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Magic Number countdown

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I dont' think there's an official designation but from my perspective I view it as total # of wins combined with # of losses by 2nd place team. The Magic # is something for fans to use to root their team on. It's fairly unlikely the team will win every single game the rest of the way so using the # of wins to clinch definition is silly and inpractical.

Well, no one said that the magic number was serious or practical.

My point is, scheduling which makes certain results impossible (namely, Tigers going 24-5 while the White Sox go 31-0, since they have 6 head to head) doesn't change the way the magic number is calculated. Those quirks work themselves out. If you change the magic number calculation based on the scheduling, you have the nonsense situation of the magic number actually going rising a game or two once the teams finish the head to head, if the White Sox/Indians win those head to head games. The magic number is specifically conceived to only decrease, not increase.

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Well, no one said that the magic number was serious or practical.

My point is, scheduling which makes certain results impossible (namely, Tigers going 24-5 while the White Sox go 31-0, since they have 6 head to head) doesn't change the way the magic number is calculated. Those quirks work themselves out. If you change the magic number calculation based on the scheduling, you have the nonsense situation of the magic number actually going rising a game or two once the teams finish the head to head, if the White Sox/Indians win those head to head games. The magic number is specifically conceived to only decrease, not increase.

I'd suggest the 25 combined Tiger wins and White Sox losses is more practical information than 24 wins guarantees the division. JMO.

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E#'s are kind of weird. For instance, a/o today, the Sox and Indians' E# is 25. Same is true for the Braves, who are 6.5 back. But the Braves are 8 games back in the loss column, whereas the Sox and Indians are only 4 back in the loss column, a much better position to be in.

Obviously, the tigers have the best shot of pulling out the division. They've had a great month of August (16-10) and sort of took control. They were 13-13 in July, 16-12 in June, 16-11 in May, with the only losing month in April. So I don't see them suffering a huge gag job. The Indians or the Sox are going to have to get red hot to pass them.

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E#'s are kind of weird. For instance, a/o today, the Sox and Indians' E# is 25. Same is true for the Braves, who are 6.5 back. But the Braves are 8 games back in the loss column, whereas the Sox and Indians are only 4 back in the loss column, a much better position to be in.

I think the loss column is more important when two teams well above .500 are in a race. Sure, the Sox and Indians at 4 back in the loss column so can influence their destiny a bit more than if they 6 games back in the loss column. But since they're both .500 teams who have shown over the course of 130 games that they're as likely to win a game as lose it, I don't see it as that big of an advantage,

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I think the loss column is more important when two teams well above .500 are in a race. Sure, the Sox and Indians at 4 back in the loss column so can influence their destiny a bit more than if they 6 games back in the loss column. But since they're both .500 teams who have shown over the course of 130 games that they're as likely to win a game as lose it, I don't see it as that big of an advantage,

I was discussing the same thing with a buddy about a week ago, and agree with your take.

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August 29, 2011. Magic Number 25 games. Detroit 73-61. Chicago 67-65. 5 games back. We have six more games against Chicago this season (six more against Cleveland as well).

September 3, 2009. Magic Number 25 games. Detroit 72-61. Minnesota 67-66. 5 games back. We had seven more games against Minnesota that year (excluding game 163).

Other than the fact that this year it's Chicago and in 2009 it was Minnesota, does this not look familiar?

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Other than the fact that this year it's Chicago and in 2009 it was Minnesota, does this not look familiar?

That's what makes me more confident, not less confident, that the Tigers will win the division. Remarkable things had to happen in 2009 for the Twins to even force a tie-breaker game from that position.

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I think the loss column is more important when two teams well above .500 are in a race. Sure, the Sox and Indians at 4 back in the loss column so can influence their destiny a bit more than if they 6 games back in the loss column. But since they're both .500 teams who have shown over the course of 130 games that they're as likely to win a game as lose it, I don't see it as that big of an advantage,

Hadn't thought of that but it's a good point. No one has really distinguished themselves in this weak division. I'm sure the sawks and yanks are licking their chops to face whoever emerges.

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Hadn't thought of that but it's a good point. No one has really distinguished themselves in this weak division. I'm sure the sawks and yanks are licking their chops to face whoever emerges.

Really? I bet the Yankees were licking their chops in 2006 getting to play the Tigers instead of the red hot Twins. Not sure why any team would be licking their chops to face Verlander in a short series. What pitchers does Texas have that scare you?

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Really? I bet the Yankees were licking their chops in 2006 getting to play the Tigers instead of the red hot Twins. Not sure why any team would be licking their chops to face Verlander in a short series. What pitchers does Texas have that scare you?

He's tremendous, and no doubt gives them a huge advantage in a short series. But do you really think this team is as good as the team in 06? I don't. Not even close.

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That's what makes me more confident, not less confident, that the Tigers will win the division. Remarkable things had to happen in 2009 for the Twins to even force a tie-breaker game from that position.

Nothering remarkable has to happen for the sox or indians to win the division. Teams go on streaks all the time, good and bad. Couple a sox hot streak with a tigers cold streak (both are very plausible), throw in six head-to-head matchups, and you can pretty easily come up with a scenario where the Tigers are on the outside looking in. And it wouldn't take anything remarkable to make it happen.

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He's tremendous, and no doubt gives them a huge advantage in a short series. But do you really think this team is as good as the team in 06? I don't. Not even close.

Have you looked at the Yankees rotation? It isn't exactly good. In short series it's about matchups. What you did in May is irrelevant.

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Nothering remarkable has to happen for the sox or indians to win the division. Teams go on streaks all the time, good and bad. Couple a sox hot streak with a tigers cold streak (both are very plausible), throw in six head-to-head matchups, and you can pretty easily come up with a scenario where the Tigers are on the outside looking in. And it wouldn't take anything remarkable to make it happen.

"easily come up with a scenario" is one thing. Of course we all can do that. Sox take 4 of 6 in the head to head and otherwise gain a game per week in the 4 remaining weeks. Win the division by a game. Voila. Or JV could get hit by a line drive in his next start.

I guess it's how you define remarkable. I'd say that at best Chicago is evenly-matched with the Tigers, given the Tigers upgrades in the past month or so and barring injuries, so one evenly-matched team outperforming another by at least 5 games over a 30 day period is remarkable. Not impossible, not next-to-impossible, but a bit harder than "not likely".

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Building off of the previous thought:

How likely is it the White Sox go 19-11 or better the rest of the way? I'd think it can't be more than 30% chance, and it probably is less.

How likely is it the Tigers go 12 - 16 or worse the rest of the way? 30% chance? Maybe 35% chance?

The two events aren't mutually exclusive, because they play each other 6 more times, but it is fairly close to being mutually exclusive. There probably is something like a 10% chance the Tigers lose the division outright by season's end. That would draw a remark from me.

Edited by Mr. Bigglesworth

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20% of the remaining games are head-to-head and that's close to being mutually exclusive?

I'd say so. They have 22 and 24 of their remaining games against other opponents. It would require a 5-1 or 6-0 record in those games to likely outweigh the other 20+ games they have. I think the teams are close enough that it is pretty unlikely one team wins 5 or 6 of those games.

Regardless, how likely do you think it is the White Sox finish the regular season with a record better than the Tigers? That is my main point.

Edited by Mr. Bigglesworth

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I like this thread better when it's just pictures with numbers on them that decrease in size on a daily basis.

not just people typing words

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I like this thread better when it's just pictures with numbers on them that decrease in size on a daily basis.

not just people typing words

It's like rain on your wedding day.

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Hadn't thought of that but it's a good point. No one has really distinguished themselves in this weak division. I'm sure the sawks and yanks are licking their chops to face whoever emerges.

I've seen Yankees and Sox fans who don't want to face the Tigers because of the prospect of facing Verlander twice in a short series.

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If Alanis Morrissette were to write a song called Magic Number, she'd probably say that the Tigers' magic number is 88 because that's how many games she thinks the Tigers would need to win in order to win the division.

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