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Dunkin Darvin

Off-season moves starting to take shape

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They play 81 on the road..

true, - But the long ball is such a big part of his appeal -- if folks looked at Dunn's numbers and saw 10 fewer HR's per yr, would they be as excited about him? OTOH, I'll admit that he might help balance the Home/road winning split.:wink:

OK - I'll be honest, I just don't like big lumbering guys that can't run the bases or catch the ball - pretty much no matter what they do with the bat.:ponder: And if the day comes Cabby can only DH, I probably won't like him either!

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They play 81 on the road..

Exactly, and I'll worry about Interleague Play when it comes...

Note - we also always play well during Interleague Play.

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the long ball is such a big part of his appeal

No, his OPS is the big part of his appeal!

Have you ever seen the guy hit HRs .. they're mostly no doubters!

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It's foolish to compare parks just based on outfield dimensions, too. Air currents and temperatures and elevation and all kinds of other stuff comes into play.

this..

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It's foolish to compare parks just based on outfield dimensions, too. Air currents and temperatures and elevation and all kinds of other stuff comes into play.

But you can certainly look at an HR spray pattern to see if a guy is a pull hitter or not. And air currents and all other things aside, the difference between 400 and 430 is significant. You just aren't going to make a very good living hitting HRs to center field at Copa.

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No, his OPS is the big part of his appeal!

Have you ever seen the guy hit HRs .. they're mostly no doubters!

JB, if you take 40 bases off his total, that does affect his OPS you know.

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JB, if you take 40 bases off his total, that does affect his OPS you know.

I know, I just agree with Sportz/Eric .. that it wouldn't be as much as you think.

The power and OPS will still be there, and those numbers are a top priority!

Cabrera #4, Dunn #5 <-- that's scary!

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Yes, no doubt. I've just always believed (even after this year) that productive DHs can be found on the relative cheap or from within.

The Tigers have struggled to come up with a good DH internally pretty much my whole life. What good Designated Hitters the Tigers have had seem to have come via trade or free agency.

Instead of committing so many dollars and years to a guy like Dunn, I'd just as soon go with a lower-cost, shorter-term guy like Thome or maybe even Branyan (or Ordonez or Damon). I'd aim my big offers towards 2-way players (yes, supply is short) and starting pitching.

My attitude is that it is really hard to know what way to go, simply because I have no real feel for how likely the Tigers are to get Werth or Crawford or Dunn or Martinez or Beltre or on and on.

Posters here claim there is no way the Tigers will be able to sign *insert name here*, and maybe they are right, but without knowing who are plausible targets and who has absolutely no intention of coming here, it is hard for me to say I'd target 2-way players and/or starting pitching before a DH, simply because DH might be the one desirable guy out of the bunch they actually have a shot at. Or maybe not - I just don't have the information.

Presuming everyone is equally agreeable to play in Detroit, I'd prefer a 2-way player over a DH. But I doubt they are, and I doubt the salary demands are roughly equal.

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I know, I just agree with Sportz/Eric .. that it wouldn't be as much as you think.

The power and OPS will still be there, and those numbers are a top priority!

Cabrera #4, Dunn #5 <-- that's scary!

I don't think Dunn will have a problem hitting the long ball in Comerica...Dunn has seven hits and four are HRs, one was a double in 23 ABs.

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I don't think Dunn will have a problem hitting the long ball in Comerica...Dunn has seven hits and four are HRs, one was a double in 23 ABs.

I agree he hit a nice shot of JV, the others were off Maroth, Bonderman and Colon.

But fair enough guys, just let me add that in 3 yrs, Cabby has hit only 7 hrs either over the CF wall or near either corner of the CF fence. Here is the link:

Miguel Cabrera Hitting Chart | tigers.com: Stats

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I agree, and wouldn't want that anyway...

I think, in order to have a successful off season, we're going to have to make a bunch of moves. A slew of small moves, that makes it easier to pull off a major trade. Smaller moves makes it easier to trade Rick Porcello and/or Jacob Turner for a big bat, to go alongside Dunn (who would be my top free agent target). I'd give him a very nice contract!

I think we're on the same page.

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.. it is really hard to know what way to go, .

Well luckily, DD won't be asking any of us to make the decision!:wink:

It's not to be taken seriously. All we do here is express our opinions on who we as individuals would be willing to pursue the hardest if it were up to us (in my case - clearly Werth). And the fun, such as it is, lies in marshalling the argument for the "why".

And in the end, if they sign the guy you don't like, you may well never know how hard they may have tried for the guy you did.

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Werth is not worth the money he'll want nor get. Dunn is a huge upgrade, and worth the price.

Dunn + another big bat, most likely via trade + 1 or 2 new SPs and 2 new RPs, and that'd be a successful off season.

Trades are going to be key, as will picking up and signing the right free agents.

The funny thing is I've always thought that Werth is overrated, flash-in-the-pan, not worth the big money, etc...until this off-season.

But then I took a fresh look at his career recently, and I was very pleasantly surprised.

Compare Werth today to Magglio Ordonez circa 2005. Same age, similar hitting stats over the previous 3 seasons. Magglio was a more established hitter, but Werth has almost caught up to where Maggs was in his prime; Werth is a little better fielder.

Naturally, I think Werth would take a hit in terms of league-effect on his hitting, but he'd still be damn good.

In 2005, Maggs was just coming off his injury issues, and Werth today is almost 4 seasons removed from his battle with tendinitis in his wrist that sidelined him for all of 2006 before he came back and emerged as a late-blooming slugger.

Did we overpay for Maggs? Probably, but without his mediocre 2006 I don't think we would have made the playoffs. To build this roster, you need flexibility.

While I'd love to have Dunn's bat, Werth is a legitimate two-way player. Maybe not a big plus in the field, but better than average, and that would make him our second-best position player instantly. Pay him Cabrera money? No way; but $10 - 15M/yr for 5 years? Sure.

I think Maggs is likely to be a .300/.375/.475/.850 guy with a .375 wOBA and an wRC+ of 135-140. That's wwaaaayyyy better than anything we've gotten out of our DH position since forever.

I think if we could have Werth in RF and Maggs at DH, we'd be off to a good start.

If we could also land VMart for C/DH, we'd have insurance for Maggs and three good bats added to the lineup vs. the second half of 2010. I think that would be good enough, along with the added pitching we seem to agree on, to compete.

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The funny thing is I've always thought that Werth is overrated, flash-in-the-pan, not worth the big money, etc...until this off-season.

But then I took a fresh look at his career recently, and I was very pleasantly surprised.

Compare Werth today to Magglio Ordonez circa 2005. Same age, similar hitting stats over the previous 3 seasons. Magglio was a more established hitter, but Werth has almost caught up to where Maggs was in his prime; Werth is a little better fielder.

Naturally, I think Werth would take a hit in terms of league-effect on his hitting, but he'd still be damn good.

In 2005, Maggs was just coming off his injury issues, and Werth today is almost 4 seasons removed from his battle with tendinitis in his wrist that sidelined him for all of 2006 before he came back and emerged as a late-blooming slugger.

Did we overpay for Maggs? Probably, but without his mediocre 2006 I don't think we would have made the playoffs. To build this roster, you need flexibility.

While I'd love to have Dunn's bat, Werth is a legitimate two-way player. Maybe not a big plus in the field, but better than average, and that would make him our second-best position player instantly. Pay him Cabrera money? No way; but $10 - 15M/yr for 5 years? Sure.

I think Maggs is likely to be a .300/.375/.475/.850 guy with a .375 wOBA and an wRC+ of 135-140. That's wwaaaayyyy better than anything we've gotten out of our DH position since forever.

I think if we could have Werth in RF and Maggs at DH, we'd be off to a good start.

If we could also land VMart for C/DH, we'd have insurance for Maggs and three good bats added to the lineup vs. the second half of 2010. I think that would be good enough, along with the added pitching we seem to agree on, to compete.

Prior to his injury Magglio had 4 out of 5 season with 30+ HR, and 29 in the season he didn't hit 30. Batted over 300 in all 5 seasons (Werth has yet to hit 300) 5 seasons of an OPS over 900, vs Werth at 1 season.

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I think if we could have Werth in RF and Maggs at DH, we'd be off to a good start.

If we could also land VMart for C/DH, we'd have insurance for Maggs and three good bats added to the lineup vs. the second half of 2010. I think that would be good enough, along with the added pitching we seem to agree on, to compete.

This is an outcome I'd agree is a good combination of progress and possible. You still have to find a #2 hitter. Can Rhymes sustain a +325 OPS? If not can Sizemore still run enough for the 2 spot? Could Raburn bunt well enough to go there? Or do you have to look outside there as well? And you still lack LH power, which you can't deny to the Dunn supporters. Still, on balance, I'd go this way.

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Prior to his injury Magglio had 4 out of 5 season with 30+ HR, and 29 in the season he didn't hit 30. Batted over 300 in all 5 seasons (Werth has yet to hit 300) 5 seasons of an OPS over 900, vs Werth at 1 season.

All true, but where do you go with it? A a 30 yr Maggs isn't available for signing this year. When he was, we did.:grin:

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Prior to his injury Magglio had 4 out of 5 season with 30+ HR, and 29 in the season he didn't hit 30. Batted over 300 in all 5 seasons (Werth has yet to hit 300) 5 seasons of an OPS over 900, vs Werth at 1 season.

As I said, Ordonez was a more established hitter, because he was better at a younger age; as I said, Werth was a late-bloomer and had his injury problems at the ages of 26 - 27 (several years ago now, and irrelevant in terms of whether or not to get Werth now) whereas Ordonez's were at 29-30 just before we acquired him, so the injuries were very relevant - and it still worked out well.

Ordonez's advantage in batting average is largely made up by Werth's advantage in drawing walks, so their on-base is similar.

League-differential would suggest that Ordonez was at least a 10% better hitter than Werth, independent of whatever differential you place on their skill levels at age 30.

But Werth is a better fielder, so given Ordonez's injury struggles in 2004 - 2005 (the year they got him he was basically a non-factor) Werth would arguably be a better pickup at this point than Maggs was in 2005 -- but I'm only arguing that they would be about the same or pretty similar in value.

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This is an outcome I'd agree is a good combination of progress and possible. You still have to find a #2 hitter. Can Rhymes sustain a +325 OPS? If not can Sizemore still run enough for the 2 spot? Could Raburn bunt well enough to go there? Or do you have to look outside there as well? And you still lack LH power, which you can't deny to the Dunn supporters. Still, on balance, I'd go this way.

I think we let 2b/Ss/3b go with what we have currently.

Place the bulk of our offensive hopes in Cabrera, Werth or Dunn and VMart, who will all give you well above average hitting for their positions.

Raburn and Ordonez will be between average and above average for their positions.

A. Jackson will be an average or better CF hitter.

Peralta and Inge are likely fair/middling.

Sizemore and Avila bring up the rear.

That's 3 positions well above average, 3 positions at or better than average, and 3 positions somewhat below average, and no likely black hole effect.

I think that's a playoff-caliber offense.

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Should we take that as satirical or serious?

There is an excellent chance that by the end of Spring Training, Cabby will be the only Venezuelan on the active roster and he will have a long time to get over it before his contract is up again - so if the answer was serious, I've missed why.

My answer was serious. Cabrera has a well-documented friendship with Ordonez

See, e.g.,

Cabrera: Ordonez Hopes To Return To Tigers: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

This friendship gives Ordonez some leverage in negotiations with the Tigers.

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I can't help myself. I hope Ordonez comes back.

I love the guy.

I was crushed when he went down with the injury.

Also, because I knew that meant the Tigers were done for.

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From Johnny Damon (to the New York Post)

"Damon was informed by the Tigers they will look elsewhere to find a designated hitter and since they have young outfielders, it's time for the 36-year-old with 2,571 career hits to move on. 'They told me they are looking for a prototypical type DH like Adam Dunn,' Damon said. 'They said they need that type of bat in the middle of order. I am a No. 1 or 2 guy, so . . .'"

Full article:

Damon would 'love' returning to Bronx - NYPOST.com

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