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Edman85

Where did Henning Get this?

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No. The sentences that appear on Ed's blog are there because Ed was quoting Henning's article.

That being said, if Henning used Ed's info, he should have said something.

Oh, I see, I misunderstood how Edmans blog was written. I thought Ed bolded the words he wrote and that appeared in Lynns column.

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I was writing that previous post over the course of about a half-hour. I see the conversation is a bit more detailed.

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Oh, I see, I misunderstood how Edmans blog was written. I thought Ed bolded the words he wrote and that appeared in Lynns column.

That's what I thought, as well, Rhino. I can't access Edmans blog from work (blogspot.com is blocked at work); and thought the bolded parts were the parts in question.

Apologies to those I may have confused.

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Does that mean that Ed ripped off Elias? Serious question.

He figured out Elias, which many others have failed to do.

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The real question is, are any of those guys even borderline? Or could their status just be an educated guess?

This was my primary question.

There are plenty of times I can make educated guesses on things without any statistical background or anything like that at all, just based on "regular knowlege." It's not the best way to do things, but we all do it upon occasion - especially when we are just "chewing the fat." Heck, I was doing that this weekend with the state playoffs. And I was able to make a reasonable guess (one of two scenarios) without looking at anything. I figured if Fenton and Linden weren't in the same division, that West would be with Linden and that Fenton could face Davison. I figured Hartland's win on week nine probably gave them a home playoff game - I just had no clue who against. I did all of that with very little research. And I could've wrote a column saying those things. But someone could've had a blog or the MHSAA could've said I used their site to get that information. Now, I did look at the MHSAA site after week eight and looked at the enrollments of the teams that had five wins at that time, and that helped me make some of those guesses. But I hardly would say that I pounded that site to make great conclusions. I know there are people that do put sites with those playoff projections out there. If I wrote that column, they may have complained I needed to give credit to them as well.

I think this is a touchy subject and if you are going to throw stones, you better have everything lined up before doing so. Even fishy isn't enough. You probably should be 100 percent certain. Edman is a great poster on this board. People are bound to side with him. Heck, I have a sense to do just that. But there are way too many scenarios in my life where I can think of people making thoughts like this (like mine above) that someone would swear they took it from me or something I know without realizing there are 1,000s out there capable of coming to the same conclusions without doing half that work through general sense or other sources - or their own sources.

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Edman,

I haven't followed any "history" between you or Lynn Henning so maybe I have issues there that you can fill me in with.

It seems to me that a list like this may be available in various places. I'm sure you are not the only one that put time into something like this. He probably saw your site, but couldn't have there been various sources that may have had projections like you have? I would have to think there would be others out there? Maybe I'm wrong. I don't know. Maybe he did some work himself as well. Maybe not as extensive as your list there, but couldn't have those guesses been made without even extensive work? Without understanding how you derived at your numbers it seems two of the three people you mentioned probably could've been "guessed" at the type of free agent they are listed at.

If he used various sources, he could've said something even as generic as "based on various sources"... but it's hard to say he wouldn't have access to something like your list through a variety of people and that he had to have used your list exclusively to create his thoughts. And, again, they are just thoughts.

I'm not questioning you in a derogatory manner here. Just wondering how you know it "HAD TO BE" from your site. Or even if he saw your site that this information wasn't able to be derived by other sources or even just by educated guesses without doing any great math.

I hope you don't take this the wrong way. Just wanting to know more of the background. I agree, he certainly could've reached those conclusions from your site. I can clearly see where that is obvious.

Nobody else has posted public projections of the Elias Rankings.

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Edman,

I haven't followed any "history" between you or Lynn Henning so maybe I have issues there that you can fill me in with.

It seems to me that a list like this may be available in various places. I'm sure you are not the only one that put time into something like this.

Various places such as where? It's possible that Henning has access to someone who did this privately but cracking the code is not a simple procedure so I would guess not. It's also possible that Henning made educated guesses but some of the guys were kind of borderline so I doubt it. There is no proof that Henning got the info from Edman but I would bet that he did.

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1,000s out there capable of coming to the same conclusions without doing half that work through general sense or other sources - or their own sources.

Google "Elias Rankings" and see if anybody else has cracked it and posted it. Based on educated guesses, there is no way he would have gotten Furcal and Varitek correct.

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Edman,

I haven't followed any "history" between you or Lynn Henning so maybe I have issues there that you can fill me in with.

It seems to me that a list like this may be available in various places. I'm sure you are not the only one that put time into something like this. He probably saw your site, but couldn't have there been various sources that may have had projections like you have? I would have to think there would be others out there? Maybe I'm wrong. I don't know. Maybe he did some work himself as well. Maybe not as extensive as your list there, but couldn't have those guesses been made without even extensive work? Without understanding how you derived at your numbers it seems two of the three people you mentioned probably could've been "guessed" at the type of free agent they are listed at.

If he used various sources, he could've said something even as generic as "based on various sources"... but it's hard to say he wouldn't have access to something like your list through a variety of people and that he had to have used your list exclusively to create his thoughts. And, again, they are just thoughts.

I'm not questioning you in a derogatory manner here. Just wondering how you know it "HAD TO BE" from your site. Or even if he saw your site that this information wasn't able to be derived by other sources or even just by educated guesses without doing any great math.

I hope you don't take this the wrong way. Just wanting to know more of the background. I agree, he certainly could've reached those conclusions from your site. I can clearly see where that is obvious.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/elias_type_atype_b_free_agents/index.html

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Google "Elias Rankings" and see if anybody else has cracked it and posted it. Based on educated guesses, there is no way he would have gotten Furcal and Varitek correct.

What makes those two players so hard to project based on their stats over the last two seasons?

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He figured out Elias, which many others have failed to do.

Yes I understand that. But would Elias be justified in feeling ripped of by Ed's cracking of their formula? It seems as though they could be justified. Is the Elias info paid for, or is it free to access?

Again these are serious questions, and not meant to accuse anything of Ed or demean what he's done.

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I also wonder if you contacted him Edman and gave him a chance to respond.

If you did then I can understand your blog.

If not, I think your response lacks professionalism as well. Maybe he lacked professionalism for not citing your blog? I don't know. Maybe you lacked professionalism for not getting his side of the story?

If a blog wants to have the respect the owner of it wants it to have, I think you need to account yourself to high standards if you are willing to attack others for their lack of standards. Maybe you did this. I don't know. But if you didn't, I think you maybe as guilty of some poor choices as anyone.

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What makes those two players so hard to project based on their stats over the last two seasons?

Those are two that people have expressed surprise in when I have checked on reaction to the projections.

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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/07/elias-sports-bu.html

Elias Sports Bureau Rankings: Cracking The Code

By Tim Dierkes [July 24, 2008 at 9:33am CST]

Eddie Bajek, who runs the blog Detroit Tigers Thoughts, has come tantalizingly close to cracking the code behind the Elias Sports Bureau ranking system. Every year, Elias puts every player into one of five groups and ranks them based on various stats. Players are classified as Type A, Type B, or nothing, and this determines free agent compensation.

Eddie has been working to reverse-engineer the formula based on the information we have. His last hurdle is the adjustment for time spent on the disabled list. Apparently stats can be restored for up to 60 days of missed playing time, according to Keith Law.

If you are able to provide info on the DL adjustment, please email me or Eddie. A dream of mine: real-time Elias rankings available for all. I wonder if a player ever lost Type A status on the last day of the season?

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Yes I understand that. But would Elias be justified in feeling ripped of by Ed's cracking of their formula? It seems as though they could be justified. Is the Elias info paid for, or is it free to access?

Again these are serious questions, and not meant to accuse anything of Ed or demean what he's done.

The Elias info for past years was made available publicly all over the place. Edman used data from past years to figure out their formula. Then he applied that formula to this year's data. He took nothing from Elias that was not public and free.

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I also wonder if you contacted him Edman and gave him a chance to respond.

If you did then I can understand your blog.

If not, I think your response lacks professionalism as well. Maybe he lacked professionalism for not citing your blog? I don't know. Maybe you lacked professionalism for not getting his side of the story?

If a blog wants to have the respect the owner of it wants it to have, I think you need to account yourself to high standards if you are willing to attack others for their lack of standards. Maybe you did this. I don't know. But if you didn't, I think you maybe as guilty of some poor choices as anyone.

Did not, but the blog post isn't as harsh as the title of this thread.

http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/

Where did you get that information, Mr. Henning? Surely you didn't go through and calculate that on your own. Just a bit of recognition would be nice. Also, Gary Glover is not a free agent.

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He doesn't even have to cite me or MLBTR or Morosi. He just needs to say how he came to that conclusion, because he gives the impression that he got the numbers on his own. Again, I'm not questioning his journalistic integrity. However I am questioning the credibility of his speculations.

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Those are two that people have expressed surprise in when I have checked on reaction to the projections.

Is it a possibility that he may have heard these projections second or third hand and just hasn't run down where they came from. I know I have read about your work in at least 3 or 4 other places. Then again each of those places gave proper credit. Perhaps he was just being sloppy and not plagiarizing. Unless you are in the camp that considers that plagiarism.

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Is it a possibility that he may have heard these projections second or third hand and just hasn't run down where they came from. I know I have read about your work in at least 3 or 4 other places. Then again each of those places gave proper credit. Perhaps he was just being sloppy and not plagiarizing. Unless you are in the camp that considers that plagiarism.

I consider it hackery.

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Those are two that people have expressed surprise in when I have checked on reaction to the projections.

Ok. But Varitek still had 30 HRs and an OPS+ around 85 over the last two years. That's pretty good for a catcher, no? And Furcal missed almost all of 2007. That will hurt his Elias ranking quite a bit I would think.

I'm obviously just playing devil's advocate here. I think he probably used your info.

But still, I'm not sure I would consider cherry picking a few Elias types as a rip-off.

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Is it a possibility that he may have heard these projections second or third hand and just hasn't run down where they came from. I know I have read about your work in at least 3 or 4 other places. Then again each of those places gave proper credit. Perhaps he was just being sloppy and not plagiarizing. Unless you are in the camp that considers that plagiarism.

This sounds like a plausible scenario.

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The Elias info for past years was made available publicly all over the place. Edman used data from past years to figure out their formula. Then he applied that formula to this year's data. He took nothing from Elias that was not public and free.

Ok thank you.

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I am reminded of the Tom Lehrer song "Lovachevsky."

Who made me the genius I am today,

The mathematician that others all quote,

Who's the professor that made me that way?

The greatest that ever got chalk on his coat.

One man deserves the credit,

One man deserves the blame,

And Nicolai Ivanovich Lobachevsky is his name.

Hi!

Nicolai Ivanovich Lobach-

I am never forget the day I first meet the great Lobachevsky.

In one word he told me secret of success in mathematics:

Plagiarize!

Plagiarize,

Let no one else's work evade your eyes,

Remember why the good Lord made your eyes,

So don't shade your eyes,

But plagiarize, plagiarize, plagiarize -

Only be sure always to call it please 'research'.

And ever since I meet this man

My life is not the same,

And Nicolai Ivanovich Lobachevsky is his name.

Hi!

Nicolai Ivanovich Lobach-

I am never forget the day I am given first original paper

to write. It was on analytic and algebraic topology of

locally Euclidean parameterization of infinitely differentiable

Riemannian manifold.

Bozhe moi!

This I know from nothing.

What-i'm going-to do.

But I think of great Lobachevsky and get idea - ahah!

I have a friend in Minsk,

Who has a friend in Pinsk,

Whose friend in Omsk

Has friend in Tomsk

With friend in Akmolinsk.

His friend in Alexandrovsk

Has friend in Petropavlovsk,

Whose friend somehow

Is solving now

The problem in Dnepropetrovsk.

And when his work is done -

Ha ha! - begins the fun.

From Dnepropetrovsk

To Petropavlovsk,

By way of Iliysk,

And Novorossiysk,

To Alexandrovsk to Akmolinsk

To Tomsk to Omsk

To Pinsk to Minsk

To me the news will run,

Yes, to me the news will run!

And then I write

By morning, night,

And afternoon,

And pretty soon

My name in Dnepropetrovsk is cursed,

When he finds out I publish first!

And who made me a big success

And brought me wealth and fame?

Nicolai Ivanovich Lobachevsky is his name.

Hi!

Nicolai Ivanovich Lobach -

I am never forget the day my first book is published.

Every chapter I stole from somewhere else.

Index I copy from old Vladivostok telephone directory.

This book was sensational!

Pravda - well, Pravda - Pravda said: "Zhil-bil korol kogda-to, pree nyom blokha zhila"[1] It stinks.

But Izvestia! Izvestia said: "Ya idoo kuda sam czar idyot peshkom!"[2]

It stinks.

Metro-Goldwyn-Moskva buys movie rights for six million rubles,

Changing title to 'The Eternal Triangle',

With Ingrid Bergman playing part of hypotenuse.

And who deserves the credit?

And who deserves the blame?

Nicolai Ivanovich Lobachevsky is his name.

Hi!

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hmmmm....

Edman is really Henning?

(sorry for the insult Ed, I just thought it was the obvious thing to post)

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