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This year, Huff and Zimmerman have been pretty similar as hitters (based on woba which I trust), so OPS seems to be working pretty well for this year. Same with Longoria and Scott.

However, Zimmerman and Kubel have about the same RBI, yet Zimmerman has been a much better hitter. So, RBI isn't working there.

As far as the future, you're right than any stat could fail. We don't know the future. OPS at least gives us a better baseline for projection. You need to look at age, past years and other things as well.

They have been this year. I agree they probably won't be next year. We'll see.

So can't the same be said about McGehee and LaRoche? This year those two were hitting at a .950+ OPS clip when hitting with RISP and both surpass Ryan Zimmerman in that regard. So yeah, this year I might actually rather have those two up to bat with men on when the game is on the line. But, I highly doubt that this will remain the case next season and beyond.

The "problem" with Adrian Gonzalez is that in the 140 PA he has had with RISP he has walked 38 times which lowers his chances of getting RBIs...so in that regard RBI is flawed (which adds to its many other flaws)...if we walked less and was more focused on making contact I think it is safe to say his RBIs would increase by 5-10...

But the fact remains that RBIs weren't meant to be indicative to a hitter's ability per say, but instead it probably has more to do with how well they do with RISP.

Edited by EchO

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So can't the same be said about McGehee and LaRoche? This year those two were hitting at a .950+ OPS clip when hitting with RISP and both surpass Ryan Zimmerman in that regard. So yeah, this year I might actually rather have those two up to bat with men on when the game is on the line.

The "problem" with Adrian Gonzalez is that in the 140 PA he has had with RISP he has walked 38 times which lowers his chances of getting RBIs...so in that regard RBI is flawed (which adds to its many other flaws)...if we walked less and was more focused on making contact I think it is safe to say his RBIs would increase by 5-10...

But the fact remains that RBIs weren't meant to be indicative to a hitter's ability per say, but instead it probably has more to do with how well they do with RISP.

You make some good argument here. I would say that RISP is a better measure of success in RBI opportunities than RBI. If I wanted to know who the best "RBI guys" were in the past, I might use RISP. It's not predictive though. A batter with a good overall slugging average (which is what I would have used in this example instead of ops) is more likely to carry that success over into next year than RISP. You don't know what's going to happen next year but a batter has more control over slugging than risp or rbi, so I'll take that going forward.

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If you make the list a little longer, you'll see that Adam LaRoche and Casey McGehee have more RBI than Adrian Gonzalez. Which one of those hitters would you most want in the middle of the Tigers line-up next year?

Jason Kubel or Ryan Zimmerman?

True. So where are the Tigers after Cabrera though .. I couldn't find 'em???

Thing is, it's not just top tier names .. it's names we don't have.

Jason Kubel or Ryan Zimmerman .. sure, but what is listed or what we have? We need more fire power!

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You make some good argument here. I would say that RISP is a better measure of success in RBI opportunities than RBI. If I wanted to know who the best "RBI guys" were in the past, I might use RISP. It's not predictive though. A batter with a good overall slugging average (which is what I would have used in this example instead of ops) is more likely to carry that success over into next year than RISP. You don't know what's going to happen next year but a batter has more control over slugging than risp or rbi, so I'll take that going forward.

And let it be known that I would agree with you 100%, I was taking more of a "devil's advocate" approach than anything.

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I think we need two NEW/BIG bats. I like our "table-setters" :paranoid:

I would be a big fan of getting Beltre and Werth; Beltre has a few good years left in him at 3B. Fangraphs last month had a piece on his "value" and they suggested that he was probably a 3/36 to 3/45 player. I would overspend to get him...personally. He still plays fantastic defense at 31/32 years old and even hypothetically if his defense falls off the tracks he has a solid enough bat to be a full-time DH.

Werth, likewise is a very solid hitter and a average to slightly above average fielder and again I think that if his defense starts to fail in the latter years of his contract, he too has the ability to be a successful DH. The problem then would be if they BOTH can no longer play adequate defense...but Inge is 35 and still is above average so I would suspect the same for Beltre.

Then pick up a cheap DH at 3-8 million on a one year contract...

Jackson - CF

Rhymes/Guillen - 2B

Werth - RF

Cabrera - 1B

Beltre - 3B

Maggs/Hawpe/DeJesus/Raburn (hope not) - DH

Peralta - SS

Raburn/Boesch - LF

Avila - C

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Echo, 1. Beltre is going nowhere

2. Werth is WAY over rated. 15 mil for him? Ha!

1) So how exactly do you know Beltre is going nowhere? He has a player option that is only going to be worth $10M...he can decline that option and sign a multi-year deal worth quite a bit more. So what inside-information do you have that makes you think he won't be going anywhere? Oh yeah, and his agent is Scott Boras...you really think Boras is going to tell him to exercise the option? Oh and by the way, they (the Red Sox) have Lowrie waiting in the wings. But lets hear your theory.

2) How is Werth "over rated" (sp), over the last 4 seasons he has been a 3.2, 5.0, 4.8, and 3.8 WAR player. That is to go along with his .860-.890 OPS and he can field average to above-average.

If you're gonna say things like this why not elaborate a little bit and tell me why you think he is overrated or why you think Beltre is going to stay in Boston instead of just talking out of your ***.

Edited by EchO

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First of all, Beltre is with the red sox.... And he isnt leaveing. The Sox without all of their injurys would be in contention for their division. He knows that. No way we outbid Boston for him. Because we will have our eyes on other players.

Second as a player Werth is not over rated but 15 mil for him! a 32 year old!?! Shoot we gave Guillen a 4 year deal at 32 and that just panned out wondorfully. Crawford is 2 and a half years younger and we have the money to get him. So I suggest we go for Crawford and make Werth plan B.

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First of all, Beltre is with the red sox.... And he isnt leaveing. The Sox without all of their injurys would be in contention for their division. He knows that. No way we outbid Boston for him. Because we will have our eyes on other players.

Second as a player Werth is not over rated but 15 mil for him! a 32 year old!?! Shoot we gave Guillen a 4 year deal at 32 and that just panned out wondorfully. Crawford is 2 and a half years younger and we have the money to get him. So I suggest we go for Crawford and make Werth plan B.

Wow, thank you for your insight...not sure what I would do without that.

1) The Red Sox have Jed Lowrie to take over at 3B.

2) The Red Sox still have a bloated payroll, not sure if they are going to pay him 15 million a year.

3) Without injuries and some bad luck the TIGERS would be in contention for the division. Who has a better chance of making the playoffs...the Tigers in the Central or the Red Sox in the East with the Yankees and Rays. If we can add two big bats and a solid SP I like our chances in the Central more than the Red Sox' chances in the East.

4) You have absolutely no idea who the Tigers "have their eyes on." The only clue you have is DD saying he wants some RBI guys. Beltre is a 100+ RBI guy at a premium position.

5) The $15 million was strictly a guess, I have no idea what he will go for, but Werth has a fairly injury free past...unlike Guillen.

6) Crawford is going to be quite a bit more expensive than Werth and I don't think we have a real chance...nor do I necessarily want him.

Edited by EchO

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Using American League batters in 2002-2009 with 400 PA or more in a season, here are some correlations:

AB .57

BA .38

SLG .79

OBP .47

ISO .76

HR/PA .75

If we limit it to players with slg > .450:

AB .60

BA .15

SLG .64

OBP .31

ISO .60

HRP .60

Thanks Lee, this backed up a lot of my guesses. I was surprised to see weaker positive correlation with RBI when you filtered to just

the higher SLG though, interesting.

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I'll tell you one guy I'd want at the plate with RISP, that was Edgar Martinez.

I would take nine Edgars in the lineup over nine Tony Phillips, no doubt !!!

Also, quite shocked none of you brought up Tommy Herr's 1985 season - a whopping 110 RBI !!

(I hope he bought McGee and Coleman both a Cadillac at year's end)

As for Beltre keeping a spot warm for Lowrie, don't you need Lowrie at short pretty soon? The current guy (Scutaro) is about to turn 35.

Edited by DaYooperASBDT

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Wow, thank you for your insight...not sure what I would do without that.

1) The Red Sox have Jed Lowrie to take over at 3B.

2) The Red Sox still have a bloated payroll, not sure if they are going to pay him 15 million a year.

3) Without injuries and some bad luck the TIGERS would be in contention for the division. Who has a better chance of making the playoffs...the Tigers in the Central or the Red Sox in the East with the Yankees and Rays. If we can add two big bats and a solid SP I like our chances in the Central more than the Red Sox' chances in the East.

4) You have absolutely no idea who the Tigers "have their eyes on." The only clue you have is DD saying he wants some RBI guys. Beltre is a 100+ RBI guy at a premium position.

5) The $15 million was strictly a guess, I have no idea what he will go for, but Werth has a fairly injury free past...unlike Guillen.

6) Crawford is going to be quite a bit more expensive than Werth and I don't think we have a real chance...nor do I necessarily want him.

First of all, Beltre had one 100 RBI season priorto this season win which he will reach that stat and thats because he juiced back then ( He hit 48 hrs that year ). Detroits lineup isnt Bostons. I wont argue anymore about Beltre, but I am not interested in him. Period. Nor do I think Illitch is. If we get him, get great! But Crawford needs to be our main priority.

Edited by Uncle sam

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I like Beltre a lot, but his stats are enhanced by playing at Fenway - he would be overpaid most anywhere else. The Tigers have more gaping holes to deal with, namely LF, RF, DH, and arguably catcher (but keep Avila).

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I like Beltre a lot, but his stats are enhanced by playing at Fenway - he would be overpaid most anywhere else. The Tigers have more gaping holes to deal with, namely LF, RF, DH, and arguably catcher (but keep Avila).

Are you suggesting he is benefiting from Fenway itself or from the Boston lineup or both? He is actually hitting better away than at home, so if you were suggesting it was Fenway (the park) that was helping his stats...I'm not sure how much water that argument would hold.

I still don't think he would be overpaid, he is #4 in UZR/150 for all 3B, he is #1 in OOZ plays, he is also #9 in OPS and wOBA out of all players, and has a standard BABIP while doing it .339. And other than last year he has been extremely reliable. RBIs and Runs aside...he is has an excellent OPS/OBP/wOBA.

And I realize we have other needs, but if it came down to giving Dunn a sizable contract or giving a similar contract to Beltre...I think I would choose the latter.

Edited by EchO

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Interesting - his road OPS exceeds his home OPS by about .100 for his career, not just 2010.

Beltre has had such a huge spike in his batting stats, compared with his previous four years in Seattle, that I'm still concerned he will get overpaid. His glove to second to none, though.

Edited by DaYooperASBDT

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Interesting - his road OPS exceeds his home OPS by about .100 for his career, not just 2010.

Beltre has had such a huge spike in his batting stats, compared with his previous four years in Seattle, that I'm still concerned he will get overpaid. His glove to second to none, though.

Well Safeco is the worst rated hitters ballpark in the league, so I don't think that is that strange. I think the ballpark could have had a big influence on his stats during his years in Seattle. His career OPS at Safeco is .710...which is 80 points lower than his career numbers...interesting.

I don't think I would offer him 15 million a year, but I would love for DD to target him. He is the type of two-way player we really need. Elite defense, the potential to be a top 10-15 hitter, I'm a fan.

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I don't think I would offer him 15 million a year, but I would love for DD to target him. He is the type of two-way player we really need. Elite defense, the potential to be a top 10-15 hitter, I'm a fan.

Agree

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You make some good argument here. I would say that RISP is a better measure of success in RBI opportunities than RBI. If I wanted to know who the best "RBI guys" were in the past, I might use RISP. It's not predictive though. A batter with a good overall slugging average (which is what I would have used in this example instead of ops) is more likely to carry that success over into next year than RISP. You don't know what's going to happen next year but a batter has more control over slugging than risp or rbi, so I'll take that going forward.

I totally agree with you here. Slugging percentage, while certainly not perfect, is a good way to judge a hitter, far better than RBI, BA or OPS.

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I totally agree with you here. Slugging percentage, while certainly not perfect, is a good way to judge a hitter, far better than RBI, BA or OPS.

Slugging percentage is a better measure of a player's offensive contribution than OPS? I don't see how that's possible. Is Vernon Wells, with a .513 SLG and a .328 OBP having a better year than Joe Mauer, with a ..463 SLG and a .400 OBP? I don't think so.

Rob

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If it's free agents that drive runs in that we're looking for...

v. guerrero - 104 rbis

p. konerko - 104 rbis

a. beltre - 96 rbis

a. dunn - 91 rbis

al. gonzalez - 81 rbis

a. huff - 81 rbis

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