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MLB Winter Meetings/Granderson Jackson Trade Thread

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It was a great deal for every team I think. Funny because I always forget about edwin jackson. Normally I'd consider him a throw away but we gave up a decent player for him in matt joyce.

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Originally Posted by Big Toe View Post Heyman's last report has us giving up Edwin and Grandy and getting Scherzer, Schlereth, Austin Jackson and Phil Coke. Not a fan at all.

To me this sounds better than last night, now throw in DTrain to the Yanks.

This wasn't bashing the deal, although I was trying to dump the Dtrain deal on the Yankees.

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My bet:

Barring injuries, in EACH of 2010, 2011 and 2012, Granderson will be a plus fielder and a plus hitter, and his WAR will be significantly higher than our CF each year.

I would not bet on Austin Jackson outproducting Granderson in 2013 and beyond. It's not a bad bet, but I don't think it's a good bet.

Granderson's WAR: 4.5, 5.4, 3.0

Jackson's WAR: 5.2, 5.0, 5.5

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Granderson's WAR: 4.5, 5.4, 3.0

Jackson's WAR: 5.2, 5.0, 5.5

First of all, I learned one thing from this experience about predictions/projections – defensive stats are too volatile to make season-specific predictions from. I should have stuck to offensive stats and offered general assessments of defensive value (I still would have been too positive about Granderson's future defensive performance, as I have stated before). If you’re going to bring up my prediction, it should be recalled that I have already admitted a bunch of times in this thread that I overestimated Granderson’s future defensive stats.

In terms of 2010, I had said “barring injuries”. Granderson was clearly impacted in 2010 both in playing time and performance by his injury…to say nothing of Jackson’s BABIP-inflation. Not to mention, the relatively small advantage that Jackson seemingly and luckily eeked out in 2010 didn’t matter much for a team struggling to play .500 ball.

In 2011, the huge difference in defensive stats favoring Jackson notwithstanding, Granderson was clearly a lot more valuable as a player than Jackson. Jackson was a Gary Pettis level hitter in 2011. There’s simply no way that the difference in their defense can possibly make up 4+ wins, especially when they were within 0.2 WAR difference defensively the year before.

So finally things panned out in 2012, thanks to Jackson suddenly and miraculously reinventing himself from a pile of crap to an all-around force as a hitter, thanks to big reductions in strikeouts, more walks, and more flyballs. Nobody, not even the biggest pro-trade/pro-Austin slappy predicted ANYTHING like this improvement after 2011.

Scherzer worked out well, and I have always been in favor of getting him, just not by giving up a young veteran star in his prime.

Nevertheless, as I have pointed out in this thread over the past year or so, the Tigers could have kept Granderson and still would have been able to build the same hitting/defensive team performance in 2012 on a payroll-neutral basis, largely by acquiring a good defensive CF (who would have also kept Brennan Boesch out of a starting job, another plus).

Also, if I’m going to eat crow over my predictions, how about all of the folks who gleefully kicked Granderson to the curb in 2009 with rostrums of “decline!!”, a far more incorrect claim than anything I predicted, and based largely on one sub-par year.

Bottom line, I don’t agree with the strategy of trading young veteran positional stars in their prime for prospects, especially young veterans with reasonable contracts (which Grandy’s clearly was, despite again all of the protests to the contrary). I will never cheer such a strategy nor the departure of those types of players as many here did.

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I can't speak for anybody else but I've never once referenced his numbers from 1 month. I didn't do what you said his detractors did.

Here's what I did reference:

http://www.motownsports.com/forums/detroit-tigers/78164-mlb-winter-meetings-granderson-jackson-trade-thread-103.html#post2491919

http://www.motownsports.com/forums/detroit-tigers/89282-sophomore-slumps-austin-jackson-10.html#post2473928

These two analysis are both based on peformance inclusive of 2010 - Present (at the time of the posts).

My argument that Jackson will have to improve significantly to be an average hitter is based on normalizing his "luck" with regards to balls hit in play with what is experienced by virtually every other player in baseball over multiple seasons: .250 average on GB, .135 average on FB, .725 average on LD.

His average on GB so far is .311 for both years, .316 for 2010 and .235 or 2011 so far. I would expect that a speedy guy like Jackson might have a better-than-average BABIP on GB but .316 is unheard of -- Ichiro is the best and he only averages about .300.

More than 24% of all balls in play are LDs for him -- the average is below 20% for the league, and there are only 20 regulars over the last 3 years who have been able to maintain an average over 21%, only 4 guys over 23%. The odds are against him that he can keep that up long-term; maybe he can keep it solidly over 20%, though.

As I stated in one of the posts above, if he can:

1. cut down on the Ks by at least 20 (preferably 30) percent

2. keep the linedrive rate high (maybe 22%+)

3. regain a speedy groundball batting average

4. add a little HR power (> 5% HR/FB)

...he can be an average to plus hitter. Any two of those four things will be difficult to achieve. All four will require a major improvement approaching age 25. Can it be done? Sure. Is it likely? I don't think so.

I think he'll always be a high-strikeout/low-average/low-power guy, solidly below average overall offensively -- maybe a .310 - .320 wOBA, .710 - .725 OPS on average, could peak as high as .335 wOBA with an OPS of .750 - .775 for a year or two around ages 27 - 29. Pretty similar to Inge.

Speaking of projections, at the peak of Jackson's struggles in mid-2011, I thought he'd bounce back and be decent hitter for a CFer (at the time he was below replacement level). I thought that *if* he could do the four bolded things above he could be even a plus hitter. In 2012 and 2013 he's done those things, and he's been a plus hitter.

- his K-rate has been cut by over 25%

- his LD rate has been over 22% in 2012 and 2013 so far

- his groundball BABIP bounced back in the second half of 2011 and has remained over .300 since

- his HR/FB% has been at or above 10% in 2012 and 2013

Another area for potential improvement would be power. After an eye-opening .479 SLG in 2012, he has so far dropped below 30% for FBs in 2013 after having been in the mid-30% range in 2012, and his SLG is down by 50+ points....despite his nominal (10%) HR/FB rate right now, he will have to hit more FBs to hit for plus power.

Overall, his career major-league line as of today is .282/.349/.416/.765 -- nearly identical to his minor-league line of .287/.355/.408/.763. A couple of peak seasons between now and 2016 (when he turns 29 years of age and becomes a FA) would be nominal.

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Overall, Jackson's career major-league line as of today is .282/.349/.416/.765 -- nearly identical to his minor-league line of .287/.355/.408/.763. A couple of peak seasons between now and 2016 (when he turns 29 years of age and becomes a FA) would be nominal.

Last Calendar Year (July 2012 - June 2013: 609 PAs, after his incredible 950+ OPS 1st half of 2012):

284/360/417/777

wOBA: 342

24 doubles, 6 triples, 12 HR

10% BB, 20% K

.348 BABIP

27% LD, 30% FB

10% HR/FB

Right on line with his minor and major league averages.

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Joel Sherman of the NY Post revisits the Granderson deal and declares it a big win for the Tigers and calls DD "the master of the trade." A good read.

Wily Tigers got best of Curtis Granderson trade | New York Post

Love the DD quotes. Don't worry about rankings or what others think. Prospects are still prospects. I made a similar point here about the farm system rankings. Always near bottom yet he makes the deals.

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Love the DD quotes. Don't worry about rankings or what others think. Prospects are still prospects. I made a similar point here about the farm system rankings. Always near bottom yet he makes the deals.

It's DD's version of moneyball. Teams overvalue prospects. There are half a dozen Andrew Millers for every John Smoltz and he is exploiting the market inefficiency.

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I think I was pretty consistent in not liking the trade until about 2/3rds of the way through last season when Jackson turned out to actually be good!

I think most of the reaction, at least a lot of mine, was that Granderson was just such a popular player who also happened to be good. When the team trades away your at the time favorite player for a minor leaguer at the same position as him it's pretty upsetting.

Then Granderson proceeded to hit .262 .364 .552 with 41 homers while Jackson was hitting .249 .317 .374 and it was pretty easy to still not like the trade.

But then Granderson got old and started getting hurt all of the time and Jackson turned into a pretty awesome player. Long term, it obviously is turning out to be a great trade.

Well I'm absolutely glad you didn't stop following baseball!

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Without a doubt this trade is the biggest win for the tigers.

Scherzer plus Jackson is greater than anything the Yankees or dbacks received.

It's just a shame Jackson didn't end up hitting his ceiling. Would have loved for him to add power with his defense declining.

Looking forward to the Jackson-Fister trade thread this offseason.

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It's DD's version of moneyball. Teams overvalue prospects. There are half a dozen Andrew Millers for every John Smoltz and he is exploiting the market inefficiency.

I also think it helps to not be afraid of 'losing' a trade. I'm not sure if GM's care about that or not but it's clear DD doesn't based on his Garcia comments. You can't be afraid of trading Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson because my unscientific opinion is that 2 out of 10 of those types of deals are winners for the team getting the ML player.

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Looking forward to the Jackson-Fister trade thread this offseason.

Don't forget the "Should we sign Granderson?" threads too

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Without a doubt this trade is the biggest win for the tigers.

Scherzer plus Jackson is greater than anything the Yankees or dbacks received.

It's just a shame Jackson didn't end up hitting his ceiling. Would have loved for him to add power with his defense declining.

Looking forward to the Jackson-Fister trade thread this offseason.

It can even be with the Yanks again!

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