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DTroppens

What makes a win streak good or great (tiger data)

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A few nights ago I was on the subject of win streaks. It must've been in a game thread but I can't recall which one. But it had to be because I was going to post some stuff I worked on that night but for some reason late at night I find my computer doesn't allow me to create new folders around here. I have no clue why as it never happens during the day.

Back to the subject. What I did was look for the Tigers longest win streak for many years to see if better teams really do have longer win streaks. You think they would because they won more games so even randomly more will come consecutively. And then I wanted to find out what could be considered a "good" win streak, an "average" win streak and an "outstanding" win streak. Is there really a number that we could label each of those terms. With limited data from just one team here's what I found.

1. Every team must win at least five in a row during a season at least once or be declared incompetent.

2. Every team SHOULD win six games in a row during a season.

Here's where it gets tough. Between 6 and 7 seems to be a huge obsticle.

3. Seven wins is a "good" win streak and if you win seven you have a good chance at making it eight.

4. Nine or more is great and really is an accomplishment.

I skipped 1990-92 because I started this during this era and then later decided to go back to the 80s so I don't have that stuff. Still I have most seasons since 1978.

Largest win streaks each season for the Tigers. If they had more than one of seven or more during a season I posted it.

1978 - 5

1979 - 6

1980 - 9

1981 - 9

1982 - 8/8

1983 - 6

1984 - 9/7/7/9

1985 - 6

1986 - 5

1987 - 6

1988 - 5

1989 - 7

1993 - 7

1994 - 4

1995 - 5

1996 - 6

1997 - 4

1998 - 4

1999 - 6

2000 - 6

2001 - 5

2002 - 6

2003 - 4

2004 - 6

As you can see we've been pretty pathetic in terms of our longest win streaks since 1994. We've never won seven straight in that period (not including the end of a season followed by the start of another season).

15/24 teams saw their best streak at 6 games. With that freqency that tells me you really should have one at this level during the season.

6/24 teams saw their best streak at 7. To see a the percentage drop from 62.5% to 25% would suggest that while holding a season-best six straight wins should be expected, getting seven is quite the leap and makes it quite an achievement.

From there the drop is hardly as severe. 4 teams won 8 or more - only two fall from the list. And from eight to nine only one team falls. Apparently it's double-digit win streaks that make a clearly special streak. The Tigers have never done it (unless they did it in those years I didn't check which is highly unlikely) since 1979.

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Originally posted by DTroppens

For someone that does not consider himself a stat guy I throw a lot of these out there don't I?

They didn't call you "Stats" in high school for nothing :cheeky:

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Good research, D.

Now can you tell me what is the longest winning streak in the club's history?:bandit:

(EDIT: I'll give ya a clue. It happened twice. The first time Hugh Jennings was manager. The next time Mickey Cochrane was managing.):classic:

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Tiger winning streaks for years you missed

1990 ...7

1991 ...7

1992 ...5

from www.baseball-reference.com

I have heard it is difficult to win 5 straight in the NFL. There are maybe 3 or 4 teams that will have 5 game winning streaks in the NFL every year.

Sweeps are rare in baseball so I can understand it being difficult to win 6 games in a row....your poor pitcher would have to pitch well enough to get the win in that span.

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Good research. From a probability standpoint, this would all make sense in that the better the team winning percentage, the better chances there are for a longer streak.

Just to put some math behind it, I used the binomial distribution to come up with this stuff. Below are the probabilities of the following winning streaks occurring at least once in a season given the winning percentage of the club

5 Game Streak:

.400 club- 80%

.500 club- 99.1%

.600 club - 100%

6 game streak

.400 club- 47.3%

.500 club- 91.4%

.600 club - 99.9%

7 game streak

.400 club- 22.4%

.500 club- 70.4%

.600 club - 98.8%

10 game streak

.400 club- 1.6%

.500 club- 13.8%

.600 club - 60.2%

What this shows, as well as DT work is that a 5-6 game win streak is pretty common-even for bad teams. Conversely, even good teams would be expected to have 5-6 game losing streaks.

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Just curious, what is our longest winning streak this year? Isn't it like 5 games? It seems that this year in particular that we win 1, lose 2, win 3, and then lose 2. We just play consistently inconsistent baseball.

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Yes, we had one 5 game win streak from April 22-29. Sandwiched in between that was 2 rain-outs and a snow-out.

WE did have a 4 gane win streak just before the ASB. If we had won that last game before the break we would have been .500

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billfer,

Yeah obviously the more wins you have the better chance of a long win streak. I mentioned that as well. However, I would've never guessed the pct differences from .400 to .500 in every case would've statistically come up to that much of a difference.

I think the reason this came up was I mentioned how many wins we'd need to get into the wild card spot and that we would need to take a run of 11 of 12 or 10 of 12 or something like that to really get there. Then I couldn't recall something like a 6 or 7 game streak in maybe a decade. Obviously my mind was pretty poor because there was one last year but then I wanted to see if I could find trends and stuff like that.

The one I found totally fastinating was the 1987 team. I think they won 98 games (off the top of my head) and they ended up starting 11-19. That means the team won 87 of its last 132 games. I thought there had to be a really long win streak in there but really there wasn't. That team broke all the probability marks. According to billfer's stats they broke a trend that should've occurred 98 percent of the time in terms of at least one seven-game win streak. They didn't have one! But the 1989, 90 and 91 teams did. Pretty funny stuff. What it means not really much but I found it pretty interesting.

BTW, the 1987 team did have a ton of 4 game win streak things like that. They had many times when they won 10 of 13 and things like that.

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Bump,

I am looking at old threads I started and saw this one. I should update it.

I just thought some people may find this interesting.

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Largest win streaks each season for the Tigers.

1978 - 5

1979 - 6

1980 - 9

1981 - 9

1982 - 8/8

1983 - 6

1984 - 9/7/7/9

1985 - 6

1986 - 5

1987 - 6

1988 - 5

1989 - 7

1990 - 7

1991 - 7

1992 - 5

1993 - 7

1994 - 4

1995 - 5

1996 - 6

1997 - 4

1998 - 4

1999 - 6

2000 - 6

2001 - 5

2002 - 6

2003 - 4

2004 - 6

2005 - 5

2006 - 8

2007 - 8

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I hate to ask what the Tiger's long loss streak are in that time period
Without looking and going back a few more years, I think the 1975 team lost 19 in a row.

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The best winning streak would be one that includes the Indians, White Sox, and Yankees. That's asking a lot, but that would be the ideal winning streak. Also, the toughest.

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