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Zakk_Wylde

Magic Number countdown

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How can you have a magic number if you aren't in 1st place?

You can have an elimination number.

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Sending out playoff invoices would probably be a bigger curse, if curses existed.

I would love to see the magic number drop below 30 by September 1.

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Funny thing is, even if the Tigers get swept, they could see the number decrease by 3.

I think the Sux will sweep the Sux.

If by some miracle the Tigers can win 2 of 3------- bababooey!

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Funny thing is, even if the Tigers get swept, they could see the number decrease by 3.

I think the Sux will sweep the Sux.

If by some miracle the Tigers can win 2 of 3------- bababooey!

White Sox lose tonight, now down to 36 with the Tigers still playing and leading.

See, this is fun.

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Sending out playoff invoices would probably be a bigger curse, if curses existed.

All teams near contention send them out this early, but there are still 8 teams making it to the post-season each year. Can't be too big of a curse :)

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It's reassuring to know that if the Tigers went .500 the rest of the way, the Sox would need to win 23 of their last 37 to catch them. Even if Detroit went .400 the rest of the way, the Sox would still need to win 19 of their last 37. They would basically have to play better baseball then they've played all season in order to catch Detroit.

Barring the perfect storm of an epic Tiger collapse and the White Sox going on a serious tear, the Tigers are going to win the Central.

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I agree and I think all avenues have been exhausted to defeat the Twins curse/jinx and it's really the stuff of X-Files. The truth is out there.

How about updating that siggy already?!?

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It's reassuring to know that if the Tigers went .500 the rest of the way, the Sox would need to win 23 of their last 37 to catch them. Even if Detroit went .400 the rest of the way, the Sox would still need to win 19 of their last 37. They would basically have to play better baseball then they've played all season in order to catch Detroit.

Barring the perfect storm of an epic Tiger collapse and the White Sox going on a serious tear, the Tigers are going to win the Central.

Yet the Tigers still have to play the Sox 6 times so that is a possible 6 game swing in the standings right there.

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8/26/2009						

W L Rate W L
TIGERS 67 58 0.536 86 76 Detroit record at 0.500 for rest of season
WS 63 63 0.500 0.639 <--- Win Rate to Catch Detroit
TWINS 63 63 0.500 0.639 <--- Win Rate to Catch Detroit
ROYALS 48 77 0.384 1.027 <--- Win Rate to Catch Detroit
INDIANS 55 70 0.440 0.838 <--- Win Rate to Catch Detroit

W L Rate W L
TIGERS 67 58 0.536 89 73 Detroit record at 0.600 for rest of season
WS 63 63 0.500 0.722 <--- Win Rate to Catch Detroit
TWINS 63 63 0.500 0.722 <--- Win Rate to Catch Detroit
ROYALS 48 77 0.384 1.108 <--- Win Rate to Catch Detroit
INDIANS 55 70 0.440 0.919 <--- Win Rate to Catch Detroit

W L Rate W L
TIGERS 67 58 0.536 87 75 Detroit record at current win rate for rest of season
WS 63 63 0.500 0.667 <--- Win Rate to Catch Detroit
TWINS 63 63 0.500 0.667 <--- Win Rate to Catch Detroit
ROYALS 48 77 0.384 1.054 <--- Win Rate to Catch Detroit
INDIANS 55 70 0.440 0.865 <--- Win Rate to Catch Detroit

W L Rate W L
TIGERS 67 58 0.536 84 78 Detroit record at 0.450 for rest of season
WS 63 63 0.500 0.583 <--- Win Rate to Catch Detroit
TWINS 63 63 0.500 0.583 <--- Win Rate to Catch Detroit
ROYALS 48 77 0.384 0.973 <--- Win Rate to Catch Detroit
INDIANS 55 70 0.440 0.784 <--- Win Rate to Catch Detroit

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The magic number is actually 32 because of the head-to-head match-ups. Detroit plays Minny 7 times and the Sox 6 times and the Sox and Twins have 7 left against each other. If you play it out at the extremes, you can see what it takes, and we'll do it one way that favors the Sox and one that favors the Twins.

Let's assume that the Tigers and Twins win all of their remaining games that aren't against each other. The Tigers have 37 games left and the Twins have 36. So the Tigers get to 97 wins and the Twins get to 92 wins. If the Tigers win 1 of the 7 remaining games the teams tie at 98 wins for the season so the Tigers need to win 2 of the 7 games between the 2 clubs to clinch outright. So the magic number is the 30 wins against teams that aren't the Twins, + the 2 wins they need against the Twins, so 32.

Now let's do the same thing, but give the benefit of the doubt to the White Sox instead of the Twins. The Tigers win their remaining 31 games against non Sox opponents pushing their win total to 98. The White Sox win their remaining 30 games against opponents that aren't the Tigers to push their total to 93. If the Tigers take 1 of the 6 remaining games they end up with 99 wins and the White Sox finish with 98. So the magic number is the 31 wins against non-Sox opponents and the 1 win against the Sox for a total of 32.

Voila. 32 is the true magic number.

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Interesting. But I'm not 100% sure that that's correct. As why do we have to assume the Tigers win ALL their remaining games against non-Twins (or non-Sox in scenario 2) opponents.

Let's say the Twins go 34-2 to end up at 97 wins. The Tigers would need to go at least 31-6 to end up at 98 wins. If the Tigers went 1-6 against the Twins, that would account for 1 of the Twin losses and 6 of the 6 Tiger losses and the Tigers would clinch. So the Twins could not afford to lose one other game to anyone else along the way if the Tigers didn't lose to anyone else. But if the Tigers lost another game to anyone else, couldn't they end up in a tie?

See here: if a) Twins go 28W 1L vs. non-Tigers & 6W 1L vs. Tigers, equals 34W 2L, added to today's 63 wins to end up at 97 wins; AND b) Tigers go 29W 1L vs non-Twins & 1W 6L vs Twins, equals 30 W 7L, added to today's 67 wins to end up at 97 wins. Isn't that a scenario where a combination of 32 (30 Tiger wins plus 2 Twin losses) does not result in a clinch for the Tigers?

My math may be off, I'm just having fun here, and hey, who wouldn't like the magic number to be one lower. But I think it might still be 33.

Edited by lordstanley

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Looking at billfer's breakdown, shouldn't any Tiger win against the Twins count as 2 in the magic number category? (a Tiger win plus a Twin loss in the same game).

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The magic number is actually 32 ...

Interesting... but the magic number is still 33. wave84 says why:

Looking at billfer's breakdown, shouldn't any Tiger win against the Twins count as 2 in the magic number category? (a Tiger win plus a Twin loss in the same game).

The magic # is a combination of Tigers Wins and closest competitor's losses. If the Tigers win 17 of the next 25 and both the Twins and CWS lose 16 of their next 25... then that's it.

It's simply that... in head-to-head games, there can be 2-game swings in the Magic # if the Tigers win, or 0 game swings if the Tigers lose (or whoever is in 1st at that time... hopefully it's the Tigers...).

The Magic Number doesn't change based on remaining head-to-head games. It changes based on the results of those games.

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Either way.... it's lower than the other guys and that's all that matters. We can worry about the technicalities when it gets below 5. Hopefully in the third week of Sept.

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The Tigers' magic number to pass the win total I predicted for them in the contest thread before the season began is 2. I wasn't trying to do the Price is Right $1 bid in order to win, but I'm pretty sure my prediction of 68 was lowest in that thread by at least a few games. I just wasn't feeling good about the season going in.

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The Tigers' magic number to pass the win total I predicted for them in the contest thread before the season began is 2. I wasn't trying to do the Price is Right $1 bid in order to win, but I'm pretty sure my prediction of 68 was lowest in that thread by at least a few games. I just wasn't feeling good about the season going in.

Statik guessed 64 wins. Maroth4 took 69 wins.

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