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belcherboy

When do you push the "fire" button on Rich Rod?

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So how were our offensive stats against Iowa and their top 10 defense?

Not good enough IMO. 7 points in the first 3 quarters put us in a hole that we couldn't recover from. I mean we were down 21 in the 4th quarter (28-7), so I'm not sure what your point is. I was hopeful for a comeback, but our defense just can't stop anyone consistently.

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The problem I have with the Illinois offensive stats is that their 3 losses (I believe HALF their games) have come against VERY good defensive teams. I think their offensive stats are little misleading, in the same way that Michigan's offensive stats are a little misleading by the poor defenses they played in the first 5 games.

Illinois' three losses came against teams that combined have ONLY 1 loss.

I like your enthusiasm! I'm just not convinced that Illinois isn't a pretty good team, that has had the misfortune of a TOUGH schedule (Missouri, MSU, and Ohio State) We'll see in a few weeks!

by the way, Missouri is ranked #29, MSU #28, and OSU #6 for team defense. I can understand why their offensive numbers have hurt like they have, when half your games are played against top 30 defenses.

Why are you stopping at game five? This is a reason why I question your motives in this thread. Do the numbers put up against MSU and IA have no bearing on your future outlook? Or are you just seeing an L next to those two so they don't count?

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The problem I have with the Illinois offensive stats is that their 3 losses (I believe HALF their games) have come against VERY good defensive teams. I think their offensive stats are little misleading, in the same way that Michigan's offensive stats are a little misleading by the poor defenses they played in the first 5 games.

Illinois' three losses came against teams that combined have ONLY 1 loss.

I like your enthusiasm! I'm just not convinced that Illinois isn't a pretty good team, that has had the misfortune of a TOUGH schedule (Missouri, MSU, and Ohio State) We'll see in a few weeks! I see them as being a strong, middle of the pack B10 team above Indiana, Minnesota, PSU, maybe even NW (although they have played VERY well this year). At least I don't see them being any more bottom tier than Michigan at this point.

by the way, Missouri is ranked #29, MSU #28, and OSU #6 for team defense. I can understand why their offensive numbers have hurt like they have, when half your games are played against top 30 defenses.

1. Illinois' QB is young and not very accurate.

2. M put up over 500 yards against Iowa, who was top 5 in total D IIRC. And if Molk and Shaw get healthy, I would expect even better results.

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Why are you stopping at game five? This is a reason why I question your motives in this thread. Do the numbers put up against MSU and IA have no bearing on your future outlook? Or are you just seeing an L next to those two so they don't count?

I believe they give us a bleak future outlook. We pretty much got killed by both teams. Michigan was down 21 in the fourth to Iowa, before a late rally, and lost to MSU by 17, ONLY scoring 17 points and being down 21 to start the 4th quarter. Comparing those two games to the first 5 makes the final 5 games MUCH scarier IMO.

When comparing the first 5 games to the last 2, IMO it looks REALLY bad for Michigan. They just aren't scoring! If you take away the late rally's by Michigan in the 4th quarter of the past two games, they have scored 17 points! In 6 out of the past 8 quarters, Michigan has only scored 17 points. Their points, the past two games, seem only to come when it is pretty much too late! That hurts the "great offense" argument by Michigan supporters, does it not?

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1. Illinois' QB is young and not very accurate.

2. M put up over 500 yards against Iowa, who was top 5 in total D IIRC. And if Molk and Shaw get healthy, I would expect even better results.

Again, I'm down with the Michigan over Illinois vibe you guys got going. I'm just not betting on this defense being able to stop them. The past two games the Michigan offense hasn't been able to keep up (I'm talking points)...it really hasn't even been close. I don't expect that from Illinois, but I am remembering that Indiana and UMass had no problems keeping up with Michigan's offensive train.

I'm expecting the best against them, but I'm just not confident that they don't have a good shot at coming into the Big House and stealing a game from us!

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For some perspective... If Michigan plays the season out at an above average case, they are looking at about 7-5 plus a bowl. 7-5 is Lloyd Carr's worst record. The standard should be higher and frankly RR should be gone if they can't go 9-3 on a regular basis. If they wait too long, little/big brother will swap.

So because they go 7-5 this year, which was LC's worst record, he should get fired because he isn't going consistently 9-3? I don't buy that. The argument is whether or not people think he can do that in the future, not this year. This years goal is to show progress, so 7-5 would be fine by this standard. Lloyd Carr went 7-5 with way more talent during a time the program was established. He damn near went 7-5 again his last year. If one thing is clear it is that what Lloyd Carr did should not be the standard we judge our coaches by.

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I believe they give us a bleak future outlook. We pretty much got killed by both teams. Michigan was down 21 in the fourth to Iowa, before a late rally, and lost to MSU by 17, ONLY scoring 17 points and being down 21 to start the 4th quarter. Comparing those two games to the first 5 makes the final 5 games MUCH scarier IMO.

When comparing the first 5 games to the last 2, IMO it looks REALLY bad for Michigan. They just aren't scoring! If you take away the late rally's by Michigan in the 4th quarter of the past two games, they have scored 17 points! In 6 out of the past 8 quarters, Michigan has only scored 17 points. Their points, the past two games, seem only to come when it is pretty much too late! That hurts the "great offense" argument by Michigan supporters, does it not?

LOL if you only count the bad quarters they suck!

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I believe they give us a bleak future outlook. We pretty much got killed by both teams. Michigan was down 21 in the fourth to Iowa, before a late rally, and lost to MSU by 17, ONLY scoring 17 points and being down 21 to start the 4th quarter. Comparing those two games to the first 5 makes the final 5 games MUCH scarier IMO.

When comparing the first 5 games to the last 2, IMO it looks REALLY bad for Michigan. They just aren't scoring! If you take away the late rally's by Michigan in the 4th quarter of the past two games, they have scored 17 points! In 6 out of the past 8 quarters, Michigan has only scored 17 points. Their points, the past two games, seem only to come when it is pretty much too late! That hurts the "great offense" argument by Michigan supporters, does it not?

How many times were they in the red zone? How many turnovers? How many penalties to kill drives? Combination of good defenses and youthful mistakes.

So no, for me it doesn't kill the argument, UM moved the ball but didn't finish. Part of this is coaching and part of this is youth, we will see if both progress over the next five games.

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LOL if you only count the bad quarters they suck!

I'm not ONLY counting the bad quarters. I'm putting it in perspective. When you are down 21 points in the 4th quarter, what is the other team doing?? Managing the clock. They change their game plan. They become less aggressive, etc.

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LOL if you only count the bad quarters they suck!

I noticed the parsing as well and he continues to wonder why some question his motives in this thread.

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I'm not ONLY counting the bad quarters. I'm putting it in perspective. When you are down 21 points in the 4th quarter, what is the other team doing?? Managing the clock. They change their game plan. They become less aggressive, etc.

Except that wasn't the case. Iowa remained pretty aggressive despite being up 21. You have to remember this is Iowa and their game plan doesn't change much when they are up by 3 or up by 28.

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How many times were they in the red zone? How many turnovers? How many penalties to kill drives? Combination of good defenses and youthful mistakes.

So no, for me it doesn't kill the argument, UM moved the ball but didn't finish. Part of this is coaching and part of this is youth, we will see if both progress over the next five games.

I absolutely LOVE your enthusiasm about the future, and really do share partially in it, as I think dumb mistakes have kept Michigan back offensively the past 2 games.

My question for you is, do you see the defense getting even slightly better this year? And if so, why? I just don't see it, and would love to! Honestly, I just don't see much of a future defensively this year and next (although maybe when some guys get healthy again, we could see a big bump!)

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Except that wasn't the case. Iowa remained pretty aggressive despite being up 21. You have to remember this is Iowa and their game plan doesn't change much when they are up by 3 or up by 28.

Fair enough, I guess I view a 21 point fourth quarter lead differently, and find it unacceptable for good offensive teams to put themselves in that position for 2 straight games. Personally, I never really felt like Michigan was going to be able to win either of the last 2 games when down 21 in the fourth quarter. They made them exciting and deserve credit for that, but IMO, they won't beat any team left on their schedule if they are down 21 points in the 4th quarter....not with the defense that we put on the field.

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I absolutely LOVE your enthusiasm about the future, and really do share partially in it, as I think dumb mistakes have kept Michigan back offensively the past 2 games.

My question for you is, do you see the defense getting even slightly better this year? And if so, why? I just don't see it, and would love to! Honestly, I just don't see much of a future defensively this year and next (although maybe when some guys get healthy again, we could see a big bump!)

I don't see the defense getting much better this year but I think we all knew that going into this year. Actually the defense is holding teams to about their average offensive output, which isn't too bad when you consider our situation. The defense will be better next year when these young guys not only have a full year of game experience under their belt, but off season weight training, spring practice and another fall camp to work.

I don't think trying to cherry pick whether or not the defense getting better resolves the question in this thread. What Brandon and everyone else wants to see is progress and to see that things appear going in the right direction. So far this year we have seen a better football team than last year, and if we win 7 or 8 games I see no reason to pull the plug.

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Fair enough, I guess I view a 21 point fourth quarter lead differently, and find it unacceptable for good offensive teams to put themselves in that position for 2 straight games. Personally, I never really felt like Michigan was going to be able to win either of the last 2 games when down 21 in the fourth quarter. They made them exciting and deserve credit for that, but IMO, they won't beat any team left on their schedule if they are down 21 points in the 4th quarter....not with the defense that we put on the field.

Huh? We are viewing a 21 point lead the same way. Your statement was that Iowa decided to sit on the ball with that 21 point lead which is why Michigan came back. I was just simply pointing out that wasn't the case. A 21 point lead is a 21 point lead.

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I don't see the defense getting much better this year but I think we all knew that going into this year. Actually the defense is holding teams to about their average offensive output, which isn't too bad when you consider our situation. The defense will be better next year when these young guys not only have a full year of game experience under their belt, but off season weight training, spring practice and another fall camp to work.

I don't think trying to cherry pick whether or not the defense getting better resolves the question in this thread. What Brandon and everyone else wants to see is progress and to see that things appear going in the right direction. So far this year we have seen a better football team than last year, and if we win 7 or 8 games I see no reason to pull the plug.

I see losing 5 of the last 7 games as being a valid reason for dismissal, but I wouldn't be upset to see RR back next year.

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So because they go 7-5 this year, which was LC's worst record, he should get fired because he isn't going consistently 9-3? I don't buy that. The argument is whether or not people think he can do that in the future, not this year. This years goal is to show progress, so 7-5 would be fine by this standard. Lloyd Carr went 7-5 with way more talent during a time the program was established. He damn near went 7-5 again his last year. If one thing is clear it is that what Lloyd Carr did should not be the standard we judge our coaches by.

Rodriguez is the reason they are climbing out of this!

Hey, it's your funeral...

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Huh? We are viewing a 21 point lead the same way. Your statement was that Iowa decided to sit on the ball with that 21 point lead which is why Michigan came back. I was just simply pointing out that wasn't the case. A 21 point lead is a 21 point lead.

I said that teams most likely change the way they play when up 3 TD's in the 4th quarter. You obviously disagreed. I think the point probably carries some weight. Probably 90%+ games where 1 team has a 3 TD lead in the 4th quarter, result in wins for the team leading. That stat probably increases when putting in the fact that the leading team is a top 25 team.

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I see losing 5 of the last 7 games as being a valid reason for dismissal, but I wouldn't be upset to see RR back next year.

I am just looking at the larger picture than just how her performed in the second half of the year. I am looking at the full 12 game slate.

2008: 3-9

2009: 5-7

2010: 7-5

To me that is a steady increase and progress. Just looking at what we have to work with now, and the direction of the program, I would expect that in 2011 and 2012 we will be competing for big ten titles again. That is if we do manage 7-5 this year. If we don't then we obviously are not showing the progress you would like to see, and then we should evaluate whether or not to stay the course. I just think it is better to let the entire year play out, then look back on it and see how far you have come, and what you see going forward.

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Rodriguez is the reason they are climbing out of this!

Hey, it's your funeral...

Yeah that is true to a point. Personally when RichRod got hired I thought to myself. 2008 is going to be rough, and this is going to take a couple of years to work. I don't actually think it is a bad thing to take a couple of lumps in order to achieve your ultimate goals. To me, the ceiling under RR is higher than it was in the final 6-7 years of the Carr regime, which is why I am willing to take some lumps first and reap the benefits later.

FWIW, I think the Bowl streak was going to end in 2008 regardless of who the coach was, and yes, even Lloyd Carr.

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I am just looking at the larger picture than just how her performed in the second half of the year. I am looking at the full 12 game slate.

2008: 3-9

2009: 5-7

2010: 7-5

To me that is a steady increase and progress. Just looking at what we have to work with now, and the direction of the program, I would expect that in 2011 and 2012 we will be competing for big ten titles again. That is if we do manage 7-5 this year. If we don't then we obviously are not showing the progress you would like to see, and then we should evaluate whether or not to stay the course. I just think it is better to let the entire year play out, then look back on it and see how far you have come, and what you see going forward.

I don't think we have progressed at ALL in our Big Ten play. I put more weight on that than OOC play. We are TERRIBLE in the Big Ten. I do hope that changes these next 5 games, but I am nervous!

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Illinois is basically a must win game, they have a solid defense but Michigan's offense should be able to put up a lot of points on a solid defense. They can't pass the ball at all which should give Michigan's defense a chance to get some stops.

If they manage to lose that game it would definitely change my mind on a lot of things. I could understand losing to PSU to some extent given that it's a road game at night, but if they lose 2 of 3 (or 3 of 3!) against PSU/Illinois/Purdue I think that's just about the final nail in the coffin for Rodriguez. And I say that as probably his biggest supporter on earth.

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I absolutely LOVE your enthusiasm about the future, and really do share partially in it, as I think dumb mistakes have kept Michigan back offensively the past 2 games.

My question for you is, do you see the defense getting even slightly better this year? And if so, why? I just don't see it, and would love to! Honestly, I just don't see much of a future defensively this year and next (although maybe when some guys get healthy again, we could see a big bump!)

Cautious future optimism while realizing how perilous the RR situation is.

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