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2006 AMATEUR DRAFT DIARY

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Is it really worth getting upset about? The draft is such a crapshoot. It seems like around half of the people here didn't want Verlander either. I know there are other reasons for that, but I have a hard time getting upset over the draft. I think there are a LOT of issues with all of these players that we're unaware of, such as injury concerns, work ethic, signability, etc. That's why prospects are so unpredictable to begin with. I want them to draft who they think best helps them. The only thing I'd get upset about is if they pass a guy just because they don't want to pay him.

Some risks are a little more than others. I think Miller is just as good stuff wise as Kershaw and is less risky. Miller doesn't have a clean delivery but Kershaw is a mess to me.

Miller has the same ceiling as Kershaw pretty much and is a safer bet to reach that ceiling. When that is the case you go with the safer bet. If they are passing on Miller it is due to financial concerns.

Stubbs is a risk as well but I would rather have him than Kershaw.

It is worth getting upset over if you think the team is making an obvious mistake. Draft decisions are what makes up the future of a franchise.

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If they pass on Miller it simply means they want to avoid another long negotiation.

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REMINDER

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If you look back 3 years, Miller's price tag out of high school was minimum of $3 Million. If he goes higher or has a similar price tag (as did Hochevar last year), the same fate could and might possibly await him. Dang, any team in the league will surely pay him 2+, so, why be such a hog with $$ demands. Once again, it looks like Miller (and his advisors) are his worse emeny!!!!!1

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If you look back 3 years, Miller's price tag out of high school was minimum of $3 Million. If he goes higher or has a similar price tag (as did Hochevar last year), the same fate could and might possibly await him. Dang, any team in the league will surely pay him 2+, so, why be such a hog with $$ demands. Once again, it looks like Miller (and his advisors) are his worse emeny!!!!!1

I couldn't disagree more. In an open market Miller would get 3 to 4 times the $2 million you suggest he should be content to take. This is Miller's only guaranteed pay day. He would be foolish to not hold out to make as much as possible, even under the anti-competitive draft system. The difference between $2 million and $5 million is HUGE.

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I couldn't disagree more. In an open market Miller would get 3 to 4 times the $2 million you suggest he should be content to take. This is Miller's only guaranteed pay day. He would be foolish to not hold out to make as much as possible, even under the anti-competitive draft system. The difference between $2 million and $5 million is HUGE.

That's short sighted. He'd be giving up more money by having to wait 3 more years to become arbitration eligilble, instead of being a free agent.

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I don't want to see the Tigers passing on Miller if he is there. They shouldn't pass on him to get Kershaw I know that much.

In his mock Kershaw is my least favorite option although I would rather have a Kershaw than Lincecum.

In my preferences the ranking would go:

1. Miller

2. Stubbs

3. Kershaw

152. Lincecum

If left with the options in that mock.

I agree with this 100%. DD has dealt with tough negotiations in the past with first rounders and has gotten the deal done, besides Miller has thrown quite a few innings and I wouldn't expect him to pitch much this year. He would have zero leverage next year if he went back into the draft and a history of high bonus demands. This is going to be a fun and crazy day!

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Miller isn't worth that money, or being picked that high in my opinion.

I think he is worth it. I like his stuff a lot especially that slider.

I don't know about the rumored 8 figure offering price (seems off to me)...

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THE Lefty bat to take in the second round would be Cody Johnson..........take Hochevar in the first, Johnson in the 2nd .......WOW !!

Was somewhat suprised Johnson lasted until 70 in e's mock draft on Sickel's website.

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WOW -- no mention on the fact that we could have easily had the 38th and 72nd picks had we kept Kyle Farnsworth for the remainder of the season?

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That's short sighted. He'd be giving up more money by having to wait 3 more years to become arbitration eligilble, instead of being a free agent.

No it isn't. Who is to say that he is going to be healthy long enough to make it to arbitration or free agency? And even if he does, who's to say that the net difference would be greater than the extra $3-4 million he is seeking today? Sure, it's possible that it might turn out to be a short sighted decision, but considering the road to a big MLB pay-day is littered with broken dreams and torn ligaments, that is a chance that any smart draftee has to be willing to take. Of course, the smaller the difference between the offer and the demand, the calculus might change. I wouldn't advocate sitting out over $50K or $100K.

This is a situation that the every day person can't relate to. Most of us will never see the kind of money these kids stand to make, and can't understand why $2 million isn't good enough. However, we also don't work in a system where you are forced to only negotiate with one employer, take it or leave it.

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REMINDER

In the midst of what promises to be a very informative and lengthy thread, please keep in mind MWG's recent announcement regarding posting of content from other web sites.

Please remember to include the links to any free content you post within this (or any) thread, and please refrain from posting premium content from any site. If you've got to pay to view it.....you can't post it for public consuption here.

Thanks for your efforts in complying with this.

Micro, while things are still relatively slow, has MWG received some guidance on the above issue? Has he been warned by MLB or some other publication? I do a fair share of web-posting, blogging, etc., and I'm always curious as to what the accepted guidelines are.

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Miller is being STUPID with his demands, ESPECIALLY since he's being consistently stupid. I think he's very good, but, my point is..........GET INTO PROFESSIONAL baseball. Don't hold out for the $4 or $5 you "think" you're worth, get signed, get into an organization and develop, dominate and demand more later. SURE, this is the only guarenteed $, but, what if Roger Clemens had held out for $ like that out of Texas ? Would he be able to demand the $22 Per he does now?

It's ALL somewhat of a gamble, but, I think realistic thoughts and expectations win out over "pie in the sky" numbers. After some point, it's just not worth it. Take the "reasonable" money and get on with your career..

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what if Roger Clemens had held out for $ like that out of Texas ? Would he be able to demand the $22 Per he does now?

I don't view this as a valid comparison. The fiscal climate of baseball today is incredibly different than that of Clemens' time.

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No it isn't. Who is to say that he is going to be healthy long enough to make it to arbitration or free agency? And even if he does, who's to say that the net difference would be greater than the extra $3-4 million he is seeking today? Sure, it's possible that it might turn out to be a short sighted decision, but considering the road to a big MLB pay-day is littered with broken dreams and torn ligaments, that is a chance that any smart draftee has to be willing to take. Of course, the smaller the difference between the offer and the demand, the calculus might change. I wouldn't advocate sitting out over $50K or $100K.

This is a situation that the every day person can't relate to. Most of us will never see the kind of money these kids stand to make, and can't understand why $2 million isn't good enough. However, we also don't work in a system where you are forced to only negotiate with one employer, take it or leave it.

Matt Harrington felt this way, also.

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RE: Johnson

I can't figure why he's droped so low. I don't know if it might be the same type $ demands or what. I've seen him probably 100 times and I've seen and coached other REAL hitters like Billy Butler. IMHO, Johnson is a superstar to be. His 6-4, 185 frame is built to add muscle and power. His bat speed is tremendous and he's ONLY 17 years old!! I think there is unlimited upside, AND he's a lefty bat !! I think he's one of those that come along once every 10 years or so, but, I must be WAY OFF as his slipping down that far has to be something I am missing. I am baffled by this one !! Any thoughts ?

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Matt Harrington felt this way, also.

As did Jared Weaver, JD Drew, and hell, even Cameron Maybin and Justin Verlander to a large extent.

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Was somewhat suprised Johnson lasted until 70 in e's mock draft on Sickel's website.

There are some holes in his swing. If he gets a hold of it he is going to knock it a country mile.... but there are some concerns whether he will get a hold of it enough against tougher pitching with wood.

Sidney N OK mentioned Lars Anderson. He is an interesting idea... I like his bat more than Johnson but I don't see him lasting to the second round.

WOW -- no mention on the fact that we could have easily had the 38th and 72nd picks had we kept Kyle Farnsworth for the remainder of the season?

I don't like to think about such things. They might not have offered him arbitration anyway. Think about if they were smart and offered Rondell White and Jason Johnson arbitration? If you include Farnsworth they possibly could have 6 extra picks in the first two rounds right there. Of course this draft is thin but still... you can take a ton of risks with that many picks.

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I have to ask, and give me a player ceiling comparison please, cause I am an idiot, and really, that's all I understand, but .. how good is Andrew Miller?

What's his ceiling, and better yet .. what do you project him as being ?

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Gotta run, we're representing 5 guys in the draft today and the office is calling....................

Have a GREAT Day guys, we'll be checking in during the draft "war room" at our office !!

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Matt Harrington felt this way, also.

So have many other players who went on to success. I fail to see how using the outlier to prove a point does anything to actually prove a point.

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I have to ask, and give me a player ceiling comparison please, cause I am an idiot, and really, that's all I understand, but .. how good is Andrew Miller?

What's his ceiling, and better yet .. what do you project him as being ?

His ceiling is a left handed ace. I think he has a shot at being one and I think he will be one as long as he stays healthy.

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I was reading the BA draft preview and thought DD might take a look at Bill Rowell, they had him ranked at 17 but a NL scout said he wasn't gonna make it past 10. Anyone have anything more on him? I was thinking it was going to be Morrow, Kershaw, Stubbs or Rowell. Dave doesn't seem to have anything against drafting high school players and it seemed Rowell has a higher ceiling than Stubbs and plays SS/3B even though they think he could move to the outfield.

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