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GartenSpartan

Max Scherzer's Velocity?

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One thing that's been concerning to me, and I mentioned it in the game thread earlier, was the significant decrease in velocity by Max Scherzer so far. Eric mentioned that it's probably not worth being concerned about until about June, but I figure its something we can keep track of.

According to Fangraphs coming into this game 5 starts 27.2 innings:

Fastball Velocity: 91.8 mph

Slider Velocity: 83.3 mph

Changeup Velocity: 81.7 mph

Last year's averages:

Fastball: 93.6 mph

Slider: 85.0 mph

Changeup: 84.3 mph

April 2009 averages 5 starts 20.2 innings:

Fastball: 94.2

Slider: 84.4

Changeup: 84.8 mph

The reason I'm including April of last years numbers from fangraphs is because Dickerson and Price were talking during today's broadcast about his velocity and how they were saying they thought he was still building arm strength as the new season progresses. I wanted to compare to last season to see if it was an issue last year too and it looks like it was not.

In today's game according to brooks baseball his fastball averaged 90.85 mph on 53 pitches. Without getting into rate stats this early in the season, I thought it would be worth discussing this velocity so far this season and to see if and when it is worth being concerned about.

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One thing that's been concerning to me, and I mentioned it in the game thread earlier, was the significant decrease in velocity by Max Scherzer so far. Eric mentioned that it's probably not worth being concerned about until about June, but I figure its something we can keep track of.

According to Fangraphs coming into this game 5 starts 27.2 innings:

Fastball Velocity: 91.8 mph

Slider Velocity: 83.3 mph

Changeup Velocity: 81.7 mph

Last year's averages:

Fastball: 93.6 mph

Slider: 85.0 mph

Changeup: 84.3 mph

April 2009 averages 5 starts 20.2 innings:

Fastball: 94.2

Slider: 84.4

Changeup: 84.8 mph

The reason I'm including April of last years numbers from fangraphs is because Dickerson and Price were talking during today's broadcast about his velocity and how they were saying they thought he was still building arm strength as the new season progresses. I wanted to compare to last season to see if it was an issue last year too and it looks like it was not.

In today's game according to brooks baseball his fastball averaged 90.85 mph on 53 pitches. Without getting into rate stats this early in the season, I thought it would be worth discussing this velocity so far this season and to see if and when it is worth being concerned about.

just got back from the game and at no point was Scherzer throwing any harder than Baker on the Stadium gun. Both were topping out at 90, maybe a couple 91s, but that was about it. Since Baker is hardly considered a power pitcher, but Scherzer was most definitely billed as one, there seems to be a problem on our end....

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Was thinking the same thing about 'Mad' Max's velocity - as he was billed a power P. It really has not been there yet and is currently no more than avg. (ex. similar to Bonnine now and even less than Brad Thomas). Hopefully he IS building arm strength. I did see him shaking his arm several times yesterday (perhaps a habit) and hopefully that is nothing. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt and wait and see.

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Garten, I discussed this with you in the game thread too, but I agree it is a bit baffling. Didn't someone say he's just getting lose for the season still? That being said, your numbers are quite different. A -2.4 mph difference in April thus far is significant.

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I move that use of the word "concerning" as a participle adjective be banned from this board.:grin:

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I move that use of the word "concerning" as a participle adjective be banned from this board.:grin:

I second that. And I don't even know what you mean.

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I second that. And I don't even know what you mean.

His thought having a 2nd has been concerning me since I read it.

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Today Scherzer averaged 92.5 MPH, topping out at 95.4 MPH.

He did show a little less velocity after pitch #50.

Biggest issue today was location - especially getting the first pitch over:

&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=

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So far I'm having a difficult time seeing what the Tigers were/are so high on. His control sucks and his lack of velocity is a major concern. I also have never seen him pitch before this season, so I can't say if this is an aberration or a normal course of events with this guy. The only guy more hittable on the team right now is Porcello and I'm not real happy with his results yet either.

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So far I'm having a difficult time seeing what the Tigers were/are so high on. His control sucks and his lack of velocity is a major concern. I also have never seen him pitch before this season, so I can't say if this is an aberration or a normal course of events with this guy. The only guy more hittable on the team right now is Porcello and I'm not real happy with his results yet either.

i aint never seen this dude before but hes pretty hittable i mean yeha he struck out a batter an inning last season but thats the nl and its full of Awful Hitters like todd helton and troy tylowitski and pablo sandoval and adrian gonzales and manny ramirez and matt kemp and andre ethier and

i mean i could wait a few more starts before pronouncing judgment on him but what fun would that be when i can write him off right now

hard to see why your still so high on percello right now cuz hes been worse than shurtzer and obviously were not taking past results or probable ceiling into account when evaluating players

hey this is fun who else can i throw in the trash after 15% of their season

mark texeiria sucks

ben zobrist sucks

aroid lol sucks

dallas braden is the best pitcher except for livan hernandez

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i aint never seen this dude before but hes pretty hittable i mean yeha he struck out a batter an inning last season but thats the nl and its full of Awful Hitters like todd helton and troy tylowitski and pablo sandoval and adrian gonzales and manny ramirez and matt kemp and andre ethier and

i mean i could wait a few more starts before pronouncing judgment on him but what fun would that be when i can write him off right now

hard to see why your still so high on percello right now cuz hes been worse than shurtzer and obviously were not taking past results or probable ceiling into account when evaluating players

hey this is fun who else can i throw in the trash after 15% of their season

mark texeiria sucks

ben zobrist sucks

aroid lol sucks

dallas braden is the best pitcher except for livan hernandez

You forgot to mention how Dana Eveland is going to win the Cy Young.

Scherzer just needs a shakeup.

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Yeah the team lost but hey kids, look: Last year he struck out a batter per inning. Last year his babip was .50 lower. Last year he had promise. Last year.....

It's 2010. Not 2009.

Dont be a dick to people for not liking what they see so far. It's not like they're unjustified. Sheesh.

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Yeah the team lost but hey kids, look: Last year he struck out a batter per inning. Last year his babip was .50 lower. Last year he had promise. Last year.....

It's 2010. Not 2009.

Dont be a dick to people for not liking what they see so far. It's not like they're unjustified. Sheesh.

I don't like what I see either. Scherzer has sucked this year, no doubt. But to say that after watching 38 or whatever of the innings in his career that "it's hard to see why the Tigers are/were so high on him" is not saying "I don't like what I see so far."

People are giving Porcello the benefit of the doubt because they saw what he did last season. All I'm saying is to afford Scherzer the same thing. Yeah, there are some idiots who are calling for Porcello to go to AAA, but no one is doubting his talent because they saw it last season. Almost no one saw Scherzer pitch last season, so to them it's some remote success in another, 'inferior' league.

Scherzer has sucked and he's going to get better. Porcello has sucked and he's going to get better. They're both going to get better because they've been better in their past, they're still young, and these are two of the top, say, fifteen young arms in the game. Arizona didn't draft him so high for nothing. Dombrowski didn't trade Edwin Jackson for him for nothing.

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I live in Arizona, but I am a Tigers fan. I watch the D-Backs too when I'm not watching the Tigers. Last year Scherzer threw harder in AZ, but the weather might be part of the reason he is pitching poorly in Detroit right now. Most of the teams he played last year at this time are on the west coast where the weather is above 65°. He might just need to get loose. Just speculation.

The big concern about him was that he never went deep into games. His velocity was never an issue.

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I don't like what I see either. Scherzer has sucked this year, no doubt. But to say that after watching 38 or whatever of the innings in his career that "it's hard to see why the Tigers are/were so high on him" is not saying "I don't like what I see so far."

People are giving Porcello the benefit of the doubt because they saw what he did last season. All I'm saying is to afford Scherzer the same thing. Yeah, there are some idiots who are calling for Porcello to go to AAA, but no one is doubting his talent because they saw it last season. Almost no one saw Scherzer pitch last season, so to them it's some remote success in another, 'inferior' league.

Scherzer has sucked and he's going to get better. Porcello has sucked and he's going to get better. They're both going to get better because they've been better in their past, they're still young, and these are two of the top, say, fifteen young arms in the game. Arizona didn't draft him so high for nothing. Dombrowski didn't trade Edwin Jackson for him for nothing.

Porcello was better than Scherzer was last year and he did it in the A.L. I don't think I really "like" the Scherzer/Porcello comparison.

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I live in Arizona, but I am a Tigers fan. I watch the D-Backs too when I'm not watching the Tigers. Last year Scherzer threw harder in AZ, but the weather might be part of the reason he is pitching poorly in Detroit right now. Most of the teams he played last year at this time are on the west coast where the weather is above 65°. He might just need to get loose. Just speculation.

The big concern about him was that he never went deep into games. His velocity was never an issue.

I'm hoping you are dead on with this post - sometimes a drop in velocity is a precursor to an injury, so I'm really, really hoping you are right. He did throw harder this time out, compared with previous starts, but he's going to have to locate much better going forward.

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Porcello was better than Scherzer was last year and he did it in the A.L. I don't think I really "like" the Scherzer/Porcello comparison.

Porcello was better by ERA, Scherzer by FIP. Call it a wash. Porcello's got more talent overall but Scherzer is going to be a solid #2 type starter for years to come if he can throw just a few more strikes. His walk rate in the past hasn't been awful at 3.3, but if he could shave that a bit and generally throw maybe 3% more strikes, he'll be super useful.

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They said on the broadcast Knapp was working on some things with Scherzer to get his fastball back to being an effective pitch. I saw some truly wild pitches, but also some very good flashes. Hopefully, the wildness is just him getting used to the adjustment, and I'm hopeful because that seems plausible to me.

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I could definitely see what the Tigers saw in Scherzer. In fact, he seemed too good to be true and I questioned why the DBacks were willing to trade him along with Schlereth for two pitchers who seemed inferior to Scherzer. I was expecting durability issues. I think we are now discovering that he is a pitcher with upside but not very polished.

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Porcello was better by ERA, Scherzer by FIP. Call it a wash. Porcello's got more talent overall but Scherzer is going to be a solid #2 type starter for years to come if he can throw just a few more strikes. His walk rate in the past hasn't been awful at 3.3, but if he could shave that a bit and generally throw maybe 3% more strikes, he'll be super useful.

I think it might be a bit better than a wash on the Porcello side but, I do hope the best for Max, we really need him.:happy:

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But to say that after watching 38 or whatever of the innings in his career that "it's hard to see why the Tigers are/were so high on him" is not saying "I don't like what I see so far."

Well, Mr. Know-it-all, if "it's hard to see why the Tigers are/were so high on him" doesn't equate to "I don't like what I see so far", then what does it actually mean?

Second of all, the last Tigers pitcher to transition from NL to AL was Dontrelle Willis, let's see what were his first 38 innings like? Oh wait I have that right here:

2008 0-2 9.38 8 7 0 0 0 0 24.0 18 25 25 4 1 35 18

2009 1-4 7.49 7 7 0 0 0 0 33.2 37 28 28 4 1 28 17

Now I'm not saying Scherzer is going to pitch like Willis did for 2+ years, nor am I comparing the two in any way other than to illustrate that even the Tigers braintrust can be wrong and make mistakes. Scherzer has sucked so far and I hope he can turn it around, but so far I haven't seen any inkling of the pitcher he was touted to be. Any more questions, Dick?

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Well, Mr. Know-it-all, ... Any more questions, Dick?

My name is Eric. Not sure where you got the Richard from.

or hey maybe you just randomly capitalize some of Your improper nouns i hear its all the raGe on mlive these days oh hey by the bye your username is indicative of your personality MADman haha

I don't think I said anything offensive at all in my post, so don't get all bent out of shape about it. You said you couldn't see why they liked Scherzer and I said he hasn't looked good in his 38 innings. Go watch one of his good games from last season and you'll see what they see in him.

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Not that Eric's reply was entirely called for and respectful, but I think it's a pretty weak take to say "I don't know what they saw in him" when you haven't seen any of the preceding performance that they were basing their decision on.

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