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Lions 2009 NFL Draft: Early Thoughts

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The Lions have so many holes, stashing a #1 pick on the bench for a season or two is stupidity.

Same goes for second round picks, see Stanton and Alma-Francis.

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Same goes for second round picks, see Stanton and Alma-Francis.

Absolutely. Hopefully the days of drafting "projects" with great motors and "it", as if the team is a perennial contender, are long gone.

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I disagree. I think stashing a top pick on the bench is a good idea. Keep losing for a couple years and stockpile the talent and pull a Tampa Bay Rays on the rest of the league in 2011. Nothing they do in the draft this year or next will get the team to a championship before then.

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I disagree. I think stashing a top pick on the bench is a good idea. Keep losing for a couple years and stockpile the talent and pull a Tampa Bay Rays on the rest of the league in 2011. Nothing they do in the draft this year or next will get the team to a championship before then.

Hmmm .... when you put it that way .....

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This isn't baseball Shelton. There are no minor leagues to develop guys. With the eception of QB's, sitting on the bench can hinder development. Now you have guys regressing in a league where the average career is probably something like 5-8 years.

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This isn't baseball Shelton. There are no minor leagues to develop guys. With the eception of QB's, sitting on the bench can hinder development. Now you have guys regressing in a league where the average career is probably something like 5-8 years.

I understand that. I'm certainly not advocating stunting a player's development. But I don't see much advantage in finishing 8-8. What I'm trying to say is that they could afford to draft Matt Stafford with the top pick (or Painter with a later pick) and let them develop in the right system. The team can suck again next year and get another top pick and focus on being competitive later. Obviously there will probably never be another 2008 Rays perfect storm of development and trades in any sport.

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I messed with the Online Draft Simulator

1. Oher (OT-Ole Miss)

1. Greg Hardy (DE-Ole Miss)

2. Sean Witherspoon (OLB-Mizzou)

3. Hermann Johnson (OG-LSU)

3. Josh Mauga (ILB-Nevada)

I did this and came up with;

1. Oher (OT-Miss)

27. Hardy (DE-Miss)

33. T. Taylor (DT- UM)

65. Luigs (C- Ark)

91. Johnson (CB- Miami)

If I back off the values for center and bump up ILB, I got exactly what sagnam got...

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Greg Hardy should be the best pass rusher in this draft. He moves better than the others, but his effort has been inconsistent. When he doesn't give up on a play, he's tremendous, a top prospect. He should be a top 10 prospect, but he's not.

There are three great centers in this draft; Alex Mack of Cal, Luigs, and Wood of Louisville. All similar players. All can move to guard.

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If Sam Bradford comes to the NFL after this college season and is available when the Lions draft, should the Lions draft him?

I don't know if he will come out anyway as he places academics high on is priority list. He wants to become a corporate attorney and came out of high school with a 4.2 gpa. He may even be close to graduating after this academic year because he is in his 3rd year of school.

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If Sam Bradford comes to the NFL after this college season and is available when the Lions draft, should the Lions draft him?

I don't know if he will come out anyway as he places academics high on is priority list. He wants to become a corporate attorney and came out of high school with a 4.2 gpa. He may even be close to graduating after this academic year because he is in his 3rd year of school.

If you need a QB, and he's the best player on the board, then yeah, you draft him. Right now, it's a tight race for the #1 QB. If they both come out, both he and Stafford are legit top QB prospects.

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I'd be pretty happy if the Lions took 4 lineman with their first 4 picks. Just as long as they aren't system player reaches, like Dizon/Cherilous.

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I'd be pretty happy if the Lions took 4 lineman with their first 4 picks. Just as long as they aren't system player reaches, like Dizon/Cherilous.

I agree...I also agree with Cruzer who has stated that we need more team speed. But I think there is a formula. And the speedsters can't do anything without the big hogs up front.

In this scenario, It would not be unthinkable for Oher and Robinson to start right away with the Jean-Francois getting heavy reps at DT. Greg Hardy would probably be treated a lot like the Bucs treated Gaines Adams--let him develop for a year as a situational rusher and then bring him in slowly.

Keenen Lewis is a new name for me, I'll have to do more digging.

Surprised there wasn't a single linebacker...i'll work on that.

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My 2 cents:

I think there are several philosophies that can be considered in the upcoming draft:

1) BPA: This is the favored philosophy, even though we know a team must still build a "team" and therefore cannot draft 7 QB's in a draft, even if they are the "BPA" at each spot in the draft. Obviously, at some point in the draft, a team has to fill holes in it's roster.

2) Needs: we have them just about everywhere based on current personnel. That should allow the Lions to draft closer to BPA, rather than simply to fill a "need". Often, a team can do both if they have an astute GM.

Three sub-factors that I'm going to add in there for the Lions, one sub-category for BPA and two for Need:

a) Opportunity: Sometimes you just have to take the opportunity to fill a critical position, regardless of team need, simply because a draft position opportunity presents itself. This can be labeled as BPA, and is what Millen thought he was doing with Mike Williams, which he obviously F'd up. It's why, if we draft a 1st round QB that has Manning-like potential would be OK with me, if Stafford or Bradford have that. I would NOT be happy with a WR-1st round pick because WR is NOT a critical position to fill on a FB team. Important, and requiring competance and ability, yes... but critical, no.

b) Desperation: Just as an example: While we need to eventually replace Hanson, due to age, we are not desperate to do so at this point. He's gotta be getting close to the end of his career... but we have a little time yet, I'm thinking. I also think we could use a shutdown CB, but we are not desperate to do so, as Smith and Bodden at least have the ability to man the position competantly, and maybe better than that.

c) In-house potential: I would lower a positional "need" based on who we have in-house with "potential". That doesn't say that the need should disregarded, especially since our in-house "talent" hasn't really shown itself yet... but just for example... if we selected an OT who could ONLY play RT... Ill be pissed, because we basically just duplicated Cherilus.

So... My tiered draft needs, based on the above, would be:

1st round need (high): LT. Gotta protect the QB, and establish the run. Period. Critical position, desperate need to move Backus to LG. Noone else there that can play the position. Puts Oher/ Monroe at the very top of my draft list.

1st round need (low): DT. I don't think Fluellan replaces Rogers. Maybe Redding, but not Rogers. Gotta control LOS, imperative to find a Rogers replacement.

1st round need (high-to-low): Franchise QB. Based on ability (If Bradford or Stafford meets the definition of "franchise", o/w lower need), and mitigated by the presence of Stanton. Imperative to evaluate Stonton's future potential, on the field, which could raise QB need to high 1st round.

2nd round need: LB'er. Also imperative to actually tackle someone. Dizon may yet make it... so I don't care much if it's ILB or SLB, just that we get the best tackler, that covers the most field, as there is in the draft. Based on opportunity, that might require a LB'er with Dallas's 1st round pick, and the best DT with the 2nd.

3rd round needs: NOT an OG as I believe Backus could excel at LG, and gotta let Ramirez's potential get at least 1 more year of chance before committing additional early round picks at this position. NOT DE either, as White is above-average, would be helped by a pocket-collapser, and IAF and Avril need at least another year of actually being allowed to see the field before we know for certain if this is an area of strong need or not. I think 3rd round needs, at this point, are greater at WR, to complement Furrey and CJ, and CB to give Smith & Bodden some help/ competition (hopefully these two guys have desperately needed return skills).

5th round you just have to hope you can find someone with potential at TE.

6th round potential at Center. Although maybe the two 6ths are used to trade up, with the 5th, for an excellent player in the 4th (TE or Center...).

In 2010, then you know if a better "franchise QB" needs to be found (sometimes can be done through FA, and not just the draft), and/ or whether a top-flight pass-rusher needs to be drafted (about the only option...). Use 2010 1st and 2nd rounders for those spots if Stanton, IAF, and Avril show too little in 2009 to keep those spots.

So my draft would look like:

Michael Oher

Aaron Curry or Lauranitis (I predict Dallas to finish crappy and get us a pick at about #15...)

Alex Mack (surprise pick by the Lions, completely revamps O-line, by forcing Raiola to RG, or even a trade of one of Backus or Raiola, although that might not be right away...)

Derrick Williams, Penn State.

Domonique Johnson (CB - Jackson St)

That leaves holes at QB, DT, and DE... all areas that we have prospects at... even though we do not know if they will pan out or not. Give 'em another year though, IMO, to see if they have anything to offer...

Just my 2 (2,000?) cents.

:grin:

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If we draft Oher can we move Backus to a G position and not have to use multiple picks on the O-line?

Yes.

Although I would kill to draft Alex Mack at the top of the 2nd or move up a few spots into the late 1st to get him...

Trade Raiola. For a 3rd or 4th rounder?

IMO.

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I agree...I also agree with Cruzer who has stated that we need more team speed. But I think there is a formula. And the speedsters can't do anything without the big hogs up front.

In this scenario, It would not be unthinkable for Oher and Robinson to start right away with the Jean-Francois getting heavy reps at DT. Greg Hardy would probably be treated a lot like the Bucs treated Gaines Adams--let him develop for a year as a situational rusher and then bring him in slowly.

Keenen Lewis is a new name for me, I'll have to do more digging.

Surprised there wasn't a single linebacker...i'll work on that.

Both Lewis and Hughes are decent prospects from Oregon State, but I prefer Hughes. I think there are some late gems in this CB class, it's a deep group.

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If we draft Oher can we move Backus to a G position and not have to use multiple picks on the O-line?

It sounds like a solid plan, I'll work on tweaking the team needs to a point where we're drafting the best OL and then DL rather than taking two of each.

As I've said before I'd love a linebacker or two in their as well and now I'm warming up to the ideas of WR or DB

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We should draft

Colt McCoy qb

Duke Robertson G

Bear Pascoe TE

3 positions of need and 3 guys with great football names.

Don't know if they'd be good but we'd be colorful.

Colt, Duke and the Bear. I love it.

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After watching Colt the last few weeks I wouldn't be opposed to drafting him. He looks like a solid football player.

Edit: I wouldn't draft him with our first 1st rounder as I think we need to settle the OL with Oher and I doubt that McCoy will be there with our second 1st rounder

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No commentary on my Oher, Lauranitis, Mack, Williams, Domonique Johnson selection ideas? I`m thinking an o-line of Oher, Backus, Mack, Ramirez, and Cherilus sets us up nicely for the future.

And it gives stanton, IAF, avril, and fluellen a chance to prove themselves before we draft their replacements.

And it also adds some speed/ skill at cb/ wr/ and returner...

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No commentary on my Oher, Lauranitis, Mack, Williams, Domonique Johnson selection ideas? I`m thinking an o-line of Oher, Backus, Mack, Ramirez, and Cherilus sets us up nicely for the future.

And it gives stanton, IAF, avril, and fluellen a chance to prove themselves before we draft their replacements.

And it also adds some speed/ skill at cb/ wr/ and returner...

I don't know much about Mack, but I like the idea of drafting Oher and moving Backus to LG. And, I think that a line of Oher, Backus, Raiola, Ramirez, and Cherilus is a pretty decent upgrade over this years line and it would then save us a pick to use elsewhere and improve the Lions.

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The only issue I have there is that I think raiola is one of the key issues / problems with our inability in establishing the run. I just don't think we can do it successfully/ consistently with raiola at center...

I`ll take mack`s 320 #'s... and HOPE that we might actually be able to fix that. IMO, I think that would be a major key for us to dominate on the o-line [replacing raiola that is...]

plus... there may still be the possibility that raiola has some trade value in the draft... even if it's a later round...

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I'm not a firm believer in Oher. From what I've read, he's not the brightest bulb in the box. I just don't want to spend THAT high of a pick on someone that may not be able to even digest a NFL playbook. He may have all the potential in the world...but if he doesn't know if he's blocking left or right what good is he? He had to be worked with 5 nights a week 4 hours a night by an aide to graduate high school. His reading ability is poor and at one point posted an 80 on an IQ test early in high school. They found out he does better if things are read out loud to him...but is he worth the trouble?

Just my opinion and some info I've learned on him...

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