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I dont get the Wisconsin love

they are 4-10 against top 50 rpi, 1 win against top 30 rpi teams.

FSU was 5-6 against the top 50 with 3 top 30 wins and 5 of their 9 losses were to top 3 rpi teams

I like FSU, and I don't think it's going to be particularly close.

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I like FSU, and I don't think it's going to be particularly close.

it will probably be relatively close considering FSU doesnt really blow out many teams. I think FSU wins but they could lose because you never know what happens in the tourny, I just dont understand how someone could say its not an upset if they lost.

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it will probably be relatively close considering FSU doesnt really blow out many teams. I think FSU wins but they could lose because you never know what happens in the tourny, I just dont understand how someone could say its not an upset if they lost.

It'd be an upset, but a marginal one. Number one, there's a pretty reasonable chance that UW wasn't a 12. Number two, most of the handicappers set that game at 2.5, and it hasn't moved much off of that. Contrary to popular message board opinion, lines are set to reflect the "attributes" of the teams involved in an attempt to marginalize the advantage one has over another - and balance the money involved on both sides. FSU was a slightly better than nominal favorite over the Badgers. Should be one of the better opening round games, and the winner will have a reasonable shot at playing into the second week.

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I've got a 11,12,13,14 all winning at least one game and one of them winning two.

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I have Michigan beating American in the final four, as you can't pick against America or Michigan, and Michigan trumps America as Michigan doesn't contain Ohio.

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http://kenpom.com/rate.php

 30 Wisconsin                 B10  19-12 .8967   114.1/24   94.5/60     20.2/170 -.067/312  .7540/27  106.2/43   96.3/10    .6166/79 [/B]

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE NON-CONF SOS
Rnk Team Conf W-L Pyth AdjO/Rnk AdjD/Rnk Cons/Rnk Luck/Rnk Pyth/Rnk OppO/Rnk OppD/Rnk Pyth/Rnk
31 Washington St. P10 17-15 .8925 104.8/112 87.2/6 27.2/338 -.075/317 .7649/21 108.7/3 98.1/57 .5505/139
32 Tennessee SEC 21-12 .8916 114.9/17 95.7/71 20.0/164 -.024/226 .7705/16 106.9/25 96.2/9 .7666/12
33 Oklahoma St. B12 22-11 .8916 115.2/16 95.9/73 22.3/258 -.010/182 .7330/39 106.6/31 97.6/43 .5743/118
34 San Diego St. MWC 23-9 .8914 109.9/58 91.5/26 22.5/262 +.010/125 .6918/55 104.7/69 97.6/40 .6259/69
[B] 35 Florida St. ACC 25-9 .8849 106.1/95 88.9/12 14.0/4 +.074/20 .7715/15 108.2/6 97.4/35 .6291/66 [/B]

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I dont get your manlove for pomeroy?

Pomeroy has FSU ranked roughly 20 spots below their rpi and their national rankings and has Wisconsin a good 10+ spots ahead of where they are in rpi. It seems way out of the ordinary compared to other rankings.

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realtimerpi.com

Up 1 From Last Week 15 Florida St. 25-9 0.6201 17 0.5823 Acc 12-7
Down 7 From Last Week 45 Wisconsin 18-12 0.5840 16 0.5829 Big10 10-9

and

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/rankings

16. Florida State 25-9 667

and

16. Florida State 25-9 293

now i know i can avoid pomeroys site when looking up info......

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realtimerpi.com

and

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/rankings

and

now i know i can avoid pomeroys site when looking up info......

Now I'm not convinced that kenpom is God, but you can summarily dismiss it completely, just by looking at RPI and polls? I'd need a bit more evidence, myself...

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Now I'm not convinced that kenpom is God, but you can summarily dismiss it completely, just by looking at RPI and polls? I'd need a bit more evidence, myself...

what does kepnom see that ranks them 20 spots below any other rating, seems like an outlier to me

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Outside of 14, 15, and 16 seeds winning, are there any upsets in such a weak field like this? An example of how weak the field is, Illinois is a 5-seed and scored 33 points in a game earlier this season.

I have three 10's winning (Texas is the only 7-seed spared), two 11's winning (VCU and Dayton), and one 12 winning (WKU). I consider the VCU and Dayton predictions the biggest upsets.

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UCLA sucks but I can't pick against their experience. Shipp, Aboya, and Collison have been to 3 straight Final Fours. They aren't going back this year but I can't see them getting bounced in the first round to VCU.

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Arizona might beat Utah.

Wisconsin might beat Florida State.

Western Kentucky has a decent shot against Illinois if Frazier is out.

Dayton might be able to handle West Virginia.

I like Utah State over Marquette for some reason.

Radford is going to KILL North Carolina!

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I dont get your manlove for pomeroy?

Pomeroy has FSU ranked roughly 20 spots below their rpi and their national rankings and has Wisconsin a good 10+ spots ahead of where they are in rpi. It seems way out of the ordinary compared to other rankings.

This...

Kenpom > RPI in predicting outcomes of games.

To explain the rankings, Wisconsin's losses were by 19, 3, 5, 13, 4 (OT), 4 (OT), 8, 1, 3, 11, 5, and 4. In short, they've had some bad luck this year. While Florida State does have those nice wins, they have had closer victories and larger margins of loss. Also, Wisconsin has had bad luck with opponents at the free throw line, having one of the worst FT% against, something they have no control over. RPI and Kenpom have different goals and measure different things.

I'd be willing to wager some message board pride that if you took the higher Pomeroy ranked team in each NCAA game, your bracket would be more accurate than the higher RPI team.

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This...

To explain the rankings, Wisconsin's losses were by 19, 3, 5, 13, 4 (OT), 4 (OT), 8, 1, 3, 11, 5, and 4. In short, they've had some bad luck this year. While Florida State does have those nice wins, they have had closer victories and larger margins of loss. Also, Wisconsin has had bad luck with opponents at the free throw line, having one of the worst FT% against, something they have no control over. RPI and Kenpom have different goals and measure different things.

I'd be willing to wager some message board pride that if you took the higher Pomeroy ranked team in each NCAA game, your bracket would be more accurate than the higher RPI team.

FSU losses have been by 3, 5, 23(only real bad loss), 3, 6, 8, 10 and 14. Average loss is by 9. Wisconsin is roughly by 7. FSU losses were to tougher teams(5 of them were to top 3 rpi teams) and had less losses so i dont know how that puts fsu down 20 spots and moves wisconsin up 10 some spots. I honestly dont know how any ranking could have Wisconsin ahead of FSU. Pomroy might be an ok rating but having FSU below Wisconsin is a joke.

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Id also like to point out that going into acc play kenpom had FSU going 4-12 in the acc and even after a 2-1 acc start he still had them at 4-12. after they were 6-3 in the acc he had them finishing 7-9 in acc i believe. he has picked them to lose all year.

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Id also like to point out that going into acc play kenpom had FSU going 4-12 in the acc and even after a 2-1 acc start he still had them at 4-12. after they were 6-3 in the acc he had them finishing 7-9 in acc i believe. he has picked them to lose all year.

Small sample at that point... They had MSU going 2-16 in Big Ten play... I'd wait til late January to start putting stock into those rankings.

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Small sample at that point... They had MSU going 2-16 in Big Ten play... I'd wait til late January to start putting stock into those rankings.

it was feb. 10 when they were 6-3 in acc and he had them finishing 1-6 in acc.

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Differences between Pom and RPI:

Net Score

KP: 9 pts, possible 33

RPI: 7 pts, possible 31

Midwest

KP: 0 pts, possible 0

RPI: 3 pts, possible 7

Second round:

KP: OSU

RPI: Siena

Sweet 16:

KP: Wake Forest, West Virginia

RPI: Utah, Kansas

Elite 8:

KP: West Virginia

RPI: Michigan State

East

KP: 3, possible 11

RPI: 2, possible 2

Second Round:

KP: Wisconsin

RPI: Florida State

Sweet 16:

KP: Xavier, UCLA

RPI: Florida State, Villanova

Final Four:

KP: Pittsburgh

RPI: Duke

South

KP: 3, possible 3

RPI: 2, possible 6

Second Round:

KP: Arizona State

RPI: Temple

Sweet 16:

KP: Gonzaga, Arizona State

RPI: Illinois, Syracuse

Elite Eight:

KP: Arizona State

RPI: Oklahoma

West

KP: 3, possible 3

RPI: 0, possible 0

Second Round:

KP: Marquette

RPI: Utah State

Sweet 16:

KP: Purdue

RPI: Washington

Final Four

KP: 0, possible 16

RPI: 0, possible 16

Finals:

KP: Memphis, North Carolina

RPI: Louisville, Duke

Champion:

KP: Memphis

RPI: Duke

We'll see which does better...

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im not saying pomeroy is no good, im just saying they have vastly under-rated FSU all year and have been wrong about them a ton. I dont think RPI is the end all be all, but you cant honestly sit here and tell me Wisconsin deserves to be ahead of FSU in any ranking this year, can you?

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http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/ncaatourney09/news/story?id=3991183

Obama's bracket will be posted tomorrow

from the photo it looks like he has VCU over UCLA as his biggest upset that is visible. It looks like he has Temple over ASU too. Second round only upset I see is 5 FSU over 4 Xavier

also

"A few selections were revealed on Tuesday. Initially an underdog for the nation's highest office, the president went with favorites in his Final Four picks. No. 1 seeds Louisville, North Carolina and Pittsburgh will join No. 2 Memphis in Detroit April 4-6 if the president is correct."

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Obama's bracket will be posted tomorrow

<soapbox> It's time the President stopped concerning himself with menial tasks such as health care and his NCAA brackets and started taking a hard look at the economy. </soapbox>

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im not saying pomeroy is no good, im just saying they have vastly under-rated FSU all year and have been wrong about them a ton. I dont think RPI is the end all be all, but you cant honestly sit here and tell me Wisconsin deserves to be ahead of FSU in any ranking this year, can you?

No, but that's not what Pomeroy measures. It's a predictive rankings, so it takes components of past performance that indicate future success... not evaluating teams based purely on wins and losses.

All this said, FSU got screwed in the seeding. This was the only spot in the bracket from USC's 10 seed through the 11's and 12 seeds that Wisconsin could go because of all of the B10 teams in the bracket.

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No, but that's not what Pomeroy measures. It's a predictive rankings, so it takes components of past performance that indicate future success... not evaluating teams based purely on wins and losses.

All this said, FSU got screwed in the seeding. This was the only spot in the bracket from USC's 10 seed through the 11's and 12 seeds that Wisconsin could go because of all of the B10 teams in the bracket.

I respect that, but it seems too heavily valued on margin of victory imo. FSU plays everyone close, wins and losses. They are 11-3 in games decided by 5 or less and their defense keeps them in every game. Only time they were blown out was against Wake when Alabi was ejected. Their close wins early in the season while breaking in 5 freshman in which 4 played a lot and was before JC transfer guard Derwin Kitchen was cleared to play, who is now a starter.

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