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JonBenke

MLB Winter Meetings/Off Season Thread - 2010

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I don't like Dunn.

That's probably only because it sounds like "dumb", and I don't want someone like that on this team.

Here's to hoping Dave does the right thing here.

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Those who think that Dunn is just postering by saying he doesn't want to DH, or that he'll do it for a bit more money, are kidding themselves. The guy already has more money than he can spend in his lifetime, and is going to get strong offers from NL squads. Dunn simply wants to play in the field, and it's going to take a lot more than $2-3 extra million/year to get him to become a full-time DH.

Sure, if we threw $20 million/year at him he may have second thoughts. But that would be a horrific waste of money. There will be one or two possibilities at DH that we can take off the scrapheap (Berkman, Thome, etc.) that will give us approximately the same production as Dunn at 1/3 the cost in terms of both dollars and years. Given the track record of aging, one-dimensional sluggers in a non-steriod era, Dunn's extra production simply isn't worth the extra cost and risk compared to someone like Berkman or Thome.

I'm hardly Jayson Werth's biggest fan, but overall he is a much better investment than Dunn. Slot Werth in the #3 spot, and Thome in the 5 hole, and this offense is significantly improved, more so than it would be by blowing our wad on Dunn.

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I would just like to suggest the batting average with RISP stat really isn't as meaningful as being suggested.

It ignores walks when a batter comes up with RISP and it also ignores power.

Why are we surprised that a low average, high power, high walk hitter would look bad by looking solely at BA with RISP to evaluate how good of a run producer he is likely to be? It focuses on his weakness and ignores his strengths. Shoot, you might as well just use overall batting average to evaluate the hitters if that is how you are going to do it.

And another thing, if Dunn's poor batting average with RISP is so damaging to his ability to produce runs, why does he create runs at a much higher rate than Victor Martinez (especially when factoring outs used)? Or score more runs per 162 games played? Or drive in almost as many per 162-games played?

One last thing - despite having a much worse batting average than Martinez with RISP, Dunn actually has a higher career OBP and a higher career SLG than Martinez with RISP. Dunn has a career 0.890 OPS with RISP. We should be so lucky as to always have a 0.890 OPS guy come to the plate with RISP.

+1

Good work Mr. Bigs.

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I don't care about Dunn's strikeouts or base running. Those are minor issues. He is a very productive offensive player. I do care about his lack of defensive skill. I don't want them moving Cabrera around to accommodate Dunn and I don' want Dunn in the outfield at all. Either he's willing to DH or I don't want him on the Tigers.

I'm not too happy about the rumor of a two-year deal for Peralta. He's a below average defender at a very important position and I'm hoping that he's one year stopgap at the very least.

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I don't care about Dunn's strikeouts or base running. Those are minor issues. He is a very productive offensive player. I do care about his lack of defensive skill. I don't want them moving Cabrera around to accommodate Dunn and I don' want Dunn in the outfield at all. Either he's willing to DH or I don't want him on the Tigers.

I'm not too happy about the rumor of a two-year deal for Peralta. He's a below average defender at a very important position and I'm hoping that he's one year stopgap at the very least.

Agree on both statements.

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I don't care about Dunn's strikeouts or base running. Those are minor issues. He is a very productive offensive player. I do care about his lack of defensive skill. I don't want them moving Cabrera around to accommodate Dunn and I don' want Dunn in the outfield at all. Either he's willing to DH or I don't want him on the Tigers.

I'm not too happy about the rumor of a two-year deal for Peralta. He's a below average defender at a very important position and I'm hoping that he's one year stopgap at the very least.

I agree, unless he wants to just DH, forget him. I think Vmart has more versatility.

I think the Tigers see the 20 HRs and 80 RBIs and they need the production.

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I'm not too happy about the rumor of a two-year deal for Peralta. He's a below average defender at a very important position and I'm hoping that he's one year stopgap at the very least.

I think you mean you are hoping that Peralta is a one year stopgap at the very most, but yeah, I agree with that sentiment entirely.

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Dunn is terrifying. He's exactly the guy I want hitting behind Cabrera, but if the Cubs are willing to let him play first we're probably screwed.

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Without foot speed, Carl Crawford is unimpressive.

I disagree. Foot speed is not Crawford's whole game; it's just a part of it. His SBs are overrated but his overall game is underrated - he's a very good all-around hitter. And my hunch is that when his SBs eventually decline, his power will increase. He's the only FA hitter worth "over" paying for this winter, IMO.

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Miguel Cabrera stole 10 bases to Dunn's 4 between 2008-2010, maybe Cabrera would have been a better football player than Dunn too...
What does steals have to do with foot speed? Maybe his top gear is decent but it takes him a while to get that 290 pounds moving, thus poor jumps from first?

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Beck ponders a possible two-year deal for Peralta:

Beck's Blog: Could Peralta get a two-year deal?

I'd do two years at six million per, tops. Unfortunately the Tigers may have no alternatives to Jhonny

for the next couple of years, unless Iorg or Worth suddenly figure out how to hit.

Edited by DaYooperASBDT

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I'm not sure about 2 years for Jhonny. Certainly if it's like $4.5-$5 per it's ok. But there is a better crop of FAs after next season, and I wonder how much he'd get if they went to arb.....that would be 1 year and if he declines they get a draft pick. Obviously that wouldn't make sense if they figure it'd be $6M or more (he made $4.6M last year).

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Respectfully Mr. Bigglesworth;

Miguel Cabrera is a whole class and a half better hitter than Adam Dunn will ever be. Cabrera is a career .312 BA with a career .319 RISP (you read it right, he's got a higher bating average with runners on base!) and Dunn's a career .250 hitter with a .231 career RISP. So please don't say; Well, "Miguel Cabrera faults are just like Adam Dunn" when 29 other baseball teams would gladly put up with all of Cabrera's MVP faults (lack of speed on the base paths, etc.) where two years ago only the Nationals could stomach all of Adam Dunn's. Are you also wondering like me at all how the Reds made it to the play offs just two years after losing the great Adam Dunn with his history of amazing run production? There's a huge difference between the two players and simply saying, "well, he's as slow as Cabrera we should dump them both" is as dumb as saying they are both the exact same kind of hitters. Adam Dunn wishes he was Miguel Cabrera and Miguel Cabrera wakes up every morning and looks in the mirror and thanks god that he's not Adam Dunn.

Adam Dunn scores over a 100 runs a year..REALLY? Dunn scored 85 runs last year and the last time he scored over 100 runs was in 2007 with 101 runs. Let me help you with a ugly fact too. 38 of Dunn’s 85 runs scored (44%) in 2010 year are not done by feats of his amazing base running talent. If you hit 38 home runs, all 38 of those home runs count as runs scored by way of his trot around the bases. It's not Dunn's amazing base running skills on the base paths that gets him runs scored...

Carl Crawford hits .311 career RISP, not like Dunn's .231 and yes, Crawford's average will slip with age too, but subtract 20-30 points from both there career RISP averages and tell me who you want to be at bat to drive in a winning run a few years from now? And for Crawford, he hit 2nd and 3rd in the line up in 2010 and hit a paltry, .307 BA 19 home runs but guess what? He drove in 90 runs, scored 110 runs, only struck out 104 times and stole 47 bases. So your totally right, a slower Carl Crawford that would only steal say 20-30 bases would be totally useless just like Adam Dunn without power. How silly of me to point that out. Without speed, Crawford can still drive in runs, still hit a respectable amount of home runs and play a fair outfield. What is Dunn without his power?

As Crawford or Werth both play a good outfield and Crawford can play a very good left field. Crawford will save his team runs with his defense and I'm not sure dollar for dollar you'd convince me that paying Dunn $12-$15 million to play right field would do the same.

Adam Dunn a more effective hitter than Magglio Ordonez? Um, yea, check both of there career stats and get back with me on that. Maybe if Adam Dunn's wife gets cancer or Dunn was to break his leg in the middle of the season we could test your theory a bit more closely. (and for god sake if we sign Dunn, don't let him sit near Carlos Guillen on the bench in case there is any chance at all that what ever Carlos has might be contagious). Maggs even with less power is still a good hitter, the kind of hitter than can even move a runner into scoring position by making a out. Dunn is not that good of a hitter (35% of Dunn's at bats in 2010 ended in a strike out and Maggs in 2010 was less than 12%,.. if your interested) and Dunn will be even worse if he loses some of his power.

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I disagree. Foot speed is not Crawford's whole game; it's just a part of it. His SBs are overrated but his overall game is underrated - he's a very good all-around hitter. And my hunch is that when his SBs eventually decline, his power will increase. He's the only FA hitter worth "over" paying for this winter, IMO.

My point is without elite foot speed, Crawford's stolen bases will drop and he will almost certainly lose his elite range in LF.

When that happens, what are you left with? A 0.800 OPS LF who is good defensively, but not great, as well as good on the bathpaths, not great. Is that worth overpaying for?

Is that the sort of player one typically normally terms impressive? If not, it means he becomes unimpressive, which was my claim.

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I'm not sure about 2 years for Jhonny. Certainly if it's like $4.5-$5 per it's ok. But there is a better crop of FAs after next season, and I wonder how much he'd get if they went to arb.....that would be 1 year and if he declines they get a draft pick. Obviously that wouldn't make sense if they figure it'd be $6M or more (he made $4.6M last year).

I don't care so much about the amount of the contract since I don't know what their budget will be. I just don't like the idea of locking up mediocre players to multi-year deals. He may be their best option this year, but I'd prefer they left themselves flexibility for next year.

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Victor Martiez vs Adam Dunn;

Dunn in 2010 had 38 home runs in 558 AB's and acounted for 85 runs. Victor Martinez had 20 home runs in 493 AB's and accounted for 64 runs scored. The difference is 18 home runs and 65 at bats in favor of Adam Dunn.

Edited by STLTiger69

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When that happens, what are you left with? A 0.800 OPS LF who is good defensively, but not great, as well as good on the bathpaths, not great. Is that worth overpaying for?

Is that the sort of player one typically normally terms impressive? If not, it means he becomes unimpressive, which was my claim.

That profile doesn't sound bad to me if it's the tail end of the contract; and it might even not happen until after the contract expires. Overpay him for the immediate years while he's still at his peak and the overall deal would be still be good (depending on how much of an overpayment, it is, of course). They could even front-load the contract. I think he's got upside over an .800 OPS long term, anyway.

There are middle grounds between impressive and unimpressive. Something isn't necessarily either very good or very bad. And "good, but not great" is not unimpressive. Anyway, when evaulating a multi-year contract, the entire scope needs to be considered, not just the latter portion.

Edited by Los Gatos

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Respectfully Mr. Bigglesworth;

Miguel Cabrera is a whole class and a half better hitter than Adam Dunn will ever be. Cabrera is a career .312 BA with a career .319 RISP (you read it right, he's got a higher bating average with runners on base!) and Dunn's a career .250 hitter with a .231 career RISP. So please don't say; Well, "Miguel Cabrera faults are just like Adam Dunn" when 29 other baseball teams would gladly put up with all of Cabrera's MVP faults (lack of speed on the base paths, etc.) where two years ago only the Nationals could stomach all of Adam Dunn's.

Adam Dunn's career OPS: 0.902

Miguel Cabrera's career OPS: 0.939

Adam Dunn's career OPS with RISP: 0.890

Miguel Cabrera's career OPS with RISP: 0.991

Adum Dunn's career RC/G: 7.3

Miguel Cabrera"s career RC/G: 7.7

Yes, Cabrera is a better hitter, but he ain't anywhere near half better or any such nonsense. And Dunn's numbers represent a massively huge upgrade over anyone the Tigers have or would play at DH.

Secondly, batting average really does not capture offensive value or effectiveness well. Let me restate that - batting average is a poor measure of offensive effectiveness. If you take just one thing from this discussion, let it be this.

Lastly, Dunn is really crappy defensively. If he insists on playing the field, which negates most of the value he provides offensively, then maybe the Nationals were the only team that would take him on two years ago. That seems plausible. I'd only want him as a DH, and given he has stated he doesn't want to DH paired with the roster inflexibility that comes with a dedicated DH (and 12 pitchers), I'm not sure I even want him.

But make no mistake, Adam Dunn is a highly, highly effective offensive player despite having a relatively poor batting average (which should probably tell you all you need to know about the value of batting average in assessing the offensive worth of a player).

Are you also wondering like me at all how the Reds made it to the play offs just two years after losing the great Adam Dunn with his history of amazing run production?

I assume it is because they upgraded their roster (especially pitching) considerably relative to when they had Dunn. Joey Votto is an OK player, for one example.

The Marlins improved when they traded Cabrera to the Tigers. Does that mean or suggest Miguel is an ineffective player?

There's a huge difference between the two players and simply saying, "well, he's as slow as Cabrera we should dump them both" is as dumb as saying they are both the exact same kind of hitters. Adam Dunn wishes he was Miguel Cabrera and Miguel Cabrera wakes up every morning and looks in the mirror and thanks god that he's not Adam Dunn.

My point was and is this: if being slow poor baserunner and being a less than average fielder is a compelling reason, in and of itself, to not persue a player, then to be logically consistent one oughtn't persue or want Miguel Cabrera either.

There are good arguments to not wanting Adam Dunn. I just don't think you are making them. You are seemingly fixating on batting average, strikeouts, and foot speed to make your argument, and those things really aren't lowering his value nearly as much as you suggest.

Adam Dunn scores over a 100 runs a year..REALLY? Dunn scored 85 runs last year and the last time he scored over 100 runs was in 2007 with 101 runs.

Adam Dunn has averaged 98 RBI and 97 runs scored per 162 games played in his career. I'd suggest that is close enough to 100 to claim he scores 100 runs a year on average, which is what I claimed.

Let me help you with a ugly fact too. 38 of Dunn’s 85 runs scored (44%) in 2010 year are not done by feats of his amazing base running talent. If you hit 38 home runs, all 38 of those home runs count as runs scored by way of his trot around the bases. It's not Dunn's amazing base running skills on the base paths that gets him runs scored....

Nobody has claimed he has amazing base running skills.

It counts when he scores on a HR, doesn't it? Why do you care if he scores 40% of his runs on HR as opposed to 30% as opposed to 10%. A run is a run is a run. Dunn is a slugger. Of course he will score more runs via HR than most players.

Carl Crawford hits .311 career RISP, not like Dunn's .231 and yes, Crawford's average will slip with age too, but subtract 20-30 points from both there career RISP averages and tell me who you want to be at bat to drive in a winning run a few years from now? And for Crawford, he hit 2nd and 3rd in the line up in 2010 and hit a paltry, .307 BA 19 home runs but guess what? He drove in 90 runs, scored 110 runs, only struck out 104 times and stole 47 bases.

Carl Crawford is a much more well rounded player than Dunn. I don't think anyone argues that.

Carl Crawford also has really only had one season where he had the offensive effectiveness of an elite LF. Carl has a career on base percentage of 0.337, which really isn't that good. That means a hell of a lot more to me than batting average or batting average with RISP.

Once Carl start to lose his speed, his stolen bases will drop, as will his value defensively. I personally do not think his effectiveness as a player is going to be commensurate with what he is likely to get this off-season just 2 or 3 years from now.

Crawford's career OPS with RISP: 0.843

Dunn's career OPS with RISP: 0.890

So your totally right, a slower Carl Crawford that would only steal say 20-30 bases would be totally useless just like Adam Dunn without power. How silly of me to point that out. Without speed, Crawford can still drive in runs, still hit a respectable amount of home runs and play a fair outfield. What is Dunn without his power?

Why do you presume Dunn will lose his power?

Edited Note: I presume Carl Crawford will lose his foot speed because historically players start to lose their foot speed in their early 30's. Maybe Carl is unique - certainly possible.

Power is harder to project. There are plenty of examples of guys who kept their power until their late 30's.

As Crawford or Werth both play a good outfield and Crawford can play a very good left field. Crawford will save his team runs with his defense and I'm not sure dollar for dollar you'd convince me that paying Dunn $12-$15 million to play right field would do the same.

I would not play Dunn in the OF ever. I might - *might* consider him at 1B, and that is only if Cabrera wanted to DH or something. I'd really only want Dunn to DH. He is really crappy defensively, and if he insists on playing in the field then no thanks.

Adam Dunn a more effective hitter than Magglio Ordonez? Um, yea, check both of there career stats and get back with me on that.

Why don't you actually support your claim? Here, I'll support mine:

Magglio's career OPS+: 128

Magglio's career RC/G: 6.6

Dunn's career OPS+: 133

Dunn's career RC/G: 7.3

Note: Dunn's career RC/G is closer to Miguel Cabrera's than Magglio's career RC/G is to Dunn's. FWIW.

Maybe if Adam Dunn's wife gets cancer or Dunn was to break his leg in the middle of the season we could test your theory a bit more closely. (and for god sake if we sign Dunn, don't let him sit near Carlos Guillen on the bench in case there is any chance at all that what ever Carlos has might be contagious).

And if pigs had wings, they could fly.

All that is relevant is who is likely to be the better hitter moving forward and who fits the team's needs better.

I claimed Dunn was a more effective hitter than Ordonez and is likely to be moving forward. I think those are fair claims.

Maggs even with less power is still a good hitter, the kind of hitter than can even move a runner into scoring position by making a out. Dunn is not that good of a hitter (35% of Dunn's at bats in 2010 ended in a strike out and Maggs in 2010 was less than 12%,.. if your interested) and Dunn will be even worse if he loses some of his power.

Magglio has had a fine career. He has been an excellent hitter. I have never suggested otherwise.

Dunn's plate appearances do end up in K's more frequently than Ordonez. The also more frequently end up in a BB or a HR. They also less frequently end up a GIDP. These matter as well.

Edited by Mr. Bigglesworth

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Adam Dunn isn't that slow, he was a QB/TE in Division 1 football and despite being an uncoordinated giant runs pretty well. He's faster than Cabrera, do teams only walk Cabrera because he's slow?

It's a minor point, but I'd guess Dunn is about 70lb heavier today than he was in college, and probably a good 30 lb heavier than the last time he stole a base, which was something like 3 yrs ago. Cabby manages to go 1st to 3rd on a reasonable number of singles. If I had to put money on it, I'd take my money on Cabby being faster as of today than Dunn, but as was noted, we don't want him for his speed.

But as I posted about a long time ago regarding Dunn, aside from the fact that I don't think there is much chance he comes here, my biggest reservation about him as a home run hitter is that he does not pull the ball, which will hurt him at COPA, though as I also noted, he might be a help with our road winning differential. It could be that we've gotten to the point were we have too many gap line drive hitters.

As an aside, I think this is also why Peralta is a good fit at COPA, he tends to pull his HRs.

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I don't care so much about the amount of the contract since I don't know what their budget will be. I just don't like the idea of locking up mediocre players to multi-year deals. He may be their best option this year, but I'd prefer they left themselves flexibility for next year.

If they can JP at 2 for 10 or 11 like Inge, instead of one for 7, it could well be worth 3-4 million in flexibility. It also might make him a more attractive deadline deal, as he would be more than a rental to the receiving team, so 2 yr is not something that would bother me either.

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Victor Martiez vs Adam Dunn;

Dunn in 2010 had 38 home runs in 558 AB's and acounted for 85 runs. Victor Martinez had 20 home runs in 493 AB's and accounted for 64 runs scored. The difference is 18 home runs and 65 at bats in favor of Adam Dunn.

You are using some...interesting...metrics to compare players. You keep bringing up BA, but what about OBP or OPS?

And BA with RISP many would argue is based more on luck than skill...I'm not sure being "clutch" is necessarily a repeatable skill. And by the way, you also forgot to mention that even though Adam Dunn only has a .231 BA with RISP, he has a .411 OBP and .890 OPS...Crawford may have a high BA with RISP but his OBP and OPS is significantly lower. So even though he isn't hitting at a high average (which he never does), he is still getting on base and hitting with a lot of power with RISP.

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If they can JP at 2 for 10 or 11 like Inge, instead of one for 7, it could well be worth 3-4 million in flexibility. It also might make him a more attractive deadline deal, as he would be more than a rental to the receiving team, so 2 yr is not something that would bother me either.

Possibly, but the most likely scenario in a two-year deal is keeping him for both years. I really don't want to see both Inge and Peralta locked into 2012.

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