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Lions 2009 NFL Draft: Early Thoughts

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Yeah...you can. They're called statistic outliers.

If Kitna runs 30 yards backwards and takes a dump on the 1 yard line for a sack...it would show up in the stats as a -30 yard rush. It would then also factor into the teams average. Whereas, yes its part of the statistics, it would also be misleading to the overall situation.

Why...oh why...would you mention the overall average without at least giving the impression that "oh yeah, by the way, Kevin Smith has a robust 3.6 yard average."

Either way, 2.9 yards/carry isn't great, but its better than an incompletion. This team could benefit from a lot more 3rd and 3's than it's currently seeing.

Meanwhile, once again you fail to realize that this team, in 4 games, has only run 17 times in the 1st quarter. That's 4.25 rushes per 1st quarter for a team that promised to emphasize the rush. They haven't!

You fail to offer any proof they can't...you've only offered proof they haven't tried.

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The stats show they are not good at running while the game is still competitive and the same coaches that once swore to emphasize the run have all but abandoned it for "some strange reason" (most likely the realization that they can't, which is exactly what happened with Martz).

I guess the only reason I haven't been able to fly is because I haven't tried it enough times yet.

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Yeah...you can. They're called statistic outliers.

If Kitna runs 30 yards backwards and takes a dump on the 1 yard line for a sack...it would show up in the stats as a -30 yard rush. It would then also factor into the teams average. Whereas, yes its part of the statistics, it would also be misleading to the overall situation.

Why...oh why...would you mention the overall average without at least giving the impression that "oh yeah, by the way, Kevin Smith has a robust 3.6 yard average."

Ok, without Kevin Smith's first quarter long run of 14 yards he is averaging a 'robust' 2.8 yards per carry.

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The stats show they are not good at running while the game is still competitive and the same coaches that once swore to emphasize the run have all but abandoned it for "some strange reason" (most likely the realization that they can't, which is exactly what happened with Martz).

I guess the only reason I haven't been able to fly is because I haven't tried it enough times yet.

Hyperbole aside...4.25 runs per 1st quarter is ridiculous

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Hyperbole aside...4.25 runs per 1st quarter is ridiculous

That's because they drop passes every 1st quarter and can't keep drives going.

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Just for info's sake:

On my recent personal mock draft 2.0 on the Drafttek Blog I have the Lions picking Andre Smith (OT-Alabama) as the 2nd OT off the board with the 3rd pick (Oher and Michael Johnson going 1-2).

I love Andre Smith, but I don't see either of those players ahead of Stafford. Stafford's arm strength is up with the best in the NFL, he's an elite QB prospect.

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Hyperbole aside...4.25 runs per 1st quarter is ridiculous

Another question - and I don't know the answer to this - but how many PLAYS do the Lions run in the first quarter as compared to other teams? It seems to me that the Lions are always going three and out, then the other team starts a nice long drive. It could be that the Lions runs per 1st quarter seem low simply because they don't run many plays because their defense is always on the field.

Regardless, the Lions running game is poor. When they are actually in the game, their running game has been stuffed. When the game is out of reach, they've busted a couple nice runs.

Simply doing something you're bad at over and over and over and over again doesn't mean you'll get better at it if you didn't have the talent to do it right in the first place.

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It seems to me that the Lions are always going three and out, then the other team starts a nice long drive. It could be that the Lions runs per 1st quarter seem low simply because they don't run many plays because their defense is always on the field.

This is the answer. We spend way too much time talking about play-calling, run/pass ratio, and QBs. These things don't really matter because the Lions' defense stinks, it is absolutely terrible and it has done nothing except get worse under Marinelli/Barry. As long as the defense is this bad, none of the other stuff really matters.

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Okay, I'm looking at Rivals.com 2009 Mock Draft from this past April. Here are some of the guys listed in the first round. Maybe some more knowledgeable people can speak about these prospects.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss

Many were surprised the Tennessee native decided to return, but the move will likely make him a top-10 pick. He has made 34 consecutive starts and is a left tackle at the next level.

I would like Oher with our first pick. Moving Backus inside to LG and adding a guy with Oher's skill set would make an instant improvement in an area of monumental weakness. I've been asking for this kind of move for the last two drafts, hopefully it will happen this time...

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Kitna's attempted 20 passes in the 1st quarter. He's also had 1 rush attempt and been sacked 4 times.

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Kitna's attempted 20 passes in the 1st quarter. He's also had 1 rush attempt and been sacked 4 times.

So, it's been 17 runs and 20 passes in the first quarter. That's almost 50/50. Play calling isn't the problem.

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I would like Oher with our first pick. Moving Backus inside to LG and adding a guy with Oher's skill set would make an instant improvement in an area of monumental weakness. I've been asking for this kind of move for the last two drafts, hopefully it will happen this time...

I've watched Oher probably 5-6 times in the past two seasons. He is one of the more dominant blockers I've watched at the collegiate level. His footwork is not Joe Thomas-caliber but his natural talent is outstanding. Pass blocking he is very sound and run blocking he is a force...not sure he is a "zone blocker" but i'd love to find out.

He'll more than likely be gone by the top 2-3 picks, good thing we have a chance :-)

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I've heard some say that Oher will move to RT in the NFL. He's a cab-ride to get around, has outstanding hands, the questions remain with him are similar to Cherilus...he plays too high, and has a high base. Andre Smith is more athletic, whereas Oher is a little more of a run blocker. They're both top 5 material.

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Also, don't forget about Eugene Monroe from Virginia, who might go higher than the other two, and definitely deserves to be in the conversation for the top LT prospect. He was the reason Branden Albert wasn't the LT, and was a guard in college.

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Also, don't forget about Eugene Monroe from Virginia, who might go higher than the other two, and definitely deserves to be in the conversation for the top LT prospect. He was the reason Branden Albert wasn't the LT, and was a guard in college.

I like Monroe also. Any scenario that nets the Lions either Oher or Monroe would be a good thing.

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Drafttek's Updated Bigboard (Juniors added Oct 10)

1 Michael Oher Mississippi OT

2 Andre Smith Alabama OT

3 Matt Stafford Georgia QB

4 Malcolm Jenkins Ohio State CB

5 Michael Crabtree Texas Tech WR

6 Knowshon Moreno Georgia RB

7 Eugene Monroe Virginia OT

8 James Laurinaitis Ohio State ILB

9 Michael Johnson Georgia Tech DE

10 Taylor Mays USC FS

Actual list goes through 177

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Texas DE Brian Orkapo is running circles all around OU star tackle Phil Loadholt. Orkapo would sure add some solid speed to our defense and if Avril advances in development we would have two good pass rushing ends.

Loadholt is one of the top 5 tackles in the nation and Orkapo is making him look like a walk on true freshman.

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Texas DE Brian Orkapo is running circles all around OU star tackle Phil Loadholt. Orkapo would sure add some solid speed to our defense and if Avril advances in development we would have two good pass rushing ends.

Loadholt is one of the top 5 tackles in the nation and Orkapo is making him look like a walk on true freshman.

I noticed the mismatch to and it surprised me to a point. Orkapo is probably a top-5 DE (#2 on DT's Big Board)

But I disagree with the assessment on Loadholt. I've seen him and watched him...but he's never been on any of my personal lists of guys to watch and I haven't seen him on any top lists. Its a good year for OTs and he's not one of them.

All that being said, if we're picking #5 Michael Johnson (GA Tech) should be available and is a better pick that Orkapo

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Drafttek's Updated Bigboard (Juniors added Oct 10)

1 Michael Oher Mississippi OT

2 Andre Smith Alabama OT

3 Matt Stafford Georgia QB

4 Malcolm Jenkins Ohio State CB

5 Michael Crabtree Texas Tech WR

6 Knowshon Moreno Georgia RB

7 Eugene Monroe Virginia OT

8 James Laurinaitis Ohio State ILB

9 Michael Johnson Georgia Tech DE

10 Taylor Mays USC FS

Actual list goes through 177

Do you think Crabtree will want to wear Roy's old #11?

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Do you think Crabtree will want to wear Roy's old #11?

Millen is gone my friend! Whereas I think losing Roy would mean adding a WR at some point, there are better ways to do it than drafting at the top.

We have a #1, his name is Calvin Johnson...I believe a battle between Furrey and McDonald for #2 would be fine.

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