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Edman85

Where did Henning Get this?

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I never asked him to attribute opinion. I asked him to attribute fact. And not just any fact. Fact that wasn't made available until a single person compiled it.

What is the fact?

Until Ed's list came out there was no such thing as a "likely Type A Free Agent"? Everybody just sat around and didn't give any thought?

Ed's analysis doesn't make it any more of a fact than throwing darts at a dartboard. It's still an opinion. It's only a fact once Elias makes their list known.

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When does Elias' list come out so Ed can check to see how his formula worked?

Also, did Ed ever email Henning to see what the deal was?

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You also have to remember Henning probably has a better grasp on the talent of these players than maybe a few of us do.

Henning thinks Hayden Parrott is a catcher:

http://detroitnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081028/SPORTS0104/810280339/1129#

A number of minor leaguers, some well-regarded at one time, have been released, among them: pitchers Danny Zell, P.J. Finigan, Angel Castro, Derek Witt, and Kelvin Cedano; outfielders Cory Middleton and Justin Justice; and catcher Hayden Parrott.

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P.S. I saw you didn't cite where you got those Tigers averages in your blog. :classic:

.

I got them from Lynn Henning. :happy:

I actually got them from Fan Graphs which I did cite in the article. Seriously though, I don't always give citations for statistics like batting average which you can find in hundreds of different places. I always try to cite new statistics or statistics that are not in the mainstream.

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When does Elias' list come out so Ed can check to see how his formula worked?

Also, did Ed ever email Henning to see what the deal was?

After the World Series

No

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So Lynn Henning is supposed to compare his opinions or writings to an algorithm? That makes me less convinced he's supposed to source him. Maybe Lynn has his own algorithm. We're only allowed to have one out there?

Let's pretend for a moment that we don't know Edman and don't know of the existence of his algorithm. Now, Henning says in his article that the Elias rankings have not been released yet. Then he goes on to say this guy is probably Type A and that guy is probably not Type B. If he is just guessing, he should say he is making an educated guess and he only has to say it once.

I am not concerned about Edman getting credit forever. Henry Chadwick does not still get credit for inventing batting average. I don't like the wording Henning used.

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So Lynn Henning is supposed to compare his opinions or writings to an algorithm? That makes me less convinced he's supposed to source him. Maybe Lynn has his own algorithm. We're only allowed to have one out there?

I'm having images of TSE running through my head .....

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What is the fact?

Until Ed's list came out there was no such thing as a "likely Type A Free Agent"? Everybody just sat around and didn't give any thought?

Sure people speculated, but a case like Varitek probably would have been treated as the Red Sox would receive compensation because he'd be a Type A or Type B free agent. Or in clear cut cases, like if Joe Mauer were to be a free agent there would be little dispute that he's an A, just like there is little dispute that Fossum would get you nothing and Glover isn't even a free agent.

Ed's analysis doesn't make it any more of a fact than throwing darts at a dartboard. It's still an opinion. It's only a fact once Elias makes their list known.

Ed's analysis means you don't have to throw darts at the dart board. He was able to replicate last year's results and there is only ambiguity in a couple of fringe areas. It has turned what was largely speculation into something that looks to be pretty reliable and in my mind it is quite a bit more than opinion. Coupled with the fact that Morosi has written about it, it should be on Henning's radar.

It's possible that Henning did this without using Ed's work at all, and if he didn't look at Ed's work to prep this then of course it doesn't deserve an attribution.

But if he did look at Ed's stuff, and especially since he came to the exact same conclusions, it should be acknowledged.

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Call him ignorant if you want. People can base opinions on different sources of information. Believe it of not, Ed isn't the only one that can base an opinion in this info. Maybe he's the best. Maybe he's clearly the best. But people can create their own opinions if they want. And it doesn't make it wrong.

Like I said I did the same thing for the MHSAA playoffs. I had a good gauge where a few teams were going to be paired with and I knew there were sites out there that were supposedly pretty accurate. It's still their opinion over mine. And guess what, the few projections I made (a week early by the way) came out pretty accurate. I thought Fenton had a good chance of playing Davison and Linden had a good chance of playing West - providing something didn't happen that put those two in the same division.

I couldn't write this without finding another source or making my own opinion based on what I know? Now you are just not making sense.

This particular projection was a lot more than putting teams into a bracket.

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Let's pretend for a moment that we don't know Edman and don't know of the existence of his algorithm. Now, Henning says in his article that the Elias rankings have not been released yet. Then he goes on to say this guy is probably Type A and that guy is probably not Type B. If he is just guessing, he should say he is making an educated guess and he only has to say it once.

I am not concerned about Edman getting credit forever. Henry Chadwick does not still get credit for inventing batting average. I don't like the wording Henning used.

This is my view as well, and the bolded portions are what I agree with most.

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DTroppens has been a voice of reason in this thread. If you're going to publicly accuse someone of stealing, you should be able to offer proof. That's a pretty serious accusation.

Why not just email the man and ask him?

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Let's pretend for a moment that we don't know Edman and don't know of the existence of his algorithm. Now, Henning says in his article that the Elias rankings have not been released yet. Then he goes on to say this guy is probably Type A and that guy is probably not Type B. If he is just guessing, he should say he is making an educated guess and he only has to say it once.

The word "probably" denotes that it is a guess.

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I never asked him to attribute opinion. I asked him to attribute fact. And not just any fact. Fact that wasn't made available until a single person compiled it.

You absolutely did. You wanted him to attribute his opinion to a list HE HAD to take from Edman. He couldn't have his own opinion.

This is simply silly. If the roles were reversed by ANYONE here they would be crying foul the opposite way. I think a lot of people realize that here and won't admit it by creating other issues that simply aren't there. The only issue here involves someone being accused of doing something NO ONE can even come close to proving.

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This particular projection was a lot more than putting teams into a bracket.

Why? Because it was yours?

What makes your work more important than my projections? It's because you've put hard work into it and it's your passion. But, just because you did this doesn't mean everyone that has an opinion on Type A, B or C free agents has to be judging their opinion on your work (no matter how accurate it's been in previous years). To think so is silly. To think so is pretty arrogant. And to suggest (without proof) that someone has stolen your work is pretty irresponsible.

Why didn't you just email him.

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You absolutely did. You wanted him to attribute his opinion to a list HE HAD to take from Edman. He couldn't have his own opinion.

This is simply silly. If the roles were reversed by ANYONE here they would be crying foul the opposite way. I think a lot of people realize that here and won't admit it by creating other issues that simply aren't there. The only issue here involves someone being accused of doing something NO ONE can even come close to proving.

So either he got the data from a source other than himself or made it up and passed it as fact. Frankly, I'm not sure which is worse.

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Why? Because it was yours?

What makes your work more important than my projections? It's because you've put hard work into it and it's your passion. But, just because you did this doesn't mean everyone that has an opinion on Type A, B or C free agents has to be judging their opinion on your work (no matter how accurate it's been in previous years). To think so is silly. To think so is pretty arrogant. And to suggest (without proof) that someone has stolen your work is pretty irresponsible.

Why didn't you just email him.

Because people have been trying to figure out this formula for years. Have you read the linked stuff on mlbtr?

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Not in my world.

When reading a paper for the average individual you may have to use the definitions used by the average individual. And how you can call his work not an opinion I'm lost. And now we're judging a man based on if he was a Baseball Prospectus writer - not judging the man that actually accused him of taking his work.

People have changed the premise of this thread long enough. A man wrote something. Another man automatically accused him of stealing his work without any evidence whatsoever. And now it's Henning that has to prove how much he knows about baseball, if something is an opinion, what Edman's blog actually represents and all sorts of other stuff. None of this crap matters yet I've pacified people all day with responses to these issues that don't even matter. Maybe we should get to what is at the core of the thread. PROVE he stole it. If you can't then this should end right now. If you are going to attack him with the allegations then do so by contacting him. If you don't like his response then do what you want. If he doesn't respond, email him again and tell him what the reprecussions of his actions may be if he doesn't respond the second time. Then after that make a decision.

What this comes down to is one person doing a lot of great work. I don't question that one bit. But now he thinks no one can have an opinion of their own on the subject because of his work. All opinions must be based on his work. And because this is how he feels he has made a post and a blog "ratting the guy out." Yet he has no proof beyond what he feels in his heart. And he hasn't tried to get any of that proof. He didn't email the guy (although the guy has a history of responding to emails) before creating the allegations. And even if he did now, the path taken doesn't justify the means. In short, he's shown his lack of professionalism. And yet many great posters here are supporting these actions despite there being no proof?!?

How can you see it any other way. I think a few of our most respected posters made some of their silliest posts they've ever made on this forum today. That's my opinion.

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Because people have been trying to figure out this formula for years. Have you read the linked stuff on mlbtr?

No I haven't but so what? The guy still can't have his own opinion? It has to be based on what you think? That's crazy. And AGAIN, if you think it's based on your thoughts, why didn't you email him FIRST before accusing him. Maybe you are right. But for the third time I'll say this - the way you went at this will never justify the results. You come off like a third-grader upset someone stole your milk money. And maybe someone did. I don't know. But there were more mature and professional ways to deal with this. And I know you know that too. You didn't do them. In fact, I don't know if you have emailed him yet. But at 10:51 p.m. today (I'm guessing about 12 hours after this post started) you are still accusing with inadequate evidence.

I know if the roles were reversed you'd be jumping up and down claiming foul.

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When reading a paper for the average individual you may have to use the definitions used by the average individual. And how you can call his work not an opinion I'm lost. And now we're judging a man based on if he was a Baseball Prospectus writer - not judging the man that actually accused him of taking his work.

People have changed the premise of this thread long enough. A man wrote something. Another man automatically accused him of stealing his work without any evidence whatsoever. And now it's Henning that has to prove how much he knows about baseball, if something is an opinion, what Edman's blog actually represents and all sorts of other stuff. None of this crap matters yet I've pacified people all day with responses to these issues that don't even matter. Maybe we should get to what is at the core of the thread. PROVE he stole it. If you can't then this should end right now. If you are going to attack him with the allegations then do so by contacting him. If you don't like his response then do what you want. If he doesn't respond, email him again and tell him what the reprecussions of his actions may be if he doesn't respond the second time. Then after that make a decision.

What this comes down to is one person doing a lot of great work. I don't question that one bit. But now he thinks no one can have an opinion of their own on the subject because of his work. All opinions must be based on his work. And because this is how he feels he has made a post and a blog "ratting the guy out." Yet he has no proof beyond what he feels in his heart. And he hasn't tried to get any of that proof. He didn't email the guy (although the guy has a history of responding to emails) before creating the allegations. And even if he did now, the path taken doesn't justify the means. In short, he's shown his lack of professionalism. And yet many great posters here are supporting these actions despite there being no proof?!?

How can you see it any other way. I think a few of our most respected posters made some of their silliest posts they've ever made on this forum today. That's my opinion.

I've already backed off of the stealing thing. I tried to change the name of the thread shortly thereafter, but it wasn't possible. I never meant to accuse in that regard, just got caught up in some of the rage right after reading the story. Considering nobody in memory has been able to accurately estimate Free Agent Types in the media, I think it's pretty clear that had to come from somewhere, and there is nobody else that has done this work... anywhere, not even some of the most dedicated sabermetric sites.

I'm beginning to think that a) You don't understand what the Elias Rankings are used for b) How complex and secret the formula is and c) The amount of work that went into working back and releasing these Rankings. This isn't like spending a half hour figuring out tiebreakers and NFL playoff scenarios, for example.

I'm not upset that they were used. I do realize that they were posted for free. I'm upset that they were presented as facts without even hinting that he got it from somewhere else, because frankly, he did. If you understood the context of what was going on, you would understand that is proof enough.

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So either he got the data from a source other than himself or made it up and passed it as fact. Frankly, I'm not sure which is worse.

So now he's guilty no matter what he did. And I'm guessing you haven't emailed him yet. Email him. You have had no issues arguing it with me. Email the guy.

If I were you I know what I would do.

I would tell him your issue, and my issues with it. But at the same time I'd admit that I made some rather hasty decisions before the email by linking the blog and linking this thread (with the actual title that many saw above it earlier today). Be honest with him and there's a good chance he'll be honest with you. And once he's emailed you back his response, then you can move forward.

The way you went at this was simply wrong and it hurts your case. I think you realize that more than you are letting on.

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Dave, why would Henning need to develop his own opinion about free agent status when he knows full well that Morosi wrote an article about Edman's method a couple of weeks ago? Do you really think he spent three hours on baseball-reference making a guess when the info is already right there for him? And if for some reason he didn't know about Edman's data and really did just give his own opinion, then shame on him for not knowing about something that Morosi recently featured.

I will agree that Edman should have asked him about it privately first and maybe we could have avoided this whole discussion. Beyond that though, your story doesn't sound right.

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