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Tigers Acquire Aubrey Huff

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Okay...that isn't spelled out in the article...it still lumps all these hitters into one group and assumes they'll all perform equally, doesn't it?

But there are just so many variables to consider. To me, that's where it gets tricky and muddled. Sure, if you lump everyone with similar stats into a control group and crunch their numbers as a whole, the outcome certainly suggests that protection doesn't matter.

But I just don't see how this can account for so many different things: Who's the batter? Is he a good hitter who can't quite hit the curveball (Marcus)? Does the pitcher have a good curve? Who's on deck? What's the game situation? What inning? Who's in the bullpen? Who's on the other player's bench?

There are so many variables, I don't think you can say proof exists one way or another, although there's no question that the data suggests a trend.

I admit, it took me forever to figure that out. Tom Tango may know a lot about baseball, but he is a shitty writer.

Of course, there are lots of variables, and macro studies aren't going to be that comprehensive. However, the micro studies (Andre Ethier) support the marco study, which is significant.

The way I see it, if lineup protection was a real phenomenon, it would show up enough to actually make an impact on the large-scale numbers. It would make SOME impact. That fact that it makes none at all, is very telling.

Now, the reason why it is so important to figure out whether protection is real, is because teams do manage based on that concept, and it's important to know if that reasoning is faulty or not. The perfect example here is Clete Thomas. Leyland bats Thomas third because he thinks that, if he hits in front of Miggy, he will see more fastballs and hit better as a result. In my humble opinion, that's a pretty bad idea and it hasn't worked, and it's leading the Tigers to run out sub-optimal lineups every day.

To bring it full circle, I hope that Huff goes to the 3rd spot, and things improve.

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Oops. I didn't know walks didn't count toward total bases. My bad.

That's kind of dumb. Why woudln't walks be included in a stat called "total bases"?

Dusty Baker made up the stat?

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Dusty Baker made up the stat?

WINNER!

although he probably originally called it "Total Clogged Bases"

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Personally, I think Huff's acquisition is the perfect time to have a trad/saber debate, because his stats so far this year represent a pretty strong demarcation line: lots of RBI, low OPS.

he also has a lot of strikeouts and a low batting average...

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Total Bases is better than OPS, because it's a counting stat rather than rate stat, so if you didn't know how many ABs the guy had, total bases says more.

If you do know how many ABs the guy had, OPS is better because total bases doesn't count walks (unless I don't know total bases, in which case, total bases is then better again).

I'm a fan of the counting stat because durability is hugely underrated. When a guy gets hurt or can't face a certain handed pitcher that puts a strain on the team. A guy who plays everyday against every pitcher in every situation has a real value that's hard to calculate. That's why an average pitcher who racks up the innings year after year has more value than it would seem. He keeps guys in roles. The fact Inge is hurting and can't play up to par is hurting this team from more than just a performance standpoint (see Ryan Raburn). Raburn is basically out the door because Inge is hurt. Lack of durability is a strain on the team.

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To bring it full circle, I hope that Huff goes to the 3rd spot, and things improve.

I have to think that Huff or Guillen will be in that 3 spot and the one who isn't is hitting behind Cabrera.

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That could go for any percentage-based stat. Someone could have a K/BB rate of 50 percent -- one walk and one strikeout.

I think we all agree that statistics should always be taken in context.

No doubt.

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I have to think that Huff or Guillen will be in that 3 spot and the one who isn't is hitting behind Cabrera.

Knowing Leyland, what will he do? He'll probably put Avila 3rd. Who knows?

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I'm a fan of the counting stat because durability is hugely underrated. When a guy gets hurt or can't face a certain handed pitcher that puts a strain on the team. A guy who plays everyday against every pitcher in every situation has a real value that's hard to calculate. That's why an average pitcher who racks up the innings year after year has more value than it would seem. He keeps guys in roles.

You're exactly right. However, TB doesn't include walks, which is a huge deficiency.

In any case, I can't really imagine a situation where you would know someone's OPS (or RBIs for that matter), but not have any idea how much they've played.

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Knowing Leyland, what will he do? He'll probably put Avila 3rd. Who knows?

I've given up guessing on his batting orders.

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You're exactly right. However, TB doesn't include walks, which is a huge deficiency.

In any case, I can't really imagine a situation where you would know someone's OPS (or RBIs for that matter), but not have any idea how much they've played.

TB + Walks + HBP + SB - CS + Sac while knowing the RBI total and runs scored.

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Leyland should get his lefty-righty lineup that he adores now....

1. Granderson, CF (L)

2. Polanco, 2B ®

3. Huff, LF (L)

4. Cabrera, 1B ®

5. Guillen, DH (S)

6. Ordonez, RF ®

7. Inge, 3B ®

8. Laird, C ® or Avila, C (L)

9. Everett, SS ® or Santiago, SS (S)

Could swap Inge to 8th and Avila to 7th when Alex plays also.

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Leyland should get his lefty-righty lineup that he adores now....

1. Granderson, CF (L)

2. Polanco, 2B ®

3. Huff, LF (L)

4. Cabrera, 1B ®

5. Guillen, DH (S)

6. Ordonez, RF ®

7. Inge, 3B ®

8. Laird, C ® or Avila, C (L)

9. Everett, SS ® or Santiago, SS (S)

Could swap Inge to 8th and Avila to 7th when Alex plays also.

switch huff and carlos as well IMO

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Someone else suggested he hit well against AL Central teams, which appears to be the case. Clearly he isn't really the player he was last year, but he's shown the ability to perform at a high level for significant periods of time throughout his career so it is not unlikely that he could put together a good month or more. He has a track record and tends to perform better in the second half (even though that hasn't happened yet this season and its mid-August). This isn't a huge improvement, but it might be enough to help them win the division, especially if he can play well enough at 3B and/or LF to justify giving him at bats.

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I've learned over the past three years not to get legitly angry about message board discussions but this thread contains several parallels for traits, attributes, and belief systems that clearly highlight what I don't like about people in general, far beyond just baseball discussion, so it pisses me off. That there is a high-profile political debate going on at the same time that is highlighting many of these same traits everyday on the news makes me particularly sensitive to it, which may also be why I'm so angry.

That being said, I'll make my first and only meaningful contribution to the thread:

Aubrey Huff has driven in 20% of the runners that he could have driven in this season. That is more than any player on the Tigers that has a significant number of plate appearances (the three players who have better rates are Rick Porcello, Alex Avila, and Dusty Ryan).

I know little about how repeatable the RBI% statistic is generally, but Huff is at 17% for his career and has been between 18-20% in five of the last seven years.

While no Tigers player is at 20%, there are a few that are at or above 18:

19 --- Clete Thomas, Ryan Raburn, Placido Polanco

18 --- Ramon Santiago

The league average (in 2009) is 15%.

I will draw no conclusions based on what I've posted, especially since I've already marked my opinion on Huff's acquisition, but this information appears to me to be relevant to the discussion.

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I've learned over the past three years not to get legitly angry about message board discussions but this thread contains several parallels for traits, attributes, and belief systems that clearly highlight what I don't like about people in general, far beyond just baseball discussion, so it pisses me off.

This thread set me off too. I came really close to making a regrettable post yesterday but then I remembered it's just a messageboard.

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This thread set me off too. I came really close to making a regrettable post yesterday but then I remembered it's just a messageboard.

See that's your problem right there, you're too even-keeled. Your facial expression never changes, just like Tony Clark's never did - even in a situation that calls for some exaggerated emoting, the kind that Lenny Dykstra would do after a particularly large dose of roids. With more passion, you'd deliver more clutch posts.

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No...I've seen sabers on this board slobber over Larish and his OPS, which is, of course, the be-all end-all of stats. And I see them saying Huff isn't anything special, despite his 70-plus RBI -- a truly useless statistic.

You actually asked a question earlier about what stats are better than RBI in measuring repeatable skill. After posting thousands of times over many years, you have to ask this question? Give me a break.

Cutting through all of the BS, if you are saying that RBI is as valuable as OPS in measuring the repeatable skills of a player, you're simply not worth listening to.

There are sabers on this board that like to tweak your nose, but you are simply one of the most obstinate posters I've ever seen.

You argue, then make some concessions, it seems like some common ground is found, then you go right back in the next thread to the beginning of the cycle, as if the last 15,000 arguments you've engaged in never told you anything of value. Why even try?

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You actually asked a question earlier about what stats are better than RBI in measuring repeatable skill. After posting thousands of times over many years, you have to ask this question? Give me a break.

Cutting through all of the BS, if you are saying that RBI is as valuable as OPS in measuring the repeatable skills of a player, you're simply not worth listening to.

There are sabers on this board that like to tweak your nose, but you are simply one of the most obstinate posters I've ever seen.

You argue, then make some concessions, it seems like some common ground is found, then you go right back in the next thread to the beginning of the cycle, as if the last 15,000 arguments you've engaged in never told you anything of value. Why even try?

I call this doing the "Valenti". :devious:

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So in summary:

Aubrey Huff has had a bad year, just look at his OPS-like statistics.

Aubrey Huff has a had a good year, just look at his RBI.

Aubrey Huff will help the Tigers when he is used in a platoon and moves towards his career statistics.

Aubrey Huff will not help the Tigers because some of his decline parallels Ordonez.

Aubrey Huff has flexibility as a defender as he has played outfield and corner infield. He is a better replacement for Inge than Raburn.

Aubrey Huff should not play defense. Carlos Guillen should play defense.

RBI measure past performance and so they are the most important statistic to measure Huff.

OPS-like stats predict future performance better (especially when changing teams) and so they are the most important statistic to measure Huff.

RC-like stats predict future performance better (especially when changing teams) and factor in playing time and so they are the most important statistic to measure Huff.

Huff would be a good clutch hitter if clutch hitters existed.

Huff would play the roll of the cute, nerdy girl if the Tigers were a teen romantic comedy.

Huff would drive the tank that shoots at the armory if the Tigers were a World War II tank divison.

Edited by jaymo
commas

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Really some interesting posts here...I guess ill never get the people who think that a guy who has spent most of his career in the minors (so far) and has had limited success in the majors ( that is why he is in the minors ) is a better option than Huff..

He is someone who has a proven track record in the majors..He is someone the Tigers desperately need..And will be an asset to the club down the stretch..

If giving up a middle relief pitcher (project) is all we had to do to get Huff..Its a steal...

The Tigers maybe have a legitimate shot at the WS this year and next...After that, it will be a rebuild...Take your shot now, while you can..If it fails, so be it...The fact is, we are in a pennant chase and they are doing what it takes to win now....

cheers..

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Really some interesting posts here...I guess ill never get the people who think that a guy who has spent most of his career in the minors (so far) and has had limited success in the majors ( that is why he is in the minors ) is a better option than Huff..

He is someone who has a proven track record in the majors..He is someone the Tigers desperately need..And will be an asset to the club down the stretch..

If giving up a middle relief pitcher (project) is all we had to do to get Huff..Its a steal...

The Tigers maybe have a legitimate shot at the WS this year and next...After that, it will be a rebuild...Take your shot now, while you can..If it fails, so be it...The fact is, we are in a pennant chase and they are doing what it takes to win now....

cheers..

It's a rebuild every year in some form or another. You take your shot anytime you have one. Smart management knows how to rebuild on the fly.

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