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Dunkin Darvin

Off-season moves starting to take shape

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That's fine Lee, but of the three years you mention he played a full season in only one of those so the sample size is a little off.

It's still more than twice as big as your sample size but that's not the point.

I was trying to show that you get totally different results for two different time periods if you use small sample size splits. I could have picked any one year to show it. If you combine all four years, you might have something.

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It's still more than twice as big as your sample size but that's not the point.

I was trying to show that you get totally different results for two different time periods if you use small sample size splits. I could have picked any one year to show it. If you combine all four years, you might have something.

bang+head+here.bmp

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Avila too, but I think that guy's a werewolf so it may not be valid.

Or are you talking strictly pitchers?

Funny. Werewolf is Jayson Werth's nickname.

As for the differences between Dunn & Werth, age is a non-factor. It's 6 months difference.

When you look at the 162 game averages, Dunn hits 15 more HR/season, drives in 13 more runs & has a higher OPS.

Werth has a better fielding percentage as an OF, & gets around a little better. (Yes I know that fielding % is not the best indicator of a person's ability defensively)

I'd be fine with either, but it all depends on how much. I'd be more comfortable paying Dunn, but he worries me in the OF.

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Avila too, but I think that guy's a werewolf so it may not be valid.

Or are you talking strictly pitchers?

No, you're right. I had forgotten about him.

I haven't thought much about baseball since the end of the season. Once the winter meetings happen I'll probably get more involved again and remember important facts like beards.

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How is it even possible to be an 'unproductive RBI man' what does he only drive in runs during blowouts? Oh that sneaky Adam Dunn, why doesn't he want to win?

Even if Dunn IS bad with RISP, who cares? That just means he must be incredible with no one on or a man on first to still get his overall numbers, bat him 2nd in the lineup and he'd be unstoppable.

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How is it even possible to be an 'unproductive RBI man' what does he only drive in runs during blowouts? Oh that sneaky Adam Dunn, why doesn't he want to win?

Even if Dunn IS bad with RISP, who cares? That just means he must be incredible with no one on or a man on first to still get his overall numbers, bat him 2nd in the lineup and he'd be unstoppable.

Leyland likes him..he can score guys from 1B..

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It's still more than twice as big as your sample size but that's not the point.

I was trying to show that you get totally different results for two different time periods if you use small sample size splits. I could have picked any one year to show it. If you combine all four years, you might have something.

If you combine all 4 years you still have only 2 years in which he played a full season, all I'm trying to say is Werth is hardly a proven commodity worthy of a huge multi year contract based on a little more than 2 1/2 years of numbers over a major league career that debuted 9 years ago. If you guyy want to get excited about him that's fine, happy for ya, I'm not.

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You guys are all missing something important: Werth would bring some much needed full beard action to the Tigers, something that only Verlander once in a while dabbles in.

He was trimmed down to just a Van Dyke during the series.

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If you combine all 4 years you still have only 2 years in which he played a full season, all I'm trying to say is Werth is hardly a proven commodity worthy of a huge multi year contract based on a little more than 2 1/2 years of numbers over a major league career that debuted 9 years ago. If you guyy want to get excited about him that's fine, happy for ya, I'm not.

Regardless of what a player had done in years prior, I think that 2,100 PA are enough to prove that Werth isn't a fluke. And it's not like he came out of no where and started playing out of his mind (a la Boesch)...he was rated as a top 100 prospect in 4 years (52 it 1999, 48 in 2000, 70 in 2002, 93 in 2003).

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If you combine all 4 years you still have only 2 years in which he played a full season, all I'm trying to say is Werth is hardly a proven commodity worthy of a huge multi year contract based on a little more than 2 1/2 years of numbers over a major league career that debuted 9 years ago. If you guyy want to get excited about him that's fine, happy for ya, I'm not.

I was trying to help you there! The four year home/away splits would have backed up your point that he didn't hit as well on the road. If you think his 4 years is of data is a small sample size though, why did you use one year of data in the first place?

Anyway, I'm not all that excited about Werth because he's right-handed and because I think the league switch might hurt him. I do think he'd be an upgrade though.

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Werth has a better fielding percentage as an OF, & gets around a little better.

There's a knack for understatement.

Werth at 31 has held his playing wt to 212 on 6'5" frame. He is a 10 lifetime UZR/150 in RF and stole 13 bases last yr -- and just for an indicator of his base running savvy, accomplished a steal of home '09. Fangraphs has him at a total of 15 WAR over the last 3 yrs.

Dunn at 290 is a tree, doesn't have a steal to his name since joining the Nationals, is a -13 UZR/150 (lifetime) at 1b and -14 UZR/150 as an OF. He is 6.2 WAR total for the last three yrs.

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I was trying to help you there! The four year home/away splits would have backed up your point that he didn't hit as well on the road. If you think his 4 years is of data is a small sample size though, why did you use one year of data in the first place?

Anyway, I'm not all that excited about Werth because he's right-handed and because I think the league switch might hurt him. I do think he'd be an upgrade though.

Sorry for confusing what you were saying Lee.

I used the one year of data because he really has only 2 full years as a healthy every day player, that even if one year was great and the other not so much it's not worthy of a lucrative long term contract and that this team is full of guys who have poor walk/K ratios and RH hitters. I agree he'd be an upgrade...but is it worth the cost?

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Regardless of what a player had done in years prior, I think that 2,100 PA are enough to prove that Werth isn't a fluke. And it's not like he came out of no where and started playing out of his mind (a la Boesch)...he was rated as a top 100 prospect in 4 years (52 it 1999, 48 in 2000, 70 in 2002, 93 in 2003).

I'm not saying he's a fluke , I'm saying he is what he is and that if you get him out of Philly and in Detroit you are probably looking at a guy who hits .270 20-25 hr 70 walks and 150 K's. Yeah, that's an upgrade but I don't think it's worth the cost.

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I'm not saying he's a fluke , I'm saying he is what he is and that if you get him out of Philly and in Detroit you are probably looking at a guy who hits .270 20-25 hr 70 walks and 150 K's. Yeah, that's an upgrade but I don't think it's worth the cost.

What makes you think his numbers will drop coming from Philly to Detroit?

Our parks are quite similar with the main difference being center fielder, but Werth tends to hit the ball more towards left field anyway.

Citizens Bank Park Seating Chart, Pictures, Directions, and History - Philadelphia Phillies - ESPN

Comerica Park Seating Chart, Pictures, Directions, and History - Detroit Tigers - ESPN

Jayson Werth Hitting Chart | phillies.com: Stats

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-55

Werth, and bringing back Maggs .. that's your offensive upgrade?

You failed.

- 1 billion

No, you failed to read my post. I said that I could live with this...I have said like 10 times in various threads that in addition to a heavy hitter, they must acquire a decent SP and two RPs to hqave made the Grandy trade/savings worthwhile. My preferred heavy hitter is Dunn, Werth is not as established a hitter but with his ability to play the field he would be a major upgrade to our offense and a marginal upgrade defensively as well. You could do a lot worse than Maggs at DH.

Again, as I have said, I prefer Dunn + SP + 2 RPs...what do you have in mind that's better and realistic?

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What makes you think his numbers will drop coming from Philly to Detroit?

Our parks are quite similar with the main difference being center fielder, but Werth tends to hit the ball more towards left field anyway.

Citizens Bank Park Seating Chart, Pictures, Directions, and History - Philadelphia Phillies - ESPN

Comerica Park Seating Chart, Pictures, Directions, and History - Detroit Tigers - ESPN

Jayson Werth Hitting Chart | phillies.com: Stats

There's a 15 foot difference down the LF line. A lot of his HR to LF in Philadelphia would be close and most probably long fly balls. What I did notice, is his BA jumped nearly 30 points between 2009 and 2010. His hit chart showed more doubles to right center in 2010 and his total number of doubles almost doubled. If he can still shoot the gaps in Comerica, he may only hit 20 HR, but he could hit 40 doubles and still slug above 500 while walking 80 times and stealing 15-20 bases.

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My biggest concern with Werth is his age, but I'd love to see him batting #3 and Dunn batting #5 next year.

Werth is going to be overpaid by the end of this next contract, but that is what it is - supply and demand.

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There's a 15 foot difference down the LF line. A lot of his HR to LF in Philadelphia would be close and most probably long fly balls. What I did notice, is his BA jumped nearly 30 points between 2009 and 2010. His hit chart showed more doubles to right center in 2010 and his total number of doubles almost doubled. If he can still shoot the gaps in Comerica, he may only hit 20 HR, but he could hit 40 doubles and still slug above 500 while walking 80 times and stealing 15-20 bases.

Nice catch...somehow I missed the difference down the LF line. But either way, I would still like to get Werth.

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If Maggs is your primary DH, they failed. If the Tigers don't add two NEW, top tier bats .. they failed.

They can bring Maggs back, but as a nice compliment to what they already brought in.

Tiger players will be watching what the Tigers do with Maggs (especially his country man, Miggy), and I think DD will be motivated by player perception to some degree to bring him back.

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Tiger players will be watching what the Tigers do with Maggs (especially his country man, Miggy), and I think DD will be motivated by player perception to some degree to bring him back.

I really don't that will play in a part in his decision making. If Granderson was as well liked by his teammates as he was by the fans, he didn't hesitate dealing him. Damon also seems to always be a popular clubhouse guy and he was let go rather easily.

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I'm not saying he's a fluke , I'm saying he is what he is and that if you get him out of Philly and in Detroit you are probably looking at a guy who hits .270 20-25 hr 70 walks and 150 K's. Yeah, that's an upgrade but I don't think it's worth the cost.

I'll grant COPA plays different from most fields, but I'm sure why would Werth's relative drop at COPA will be any worse than Dunn's.

Both of these guys hit mostly CF HRs at home last yr. CF at NP and CBF are basically the same depth, both being shorter than COPA. If you look at the hit charts for their HRs, you'll see that most of Dunns HRs at National Park were right center to left center, while Werth hit his HRs to all fields at CBF, with a slight weighting to the LF corner. AFAICS both these guys are likely to be hurt at COPA.

EDIT: if Dunn turned himself into more a pull hitter, he would do better at COPA. Is that likely? Possible? Would he end up a better or worse net hitter? Who knows.....

Werth's chart:

Jayson Werth Hitting Chart | phillies.com: Stats

Dunn's chart:

Adam Dunn Hitting Chart | nationals.com: Stats

Edited by Gehringer_2

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[Werth's 2010 (I presume) stats]

RISP - .186

Bases empty - .328

Now , as I said, put him in Comerica with a weaker lineup and let's see what we get.

By that rationale, since Werth hits .328 with the bases empty, and the Tigers have a weaker line-up, he should get more hits in Detroit, not less. :cheeky:

Seriously, using a single season's worth of RISP vs. batting with the bases empty to make a point about the value of a player in the future means little, if anything. There are plenty of ways, much better / useful / accurate ways, to argue Werth's worth as a free agent (or lack thereof) than to cite batting average with RISP in 2010.

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Again, as I have said, I prefer Dunn + SP + 2 RPs...what do you have in mind that's better and realistic?

You think adding more than one bat is unrealistic?

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I really don't that will play in a part in his decision making. If Granderson was as well liked by his teammates as he was by the fans, he didn't hesitate dealing him. Damon also seems to always be a popular clubhouse guy and he was let go rather easily.

Neither Granderson nor Damon was a Venezualan national hero.

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