Jump to content

Sign in to follow this  
baseballbruce30

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004

Recommended Posts


A note from the Votemaster at that electoral-vote.com site--

I will stay up all night election night and update the site in real time. I am NOT promising to stay up until we know who the president is. I would definitely like to go to bed sometime during the month of October.

Can you really trust a guy who doesn't even realize the election is in November?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

maybe he meant next October.

I think I'm going to avoid any news at all until 8 pm tomorrow, then I'll turn it on MSNBC and see what they say.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Originally posted by baseballbruce30

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 298 Bush 231

This site is real busy ...

"Kerry 304

Bush 234

Kerry gets Florida and Ohio and seals the deal.

Kerry wins the popular vote by 1-2%"

Sounds about right....:classic:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everything is looking good for a Kerry win in my opinion, the fact that this election is tied among decided "likely voters." I think the "unlikely voters," college kids like me, minorities who have never voted before etc. will swing heavily Kerry. I also think he'll get more of the vote that is currently undecided.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Originally posted by Buddha

"Kerry 304

Bush 234

Kerry gets Florida and Ohio and seals the deal.

Kerry wins the popular vote by 1-2%"

Sounds about right....:classic:

At this point it is Wisconsin and Iowa that could tip the scales to Bush. If Bush gets Florida and these two it doesn't matter what Ohio and Pennsylvania do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Originally posted by baseballbruce30

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 298 Bush 231

This site is real busy ...

I had been following this one, but it has some problems. It blindly takes the latest poll for each state without considering a bigger picture.

I have found this one (posted already by estrepe) to be more detailed and reasoned.

dalythoughts

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Originally posted by TigerCap

I had been following this one, but it has some problems. It blindly takes the latest poll for each state without considering a bigger picture.

This guy works off Zogby and Gallup. ..His preference for some reason. But he also has a link for "Averaged Polls" that give Bush the lead.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/nov01z.html

Just two days ago his average of Zogby and Gallup gave Bush a similar lead. Kerry is showing late strength in all the polls including his. "Big Mo" seems to be on Kerry's side.

Here's another interesting tidbit from his recap for today as well:

“As I have discussed repeatedly, normally people with a cell phone but no landline are not polled. Most of these are in the 18-29 year old group. Up until now, no one has known how their absence from the polling data might affect the results. Zogby has now conducted a very large (N = 6039) poll exclusively on cell phones using SMS messaging to get a feeling of how they will vote. The results are that they go strongly for Kerry, 55% to 40%, with a margin of error of only 1.2%. If they all vote tomorrow, the pollsters are going to spend the rest of the week wiping egg from their faces. But historically, younger voters have a miserable turnout record, so the pollsters need not yet stock up on paper towels.”

People who have never voted are coming out in droves this year. The absentee lines where I live in Boise, Idaho are enormous. Two and three-hour waits when you can usually just walk right in. A local reporter there questioned 50 people who had never voted before and asked who they were voting for. It was 52-48 for Bush. Impressive for Kerry given that Idaho is a state where 67% are going for Bush already. What this tells me is that people who usually don't vote are going for Kerry in much higher numbers elsewhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Originally posted by tigersrok

Everything is looking good for a Kerry win in my opinion, the fact that this election is tied among decided "likely voters." I think the "unlikely voters," college kids like me, minorities who have never voted before etc. will swing heavily Kerry. I also think he'll get more of the vote that is currently undecided.

That is an assumption on your part. A lot of my friends are republican, first time voters in college. I am not going to come close to assuming that every college student is like that but there are more conservatives in college than you are making out, Kerry will not get a heavy swing from the youth.

Overall its really hard to predict which way it will go. I think you are assuming too much saying that the undecided will go with Kerry, really no one knows which way they will go. A lot of them may not even vote.

Really I think that this will be a close election at this point.

I got a USA today paper and according to the Gallop poll. A lot of states that Gore won in 2000 are close this year like New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Hawaii.

Same with Bush with Florida, Colorado, Ohio, and Nevada.

Depending on which way these states go the electoral college could make a close election look like a landslide for either side.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Originally posted by estrepe1

That is an assumption on your part. A lot of my friends are republican, first time voters in college. I am not going to come close to assuming that every college student is like that but there are more conservatives in college than you are making out, Kerry will not get a heavy swing from the youth.

Overall its really hard to predict which way it will go. I think you are assuming too much saying that the undecided will go with Kerry, really no one knows which way they will go. A lot of them may not even vote.

Really I think that this will be a close election at this point.

You are in Virginia, so I'm not surprised. I am in Ann Arbor and here it is heavily Kerry. And really, it is only the swing states where the college vote will count.

There are various links that indicate students, people not termed a likely voter, and people with only cell phones that are not polled all favor Kerry by a pretty good margin. It's not an assumption. There's an article about people with cell phones favoring Kerry 55% to 40% on that link to the website you posted in this thead just looking at today's information.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Originally posted by tigersrok

You are in Virginia, so I'm not surprised. I am in Ann Arbor and here it is heavily Kerry. And really, it is only the swing states where the college vote will count.

There are various links that indicate students, people not termed a likely voter, and people with only cell phones that are not polled all favor Kerry by a pretty good margin. It's not an assumption. There's an article about people with cell phones favoring Kerry 55% to 40% on that link to the website you posted in this thead just looking at today's information.

Those same students were supposed to turn out heavily for Howard Dean in the primary, too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with what you are saying that a lot of college students are for Kerry however it is an assumption that all of those that are undecided and not likely voters will show up to vote tomorrow. I thought you were assuming too much by saying that Kerry will win a lot of the undecideds. There is no concrete evidence that will happen.

Voter turnout from our age group (assuming that you are in the 18-30 range is usually pretty low. We will see I will not be shocked if Kerry wins and I will not be shocked if Bush wins. I really think its too close to call one way or the other right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Originally posted by tigersrok

You are in Virginia, so I'm not surprised. I am in Ann Arbor and here it is heavily Kerry. And really, it is only the swing states where the college vote will count.

There are various links that indicate students, people not termed a likely voter, and people with only cell phones that are not polled all favor Kerry by a pretty good margin. It's not an assumption. There's an article about people with cell phones favoring Kerry 55% to 40% on that link to the website you posted in this thead just looking at today's information.

your assuming that the student are voting in the state of Michigan ....... alot of U of M student arent from Michigan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Originally posted by Todd

your assuming that the student are voting in the state of Michigan ....... alot of U of M student arent from Michigan

They're fools not to, unless they are from Ohio, Penn, Wisc., Fla or Iowa. And the one thing we know about U of M students is that they aren't stupid.:classic:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was just watching Fox news, and they quoted a zogby poll of voters 18-29. It was 64-35 Kerry, with one percent for Nader.

Zero percent undecided. The pollster said that a low number of undecideds means a motivated population.

So, he speculated huge advantages for Kerry amongst young people.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Originally posted by estrepe1

I agree with what you are saying that a lot of college students are for Kerry however it is an assumption that all of those that are undecided and not likely voters will show up to vote tomorrow. I thought you were assuming too much by saying that Kerry will win a lot of the undecideds. There is no concrete evidence that will happen.

Voter turnout from our age group (assuming that you are in the 18-30 range is usually pretty low. We will see I will not be shocked if Kerry wins and I will not be shocked if Bush wins. I really think its too close to call one way or the other right now.

Past voting patterns indicate that the undecideds will go for the challenger. Will that happen tomorrow? I don't know. But by past information, Kerry will win a lot more of the undecided vote than Bush.

I know our age group has a poor voter turnout. What I am saying is that in races that are tied and too close to call among "likely voters", the college kids can make the difference (and has been posted before, our age group leans heavily Kerry).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Check this out. It's the "animated electoral map" for the website at the beginning of this thread. Don't pay attention to the states changing color; it's boring and hard to follow. Look at the bar graph in the lower right hand corner of the map as it tracks the daily ups and downs of the electoral vote tally from May 24 to today. The upswings tend to last a few days and Kerry is on the upswing right now. He could crest and go down in a couple days but the election is tomorrow. I think he's won...Wouldn't bet the lives of my children on it but almost...

http://electoral-vote.caida.org/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Originally posted by Mark The Shark

Those same students were supposed to turn out heavily for Howard Dean in the primary, too.

Gee, I think the actual election has a lot more significance and reason to turn out.

Regardless, I wasn't even predicting a large voter turn out from students. I am saying that in the swing states where the vote is bascially tied, students and other people termed unlikely voters, who lean Kerry, can make the difference.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Originally posted by DetroitFolly

I was just watching Fox news, and they quoted a zogby poll of voters 18-29. It was 64-35 Kerry, with one percent for Nader.

Zero percent undecided. The pollster said that a low number of undecideds means a motivated population.

So, he speculated huge advantages for Kerry amongst young people.

And this coming from a conservative news source....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

they will all get high tonight and forget to vote.

Or maybe it will rain or something.

I don't buy the recent upswing for Kerry because he always gets one on the weekend. It seems the last month has had that occur on Monday's polls.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is going to be interesting to see what happens. Like I said I am not going to be suprised either way, I think its going to be a tight one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

Motown Sports Blog



  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      96,815
    • Total Posts
      3,020,499
  • Who's Online (See full list)

  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
×
×
  • Create New...