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Mark The Shark

Peavy to the Sox

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they gave up their 2nd and 3rd best prospect according to baseball america (beckham being the best). So of an already depleted system they gave up two of their best ones.

Giving up Poreda at this time last year might have left the organization with nothing. But the White Sox system is still in pretty good shape.

Dan Hudson is quickly climbing the charts as the organization's best pitching prospect.

The White Sox did not touch Viciedo, Jordan Danks, or Tyler Flowers. In essence, what they need in the near future (hitting) stayed at home and they took what they needed less of (pitching) and got an ace with it. I don't see anything wrong with that.

If you're Kenny Williams, how can you not like a staff of Buehrle, Peavy, Danks, and Floyd until at least 2011?

What people also don't realize is that with Thome, Contreras, and Dotel coming off the books, the White Sox will have around $40 million to spend this off-season on free agents. Even with Peavy, the White Sox can still make a couple of decent signings with around $25 million worth of leverage.

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If what you mean by now is from now to 2011, okay.

Thome, Konerko and Dye are tremendous hitters though and I think they are starting to go over the hill and will become Magglio, Polanco and Guillen very soon.

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This move hardly helps the Sox. He'll only be available for the last 30 games...which means he may get 8 starts. So, speculating that the Sox would've probably went 4-4 in those game with a pre-Peavy starting lineup, probably at best he goes 6-2...so only a 2 game improvement or so for Chicago.

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This move hardly helps the Sox. He'll only be available for the last 30 games...which means he may get 8 starts. So, speculating that the Sox would've probably went 4-4 in those game with a pre-Peavy starting lineup, probably at best he goes 6-2...so only a 2 game improvement or so for Chicago.

The White Sox's fifth starter pitching at 500 level the rest of the way is a pretty big assumption considering the team has barely played over 500. If he improved them by two games, that would be pretty huge in a close race.

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This move hardly helps the Sox. He'll only be available for the last 30 games...which means he may get 8 starts. So, speculating that the Sox would've probably went 4-4 in those game with a pre-Peavy starting lineup, probably at best he goes 6-2...so only a 2 game improvement or so for Chicago.

I haven't looked at the schedule, but is 8 starts in 30 games plausible?

I would think with a guy coming off of an injury, 6 starts would be more likely. And I don't know how deep Peavy could go.

EDIT: For the sake of argument, I will assume Peavy throw 45 Innings for the Sox in 2009. That is a really high number for one month of pitching. I think it is an upper limit, and I think 35-40 IP is more likely.

In any event - 45 IP - the equivalent of 5 games. Supposing Peavy saves the White Sox 2 runs per 9 IP over who he replaces, he would save the team 10 runs overall, which is probably worth 1 extra win. Saving 2 runs per 9 IP is a lot. Pitching 45 innings in 1 month is a lot. I think Peavy gets the White Sox at most 1 extra win in 2009.

2010, 2011, 2012 is a different story...

Edited by Mr. Bigglesworth

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This move hardly helps the Sox. He'll only be available for the last 30 games...which means he may get 8 starts. So, speculating that the Sox would've probably went 4-4 in those game with a pre-Peavy starting lineup, probably at best he goes 6-2...so only a 2 game improvement or so for Chicago.

I think it's even stretching it to think Peavy wins two more games than they would have anyway. Even the best pitchers only equate to 3-5 extra wins per season over a league average pitcher, or less than one per month. Yet this deal actually weakens the Sox rotation until Peavy gets back. I'd say Peavy giving the Sox an extra win this year is the most they can hope for.

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The White Sox are a far, far better team than the Tigers and by the end of the season they'll probably win the division by at least 10 games.

(there, now I can't be disappointed if that should actually not happen).

This deal should not scare the Tigers. This is a big risk for the White Sox -taking an inured pitcher. It may not be his arm, but he does need to plant his foot to throw and that could be a big, BIG problem). Plus now the Tigers won't have to face Clayton Richard, which is a good thing.

Now if they could only get Luke Scott out of the Orioles lineup by next week. Anyone have Shane Stant's number?

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This deal if for next season, hopefully Peavy comes back strong and we have a solid roation of Buerhle, Peavy, Danks and Floyd all signed till at least 2011. I'd take that over most rotations, not all, but most.

White Sox Rotation Signings:

- Buehrle (signed through '11)

- Floyd (signed through '12)

- Danks (control - arbitration - through '12)

- Peavy (signed through '12; option for '13)

- 5th starter

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Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, Dexter Carter, and Adam Russell are going to Padres. I think Sox got ripped here, I really do.

I don't think so. At all. All those players are Dime a Dozen prospects. Carter, the leader in the minors in strikeouts, is the one with the highest ceiling, but otherwise all the other guys are expendable for a guy like Peavy. The Sox kept their best pitching prospect in Hudson and all their best position prospects. With Peavy signed through 2012, that gives them 3 more drafts to build up the farm with pitching prospects. Besides, with a rotation of Buehrle, Danks, Floyd, and Peavy. All they will need to do is either sign a cheap FA or put in a Carlos Torres or Dan Hudson and they will have the best rotation in the AL central for the next three years.

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This deal if for next season, hopefully Peavy comes back strong and we have a solid roation of Buerhle, Peavy, Danks and Floyd all signed till at least 2011. I'd take that over most rotations, not all, but most.

White Sox Rotation Signings:

- Buehrle (signed through '11)

- Floyd (signed through '12)

- Danks (control - arbitration - through '12)

- Peavy (signed through '12; option for '13)

- 5th starter

Yeah.

This is not good.

----------------

Now playing: Hellyeah - Matter Of Time

via FoxyTunes

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This deal if for next season, hopefully Peavy comes back strong and we have a solid roation of Buerhle, Peavy, Danks and Floyd all signed till at least 2011. I'd take that over most rotations, not all, but most.

White Sox Rotation Signings:

- Buehrle (signed through '11)

- Floyd (signed through '12)

- Danks (control - arbitration - through '12)

- Peavy (signed through '12; option for '13)

- 5th starter

Having pitchers locked up, no matter how good you think they are now, almost never turns out how you think.

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This deal if for next season, hopefully Peavy comes back strong and we have a solid roation of Buerhle, Peavy, Danks and Floyd all signed till at least 2011. I'd take that over most rotations, not all, but most.

White Sox Rotation Signings:

- Buehrle (signed through '11)

- Floyd (signed through '12)

- Danks (control - arbitration - through '12)

- Peavy (signed through '12; option for '13)

- 5th starter

Don't get too excited. We had Verlander, Bonderman, Willis and Robertson all signed through 2010 which looked really good at first and then blew up in our faces. By 2011 that rotation might not look as good, especially with Peavy making $16 million and Buehrle making $14 million.

It's so hard to predict what a pitcher is going to do for the rest of this season, much less three years from now. I like the approach DD is taking by acquiring so many young arms who can fill in for injured or ineffective pitchers.

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A little late to the conversation, but I'll throw in my 2 cents. I think this deal helps the Sox more in the coming years than this year. Even if Peavy is ready by mid-late August he'll probably only get about 10 starts, and there will certainly be an adjustment pitching in that band box in Chicago.

Peavy seems like a nice guy. I feel bad for him.

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One more thing about the CWS:

I'm impressed with Kenny Williams.

If he needs to find replacement guys for Thome and Dye and AJ and Pods, etc... My guess is he'll find a way to do it. I like Tyler Flowers, not certain about their other minor leaguers...

But he's kept their team competitive for the past several years... and I anticipate him being able to manage the transition when their older guys need to be replaced by Flowers, FA's, trades, or whatever...

Peavy-Buehrle-Danks-Floyd... that's a tough rotation for the next few years, at least!!!

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Thome, Konerko and Dye are tremendous hitters though and I think they are starting to go over the hill and will become Magglio, Polanco and Guillen very soon.

The sox suck, let's get that out of the way. However, the White Sux will be better in 2010. Thome is not that good of a hitter. He hits about .250. They'll be able to move Konerko or Dye or Quentin into the DH role next year. Gordon Beckham will play an entire season with the club. They'll have Peavy and Buehrle for a whole season. I'm not worried about the sox this year but they'll be better in 2010 when Thome comes off the books. He'll be 40 next year...you really can't talk him up anymore.

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Is this serious?

Just wishful.

Bottom line, the Sox are in a catch 22: with their starting pitching, even if they did make the playoffs this year they were looking at one and done like last season. Just making the playoffs might be enough for some, not for Williams.

Peavy is expected to make a minor league start in mid-August and be in the rotation by the end of the month. He's already throwing off a mound. If the Sox somehow stay within striking distance (which I doubt they will given their brutal schedule and the addition of Washburn), then they have an outside chance of Peavy helping them this season. That's the gamble. But this is as much about the future as it is now.

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Interesting take on the deal over at THT: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/applying-the-guttridge-wang-trade-model-to-this-years-deadline-trades/

Highlights:

Jake Peavy from San Diego to the White Sox for Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, Adam Russell and Dexter Carter

Ladies and gentlemen, behold possibly the worst deadline deal in recent memory.

Jake Peavy may or may not pitch again this year. Over the last year and a half, he's been on the shelf for roughly one-third of the time. And, he's locked into a deal that pays him more than he would receive on the open market today.

...

Just for the sake of argument, here's how Peavy looks if he essentially returns to '06-'07 form and stays there:

It's still a terrible deal.

...

So, unless Peavy continues to blow himself up with injuries, Kenny Williams is going to get praised for this move, whether in October, next July, 2011, or all of the above. But the people doing the praising will not be taking an adequate measure of the pros and cons of the choice he made at the time, which was abominable.

If you saw a guy leaving a poker table with $50,000, you'd think he played like a master. But you weren't there to see that he sat down with $500,000. Kenny Williams is that guy.

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