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As I believe icetee said in another thread, who was a legit better option?

Miner, Seay, Bazardo, Bautista, Lopez

Anyone who didn't prove last year how disastrous they were when used in close games with men on base?

I actually have to admit that I was over-reactionary last year and Grilli isn't *that* terrible, but that's only when he's used in closer like situations i.e. starting the inning no one on base.

He just allows too many base runners to make sense when you've already got two on base. Admittedly that is probably true of most everyone in the Tigers bullpen, but at least the others haven't already showcased the ability repeatedly.

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We needed to play more like Kansas City ie more small ball. I think that's one flaw in having such a power packed lineup. We get so used to bashing we forget how to move runners up, sacrifice and get simple hits.

But again, it's just one game.

I don't know that the Tigers needed to play smallball today. They had runners on 3rd base a couple times with 1 out and couldn't score the run.

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Yeah. I thought "smallball" was the reason we probably didn't score in the 11th. I hated to see them bunt in that situation. Maybe if Clete was on first, but he was already on 2nd. Don't give away an out!

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Does anyone have the run probabilities of a man on second, no out, versus a man on third, one out? I don't like the bunt there, but maybe the numbers will prove me wrong?

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Does anyone have the run probabilities of a man on second, no out, versus a man on third, one out? I don't like the bunt there, but maybe the numbers will prove me wrong?

First, the odds of scoring a run do go up when you don't give away the out. I don't have the numbers on hand though. Also, it depends on other factors like who is hitting. Brandon hit well this spring and was 1 for 3 with a double and walk on the day. I say, let him hit.

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First, the odds of scoring a run do go up when you don't give away the out. I don't have the numbers on hand though. Also, it depends on other factors like who is hitting. Brandon hit well this spring and was 1 for 3 with a double and walk on the day. I say, let him hit.

I agree. This bothered me more than putting Grilli in with 2 on and no out.

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I agree. This bothered me more than putting Grilli in with 2 on and no out.

Not sure I agree. All Renteria has to do is avoid popping out or striking out, and the run scores. It didn't work out that way, but thems the breaks. No problem with the decision to bunt the runner over to third. Either way, it's one game. I think I'm more upset that the price of a beer at Copa was raised this year!

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Yeah. I thought "smallball" was the reason we probably didn't score in the 11th. I hated to see them bunt in that situation. Maybe if Clete was on first, but he was already on 2nd. Don't give away an out!

I disagree. I thought the bunt was necessary. With Clete on third and Renteria and Polanco coming up to bat, the Tigers had a very good chance at scoring there.

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I disagree. I thought the bunt was necessary. With Clete on third and Renteria and Polanco coming up to bat, the Tigers had a very good chance at scoring there.

Statistics say they would have had a better chance of scoring with Clete on 2nd and 0 outs.

You're far more likely to get 1 hit with 3 AB's than 1 hit with only 2 AB's left. Neither Polanco nor Renteria will hit .500 this year so the odds are against the Tigers getting a hit there.

Now, if Neifi is batting or something and there's a runner on first, I'm all for the bunt in that situation. But that wasn't the case.

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First, the odds of scoring a run do go up when you don't give away the out. I don't have the numbers on hand though. Also, it depends on other factors like who is hitting. Brandon hit well this spring and was 1 for 3 with a double and walk on the day. I say, let him hit.
Not only was he a hot hitter, but he's had success against Soria (in a very small sample, but he's 1-4 with a HR), so you can't even say it was a matchup deal. If he has something like 0-10 against Soria I'd be more inclined to bunt.

Leyland was playing for one run, but I agree with you, don't like giving up an out there. Inge could have grounded out, flied deep enough to advance the runner, or reached base, all good outcomes. The bunt only provides one good outcome unless you happen to reach base.

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Statistics say they would have had a better chance of scoring with Clete on 2nd and 0 outs.

You're far more likely to get 1 hit with 3 AB's than 1 hit with only 2 AB's left. Neither Polanco nor Renteria will hit .500 this year so the odds are against the Tigers getting a hit there.

Now, if Neifi is batting or something and there's a runner on first, I'm all for the bunt in that situation. But that wasn't the case.

With Clete on third, the minimum requirement goes from a hit to a fly ball

The best past of the game was that throw Inge made. Enough said !

The throw Guillen made from RF to nail Maggs was pretty awesome too...especially because he didn't field it directly in front of him. I love great defense!

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With Clete on third, the minimum requirement goes from a hit to a fly ball
But you have to factor in all the batted balls that don't score him as well. Must be a deep enough fly, or a ground ball to a few narrow portions of the infield. By not bunting, and preserving one out, your scoring chances improve overall.

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Leyland was playing for one run, but I agree with you, don't like giving up an out there. Inge could have grounded out, flied deep enough to advance the runner, or reached base, all good outcomes. The bunt only provides one good outcome unless you happen to reach base.

This is why I dislike bunting in that particular situation. I'm not gonna go all MTS and start a "Fire Leyland" thread over it, but by and large, I hate giving the other team outs -- especially in high leverage situations like that.

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In baseball, as in life, you can have good effort and approach, and not get good results. It would be nice if we could see the results and then go back and change the approach. You can make a great pitch and give up a homer, and have a great swing and pop it up. If the Tigers play as well as they did yesterday all year, they'll win a lot more games than they lose.

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Dear New Tiger Fan Who Just Discovered the Team in 2006:

First of all, a belated welcome aboard. Between my busy work schedule and your scraping the Red Wings logos off your SUVs after you realized the Wings weren't going to win the Cup every year, we haven't had time to chat.

I'm happy to hear that you've replaced all your Red Wing merchandise with Tiger merchandise, and so is Mr. Ilitch.

But, judging from the radio call-ins yesterday after the game, and from some of the posts on this and other boards, it's apparant there are a lot of you newly-minted Tiger fans out there who don't understand much about the great game of base ball.

So I just wanted to let you know that these here baseball seasons last a long, long time, and you can't judge anything by one game.

I hope that helps, and if you get confused further, there are a lot of intelligent baseball fans on this board who will be happy to patiently explain the nuances of the game to you.

Now, New Tiger Fan, I know you think you already have this baseball-rooting thing down pat, but you really don't. It involves more than wearing a Tiger hat; sipping a foo-foo drink out of an elongated, overpriced plastic glass; yelling "go, Tigers!"; and whining after every little loss.

In baseball, it's best to take the long view. If the team is 20 games below .500 by the 4th of July, then it's time to worry.

On April Fools Day, it's probably too early to tell anything one way or another.

yeah, what he said.

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With Clete on third, the minimum requirement goes from a hit to a fly ball

And what percentage of batted balls result in a fly ball deep enough to score the runner? 15% or so? Probably much less than the chance of getting a hit if we had an extra AB.

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Let them panic. The ignore function is there for a reason. We shouldn't have to play teacher after every loss and explain why Renteria doesn't suck.

A wise comment.

I, too, didn't like the bunt, but I don't know Renteria. Looking at his numbers from last year, he struck out 77 times in 543 plate appearances, so he strikes out 14 per cent of the time. Inge struck out 26 per cent of the time last year. It may be that JL was afraid Inge would K in that situation, and Renteria would make contact with the infield drawn in.

I still don't think it was the optimum tactic, but I also recognize we would probably not be having this discussion if JL's tactic worked.

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But you have to factor in all the batted balls that don't score him as well. Must be a deep enough fly, or a ground ball to a few narrow portions of the infield. By not bunting, and preserving one out, your scoring chances improve overall.

I'm guessing that this can be, and has been statistically/mathematically analyzed. If so, I'd love to see it.

Comparing the relative likelihood of Renteria putting the ball deep enough into the outfield to score a runner of average speed from third, plus the likelihood of Polanco getting a hit if Renteria should (and did) fail, as compared to the relative difficulty of Inge getting a hit has to be, I would think, worth the one out we traded for that advantage.

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I'm guessing that this can be, and has been statistically/mathematically analyzed. If so, I'd love to see it.

Comparing the relative likelihood of Renteria putting the ball deep enough into the outfield to score a runner of average speed from third, plus the likelihood of Polanco getting a hit if Renteria should (and did) fail, as compared to the relative difficulty of Inge getting a hit has to be, I would think, worth the one out we traded for that advantage.

I agreed with the bunt call because Inge was up and he is a good bunter and strikes out alot. Even after Renteria struckout Polanco still had a 35% chance to tie the game based upon his batting average from last year (chance of error by Royals). The infield was halfway in against Renteria giving him an excellent chance to hit it by them.

The Tigers already had Magglio gunned down at home plate so they wanted Clete to be at 3rd base instead of 2nd.

In the end it may not have been the right call but I would hate to see Inge strikeout with a runner at 2nd and none out then see Renteria fly out to deep left for out number 2....that would be a pisser of a game to lose.

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I agreed with the bunt call because Inge was up and he is a good bunter and strikes out alot. Even after Renteria struckout Polanco still had a 35% chance to tie the game based upon his batting average from last year (chance of error by Royals). The infield was halfway in against Renteria giving him an excellent chance to hit it by them.

The Tigers already had Magglio gunned down at home plate so they wanted Clete to be at 3rd base instead of 2nd.

In the end it may not have been the right call but I would hate to see Inge strikeout with a runner at 2nd and none out then see Renteria fly out to deep left for out number 2....that would be a pisser of a game to lose.

Additionally, Polanco hit the ball hard, and Gordon made a very nice play. If that gets through this discussion has a much different tone, probably.

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If the whole season was based on opening days, Chris Pittaro would be in the Hall Of Fame. Remember, opening day 1985 he had 4 hits. He was out of the lineup by May.

Tuffy Rhodes would have a separate wing in that HOF.

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Tuffy Rhodes would have a separate wing in that HOF.

Da Meat Hook is a shoe-in for that one too.

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