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SpartanValor

#10 Michigan State @ Penn State

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MSU had the most impressive win of the three, had the toughest strength of schedule, and beat the most bowl eligible teams. They should absolutely be in discussion about the Sugar Bowl, let alone the Rose Bowl.

While the national assumption is that OSU will get the Sugar Bowl, MSU has some really good talking points - and Hollis talking directly to Sugar Bowl reps will help negate any perception issues. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out.

Edited by monkeynuts

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Does anyone here actually think msu is better than osu? I know the Wisconsin game matters but so do the other 11. Msu has three close wins to mediocre teams and a blowout loss to a mediocre team. Osu has two close wins against mediocre teams and a blowout loss to a very good team.

Edit: and one of those close wins by osu was the ill game that was never much in doubt.

Edited by Shelton

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Does anyone here actually think msu is better than osu? I know the Wisconsin game matters but so do the other 11. Msu has three close wins to mediocre teams and a blowout loss to a mediocre team. Osu has two close wins against mediocre teams and a blowout loss to a very good team.

I don't think MSU could beat OSU but we will never know. Which stinks.

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Absolutely. I've said it before, and I'll say it again -- it's really too bad MSU didn't play OSU this year. It cost them the Rose Bowl.

As much as it may have cost them the rose bowl it also gave them 33% of a conference championship. I think that's a fair trade.

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I don't know if TV ratings make a difference or not. I do know that how well a schools fan base travels(even though it gets made fun of a lot) does matter. Ohio State has an overall reputation as a fan base that will show up in bunches wherever their team is. I am not saying Michigan State wouldn't, but perception often trumps reality.

We've never been to a BCS bowl. Selling tickets would be a non-issue.

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Stating Michigan State's case for the BCS - Big Ten Blog - ESPN

All three teams tied atop the Big Ten with identical records (11-1 overall, 7-1 in Big Ten play), and because Michigan State and Ohio State don't play, the team ranked highest in the final BCS standings earns the automatic berth. It's an imperfect tiebreaker in a league without a championship game until 2011, and Dantonio saw the potential drawback when the Big Ten coaches voted on the method two springs ago.

"It was a 10-1 vote," Dantonio told ESPN.com earlier Monday. "Who do you think voted against it? If we were using the same rules [before the 2009], we would be going [to the Rose Bowl] because we were the ones that had not gone [for the longest period]."

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It's a shame that it all essentially comes down to the timing of your loss, but that's the system we have, and we all knew it coming in. That said, I like seeing some of these talking points get tossed around:

- By most every measure I've seen, MSU had the toughest schedule of the 3.

- 8 of MSU's opponents are bowl eligible, more than both UW and OSU played (5 and 7 respectively).

- The winning percentages of all the teams that MSU played was .541, compared to .517 for Ohio State and .486 for Wisconsin.

- Interestingly enough: MSU turned on more TV sets in the Big Ten than any other team.

- Michigan State's six games shown on ABC, ESPN and ESPN2 averaged 4.37 million households. Ohio State's six games on those networks averaged 4.12 million. Iowa was third (3.96 million in seven games), followed by Michigan (3.49 in seven games) and Penn State (2.63 in six games).

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It's a shame that it all essentially comes down to the timing of your loss, but that's the system we have, and we all knew it coming in. That said, I like tossing around some of these talking points:

By most every measure I've seen, MSU had the toughest schedule of the 3.

8 of MSU's opponents are bowl eligible, more than both UW and OSU played (5 and 7 respectively).

The winning percentages of all the teams that MSU played was .541, compared to .517 for Ohio State and .486 for Wisconsin.

Interestingly enough: MSU turned on more TV sets in the Big Ten than any other team.

Michigan State's six games shown on ABC, ESPN and ESPN2 averaged 4.37 million households. Ohio State's six games on those networks averaged 4.12 million.

Iowa was third (3.96 million in seven games), followed by Michigan (3.49 in seven games) and Penn State (2.63 in six games).

Not an attack on MSU, but the opponent Win % isnt that big a deal for me, for example beating a 8-4 MAC team is less impressive to me than beating say a 6-6 SEC team, but it wouldnt be if you used a SOS that included just opponent Win %. Still Sagarin has MSU schedule harder as well, but bowl eligible teams played and opponent win % can be misleading.

Ya it sucks that the Big Ten didnt have a title game yet and that MSU finishes 3rd in the 3 way tie, but honestly no system of rating teams that I found (not just timing of loss considered, computer polls do not take this into account) has MSU ahead of either team. All human polls and the BCS computer have MSU 3rd of the 3 teams. State really isn't even that close in the BCS to either of them, TCU is closer to the title game than State is to OSU.

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Hmmmm...intersting blurb on FOX 2 in Detroit tonight. I was watching sports and they were talking to Hollis. At the end, Jennifer Hammond mentioned that Hollis said he was on the phone for an hour with Sugar Bowl officials on Sunday night. This ain't over, folks.

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I think it's pretty obvious, though, that human voters never move teams down unless they lose. And they rarely jump teams above other teams that also win. Can you really claim that you believe that timing doesn't matter? If MSU had lost to Wisconsin at the beginning of the season (then Iowa had beaten Wisconsin but lost to MSU) then MSU would be ranked 1st of the 3 B10 teams. It's just the way these things go.

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Not an attack on MSU, but the opponent Win % isnt that big a deal for me, for example beating a 8-4 MAC team is less impressive to me than beating say a 6-6 SEC team, but it wouldnt be if you used a SOS that included just opponent Win %. Still Sagarin has MSU schedule harder as well, but bowl eligible teams played and opponent win % can be misleading.

The problem with that statement is that we really aren't separating wins over SEC .500 clubs and 8-4 MAC clubs...Essentially we're differentiating wins among 6-6 MAC teams and 8-4 MAC teams or 5-7 Pac 10 teams or 7-5 ND teams etc...That said, do you have a SOS format that suggests that MSU didn't play a tougher overall slate? The NCAA's "RPI" nonsense, Jeff Sagarin, TeamRanking Power ratings...They all suggest that MSU played a more difficult schedule.

Ya it sucks that the Big Ten didnt have a title game yet and that MSU finishes 3rd in the 3 way tie, but honestly no system of rating teams that I found (not just timing of loss considered, computer polls do not take this into account) has MSU ahead of either team. All human polls and the BCS computer have MSU 3rd of the 3 teams. State really isn't even that close in the BCS to either of them, TCU is closer to the title game than State is to OSU.

Again, all mostly predicated on the timing of the loss. Them's the breaks.

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I think it's pretty obvious, though, that human voters never move teams down unless they lose. And they rarely jump teams above other teams that also win. Can you really claim that you believe that timing doesn't matter? If MSU had lost to Wisconsin at the beginning of the season (then Iowa had beaten Wisconsin but lost to MSU) then MSU would be ranked 1st of the 3 B10 teams. It's just the way these things go.

I didnt say timing doesnt matter, just that it doesnt matter as much as MSU fans seem to believe. The computer polls would not be swayed by this, and MSU is still 3rd of the 3 teams in the computer rankings. Its not just the losses, MSU has had a tough time with some mediocre teams and Wisconsin has been destroying people lately. Who knows what would have happened if the losses were arranged different, but Im not so sure its a given that MSU finishes towards the top like you believe. And also, Wisconsin's loss was on the road to a top 10 team. OSU loss was on the road to a top 10 team. MSU loss was by 30 pts on the road to an unranked team. That also plays a part.

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I didnt say timing doesnt matter, just that it doesnt matter as much as MSU fans seem to believe. The computer polls would not be swayed by this, and MSU is still 3rd of the 3 teams in the computer rankings. Its not just the losses, MSU has had a tough time with some mediocre teams and Wisconsin has been destroying people lately. Who knows what would have happened if the losses were arranged different, but Im not so sure its a given that MSU finishes towards the top like you believe. And also, Wisconsin's loss was on the road to a top 10 team. OSU loss was on the road to a top 10 team. MSU lost was by 30 pts on the road to an unranked team. That also plays a part.

That's totally false.

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Absolutely. I've said it before, and I'll say it again -- it's really too bad MSU didn't play OSU this year. It cost them the Rose Bowl.

we're pretty bummed we didn't get to play you either.....

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Interesting take on SOS. Was state's non con schedule really that much tougher than wisc or osu, enough to overcome who beat whom in the big ten and who lost to whom? I mean, we are trying to figure out which big ten team is best, no?

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Interesting take on SOS. Was state's non con schedule really that much tougher than wisc or osu, enough to overcome who beat whom in the big ten and who lost to whom? I mean, we are trying to figure out which big ten team is best, no?

I personally would say no.

But when you're dealing with the fact that you're not in the BCS essentially/primarily because of the timing of your loss, and you're trying to make an argument for why you belong in that conversation - you work with what you've got!

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Here's why Michigan State won't get the at-large over Ohio State

- Ohio State lost on the road to Wisconsin, the number 5 team in the country in a night game by a margin of 13 points whereas MSU lost on the road to Iowa, an unranked team, where Iowa dominated every part of the game and MSU lost by 31!

- Ohio State pretty much dominated everyone else they played except Iowa/Illinois

- Ohio State stands at number 2 in Total Defense... in the country. MSU comes in at #31

- Ohio State comes in at #3 in Scoring Defense where MSU comes in at #24

- Ohio State comes in at #10 in Scoring Offense.... MSU is #39

- Ohio State is #17 in Total Offense... MSU is #34

- Ohio State is #14 in Rushing Offense... MSU is #41

- Ohio State is #6 in Rushing Defense... MSU is #20

- Ohio State is #6 in Passing Defense... MSU is #49

- Ohio State came in as Pre-season number 2 after dominating Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State and Oregon virtually returned the same teams with a few losses. This is the same Oregon team who will most likely be playing in the National Championship.

- MSU pre-season ranking wasn't great after losing in their bowl game from last season.

- While Eastern Michigan and Marshall certainly aren't teams to brag about beating, they're better than any FCS team.

Here's MSU argument:

- We beat Wisconsin

- Iowa never happened

- North Colorado State or whatever FCS team that was never happened

- MSU beats Ohio State in passing offense. MSU is #45, Ohio State is #55.

- We beat Wisconsin

Sparty - this is going to be arrogant but I'll say it anyways. Be happy about the Capital One Bowl and having a share of the Big Ten Championship. If you played Ohio State, you probably wouldn't be able to claim a share of your guy's first Big Ten Championship since 1990. This is MSU's 7th overall Big Ten Championship for Football... Jim Tressel has won 7 Big Ten Championships in the last decade. MSU was the last team to control their own destiny and crapped the bed at Iowa.

Edited by Ranger

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Here's MSU argument:

- We beat Wisconsin

- Iowa never happened

- North Colorado State or whatever FCS team that was never happened

- MSU beats Ohio State in passing offense. MSU is #45, Ohio State is #55.

- We beat Wisconsin

I haven't heard any of this.

except "We beat Wisconsin convincingly."

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I didnt say timing doesnt matter, just that it doesnt matter as much as MSU fans seem to believe. The computer polls would not be swayed by this, and MSU is still 3rd of the 3 teams in the computer rankings. Its not just the losses, MSU has had a tough time with some mediocre teams and Wisconsin has been destroying people lately. Who knows what would have happened if the losses were arranged different, but Im not so sure its a given that MSU finishes towards the top like you believe. And also, Wisconsin's loss was on the road to a top 10 team. OSU loss was on the road to a top 10 team. MSU loss was by 30 pts on the road to an unranked team. That also plays a part.

MOV isn't supposed to be used in BCS rankings. And its specifically not used in the computer polls.

If we had received votes in preseason polls, or lost to Iowa before Wisconsin or OSU got their losses, I find it hard to believe we'd be behind them at the end of the season.

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If you could choose your schedule, would you rather miss out on playing:

A. OSU and Indiana?

B. MSU and Northwestern?

C. PSU and Illinois?

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If you could choose your schedule, would you rather miss out on playing:

A. OSU and Indiana?

B. MSU and Northwestern?

C. PSU and Illinois?

OSU and Indiana....If you are a good team you should beat all the 2nd teams listed and Ohio St is the best of all the first teams listed. Dont think its that tough of a decision.

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