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Tigers in on Valverde

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This is a good point. I probably still wouldn't sign him, but that is a good point that you raised. How likely is it that he would stay a Type A FA?

Hold on boys..he had a decent season last year and the offers aren;t exactly flowing in..he will be a year older and his numbers will be from a better league..

I thought the same thing then I reconsidered..it's a low percentage play on all levels..

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his numbers will be from a better league..

Does the difference in league really matter for closers? It's not like Valverde faced many pitchers last year.

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Does the difference in league really matter for closers? It's not like Valverde faced many pitchers last year.

The AL just has better players and even if it's not the full .50 there will be some effect..

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How likely is it that he would stay a Type A FA?

I'm not sure, but I wanted to throw it out there. I'm sure Edman knows.

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The AL just has better players and even if it's not the full .50 there will be some effect..

I think the pendulum is swinging back a bit to the NL. There is a ton of good young talent in the NL right now.

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I think the pendulum is swinging back a bit to the NL. There is a ton of good young talent in the NL right now.

If we are going to limit this to hitters..go review the top 60 players in each league by number of hits and I think you will find, that the AL has just as many young solid hitters as the NL..maybe more.

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I'm not sure, but I wanted to throw it out there. I'm sure Edman knows.

Too early to tell... We've only got half his data and we don't even know who he's going to be ranked against.

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It just strikes me as a low risk/low reward plan. Yeah, signing Valverde isn't going to be disasterous; they have many outlets to recoup his value if the team isn't contending, and they can sign him for 1 year and not commit a ton of money.

However, they aren't likely to be in a situation where his value is going to be the difference between being competitive and not. They don't have a lot of money, but they're gonna spend some on him and give up a draft pick so that maybe they can get similar value when he leaves. It strikes me as the kind of deal for the sake of making a deal that the Royals love to do.

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Over the last 3 years he's averaged 1.7 WPA, 1.2 REW, 0.7 WPA/LI. He has an excellent K/9 and K/BB rates. I'm not saying they should give him whatever he wants, but this is the stage of FA is where you will find some bargains and they should absolutely be kicking the tires on some of these still useful players.

Obviously the loss of the draft pick means you should offer him a few million less than otherwise, but that's still $5-$6M or so IMO. Especially with the bullpen we have now.....if Zumaya or Perry are the back end in 2010 and have the seasons they had in 2009, this team will be crying.

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I like Valverde a lot, but unless the Tigers truly feel like they can contend this year, they have to hang onto that first round pick like gold. The two sandwich picks don't make it okay to give up the first rounder, in my opinion. All three need to be used to strengthen the future.

The Tigers invested a lot towards relievers in the '08 draft and the Granderson/Jackson trade. They shouldn't consider going even farther by surrendering a blue chip prospect and free agent money that would have been better spent on hitting.

Between the '08 draftees, Zumaya, Seay and the other holdovers, there has to be at least one guy who can hold down the role, even if the road is rocky determining which one it is.

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I think you're overvaluing the draft pick. Last time we were around this position, we did well I think to get Ryan Perry, who is no Jose Valverde. And I like the strategy of going with a cheap bullpen with a lot of arms and letting them duke it out, but if you have a chance to get a guy at a relative bargain you can't ignore it.

Regarding contending, I wouldn't call us the favorites by any stretch, but I think you have to do what you can to put yourself in position in case things go well. There's other guys I'd rather spend $5M on (Smoltz) or $3M on (Thome) but there's still value there with Valverde.

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Some of this data would be a bit dated, but from 1990-1999, a player picked between #16-20 averaged 0.72 WAR wins a year their first 6 years in the big leagues. At roughly $4.5 million per win on the open market, a draft pick taken at #19 is really worth between $19 to $20 million and would provide several millions worth of surplus value. Obviously, some guys will bust and some will pan out. But, from a business perspective, that 1st round pick is worth a lot of money. If you sign Valverde, you not only pay him for his contract, but you also are giving away (on average) roughly $20 million worth of production from your would be draft pick.

Feeling a*Draft - Beyond the Box Score

Usual caveats would apply. Prospects turn out to be bust quite a bit. Whether we select a college player or high school player effects the potential value. Whether we draft a hitter or pitcher also effects the potential value. But, that 1st round pick is worth quite a bit even when we factor in the potential that the player is a complete bust. Additional links on values of prospects:

AL West Farm System*Values - Beyond the Box Score

The Baseball Analysts: The Draft and Wins Above Replacement (Part 2)

The Baseball Analysts: Draft Picks and Expected Wins Above Replacement

Edited by Scottwood

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The problem with losing the draft pick here is that even if Valverde lives up to the expectations you might have, his impact is pretty limited by the fact that he's a reliever. It'd have to be a situation just like in 09 to be really worth all the trouble, I think.

Of course, that JUST happened, so, maybe I shouldn't be so quick to discount the possibility.

Edited by The Truman Show

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I think you're overvaluing the draft pick. Last time we were around this position, we did well I think to get Ryan Perry, who is no Jose Valverde. And I like the strategy of going with a cheap bullpen with a lot of arms and letting them duke it out, but if you have a chance to get a guy at a relative bargain you can't ignore it.

Regarding contending, I wouldn't call us the favorites by any stretch, but I think you have to do what you can to put yourself in position in case things go well. There's other guys I'd rather spend $5M on (Smoltz) or $3M on (Thome) but there's still value there with Valverde.

Why would any rational thinking GM spend 5MM on a 43 year old pitcher who was ineffective for the entire 2009 season.

I like Thome for 3MM but Dombrowski has already said he is not signing a one dimensional DH.

A bargain is not your 1st round draft choice plus 4MM or more in salary. Chadd and Dombrowski have demonstrated a consistent ability to draft players who make the big leagues, especially since 2004, regardless of draft position in the 1st round.

Edited by sportz4life

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Chadd and Dombrowski have demonstrated a consistent ability to draft players who make the big leagues, especially since 2004, regardless of draft position in the 1st round.

I give them credit for that, but Illitch has also allowed them to go over slot money to get those guys. Maybe the organization feels as if they are not going to be in position to that this year - either because they don't like who's available or because other teams will take the worthy candidates.

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Some of this data would be a bit dated, but from 1990-1999, a player picked between #16-20 averaged 0.72 WAR wins a year their first 6 years in the big leagues. At roughly $4.5 million per win on the open market, a draft pick taken at #19 is really worth between $19 to $20 million and would provide several millions worth of surplus value. Obviously, some guys will bust and some will pan out. But, from a business perspective, that 1st round pick is worth a lot of money. If you sign Valverde, you not only pay him for his contract, but you also are giving away (on average) roughly $20 million worth of production from your would be draft pick.

Feeling a*Draft - Beyond the Box Score

Usual caveats would apply. Prospects turn out to be bust quite a bit. Whether we select a college player or high school player effects the potential value. Whether we draft a hitter or pitcher also effects the potential value. But, that 1st round pick is worth quite a bit even when we factor in the potential that the player is a complete bust. Additional links on values of prospects:

AL West Farm System*Values - Beyond the Box Score

The Baseball Analysts: The Draft and Wins Above Replacement (Part 2)

The Baseball Analysts: Draft Picks and Expected Wins Above Replacement

Those other links pretty much said to expect 2-3 WAR from the 19 spot.....16-20 appeared to be a flukish spot. When you consider a $2 M signing bonus and the MLB minimum of $400K for 6 years, that's a minimum $4.4M investment. Conservatively you can put that at $6-$8M for 6 years, and at $3.5-$4M per win for the 2-3 WAR figure $7M-$12M in total value. So figure the pick is worth, on average, a net of $1M-$4M.

So I think subtracting $2M off of what you would normally pay Valverde to make up for the loss of the draft pick seems reasonable.

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Why would any rational thinking GM spend 5MM on a 43 year old pitcher who was ineffective for the entire 2009 season.

I like Thome for 3MM but Dombrowski has already said he is not signing a one dimensional DH.

A bargain is not your 1st round draft choice plus 4MM or more in salary. Chadd and Dombrowski have demonstrated a consistent ability to draft players who make the big leagues, especially since 2004, regardless of draft position in the 1st round.

Smoltz? 3.87 FIP, 3.84 xFIP, 4.06 K/BB. And that was last year, his off year. He was still worth 1.5 WAR according to fangraphs.

Maybe $5M is a bit much, as his REW and WPA/LI weren't great, but everything says he pitched better than his ERA indicates.

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Those other links pretty much said to expect 2-3 WAR from the 19 spot.....16-20 appeared to be a flukish spot.

I never saw that explanation in any of those articles. The first link I provided had the exact breakdown of the average WAR for each draft slot, and another article specifically mentioned that there was a lot of variability between each draft pick. Therefore, one could argue that it is better to look at a cluster of picks (like #16-20) rather than looking at the WAR of each specific draft pick.

In terms of surplus value, type A picks are generally worth about $5 million when they are tier-1 picks (16-30).

Tier 1 Surplus Value: $5.23 million

Tier 2 Surplus Value: $2.63 million

Tier 3 Surplus Value: $0.76 million

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/valuing-the-draft-part-one/

Edited by Scottwood

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I never saw that explanation in any of those articles. The first link I provided had the exact breakdown of the average WAR for each draft slot, and another article specifically mentioned that there was a lot of variability between each draft pick. Therefore, one could argue that it is better to look at a cluster of picks (like #16-20) rather than looking at the WAR of each specific draft pick.

look at the graphs and the parabolic fit. that pretty much considers every pick to some degree.

11-15 scored worse than 16-20 which was 3 times better than 21-30. that just screams random variance, unless you have a better explanation.

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Smoltz? 3.87 FIP, 3.84 xFIP, 4.06 K/BB. And that was last year, his off year. He was still worth 1.5 WAR according to fangraphs.

Maybe $5M is a bit much, as his REW and WPA/LI weren't great, but everything says he pitched better than his ERA indicates.

First of all he doesn't want to come back to the AL, unless he has zero other options..and based upon how he was crushed, can you blame him.

Second, he wants to start not close..if he saud I want to be in Detroit and close I would at least consider an incentive laden deal..

You cherry picked a few peripherals..there were others that indicated some pretty bad pitching.

The single biggest reason to consider it..he is a year removed from surgery and health wise he should be a lot more reliable..but I sincerely believe he does not want to close.

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look at the graphs and the parabolic fit. that pretty much considers every pick to some degree.

11-15 scored worse than 16-20 which was 3 times better than 21-30. that just screams random variance, unless you have a better explanation.

#11-15 was only slightly worse than #16-20. The average WAR from #11-15 was 0.66 and the average WAR from #16-20 was 0.72. I don't think that is that alarming.

On the other hand, the drop off from 16-20 to 21-30 was significant. The average WAR for that slot was 0.24. I don't necessarily see that as random variance. That seems like a clear drop while the picks from #11-20 performed relatively similar.

Edited by Scottwood

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look at the graphs and the parabolic fit. that pretty much considers every pick to some degree.

11-15 scored worse than 16-20 which was 3 times better than 21-30. that just screams random variance, unless you have a better explanation.

There is a lot to be said for who is doing the picking..as much as who is being picked..

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It should be noted that the Baseball Analysts articles looked at career WAR whereas the Beyond the Box Score article only looked at a player's first 6 years. So, some of those WAR totals will look different between the two articles b/c they are using different data. In terms of valuing draft picks, though, teams should mostly be interested in what a player does his first 6 years b/c that is all they are guaranteed to have him for.

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