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The Captain

The Season that Marcus Thames is Really Having

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Good post. When Marcus started playing everyday he attacked the umpire. That was weird and out of character for Marcus.

... Huh? :confused:

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Joyce now has 10 HR in 107 at-bats... I think I heard he had 13 HR in the minors so that would give him 23 HR this year.

Thames has 19 HR in 200 at-bats.

Similar numbers.

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I guess the key here is the benchmark of what was created when these guys broke out. For example Encarnacion was going to be the next 30/30 guy

Encarnacion at age 23 (1999) had just finished his first full season with the Tigers hitting 19 HRs in 509 at-bats. He hit 15 HRs the year before in 520 at-bats spread between AAA and the Tigers. Anyone who said he was going to hit 30 HRs was speculating way beyond what the numbers presented at that point.

By comparison, Matt Joyce has hit over 20 HRs in a half season at AAA and the Tigers at the age of 23, and 10 of them with the Tigers. Those are big power numbers.

You keep suggesting that I'm over-projecting his minor-league stats, but I'm not really even projecting based on his numbers, rather the fact that I can't think of 23-year olds who have hit this many HRs against ML pitching in their first 100 at-bats who failed as power hitters in the ML.

20-30 HRs for Joyce would represent an above-average OF, not a great one. I don't think that requires a leap of faith when this guy has done what he's done this year, building on his last two years of steady upward development.

and Shelton was going to battle for batting titles,

Projecting and predicting are two different things. Nobody can reasonably predict or even project that any minor leaguer is going to win batting titles unless that player is a very, very special hitter. Shelton was never that level a hitter in the minors. He started out as a .275-.295 hitter in the big leagues. Good, but not that good.

and a similar sentiment, albeit yet to be determined, would be predicting Matt Joyce to hit 25-30 homers over a career.

See above. Joyce has done something that none of the players you mention have been able to do at age 23, not even Marcus Thames.

Other examples that come to mind are the Gabes, Kaplar and Alvarez.

At age 23, Kapler had a good year with the Tigers and AAA, with 470 at-bats and 21 HRs. He had an OPS with the Tigers of .775. At the age of 23, Kapler needed more than double the at-bats to hit the same number of HRs as Joyce has so far. While Gabe's decent power disappeared in his fourth year as a back injury derailed his career.

Injuries are a wild card that you cannot project.

The big difference with Gabe Alvarez is that he never had even a good stretch of hitting major-league pitching. He was awesome for a couple of AAA seasons.

IMO, the examples are plenty of players who experience success for a spell

Name one that has hit 20+ HRs in a half a season of AAA/ML ball at the age of 23 and I might agree with you that Joyce's performance does not indicate that he will be a successful power hitter (i.e., 20-30 HR per full season barring injuries) in the ML in the future.

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I have a hard time sitting Joyce vs Right handed pitching. A thames/ Joyce platoon seems the like the best thing to do with Maggs back.

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I have a hard time sitting Joyce vs Right handed pitching. A thames/ Joyce platoon seems the like the best thing to do with Maggs back.

Or we could just have Thames DH.

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Actually, Joyce is 3-7 (2 doubles, 2 walks) vs. left handed pitching, so why not find out if he can't hit lefties over a period of time? He needs to see lefties to get better at it, also.

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Yet the only reason Kmo played all those games was because of his power. Thames should've been playing regularly quite a while ago.

Thames should've been starting even back when Monroe was here. It's astounding to me that he's only gotten one extended chance to start.........and did well in that chance before getting hurt (last season).

I hear fans talk about what happens when he gets exposed, but nobody knows that because he never plays any extended period of time. The argument would hold much more water if he got extended PT and then got exposed.

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Actually, Joyce is 3-7 (2 doubles, 2 walks) vs. left handed pitching, so why not find out if he can't hit lefties over a period of time? He needs to see lefties to get better at it, also.
True, but under the current circumstances I would not sit Thames or Sheffield to make that happen.

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