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cruzer1

When is Boesch not a fluke?

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as much of a SABR as I am..I love these articles.

Hey guys..Brennan Boesch isn't going to hit .340 this year because...

ya think..

hey..Danny Worth isn't gonna hit .300 either..ya think..

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When I'm at a game and he drives in a run I always point out "He's not going to keep this up." It always makes for a good time amongst my seat mates. They're real happy to hear it while clapping and cheering.

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After Boesch's first week, did you think he'd sustain it? After his first month? After his first two months? Every single time, he did.

Why not now?

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After Boesch's first week, did you think he'd sustain it? After his first month? After his first two months? Every single time, he did.

Why not now?

Two months just isn't really that long.

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Two months just isn't really that long.

Just playing devil's advocate. I didn't think he could keep it up either, and here he is, a snubbed all-star. I don't know if he'll finish the year at .340, but I won't be surprised if he does.

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So I guess the answer is, if he can sustain this over another 300-400 PAs, he statistically is no longer a fluke.

That sounds about right. It's difficult to see him being a total fluke though. He could drop off a lot and still be a much more productive player than originally expected.

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I'm sure this was brought up in this thread at some point, but would you look to trade Boesch in the off season? With Detroit having payroll flexibility, perhaps they could use Boesch as a centerpiece to land a proven hitter.

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I'm sure this was brought up in this thread at some point, but would you look to trade Boesch in the off season? With Detroit having payroll flexibility, perhaps they could use Boesch as a centerpiece to land a proven hitter.

No. Because of his lack of minor league credentials, other teams are going to be far more skeptical. His value to the Tigers is higher than his trade value.

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I'm sure this was brought up in this thread at some point, but would you look to trade Boesch in the off season? With Detroit having payroll flexibility, perhaps they could use Boesch as a centerpiece to land a proven hitter.

So you think he IS a fluke and want to trade 'im

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Actually, he is a fluke (in a different way) because you can't expect future rookies to do the same thing. The last time, a Tigers hitter exceeded expectations like this was Cecil Fielder. I don't think there have been any other Tigers in my lifetime that come close.

Fidrych

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Fidrych

I was thinking of hitters because pitchers are less predictable. He does fit in the category of guys that exceeded expectations though.

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After Boesch's first week, did you think he'd sustain it? After his first month? After his first two months? Every single time, he did.

Why not now?

just for the sake of argument, the reason is that the longer he sustains what he is doing, the rarer the feat he has accomplished becomes, and so at each point in time, the odds continue to be against him. The extreme case being that if he batted 340 from now to the end of his career, it would mean we are looking at one of the 20 best average hitters to have ever played in the majors. I'd say the odds will continue to be against that for quite a while longer.

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That sounds about right. It's difficult to see him being a total fluke though. He could drop off a lot and still be a much more productive player than originally expected.

Very true. Also, according to that, his BB% and K% are already statistically relevant, leaving only ISO and BA. ISO was IMO his strength as a prospect and therefore shouldn't really be considered completely flukish from a statistical perspective.

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That sounds about right. It's difficult to see him being a total fluke though. He could drop off a lot and still be a much more productive player than originally expected.

I think it's still pretty easy to see him being a total fluke

Colvin and Boesch Going Forward | FanGraphs Baseball

you can ignore the actual text here, but look at the players with similarly power based hot starts to Boesch, not a lot of long term success there.

I think seeing Boesch show the ability to improve, draw walks, and continue to hit for power, along with the fact that his start has been better than nearly everyone on that list, he definitely has a chance to not be a fluke, but it's not even close to a done deal for me. Boesch is simply an incredibly rare player, not many players in the history of the game have had this great of a start to a career, whether they were flukes or went on to have great hitting careers. I think it's pretty tough for anyone regardless of how they evaluate talent to really guess what's going to happen next.

And of course to the other people in the thread, for the millionth time, it is possible to enjoy a player's performance at the time and still look to the future. It would have been cool if the Tigers traded Armando Galarraga after the 2008 season, but that doesn't mean his 2008 never happened. Fluke or no he was very good and a big part of the team's success (well not that they had a lot, but he was a lot of what they had)

Every time Boesch comes up in a big spot I expect him to get a hit, and I'm excited to see him bat. I'm not sitting around going "well he'll probably regress and make an out here, I sure wish Brandon Inge was up instead" but that doesn't mean you can't be thinking "will he still be doing this in 2011?"

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I think it's still pretty easy to see him being a total fluke

Colvin and Boesch Going Forward | FanGraphs Baseball

you can ignore the actual text here, but look at the players with similarly power based hot starts to Boesch, not a lot of long term success there.

I think seeing Boesch show the ability to improve, draw walks, and continue to hit for power, along with the fact that his start has been better than nearly everyone on that list, he definitely has a chance to not be a fluke, but it's not even close to a done deal for me. Boesch is simply an incredibly rare player, not many players in the history of the game have had this great of a start to a career, whether they were flukes or went on to have great hitting careers. I think it's pretty tough for anyone regardless of how they evaluate talent to really guess what's going to happen next.

And of course to the other people in the thread, for the millionth time, it is possible to enjoy a player's performance at the time and still look to the future. It would have been cool if the Tigers traded Armando Galarraga after the 2008 season, but that doesn't mean his 2008 never happened. Fluke or no he was very good and a big part of the team's success (well not that they had a lot, but he was a lot of what they had)

Every time Boesch comes up in a big spot I expect him to get a hit, and I'm excited to see him bat. I'm not sitting around going "well he'll probably regress and make an out here, I sure wish Brandon Inge was up instead" but that doesn't mean you can't be thinking "will he still be doing this in 2011?"

That article is garbage in my opinion. If you read the comments many posters explained the fallacies and oversights within the article.

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Bryan Smith was just exploring a new way to analyze players who exceed expectations. It's a work in progress as is a lot of research. The article wasn't garbage but I wouldn't make any strong conclusions from it either. It was a stepping stone analysis rather than a definitive one.

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Yes, which is why I said to ignore the text. The point was merely that their have been quite a few guys who emerged based on power and then fell off, which ties into the 'it takes longer for power numbers to stabilize and mean something' comments.

I'm certainly not saying Boesch is doomed to become Brian Daubach.

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Yes, which is why I said to ignore the text. The point was merely that their have been quite a few guys who emerged based on power and then fell off, which ties into the 'it takes longer for power numbers to stabilize and mean something' comments.

I'm certainly not saying Boesch is doomed to become Brian Daubach.

My eyes are burning just thinking about Brian Daubach.

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Would people be disappointed if he became Luke Scott?

yes..he already hits LHP a lot better than Luke Scott ever has or will.

The kid has one thing you can never judge until you watch a player over a period of time..aptitude, he makes in game adjustments, I love that about him.

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