather spend the money on Werth, or use resources to trade for a player like Rasmus, Willingham, B.J. Upton, Swisher, Matt Kemp (would look fantastic playing left field instead of center), etc, etc.

Just making a point that if we gave him 6 years 100 million, he'd have to produce about 23 WAR.. thats around 4 a year just to marginally break even on the deal. Carl Crawford at 34 is much less intruiging to me than Carl Crawford at 27-30. Completely different players.

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I'm sorry but is it just me who thinks giving a guy 100 million bucks who has never hit 20 homers, has a .337 career OBP whose major discernable skill will deteriorate with time due to his entire career being played on turf a bad idea? I mean I get hes a great fielder and all, but I would much rather spend the money on Werth, or use resources to trade for a player like Rasmus, Willingham, B.J. Upton, Swisher, Matt Kemp (would look fantastic playing left field instead of center), etc, etc.

Just making a point that if we gave him 6 years 100 million, he'd have to produce about 23 WAR.. thats around 4 a year just to marginally break even on the deal. Carl Crawford at 34 is much less intruiging to me than Carl Crawford at 27-30. Completely different players.

But the debate isn't really whether free agents are marginally worth it or not. They're almost never worth it. The debate is -- if we don't get Crawford, who else can we get instead that's going to make us into a contender?

You have to develop farm talent if you want bang for your buck. If you don't, then you have to pay the price in the FA market. I'd easily take Crawford for 6 years, 100 million. Not much more than that, though. Is it over-paying? Yes. But if we want to win this division, we can't sit around and worry about paying a guy a couple million more than he's actually worth when there's nobody else out there that can match his production.

And what makes you think Werth will age better than Crawford? Werth is a career-ending injury waiting to happen.

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But the debate isn't really whether free agents are marginally worth it or not. They're almost never worth it. The debate is -- if we don't get Crawford, who else can we get instead that's going to make us into a contender?

You have to develop farm talent if you want bang for your buck. If you don't, then you have to pay the price in the FA market. I'd easily take Crawford for 6 years, 100 million. Not much more than that, though. Is it over-paying? Yes. But if we want to win this division, we can't sit around and worry about paying a guy a couple million more than he's actually worth when there's nobody else out there that can match his production.

And what makes you think Werth will age better than Crawford? Werth is a career-ending injury waiting to happen.

Because Werth's game is not solely based on the ability to use his legs. Crawford has discussed how much of a toll the turf has taken on his legs in the past decade. Werth walks and has power. He is already not extremely quick, and an above average fielder at this point in his career, even still. Walks and power average much better than speed does. Btw, I threw out a bunch of names in the previous post that I would be interested in acquiring. None of which would require Turner. Throw Choo onto that list, however, I have a feeling their main asking point would be Turner.

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But the debate isn't really whether free agents are marginally worth it or not. They're almost never worth it. The debate is -- if we don't get Crawford, who else can we get instead that's going to make us into a contender?

This is true. The salary/WAR calculations give us a ballpark estimate of a player's worth, but the salary a player is worth varies a lot from case to case. Free agents are almost always going to cost more than their theoretical worth. If you require a player to have an estimated future WAR which matches his salary, you'll probably never sign any good free agent.

Edited by tiger337

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Because Werth's game is not solely based on the ability to use his legs. Crawford has discussed how much of a toll the turf has taken on his legs in the past decade. Werth walks and has power. He is already not extremely quick, and an above average fielder at this point in his career, even still. Walks and power average much better than speed does. Btw, I threw out a bunch of names in the previous post that I would be interested in acquiring. None of which would require Turner. Throw Choo onto that list, however, I have a feeling their main asking point would be Turner.

Crawford's talent isn't solely based on his legs. He also has moderate home run power and very good gap power. I'd love to see him consistently ripping triples in to the gap in Comerica. His speed may decline a bit, but never to the point where he is slower and a worse defender than Werth. Crawford's not just fast. He's very fast. And he doesn't just steal bases with his speed -- he has incredible reflexes and gets outstanding jumps. And, although speed does decline with age, he's got a pretty high point from which to decline. He'll definitely be faster at age 34 than everyone else in the league at age 34. The one thing that does worry me is that he doesn't walk a ton, which means he relies heavily on bat speed for his offensive production. I think his bat speed is more likely to become a concern than his leg speed.

And, as I've said before, Werth has played exactly two seasons where he has started over 140 games. Given that he's also already 2 years older than Crawford...I just don't know how you can compare the two.

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This is true. The salary/WAR calculations give us a ballpark estimate of a player's worth, but the salary a player is worth varies a lot from case to case. Free agents are almost also going to cost more than their theoretical worth. If you require a player to have an estimated future WAR which matches his salary, you'll probably never sign any good free agent.

Jeter's Predictable Predicament - NYTimes.com

I don't know if you've read this or not, but later on in the article, he brings up the concept of "Winner's curse." I think it relates well to the discussion on Free Agents.

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Jeter's Predictable Predicament - NYTimes.com

I don't know if you've read this or not, but later on in the article, he brings up the concept of "Winner's curse." I think it relates well to the discussion on Free Agents.

I'll never feel sorry for the Yankees, but they are in a no-win situation with Jeter. Every indicator is that he is close to done as a hitter. When a guy over 37, without sustaining any particular injury to explain it, drops 130 OPS points from his lifetime average, and even decays from the 1st half to the 2nd half (unlike say Maggs, who really turned it back on after a 1st half slump in '09), he should have the sense to start thinking retirement, and certainly should have the decency not to ask the team he is supposedly so loyal to to commit to more than one yr.

In Jeter's case its not even like he's owed some residual value from unfairly compensated prior seasons, they've paid him 120 mill freaking bucks over the last 6 yrs.

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I'll never feel sorry for the Yankees, but they are in a no-win situation with Jeter. Every indicator is that he is close to done as a hitter. When a guy over 37, without sustaining any particular injury to explain it, drops 130 OPS points from his lifetime average, and even decays from the 1st half to the 2nd half (unlike say Maggs, who really turned it back on after a 1st half slump in '09), he should have the sense to start thinking retirement, and certainly should have the decency not to ask the team he is supposedly so loyal to to commit to more than one yr.

In Jeter's case its not even like he's owed some residual value from unfairly compensated prior seasons, they've paid him 120 mill freaking bucks over the last 6 yrs.

Not really disagreeing with anything you said but I expect Jeter to have a bounce back year offensively next year. His numbers dropped substantially last year and I don't think he all of the sudden lost all that bat speed in just one year. He has been a model of consistency his whole career and with his style of hitting, I would expect a bounce back next year. I would not be surprised at all if he hits around .300 with and .800 OPS next year.

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Crawford's talent isn't solely based on his legs. He also has moderate home run power and very good gap power. I'd love to see him consistently ripping triples in to the gap in Comerica. His speed may decline a bit, but never to the point where he is slower and a worse defender than Werth. Crawford's not just fast. He's very fast. And he doesn't just steal bases with his speed -- he has incredible reflexes and gets outstanding jumps. And, although speed does decline with age, he's got a pretty high point from which to decline. He'll definitely be faster at age 34 than everyone else in the league at age 34. The one thing that does worry me is that he doesn't walk a ton, which means he relies heavily on bat speed for his offensive production. I think his bat speed is more likely to become a concern than his leg speed.

And, as I've said before, Werth has played exactly two seasons where he has started over 140 games. Given that he's also already 2 years older than Crawford...I just don't know how you can compare the two.

Yes, it would be great to see Crawford run for days after hitting a ball into left center field. However, realsitically.. how many triples would he hit in Comerica that he wouldnt normally? I get hes a great base stealer, however, if you think at age 33-35 hes going to steal more than 30 bases, come on. I bet he steals around 40 next year, his base stealing is already declining. Just for the record as well, go look at Werth's UZR. May not be crawford-like, but its pretty good. You're also right, he doesn't walk very often at all, and his babip will drop when he gets slower.

Dont discount the other season Werth played 134 games, either. Basically, hes played 3 full seasons (where crawford has played 8). That's a good thing, not a bad thing. Crawford has much more wear and tear on his body than does worth. He's played 500 more games in his career. The last three years in Philly are not an aboration, whats the difference if he had 6 good years like that from 02-07... Crawford isnt the same player he was in 2004 anymore, either, you know.

Basically, heres what I'm saying... I do not dislike crawford, I just would rather save the 30 million and get a player who hits for much more power, walks more often, and plays at the VERY least average defense over someone who does not hit for very much power, doesn't walk very much, plays great D, and steals some bases.. not that I'd be mad with either one.

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Dont discount the other season Werth played 134 games, either. Basically, hes played 3 full seasons (where crawford has played 8). That's a good thing, not a bad thing. Crawford has much more wear and tear on his body than does worth. He's played 500 more games in his career.

So, by your logic, Carlos Guillen is a better bet to stay healthy next year than Miguel Cabrera. After all, Guillen has spent so much time resting on the DL, and Cabrera has been wearing himself out staying healthy all that time.

:dead:

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So, by your logic, Carlos Guillen is a better bet to stay healthy next year than Miguel Cabrera. After all, Guillen has spent so much time resting on the DL, and Cabrera has been wearing himself out staying healthy all that time.

:dead:

What are you talking about? Werth has been healthy the last three years straight. Guillen hasnt been healthy since 'Nam.

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What are you talking about? Werth has been healthy the last three years straight. Guillen hasnt been healthy since 'Nam.
Forget Werth and Carlos for a moment, your casual reference to something that occurred before his birth is not tasteful to those who had a stake in "Nam". Choose your metaphors more appropriately please.

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Dont discount the other season Werth played 134 games, either. Basically, hes played 3 full seasons (where crawford has played 8). That's a good thing, not a bad thing. Crawford has much more wear and tear on his body than does worth. He's played 500 more games in his career. The last three years in Philly are not an aboration, whats the difference if he had 6 good years like that from 02-07... Crawford isnt the same player he was in 2004 anymore, either, you know.

I'm gonna go ahead and debunk this crazy theory and say that being injured all the time is far more tolling on a body than always being healthy. They're playing baseball, being healthy and playing all the time isn't hurting him.

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Why is it more "realistic" to sign Werth than Crawford? Because he will cost less? Because fewer teams would be in the mix? I'd be fine with adding Werth, but I completely reject the notion that Crawford won't sign here. It seems to me that getting Martinez early on will do nothing but help us sign other players. Nobody wants to be on a sinking ship, & seeing that other players are coming here takes away any negative stigma of signing in Motown.

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I just worry that other positions on the team wont be upgraded adequatley if the Tigers spend 15mill+/yr on Werth or Crawford. Either player could fill out the middle of the order with Cabby and Martinez but then we're left without a strong candiate to hit second. I mean, DD could pull something out of his butt again and trade for an inexpensive young left fielder who can hit 2nd and be under team control for the next 3-5 years (ala A-Jax).

Unless DD has some tricks up his sleve, I'd rather him still make that trade for a 2nd hitter, as well as add another starting pitcher for the back of the rotation, an arm for the pen, and re-sgin Maggs.

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I just worry that other positions on the team wont be upgraded adequatley if the Tigers spend 15mill+/yr on Werth or Crawford. Either player could fill out the middle of the order with Cabby and Martinez but then we're left without a strong candiate to hit second. I mean, DD could pull something out of his butt again and trade for an inexpensive young left fielder who can hit 2nd and be under team control for the next 3-5 years (ala A-Jax).Unless DD has some tricks up his sleve, I'd rather him still make that trade for a 2nd hitter, as well as add another starting pitcher for the back of the rotation, an arm for the pen, and re-sgin Maggs.

First of all, ive heard differnt tallys from multiple sources on how much money we had to spend going into the offseason. Ill assume 55 million. We signed Benoit for 5.5 million anually and Martinez for 12.5 million annually so we've only spent 18 million of the 55 million, which unless you arnt too great with math would leave us with 37 million. Assumeing Illitch is willing to spend the rest of that, we could easily sign another hittter and fill out any other positional needs we may have.

And the chance that DD pulls another Austin Jackson out of his hat, not a chance. Then again its dave, he might just wave his magic wand

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