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ronniereb

Cliff Lee

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I am not suggesting they subtract anything from the current roster, I think they can give up one minor league pitcher (Turner) and some hitters and not severly hurt their chances for competing in 11-15. They would have Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, Oliver and TBA

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I am not suggesting they subtract anything from the current roster, I think they can give up one minor league pitcher (Turner) and some hitters and not severly hurt their chances for competing in 11-15

But given that Turner is probably going to be ready by 2012, I think it would hurt their chances. Jacob Turner isn't a minor league pitcher, he's one of the best pitching prospects in the game. When you trade someone like that, you had better make sure you're getting a worthwhile return, and to me, 3 months of Lee isn't worth it.

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All right, as far as I can tell, three inherited runners of Haren's have been allowed to score. Two of them came in the ninth inning of his last start, actually, and Heilman took the loss. From what I can see, Haren is often lifted to begin innings, and the bullpen has gotten hit around several times.

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But given that Turner is probably going to be ready by 2012, I think it would hurt their chances. Jacob Turner isn't a minor league pitcher, he's one of the best pitching prospects in the game. When you trade someone like that, you had better make sure you're getting a worthwhile return, and to me, 3 months of Lee isn't worth it.

It's a debateable argument I agree it's not a slam dunk. I'm just saying when you have the opportunity I think you have to go for it, and who's to say if he came here and liked it Lee might not sign here. I just think it's a risk worth taking and I'm old enough to remember the Alexander/Smoltz deal.

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All right, as far as I can tell, three inherited runners of Haren's have been allowed to score. Two of them came in the ninth inning of his last start, actually, and Heilman took the loss. From what I can see, Haren is often lifted to begin innings, and the bullpen has gotten hit around several times.

So his era would be 4.33 instead of 4.56, I was not far off with that .20.

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It's a debateable argument I agree it's not a slam dunk. I'm just saying when you have the opportunity I think you have to go for it, and who's to say if he came here and liked it Lee might not sign here. I just think it's a risk worth taking and I'm old enough to remember the Alexander/Smoltz deal.

I think two and a half years of a pitcher who is only 5% to 10% worse than Lee is less risky than potentially just three months of Lee.

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I think two and a half years of a pitcher who is only 5% to 10% worse than Lee is less risky than potentially just three months of Lee.

Thus making it debateable

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Okay you win, he's garbage.

I knew I' convince you sooner or later, this was fun guys I love a good debate and for the record I'd love to have Haren

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So his era would be 4.33 instead of 4.56, I was not far off with that .20.

But the 4.33 is from allowing more hits than he normally does, than any pitcher normally does, and from allowing more homers than he ever has. Has he suddenly lost some ability, or is it just a fluke? Given that he's striking out a guy an inning and walking 1.7 guys a game, I'm going to say that the ability is still there.

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But the 4.33 is from allowing more hits than he normally does, than any pitcher normally does, and from allowing more homers than he ever has. Has he suddenly lost some ability, or is it just a fluke? Given that he's striking out a guy an inning and walking 1.7 guys a game, I'm going to say that the ability is still there.

The debate rages on

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I knew I' convince you sooner or later, this was fun guys I love a good debate and for the record I'd love to have Haren

When a post is in a color, it's sarcasm.

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I'm married to the queen of sarcasm, I recognize when I see it, my response was a poor attempt at humor

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But the 4.33 is from allowing more hits than he normally does, than any pitcher normally does, and from allowing more homers than he ever has. Has he suddenly lost some ability, or is it just a fluke? Given that he's striking out a guy an inning and walking 1.7 guys a game, I'm going to say that the ability is still there.

You know whats funny..its a oretty simple analysis for those the understand the business and value premise..

You think Haren would be available if he was 11-4 2.35 like has has been numerous times at this point..nope he would be cost prohibitive.., because not only would he be as prodcutive as Lee, he would have cost certainty.

Anyone who fails to comprehend the luck aspect of BABIP, isn't really worth arguing with..I think all of us have learned to comprehend the mean regarding BABIP.

Haren is what he is, his peripherals support that fact. We would be buying low..is there a better time to buy??

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The debate rages on

Just go here and look at ERA, FIP, and xFIP for a minute:

Dan Haren » Statistics » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

FIP tries to calculate what ERA would look like with a league average batting average on balls in play, which is something that is largely out of a pitcher's hands. It's based on walks, strikeouts, homers, and innings.

xFIP tries to calculate what ERA would look like with league average home run per fly ball rate, which is around 10%. For some pitchers, like Verlander, I don't think xFIP is useful because Verlander has almost 1000 innings that say he can limit homers per fly ball. But given that Haren's career rate is right around 10% anyway, it's worth looking at here.

Year ERA FIP xFIP

2005 3.73 3.89 3.66

2006 4.12 4.12 3.83

2007 3.07 3.70 3.87

2008 3.33 3.01 3.21

2009 3.14 3.23 3.08

2010 4.56 3.90 3.43

The two numbers that stick out are his ERAs in 2007 and 2010. In 2007 his ERA was half a run better than it probably should have been based on walks, strikeouts, homers, and innings. In 2010 his ERA is half a run worse, at least, than it probably should be based on walks, strikeouts, homers, and innings.

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You know whats funny..its a oretty simple analysis for those the understand the business and value premise..

You think Haren would be available if he was 11-4 2.35 like has has been numerous times at this point..nope he would be cost prohibitive.., because not only would he be as prodcutive as Lee, he would have cost certainty.

Anyone who fails to comprehend the luck aspect of BABIP, isn't really worth arguing with..I think all of us have learned to comprehend the mean regarding BABIP.

Haren is what he is, his peripherals support that fact. We would be buying low..is there a better time to buy??

Duh, youz gize is just way smarter than me, I sorry I try to say my opinion

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All this Haren vs.Lee talk assumes that the prices are equal. Everyone understands that Haren for 2.5 years is worth more than Cliff Lee for .5 years. I'm not convinced that Arizona is even interested in trading Lee and, if they are, I expect the price to be much much higher than Cliff Lee.

All things being equal, give me Haren every time.

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All this Haren vs.Lee talk assumes that the prices are equal. Everyone understands that Haren for 2.5 years is worth more than Cliff Lee for .5 years. I'm not convinced that Arizona is even interested in trading Lee and, if they are, I expect the price to be much much higher than Cliff Lee.

All things being equal, give me Haren every time.

The price for Haren will be much higher given his contract status, thus being part of the debate. For the 100th tim I love to have Haren also

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I think Lee could be had more easily than Haren, surely. But like you I'd be willing to give up more for Haren to get a second ace-type pitcher in the rotation for not that much money for several seasons.

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I think Lee could be had more easily than Haren, surely. But like you I'd be willing to give up more for Haren to get a second ace-type pitcher in the rotation for not that much money for several seasons.

Plus, they could pay him $3.5 mil to leave if they don't want to give him $15.5 mil to pitch for them.

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Just go here and look at ERA, FIP, and xFIP for a minute:

Dan Haren » Statistics » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

FIP tries to calculate what ERA would look like with a league average batting average on balls in play, which is something that is largely out of a pitcher's hands. It's based on walks, strikeouts, homers, and innings.

xFIP tries to calculate what ERA would look like with league average home run per fly ball rate, which is around 10%. For some pitchers, like Verlander, I don't think xFIP is useful because Verlander has almost 1000 innings that say he can limit homers per fly ball. But given that Haren's career rate is right around 10% anyway, it's worth looking at here.

Year ERA FIP xFIP

2005 3.73 3.89 3.66

2006 4.12 4.12 3.83

2007 3.07 3.70 3.87

2008 3.33 3.01 3.21

2009 3.14 3.23 3.08

2010 4.56 3.90 3.43

The two numbers that stick out are his ERAs in 2007 and 2010. In 2007 his ERA was half a run better than it probably should have been based on walks, strikeouts, homers, and innings. In 2010 his ERA is half a run worse, at least, than it probably should be based on walks, strikeouts, homers, and innings.

Valid arguments indeed

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What the hell is so great about this year? Why does every year have to be the year we go for it? Maybe we should try being the Rays and just get lots of good players in a great farm system so that we don't have to keep considering blowing up the system on a prayer of winning the division. Even if they traded for Lee and won the division, does anyone think the Tigers are good enough to beat make it to the WS or win it? I don't.

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Plus, they could pay him $3.5 mil to leave if they don't want to give him $15.5 mil to pitch for them.

And maybe make the WS, isn't that what they play for

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