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Magic Number countdown

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Out of curiousity, when was the last day that the magic number didn't drop? 1 week ago? How many days hasn't it dropped in the last two and a half weeks - 2 or 3 days?

The Tigers are pretty much to the point where as long as they don't completely fall apart or drop 6 or 7 games to the Twins they will take this thing, perhaps even take it going away.

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Where are the people who were posting "season's over" in mid-May?

They're in the bookstore looking for the cookbook "101 Ways to Eat Crow."

:happy:

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The Tigers are pretty much to the point where as long as they don't completely fall apart or drop 6 or 7 games to the Twins they will take this thing, perhaps even take it going away.

Another way of thinking about is is even if the Tigers only take 1 game in each of their two remaining series against the Twins (go 2-5), the Tigers still would have a 4-game edge on the Twins with only 19 other games on the schedule (26 games - 7 head-to-head), which still is a pretty big lead.

A key thing to me, it seems, is to avoid being swept by the Twins and Sox from here on out. Anything more is gravy.

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It ain't over, though. All it takes is a coincidental 5-game winning streak by the Twins and a 5-game losing streak by the Tigers to put it back to a couple games.

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It ain't over, though. All it takes is a coincidental 5-game winning streak by the Twins and a 5-game losing streak by the Tigers to put it back to a couple games.

No arguments, but that isn't a likely scenario, and it probably just as likely to go the other way as well (i.e. Tigers could just as easily go on a 5-game win streak and the Twins lose 5 in a row).

But even what you wrote were to happen, the Tigers still would have a 2 game lead at the end of the spell, and presuming both teams break their respective streaks on the 6th game, the Tigers lead would go back to 3 games, and there would be 19 games left on the schedule.

I not trying to infer the Tigers have it wrapped up, but they are in a really nice position, even accounting for the fact they must play the Twins 7 more times.

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It ain't over, though. All it takes is a coincidental 5-game winning streak by the Twins and a 5-game losing streak by the Tigers to put it back to a couple games.

Exactly. September, 2006 whudunt that long ago.

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Exactly. September, 2006 whudunt that long ago.

Point taken.

But I'd suggest the quality of the 2009 Twins isn't the same as the 2006 Twins either, so I think it is less likely for them to play around 0.750 ball in September (which is about what they need to do to likely pass the Tigers) than was the case in 2006.

Also, were the Twins 7 games back with 26 games to play in 2006? I don't recall.

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Exactly. September, 2006 whudunt that long ago.

Funny you'd mention 2006. I just checked before you made your post and at this date in 2006, the Tigers had a 4 and 4.5 game lead over Minnesota and Chicago. The big difference is the Tigers were 30 games above .500(85-55) and sitting pretty for the Wild Card. The Wild Card is not an option this year.

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Funny you'd mention 2006. I just checked before you made your post and at this date in 2006, the Tigers had a 4 and 4.5 game lead over Minnesota and Chicago. The big difference is the Tigers were 30 games above .500(85-55) and sitting pretty for the Wild Card. The Wild Card is not an option this year.

Yup, and a 7 and 8-game lead is much larger than a 4 to 4.5-game lead as well. Had the 2006 Tigers had a 7-game lead on the 2006 Twins instead of just the 4-game lead they had at this point in the season, the Tigers would have won the division in 2006.

This is all semantics anyway. All I have claimed is the Tigers are in a really nice position, and they are. I don't think that is a debatable point, really.

I didn't claim they couldn't lose the division title.

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I have a different fear now- a high quality problem I suppose- it now looks like the Tigers may clinch in Chicago, or dare I say Cleveland. A drive to Cleveland on a weekday with work would be rough!

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Oh, they're in a better-than-good position. They're in great position, but you can't get complacent. That goes for fans, too.

The Tigers can't be complacent. 100% agreed.

Fortunately, very little in the Tigers recent play suggests complacency to me. Very little in Jim Leyland's commentary suggest complacency to me.

I guess I don't understand exactly how the fans' attitude about the thing is all that relevant. Most fans aren't even at the game, half of the games are on the road, and I tend to think most players block out the fans in the stadium for the most part anyway. That's all speculation, though.

Edited by Mr. Bigglesworth

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I have a different fear now- a high quality problem I suppose- it now looks like the Tigers may clinch in Chicago, or dare I say Cleveland. A drive to Cleveland on a weekday with work would be rough!

Does anyone remember the Tom Vu infomercials from the early 90's where he promises untold riches if you go to his seminars? This comment kind of reminds me of a line from that.

At one point in the infomercial he is standing in front of about 10 luxury cars and says in broken English, 'In morning I have hard decision to make - what car do I drive?'

EDIT: From the Tom Vu page on wikipedia, I found some quotes, which have nothing to do with the discussion, but I found them so hilarious that I decided to post them:

"Are you man enough to get off your lazy American *** and go to Vu’s seminars?"

"A lot of your friends will tell you, 'Don't come to the seminar. It's a get-rich-quick plan.' Well, tell them, it is a get-rich-quick plan because life is too short to get rich slow."

IMHO, those informercials were better entertainment than most TV shows airing at the time.

Edited by Mr. Bigglesworth

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The Tigers can't be complacent. 100% agreed.

Fortunately, very little in the Tigers recent play suggests complacency to me. Very little in Jim Leyland's commentary suggest complacency to me.

I guess I don't understand exactly how the fans' attitude about the thing is all that relevant. Most fans aren't even at the game, half of the games are on the road, and I tend to think most players block out the fans in the stadium for the most part anyway. That's all speculation, though.

I meant how fans post here. I know we have zero effects on how they play. But I don't think we fans should be assuming it's clinched, because once a fan assumes that, the fall hurts more if they don't win the division. Be happy, but save the celebrations for when something is achieved.

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I meant how fans post here. I know we have zero effects on how they play. But I don't think we fans should be assuming it's clinched, because once a fan assumes that, the fall hurts more if they don't win the division. Be happy, but save the celebrations for when something is achieved.

I suppose. FWIW, I don't think I, or anyone, suggested it was clinched.

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Well, there has been some chatter that seemed to indicate it's wrapped up.

It's not wrapped up, but with a 7 game lead with 26 to play we're now at the point where the Tigers not winning would probably crack a list of top 10 collapses of all-time. Here's a list put together by Associated Content in 2006, a year before the Mets blew a 7 game lead with 3 weeks to go:

1. 1964 Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies led the St Louis Cardinals by 6 ½ games with 12 games to play.

2. 1978 Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox had a 7 ½ game lead over the New York Yankees with 32 games to play in the American League East.

3. 1969 Chicago Cubs. ... the Cubs had an 9 ½ game lead over the New York Mets on August 14 in the National League Eastern Division

4. 1995 California Angels. On August 9, the Angels had an 11 ½ game lead over the Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers in the American League West.

5. 1987 Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays had a 3 ½ game lead over the Detroit Tigers with 7 games to play in the American League East.

6. 1938 Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates lead the Chicago Cubs by 7 games on September 4.

7. 1934 New York Giants. The Giants enter September with a 7 game lead over the St Louis Cardinals.

8. 1951 Brooklyn Dodgers. The Dodgers led the Giants by 13 ½ games on August 11.

9. 1993 San Francisco Giants. In the last year before the introduction of the wild card, the Giants led the Atlanta Braves by 9 games on August 11.

10. 1942 Brooklyn Dodgers. On August 15 the Dodgers had 9 ½ game lead over the St Louis Cardinals.

Here is a list of 13 by Baseball Prospectus in 2007.

Edited by lordstanley

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Aw hell, I'm going to say how I really feel. This race is over. The Tigers have it won. Stick a fork in the Twins and White Sox.

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5. 1987 Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays had a 3 ½ game lead over the Detroit Tigers with 7 games to play in the American League East.

Exactly the reason I will always remember the 1987 season. Forget all that happened after that, it was exciting to be a Tigers' fan in September of `87.

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I know Im getting way ahead here...but just wondering...

IF the AL playoff teams are as follows:

East: NYY (best AL record)

Central: DET

West: LAA

WC: BOS

In the first round, would Detroit play New York or Los Angeles? I thought the first round was best record plays the WC, and then the other two play each other. By those methods it would be NYY vs BOS and LAA vs DET. But I also thought teams in the same division couldnt play each other in the LCS, so by those methods it would be NYY vs DET and BOS vs LAA.

So which is it?

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I'd still like to avoid the Yankees in the 1st round somehow. Either by Texas catching Boston or, much less likely, the Tigers catching the Angels. I know people will say the Tigers would have a better chance of beating the Yankees in a best of 5 than in a best of 7, but I'd like to see the Tigers "win a playoff series" this year. Get that out of the way, then play the Yankees for the American League pennant, that would be a great experience for the team and for the fans.

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I'd still like to avoid the Yankees in the 1st round somehow. Either by Texas catching Boston or, much less likely, the Tigers catching the Angels. I know people will say the Tigers would have a better chance of beating the Yankees in a best of 5 than in a best of 7, but I'd like to see the Tigers "win a playoff series" this year. Get that out of the way, then play the Yankees for the American League pennant, that would be a great experience for the team and for the fans.

I feel like our best pitchers would have a better chance to shut down the Yankees than the Angels.

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