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Take these as proposals if you want. The main reason for this is to see what types of deals we could make. For instance, how much would we need in return to trade Weaver...alot, I'd say two young, major league caliber players. Here I go:

Higginson:

For Nick Johnson and Ted Lilly(NY Yanks))

For Jay Payton and Kane Davis(NY Mets)

For John Halama and Antonio Perez(Seattle)not sure if Perez is the right name or if he is still projected that well.

For Placido Palanco and Bud Smith(St. Louis) this would be a steal...maybe we give them Weaver and get Pujols in return..yeah right.

Weaver:

For Mark Prior or Juan Cruz and Corey Patterson(Cubs)

For Brandon Lyon and Vernon Wells or Jose Cruz(Toronto)

For Austin Kearns and pitcher(Cincy) sorry dont know anyone else, maybe instead of pitcher give us that Gookie Dawkins guy.

Anderson:

For Doug Davis and Frank Cattalnotto(Texas)

For Mike Lowell and Vlad Nunez(Florida)

For Ainsworth and Feliz(San Fran)

For Alex Cora and Eric Gagne(LA)

Ship Meluskey back to Houston for either shortstop Julio Lugo or Adam Everett. :)

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Randy, you usually do much better work. Antonio Perez is a name that'll interest the Tigers, but Halama/Doug Davis/Lyon? Higginson is almost untradeable, so hitting the jackpot with Weaver/Anderson will be keys. I actually think the Rangers will think long and hard about a Weaver for Hank Blalock, provided the Tigers chip in a prospect (Munson?) or two. The Tigers must get impact players in these trades, or they're simply trading to make trades.

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Why is it that we put so much value on our own prospects, but so little on other teams.

Chicago is not going to trade Patterson AND Priot or Cruz (who is currently pitching better than Weaver I believe)

Cincinnati is not going to trade Kearns (who would instantly become the best hitter on our team if we got him) AND anyone.

The Dodgers are not going to trade Gagne for the chance to get a guy who might be as good as Gagne, but already costs more.

Feliz was on waivers earlier this year. IF we trade for him we are officially stupid. I like Ainsworth, and would take that deal, but it makes little sense to trade for a guy you could have had for free.

I like BUd Smith, but don't see any need to have Polanco on this team (unless we want to build the all utility team). I know you really like Polanco, MR, but I still have no idea why.

Weaver for Lyons and Wells or Cruz seems reasonable possibly, since Toronto has a glut of OF's.

Halama is terrible (check out his road numbers), but Perez is a very good prospect. I'd love to get him.

Cora and Everett are both terrible. We already have Everett actually. his name is Infante though, and he is younger and is a better hitter. IF we trade Meluskey for something like this it would be a complete waste of talent.

Davis and Cat for Anderson would be a steal, but Texas isn't gonna do it. Cat has to much value because of his verstility to trade for a closer (especially when retreads like Irabu do a perfectly acceptable job in the role).

Lowell has been one of the best 3B in the league this year, and has been above average his entire non-cancer recovery career. We won't be getting him for Anderson, much less him AND Nunez.

Any trade with the Mets is a bad one, because they have no prospect worth mentioning. Jay Payton, at his best, is an average CF. He isn't gonna be at his best often.

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Go to the Mariners or Yankees or Atalnta boards on ESPN. Places where Weaver is rumored to be going. The people on those boards pretty much feel taht Weaver is a good #3 starter. They say things like "he won't make the difference for us going to the WS" or "I'd love Colon, but we'll probably have to SETTLE for Weaver." Those were just two examples.

Tiger fans WAY over-value their prospects.

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There's also a risk of undervaluing the team's players. I generally agree with QS on most issues, but I do think he and our friends at some of the other teams' boards are undervaluing Weaver.

If Weaver pitched for a team that was on any sort of radar screen, he'd be praised as a comer--like Zito, Mulder, etc. He's top ten now in AL ERA, and it's hard not to think of him as a near 20 game winner on a good club even if he's pitching as he is now. At 25, with 3 years of experience under his belt, and a rubber arm, he's worth a fortune.

Austin Kearns is good, but I'd want more than him for Weaver. I see no point to such a trade--one for one--from the Tigers' standpoint. DET would be getting one potentially great corner OF for one potentially great SP, where the latter is much rarer than the former in today's game. OAK got a 1B of the Kearns variety this off-season for a bunch of middle level prospects. Weaver surely trumps the guys TEX got in that deal.

I'm not averse to trading Weaver if such a move improves the club, but I'd be severly disappointed if he's undersold. As I see it, Weaver is worth two top twenty prospects--two of players like Blalock, Phillips, Kearns, etc. The Tigers have no one in their system that even approaches Weaver in terms of talent, except maybe Wheatland, and if QS is right about Wheatland, trading Weaver would create a huge hole in the Tiger's future. If he got to go, it better be for a package that's pretty special. Again, there's no point to trading Weaver if it's one for one exchange; what DET gets has to fill multiple holes.

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A pitcher like Weaver might be more rare than a Kearns (that is still arguable though), but even if he is, Kearns is in his first year, is not arbitration eligble for a while, and is singificantly less likely to miss a long period of time due to injury in the next 3 years than Weaver.

From the Reds perspective, why trade Kearns, who is almost guaranteed to be an above average OF from now until he is arbitration eligible (and thus cost no more than whatever Cincy feels like paying him) for a pitcher who costs 22 million over 4 years no matter what happens to him. Weaver's always been in the 15-20 range of starting pitchers in the AL, and that is pitching in a park viewed by many as a huge pitchers park, on a level with Seattle's park. Is he really good? Sure. Is he an ace? Not yet. Are number 2 starters really harder to find than good OF?

Baugh approaches Weaver in terms of talent, but other than that I'd agree with your assesment of our minor league starters.

Also ESPN has Weaver 13th in the AL in ERA this year. There is no way Weaver is worth two top twenty prospects though. He might be worth one of them the the right team, in the right situation (ie a team with Rafael Palmerio and a glut of OF along with Carlos Pena) and that team might be Cincinnati.

But would you trade Kearns and Dunn for Weaver? If I had Kearns and Dunn I sure wouldn't.

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Originally posted by qsilvr2531

Chicago is not going to trade Patterson AND Priot or Cruz (who is currently pitching better than Weaver I believe)

Juan Cruz is 0-6, and while he may have a good ERA of 3.25, he also has walked 26 batters in 36 innings. Cruz is not working deep into games, thus increasing the workload of the Cubbies pen. Outpitching Weaver? I think not.

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Cruz isn't exaclty lightin people up I admit, but his 0-6 record is not a result of poor pitching, it's a result of no offensive support. Weaver has 19 K's in 46.2 IP, to go along with 14 BB's. While Cruz' 26/26 K/BB ratio, Cruz' K rate is better than Weaver's at the moment. If you look at the indicators for both pitchers, both are very likely to suffer a serious drop off soon. Weaver is pitching deep into games, which gives him an edge (a more sophisticated metrix, SNWAR (support neutral wins above replacement) ranks Weaver ahead of Cruz). But either way, why trade someone who is doing ALMOST as good as Weaver AND Patterson for Weaver, when Weaver cost 10 times as much as both players combined?

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The only point I was trying to make here was your proposition that Cruz was outpitching Weaver was shaky. I agree that the Weaver for Patterson and Cruz/Prior trade was very unrealistic. Like you I would trade Weaver for Kearns in a heartbeat.

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Originally posted by Todd

i think he was talking about prior

You can't compare Prior to Weaver, because Prior is still pitching in the minors. He was talking about Cruz.

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I was reading on ESPN somewhere that the Yankees have lost interest in Higginson. They're now shopping around in the Blue Jays outfield. From what I understand, they don't like the Shane Spencer/John Vanderwal platoon they've got going in left field, so it's unlikely they'll show interest in starting or closing pitching. Would you give up Mariano for Anderson? I did'nt think so...

But picking up Spencer or Vanderwal could be kind of intriguing if they were to be released by the yanks at some point. Rather have Spencer over Vanderwal, though. I'd pick Spencer up if he was available for cheap...

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I was talking about Cruz, jsut to clarify ( I thought using his name would take care of it but obviously not:) ) And I think I agreed that Cruz isn't necessarily outpitching Weaver (though a pitchers job is to prevent runs, and so far Cruz has done a better job than Weaver this year).

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Are number 2 starters really harder to find than good OF?

Yes Statboy, they are. Alot harder which is why Higginson(contrary to your beliefs) is very much tradeable. You seem to know alot, but why do you think you are the only person capable of evaluating prospects? Brandon Lyon is a young, talented pitcher who may not have broke through yet, but has alot of potential. He and one of their outfielders seems like a fine deal to me. Also note, I made sure in the introduction of my post that these were the types of deals(examples if you must) that would have to be made. Whether or not all these players are regarded as highly as they were maybe a year or so ago is arguable, but thats not the point. The tigers are not going to trade weaver strait up for an outfielder. If they needed an outfielder that bad then they wouldnt consider trading higginson. The point of these trades is to acquire a few young major league caliber players(they may not immediatly play at this level, but soon) who will help the team in the near future. The value of a Jeff Weaver is much higher than that of a corner outfielder, I dont care how old or talented the guy is with the exception of sosas, bonds, etc....

Cincy jumped at the opportunity to give Griffey the money, if they wanna win they better be able to pay for some pitchers. I also dont think anyone suggested Dunn and Kearns for Weaver, that would be dumb. I think Dunn is better than Kearns and have never mentioned trading Dunn. Teams are supposed to make trades by giving up some of their strength(or surplus) to improve on their weakness. Giving up one outfielder when you already have 4 outfielders, to get a starting pitcher is not a bad idea. Unfortunately one is Juan Encarnacion and we are not taking him back. You base your opinions on guys like Gagne from only a month of performance. He will not likely continue at that pace all season, at least not this season. Last statement: I project that Weaver's best years are ahead of him(eventhough he is already good) and that his performance will improve with run support and defense...that is why teams will trade for him.

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Cruzzer, I appreciate you saying that I usually do good work. I actually mistook some of your post for Q's and I apologize to both of you for that mistake. You seem to value position players over pitchers and I completely disagree with that. Which is why I consider Weaver to have the most trade value on the tigers. Higginson may be the best player, but he is just an outfielder(not even a great one). They are a dime a dozen. You suggested Weaver and Munson for Hank Blalock? Excuse me, but you dont trade an above average starting pitcher(the most skilled on your team) and a potential starting 1st baseman for a rookie 3rd baseman. I think you guys are criticizing my trade "proposals" way too much. I am not saying that they are all perfect trades and that one side isnt giving up too much, just that these are the types of deals that we will have to make: Two for one deals...the two being either prospects ready to step up and become major leaguers or already at the major league level. I have seen alot worse fantasy trades on these boards and these are definately more realistic. Your criticizms of my trades are better taken when you offer trade proposals in return, possibly just minor changes to mine, but instead my idea gets bashed. I'm sorry I dont have time to sit here researching player stats and scouting reports, all I use is whats in my mind and when it comes to baseball I trust that very much.

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My point is that the Tigers need to hit a "home run" with a trade; or not make one at all. I'm sure you realize Blalock is no ordinary rookie. That's the only type of deal I'd consider, and I think the Tigers HAVE to trade Munson, because he can't be sent to the minors next year (thanks to his major league contract). Remember, the Tigers don't have a glut of outfielders in their system, and lack mashers in general. That's why I'm getting the general feeling that's the area (and defense) that DD wants to upgrade the most. Rumors are the Tigers are talking with the White Sox. I'd tell them to make sure you include Joe Borchard before I even listen. The Tigers don't have to trade.

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Hey englishboy (best I coudl come up with that didn't involve actually calling you an insulting name), calm down. If I thought i was the only one who coudl evaluate prospects, I'd say, "quit evaluating prospects MR, you have no idea what you are tlaking about. Stop wasting my time." I haven't said that and I won't.

I think you overrated Weaver's value, or you underrate the value of a top prospect.

Rob Jones suggested Weaver was worth two top prospects, such as Blalock and kearns, etc. That is equivalent to Dunn and Kearns. And U yourself suggested Prior (or Cruz) and Patterson, which is also equivalent to Dunn and Kearns. While I am sure you feel Dunn is better than Kearns, you should remember that you are also not the only one who is allowed to evaluate prospects.

So you don't think Dunn or Kearns' or Pattersons' or Prior's or Cruz' or Gagne's best years are ahead of them?

Gagne came through the Dodgers system as a starter, still has the ability to pitch as a starter, has amazing stuff and has a good performance record behind him. Anderson came through our system as a reliever, will never start, and has mediocre performance record behind him. No one in their right mind would trade Anderson for Gagne AND something else usefull.

I'd like to see some evidence that good outfielders are harder to come by than good pitchers. I know I'm asking alot of you to actually back up what you say, but try to bear with me just this once. I do wonder that if good outfielders are a dime a dozen, why are we paying Higginson and Young all that money? And why do guys like Rondell White continue to make money?

If we make a 2-1 deal, it will be at the trading deadline, and the team we trade with won't be trading us a guy who is playing for them. They will be trying to win now, which means we get a guy or two who is a year away from the majors (for that team). Prior will be in the rotation this year. Patterson is the starting CF for the Cubs. Cruz is in the rotation. Gagne is LA's closer. Etc. Brandon Phillips is a possibility, if the Expos are still in contention in July. Possibly Wilson Betemit from the Braves if they having starting pitching problems at some point (not likely). Maybe Ty Howington and Ben Broussard of the Reds (though that deal doesn't make much sense for us). Those kinds of deals make sense, but why would a team trying to contend trade someone they are playing?

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Organizationally, I think we are actually quite weak in the OF. Higginson is pretty expensive and will not be a quality player at the end of his contract. Young is also overpriced, and Fick is miscast as an OF (though I do love his bat more every time I see or hear a game). We have no CF in the organization that is a sure fire major leaguer either. We only really have one with a shot at making it soon (Torres) and he has no power at all.

So, IMO, we need OF as much or more than we need pitchers. We have lots of them, and some will work out. Some won't, but who cares. It only take 3 to make a solid staff. 2 FA spots plus a bullpen made of guys with live arms is certainly reasonable.

I agree that Munson has to be dealt, but who is gonna take him? He's on the bench for us next year almost certainly unless he picks up his performance this year. We might be able to deal him to Pittsburgh, wince they aren't exactly loaded at 1B.

If the Tigers want to compete soon, they do have to trade. If they want to wait for the guys they have in the system, then they don't.

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The plain truth is that nobody here knows what they're talking about except me (now, if I knew how to do those smilie things, I'd stick one of them here: :D).

Some odds and ends:

1. I'll stick by statement that Weaver is worth two top prospects and I'll bet that the deal that eventually happens for him, assuming one does, goes down like that. Weaver is being severely undervalued on this message board, and I'll say again, a one-for-one deal involving Weaver for a talented young position player (insert favorite such player here ____) makes absoultely no sense from the Tigers' perspective and will not happen. The Tigers would have to get more than a Joe Borchard, an Austin Kearns, or a Brandon Phillips, otherwise they're just creating a hole to fill a hole. If Weaver goes, then it's got to be for at least two legitimate MLB talents. In that sense, I wholeheartedly agree with Motown Randy.

2. On the other hand, and to prove that I'm not a complete "homer," I don't think Anderson is worth much in trade--for all the obvious reasons: He's never posted really good numbers, he's got a bad arm, he's just a relief pitcher, etc. There 's no way on earth Anderson is worth any of the names that have been tossed about on this board. That doesn't mean, though, that such a trade can't be made to happen. There's always some Cam Bonifay-type out there.

3. My one flaw over the years (yes, just one) is that I tend to stick by people longer than they almost certainly deserve. I was that way with Smith, even though I violently disagreed with some of his moves, and I've been that way with some players, too (like Juan E.). That perhaps explains why I say now, I'm still not yet prepared to quit on Eric Munson (though I wouldn't be surprised if the current regime already has). Should the Tigers market him? Sure. That's what they need to do with all their players. But, he shouldn't just be given away for some stinker, not yet anyway, just because the Tigers have a lot of 1B types. He's begun to do the right things lately at Toledo--even a calous number-cruncher like QS (here goes again: :P ) had to like his 0 for 1, 4 BB game a few days ago--and it may just be that he's begun to figure this whole baseball thingy out. It's worth waiting a bit longer to see whether that's the case.

4. The Tigers OF situation is a mess. As I see it, they have one modestly legitimate talent there in the minors--Andres Torres--and he's hardly a sure thing. Cody Ross? Neil Jenkins? Nook Logan? Hmm. I don't think so. All of which means that they could sure use somebody like an Austin Kearns. If Brandon Phillips and Austin Kearns were in the same organization, then I could see something like Weaver and Infante for Kearns and Phillips materializing. That's a deal that would be fair to both teams.

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I think we are misunderstanding each other a little. I certainly don't think the Tigers would do a Kearns for Weaver straight up deal (though I think that deal would benefit the Tigers in the long run). They should get a Kearns type (though not Kearns himself beause it would make little sense for the Reds to trade him. Depth or no, he's the 3rd best OF they have, and should be starting for them every day) and someone else, but that someone else won't be a Brandon Phillips. No team trades two of the top twnety prospects in baseball away in one deal (at least not that I can think of). Maybe Arizona would if we offered them a lefty reliever, but other than that I don't see it happening. If we threw in an infante or a Munson that would change things, and we could possibly swing a Phillips and Kearns type deal (obviously not exactly that deal since they are on different teams).

I agree and disagree with you on Anderson. Value for Value, he's our best commodity if he gets healthy, because closers have a much higher perceived value than actual value. In terms of benefit to us, he's the best trade prospect we have. While dealing weaver has a good chance to blow up in our face, I can't envision losing anderson as ever really hurting us. He's destined to be a closer, which will make him overpriced if he is good, or he simply won't ever gain consistency. Either way, if we get a quality prospect for him we win.

Munson's problem isn't that he doesn't walk enough. It's that he doesn't hit enough to be a ML 1B. I can see him posting an .800 OPS in the majors at some point, which is pretty good, but there are lots of 1B out there that can do that for free. He has to hit for a much higher average, or a lot more power if he's gonna make it. the year is young though, so judging him by a slow start is a mistake.

I like Ross' potential more than torres'. Torres has speed and draws walks, but his total lack of power puts his ceiling at Juan Piere. Sounds good until you realise that that is his ceiling, and most likey we are talking Jason Tyner. Either way, our OF is very weak, and should be considered a organizational problem along with basically the entire offensive side of the ball. We have some upside, but no one who stands out as the guy in our system.

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Could Sparks bring a good third baseman and/or outfielder to Detroit?

Who would trade Sparks for Rolen?

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I can live with Torres and his ceiling better than Ross and his if Torres turns out to be the .400 OBP leadoff guy and CF whiz Smith's Tigers were counting on. Ross is a poor man's Higginson: worse K/BB splits, middling HRs and BAs, and so on, which simply won't cut it as a corner OF.

You may be right about Anderson and his perceived value. I'm educable, if nothing else, so while I wouldn't give much for him, I'll accept the idea that some goof would.

Call me a fool, but I'm still holding out hope that Munson can be a .290-40-120 kind of guy with 100 or so BBs. The next two months are critical for him and his future in the DET organization.

Maybe I have misunderstood your point on Weaver, and perhaps it's true that the Tigers can't get what they should for him. If so, then he should stay. He's one player who must be oversold; DD has to be wowed before peddling him.

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The real trick is gonna be the .290. If Munson hits .290, the rest of those numbers will come as he has to power and patience to do all of those things. But hitting .290 is harder than it sounds, and you're right, the next two months are critical for his future with us.

I trust young pitchers about as far as I can throw them. If someone offered me Kearns for Weaver straight up, I'd do it. And I very well might live to regret it. But honestly I don't think Weaver is going anywhere, because trading him only makes sense if you are sure you improve the future of the team, and I don't see any team with that kind of talent just lying around.

I disagree on Ross. He's in AA at 21, with solid across the board numbers. At the same age, Higginson was in junior college I think. If he can maintain his leve of performance for the next two years, while moving up to AAA, I'm guessing he has a long career in the bigs. Higginson was a rookie at the age of 25. Ross will be in AAA at the age of 22. That gives him 3 years to consolidate and develop in the high minors. Even if he falters this year a bit, he's got a good chance at being a solid major leaguer if he can recover next year.

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