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Lions 2009 NFL Draft: Early Thoughts

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First trade down - then draft . . . OL, DL

Not easy to do. Top 5 picks command huge contracts. Most teams don't want to draft there anymore. The sweet spot is 10-20 because you get a very good player at a reasonble contract.

The famed point system scale has been outdated for a couple of drafts. There should be a cost adjusted point system now.

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That's all true, but that doesn't mean it's too early.

The second round is always too early to take a flyer on a guy who doesn't project to be a starter at the pro level. Not saying that Daniel COULDN'T be a starter, but he doesn't project to be, and thus it's a gamble not to be taken this early on. Team have to try to get 3-4 starters out of each draft (not necesarily in the first year, but shortly thereafter in the least)... hard to do when taking those kind of gambles this early on.

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Well yes, all mocking is drawing straws, even the morning of the draft. But as I've discussed in this forum before, I personally don't believe it is ever too early to discuss team needs and consequently the players who may fill them. I have never meant to discuss drafttek as a perfect prediction tool, but rather a means to discussion.

Whereas I agree that combine times and measurements help the process, you and I both know what happens on the field matters more. The "big board" of drafttek is compiled of many different collegiate scouting sources. Its not like we're picking names out of a hat here.

I agree, but due to nothing he's done. Daniel is a more athletic Drew Brees in my mind. He will always get flack for not being "prototypical" size but he gets it done on the field.

That being said, unless I get some pretty serious discussion to the contrary I refuse to believe QB is even a relevant need let alone pressing. If Stanton isn't the answer, we don't need another rookie and should be looking at the free agent crop (KFFL List)

Next year looks to be pretty deep for QB's. Drafting QB's instead of an available speed player is sometimes a mistake. You should not draft a QB to be your starter.

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I personally don't believe it is ever too early to discuss team needs and consequently the players who may fill them. I have never meant to discuss drafttek as a perfect prediction tool, but rather a means to discussion.

I'm not personally in this camp but there's a large faction that believe the best teams draft mainly on BPA and ignore specific team needs.

Whereas I agree that combine times and measurements help the process, you and I both know what happens on the field matters more.

I'm very surprised that you believe this line of thought.

I am a firm believer that NFL teams value the combination of physical attributes (ht/wt/injuryhist) and combine/proday workouts more than they do the tape on the field. There are countless examples that support this with incredibly productive all-American caliber players taken far below less accomplished players that had great workout numbers. How can on field production be more important in the draft process when all it takes is 4.8 seconds in Indianapolis to ruin a spectacular college playing career in the minds of scouts.

Let me also add that I think it's incredibly stupid that they do this and is a huge reason why so many draft picks turn into busts.

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Next year looks to be pretty deep for QB's. Drafting QB's instead of an available speed player is sometimes a mistake. You should not draft a QB to be your starter.

I just said we shouldn't draft a QB

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I'm not personally in this camp but there's a large faction that believe the best teams draft mainly on BPA and ignore specific team needs.

I'm very surprised that you believe this line of thought.

I am a firm believer that NFL teams value the combination of physical attributes (ht/wt/injuryhist) and combine/proday workouts more than they do the tape on the field. There are countless examples that support this with incredibly productive all-American caliber players taken far below less accomplished players that had great workout numbers. How can on field production be more important in the draft process when all it takes is 4.8 seconds in Indianapolis to ruin a spectacular college playing career in the minds of scouts.

Let me also add that I think it's incredibly stupid that they do this and is a huge reason why so many draft picks turn into busts.

I don't believe the Lions have valued physical attributes enough. I believe they are a slow team in a fast division/conference. I think when it is close physically, thats when you roll tape to choose the better player.

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I know we haven't seen much of Orlovsky or Stanton, but do you see them as franchise QBs?

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if I was handed the task fo drafting for them, I'd draft the best available player everytime it's our pick. The Lions are terrible (or as Charles says Turrible) at picking for their needs. Whether it's Sims or Cherilus 10 places ahead of where they were slotted, or Stanton 2 rounds ahead of where he was slotted, with 2 local defensive players still on the board (anyone want Woodley's 5.5 sacks in the last 2 games?). the only time they attempted to draft the best player, their scouting really let them down with the Mike Williams pick, not to mention then being hardasses and refusing to put all 3 guys on the field once the season started. Good teams don't bench players for not practicing hard enough, they bench them after playing them and them not performing. Mike Williams however out of shape he was, was never really put into the lineup and given chances to catch the ball and be productive.

If someone like Chase Daniels falls to the 2nd round because scouts think he's too short, or not fast enough, or he doesn't have a high enough vertical, they should take him. They need to be the team who benefits from the Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees types who everyone overlooks for guys like Alex Smith. The fact that we could have Marion Barber III instead of Stanley Wilson is retarded. Whoever is in charge needs to scout the big ten, and draft studs, then when you draft them, MAKE SURE THE COACH PLAYS THEM

and get rid of Rod too, they need a coach who can adapt to what they have rather than change everyone to fit his system. Adapting to "Rod's Guys" is gonna hurt us for a couple of years after he's gone when all the ex-tampa gusy will be worthless to the new coach

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I know we haven't seen much of Orlovsky or Stanton, but do you see them as franchise QBs?

Personally from seeing Drew in college, I think there's a chance he could become a "Tony Romo" type. But I don't think Orlovsky has a chance to be any more than a Kitna type. Not sure if it'll happen for Drew, but I'd say he has the best shot of being worth something to lions out of the 3 guys they have

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I know we haven't seen much of Orlovsky or Stanton, but do you see them as franchise QBs?

How many teams have a franchise QB? 10 Maybe. The Lions just need a servicable QB, and to resolve their other issues.

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If I remember right, Stanton had a bad habit (like Kitna) of throwing late game interceptions.

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How many teams have a franchise QB? 10 Maybe. The Lions just need a servicable QB, and to resolve their other issues.

If the Lions can some how develop a consistent running game, then they should be alright with a serviceable QB. With the Lions, developing a consistent running game could take quite a while. I would love to see the Lions draft Chase Daniel in the later rounds.

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If the Lions can some how develop a consistent running game, then they should be alright with a serviceable QB. With the Lions, developing a consistent running game could take quite a while. I would love to see the Lions draft Chase Daniel in the later rounds.

They could do it right now if they would call running plays. They quit on the running game too easily, which is the opposite of what they were going to do.

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They could do it right now if they would call running plays. They quit on the running game too easily, which is the opposite of what they were going to do.

It's because they can't run! That's why Martz stopped trying and that's why Mr. Pound the Rock himself is going to stop trying.

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The Lions are averaging 4.4 yards/carry as a team. 66 attempts in 4 games isn't enough.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/teams/stats?team=det

What are they averaging in the first quarter? The only time they're still in the game.

Their running game is bad, and it's not because they don't use it enough, it's because it isn't any good.

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That being said, unless I get some pretty serious discussion to the contrary I refuse to believe QB is even a relevant need let alone pressing. If Stanton isn't the answer, we don't need another rookie and should be looking at the free agent crop (KFFL List)

Looking at that FA QB list, it's pretty thin, and a big reason why we need to see Stanton ASAP. If he's not the guy, than next year could be even worse.

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What are they averaging in the first quarter? The only time they're still in the game.

Their running game is bad, and it's not because they don't use it enough, it's because it isn't any good.

THis makes zero sense. I can't go by what's hapened(I'm smart enough to not watch) but unless you see something that says they stink, 4.4 yards per carry is pretty good. Even being down 21-0 int he first quarter you HAVE to run the ball in order to keep the defense honest. Just giving up on the run and have 17 carries a game is bad coaching, especially when you're averaging 4.4 ypc

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The Lions are averaging 4.4 yards/carry as a team. 66 attempts in 4 games isn't enough.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/teams/stats?team=det

+1

THis makes zero sense. I can't go by what's hapened(I'm smart enough to not watch) but unless you see something that says they stink, 4.4 yards per carry is pretty good. Even being down 21-0 int he first quarter you HAVE to run the ball in order to keep the defense honest. Just giving up on the run and have 17 carries a game is bad coaching, especially when you're averaging 4.4 ypc

+1

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I've watched all the games. Nothing I've seen has shown me that this team could run the ball consistently. When they are still in the games in the 1st quarter they are averaging 2.9 yards per carry. In the second half where they've been down about 30 each game they are averaging 5.1 yards per carry.

Detroit running backs splits:

			1st quarter			1st half			1st down			2nd down			total				2nd half	
Player ATT TDS AVG ATT TDS AVG ATT TDS AVG ATT TDS AVG ATT TDS AVG ATT TDS AVG
Rudi Johnson 3 -2 -0.7 11 45 4.1 11 56 5.1 10 54 5.4 23 122 5.3 12 77 6.4
Kevin Smith 14 51 3.6 23 77 3.3 19 57 3.0 18 76 4.2 37 133 3.6 14 56 4.0
Total 17 49 2.9 34 122 3.6 30 113 3.8 28 130 4.6 60 255 4.3 26 133 5.1

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THis makes zero sense. I can't go by what's hapened(I'm smart enough to not watch) but unless you see something that says they stink, 4.4 yards per carry is pretty good. Even being down 21-0 int he first quarter you HAVE to run the ball in order to keep the defense honest. Just giving up on the run and have 17 carries a game is bad coaching, especially when you're averaging 4.4 ypc

Those stats are skewed, runs work better against prevent defenses, which teams go into once the Lions are demolished after the first quarter.

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Sagnam,

First, You can't take the obvious outlier of Rudi's 3 first quarter attempts against Smith's 14 attempts.

Second, 17 first quarter attempts is ridiculous. You have to establish the run if you want to run.

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first, you can't just eliminate some of the stats because you don't like them. It doesn't work that way. I'm sure you wouldn't like it if I removed the longest runs from the average.

Second, you can't establish the run when your team is incapable of running the ball.

			Tied				Losing 1-7			Losing 8-14			Losing 15-21			Losing 22+	
Player ATT YDS AVG ATT YDS AVG ATT YDS AVG ATT YDS AVG ATT YDS AVG
Rudi Johnson 4 13 3.3 6 33 5.5 9 60 6.7 4 16 4.0
Kevin Smith 6 20 3.3 9 25 2.8 4 6 1.5 14 59 4.2 4 23 5.8
Total 6 20 3.3 13 38 2.9 10 39 3.9 23 119 5.2 8 39 4.9

This team is not good at running the ball.

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