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IdahoBert

Kerry opens big lead among early voters

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The latest national numbers, courtesy of Josh Marshall:

The second national poll released Monday, the Marist poll, has Kerry up by one among likely voters (Kerry 49%, Bush 48%) and tied among registered voters (48%). All calls were made on Sunday.

The final Fox News poll -- with calls on Saturday and Sunday only -- has Kerry over Bush 48% to 46% among likely voters. Among registered voters it's Kerry 47%, Bush 45%. Among those who've already voted, it's Kerry 48%, Bush 43%.

Fox has been releasing not a tracking poll, but a new poll every day for the last four days: Friday, Bush +5; Saturday Bush +2; Sunday, tied; Monday, Kerry +2.

According to Gallup's mega-final-ultra poll out Sunday evening, 30% of registered voters in Florida have already voted, either through early voting or by absentee. Of those who have already voted, Kerry leads President Bush 51% to 43%. According to the Des Moines Register poll out late Saturday evening, 27% of Iowa adults have already voted. And among those Kerry leads 52% to 41%.

--From Salon (Nov.1)--

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Good news.

Looks like undecideds might be breaking 2-1 to the challenger, which is what usually happens this late.

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Originally posted by IdahoBert

Fox has been releasing not a tracking poll, but a new poll every day for the last four days: Friday, Bush +5; Saturday Bush +2; Sunday, tied; Monday, Kerry +2.

This late shift to Kerry is striking. It will ebb, but too late to affect the election. He's money!

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the media fed us a bogus poll on Florida before the polls closed their as well in 2000. I don't believe this poll for a minute.

Though I am sure most of the early voters were democrats in big cities which sponsored the early vote.... Iowa will be close but Florida will not be....Bush should win there by 2-3%.

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Originally posted by ToledoTigerFan

All of the official results posted above mean absolutely nothing. Two words.

Sample size.

30% and 27% are very large sample sizes. The question is not sample size but representation. Since they are not random samples, they are most likely biased in some way.

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Originally posted by Yoda

Big lead???

Yes it is a big lead. If those were random samples, we could declare Kerry the winner of Florida and Iowa. Since, we have no idea whether they are representative or not, we can not declare a victory at all. We do know that Kerry has a substantial head start going into the final 70% of the votes in those states. Realistically, that has to be viewed as a positive for Kerry supporters.

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All it is, is what it says. They've polled those casting early ballots and that's the result.

It might mean that the Democrats are really motivated and were delighted to vote first. It might mean, as LansingLugnut said, that these votes came from big cities. What it certainly means is that Bush has some huge ground to make up in Florida and Iowa with 31% and 27% of the votes already cast.

If I were a Republican in these states and was thinking of not getting to the polls tomorrow, this would certainly inspire me to get there.

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Originally posted by IdahoBert

If I were a Republican in these states and was thinking of not getting to the polls tomorrow, this would certainly inspire me to get there.

sshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh !

No need to rush to the polls tomorrow, Repubs...... haven't you heard?

You guys don't have to go to the polls until Wed Nov 3rd.

:classic:

Relax.

Plenty of time. :cheeky:

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Originally posted by smr-nj

sshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh !

No need to rush to the polls tomorrow, Repubs...... haven't you heard?

You guys don't have to go to the polls until Wed Nov 3rd.

:classic:

Relax.

Plenty of time. :cheeky:

I know you are kidding but in all seriousness.....this is a violation of election law to state such things. Seriously.

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Drew Carey:

"****.... I was supposed to vote today? I thought it was Super Wednesday. Shut up Mom..... I'll get a job tomorrow"

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Originally posted by Biff Mayhem

I know you are kidding but in all seriousness.....this is a violation of election law to state such things. Seriously.

So, arrest me, Captain America.

lmao.

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Originally posted by smr-nj

So, arrest me, Captain America.

lmao.

I am a poll challenger....perhaps I can arrange something painful for you. :cool:

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Originally posted by Biff Mayhem

I am a poll challenger....

Why bring ethnicity into this?

:classic:

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Originally posted by smr-nj

Why bring ethnicity into this?

:classic:

That is the same thing a guy I work with said. He's an idiot too. Maybe you know him?

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Originally posted by IdahoBert

According to Gallup's mega-final-ultra poll out Sunday evening, 30% of registered voters in Florida have already voted, either through early voting or by absentee. Of those who have already voted, Kerry leads President Bush 51% to 43%. According to the Des Moines Register poll out late Saturday evening, 27% of Iowa adults have already voted. And among those Kerry leads 52% to 41%.

--From Salon (Nov.1)--

It's funny that you don't mention the internals of this poll. The Des Moines Register polled 90 people who had voted early. That means Kerry has a lead of 47 to 37 in Iowa. That's a whopping lead of 10 whole votes. I can name you ten Iowans who will be voting tomorrow morning for GWB. In Florida, the sample of "early" voters was about 150. That gives Kerry a huge early lead of 77 to 64. That is an insurmountable lead of 13 votes.

Not to mention that the margain of error in such a small sample is likely upwards of 8%.

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Originally posted by Mark The Shark

It's funny that you don't mention the internals of this poll. The Des Moines Register polled 90 people who had voted early. That means Kerry has a lead of 47 to 37 in Iowa. That's a whopping lead of 10 whole votes. I can name you ten Iowans who will be voting tomorrow morning for GWB. In Florida, the sample of "early" voters was about 150. That gives Kerry a huge early lead of 77 to 64. That is an insurmountable lead of 13 votes.

Not to mention that the margain of error in such a small sample is likely upwards of 8%.

Where did you get that? I went to the Des Moines paper and it gave the margin of error for the poll of 3.5%. It sounds like they did a poll for both who the Iowans are planning to vote for and within that poll who already voted (and that is was way more people than you gave). I may be wrong, because I don't have enough time to look it over more clearly, but I am wondering where you got your info.

Here is the link I was talking about

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041030/NEWS09/41030009/1001&lead=1

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Originally posted by tigersrok

Where did you get that? I went to the Des Moines paper and it gave the margin of error for the poll of 3.5%. It sounds like they did a poll for both who the Iowans are planning to vote for and within that poll who already voted (and that is was way more people than you gave). I may be wrong, because I don't have enough time to look it over more clearly, but I am wondering where you got your info.

Here is the link I was talking about

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041030/NEWS09/41030009/1001&lead=1

I actually slightly messed up the math, but the point remains valid. The total number of persons surveyed in the poll was 806 Iowans. Of that number, 218 had voted already, which is 27% of the survey. (Actually, 27% would be 217.62). Anyone with even a passing familiarity with statistics will tell you this is too small a sample to get any sort of accurate poll result from. Anyway, of those 218 voters, 111 of them support Kerry and 89 support Bush. That is a lead of just 22 votes. Again, I know more people in Iowa that are voting for Bush than this statistically insignificant number.

Now, in Florida, Gallup did a survey of 1,138 voters. 341 of them reported that they voted early, which is about 30%. Again, this is not a large enough sample to do a valid survey from. Also note that this number is likely scewed, as I doubt Gallup was able to reach the thousands of military voters who are out of the country and vote absentee. Anyway, of those 341 voters, Kerry has 174 votes to President Bush's 147. That's a grand total of 27 votes. I'm willing to bet that there are at least 27 more military absentee votes for Bush than Kerry.

You can find the Florida numbers here.

Therefore, the much ballyhood "early lead" for John Kerry is a mere 49 votes. Which, subtracted from military voters in Flordia and my friends alone in Iowa totally evaporates.

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I forgot about the national numbers. The Fox News poll was of 1,200 voters. 324 reported that they had already voted (27%). Again, this sample is not representative because its too small. Of that number, John Kerry had 156 votes to 139 for President Bush. Assuming that there are 105 million voters in this election, this lead represents .00000002% of the voting population. Fox Poll internals are here.

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Statistically those numbers aren't as insignificant as you think. However, what makes these early numbers useless is that it doesn't matter what the count is, it only matters why certain people are voting early. If a Bush supporter is just as likely to vote early as a Kerry supporter than I think these numbers are very significant. However, if, as I suspect, Kerry supporters are much more likely to go to the polls early then these numbers mean nothing.

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do they factor in the lying account? If I ever got called for a poll I would lie through my teeth.

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