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.500+ team?

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All that I am saying is...is that there would be a few games in which we had one run leads with Matt Anderson pitching the 9th. I am also saying that, as we all know, Matt would have blown a few of those along the way -- where Urbina would have simply got the save. That is a win over a loss, is it not? I'm not saying Urbina is that good...I'm simply saying that Matt Anderson is that bad. That Urbina is better than anyone we had/have.

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Originally posted by JonBenke

All that I am saying is...is that there would be a few games in which we had one run leads with Matt Anderson pitching the 9th. I am also saying that, as we all know, Matt would have blown a few of those along the way -- where Urbina would have simply got the save. That is a win over a loss, is it not? I'm not saying Urbina is that good...I'm simply saying that Matt Anderson is that bad. That Urbina is better than anyone we had/have.

Exactly the point I was trying to make.

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Originally posted by JonBenke

All that I am saying is...is that there would be a few games in which we had one run leads with Matt Anderson pitching the 9th. I am also saying that, as we all know, Matt would have blown a few of those along the way -- where Urbina would have simply got the save. That is a win over a loss, is it not? I'm not saying Urbina is that good...I'm simply saying that Matt Anderson is that bad. That Urbina is better than anyone we had/have.

And there would also quite possbily be situations of just the contrary where Matt would have saved the game and Urbina blown it. The boat floats both ways on that argument.

Also, while a save, by definition, implies a win, that is not how you define contributing a win to the team. It is much more complicated than that, something which LTW or Q could probably explain in a more clear manner. What it boils down to though is that a save would account for a fraction of a win over the course of a season. Therefore, Urbina could add an additional couple of wins when you add all those fractions up, but him contributing 5 wins on his own merit is highly unlikely....

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Originally posted by lionstigersand...

so do some individuals think that one save is equivalent to one team win???

I think the team win thing is tricky. A closer obviously is not responsible for a win by himself and is far less responsible than a starting pitcher who goes 7 innings. I think what people are trying to say is given that the starting pitchers and hitters put the closer in a postion to finish off the game, will Urbina be successful 5 more times than an other Tiger closer would be ?

Suppose Urbina has 40 save situations and saves 34 games. If another pitcher or group of pitchers would have saved only 29 of those 40 games then that's 5 victories they gain that they wouldn't have had without Urbina. I think blown saves are less common than most people think but I also believe Urbina, in a good year, could possibly save 5 more games than a crappy closer. I may be giving closers too much credit here though. I'm not sure.

These are not "team wins" obviously. Maybe conditional wins ? Can Urbina get them an additional 5 conditional wins ?

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Originally posted by tiger337

Can Urbina get them an additional 5 conditional wins ?

I beleive he can. We'll see.

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and their is no way Urbina is worth 5 extra wins for this team.

QS, I disagree. Urbina saving a couple of games early that maybe another guy would blow could allow this team to get some confidence and win a lot more games (maybe a lot more than 5).

I remember a couple seasons where Todd Jones blew games early (in the first 5 games of the year) and the team never bounced back and had miserable years.

It's impossible to quantify exactly how many games a reliable closer is worth but I think it's pretty obvious it's a very important factor towards a team winning alot of games.

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QS, I'll take a couple stats classes if you take a couple psychology courses.

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Originally posted by jake

QS, I disagree. Urbina saving a couple of games early that maybe another guy would blow could allow this team to get some confidence and win a lot more games (maybe a lot more than 5).

I remember a couple seasons where Todd Jones blew games early (in the first 5 games of the year) and the team never bounced back and had miserable years.

It's impossible to quantify exactly how many games a reliable closer is worth but I think it's pretty obvious it's a very important factor towards a team winning alot of games.

I don't think any of this is obvious at all. For instance, I don't think the Todd Jones teams were very good anyway and wouldn't have been helped that much by a better reliever. It's certainly possible though that some relievers on some teams have the kind of psychological impact you are talking about. It's something you can't really prove or disprove.

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Originally posted by tiger337

Suppose Urbina has 40 save situations and saves 34 games. If another pitcher or group of pitchers would have saved only 29 of those 40 games then that's 5 victories they gain that they wouldn't have had without Urbina. I think blown saves are less common than most people think but I also believe Urbina, in a good year, could possibly save 5 more games than a crappy closer. I may be giving closers too much credit here though. I'm not sure.

These are not "team wins" obviously. Maybe conditional wins ? Can Urbina get them an additional 5 conditional wins ?

It's possible. However, it's also possible that someone who stinks, like Rocky Biddle can get you the exact same number of wins.

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QS, I'll take a couple stats classes if you take a couple psychology courses.

Taken six of them. Let me know when you're finished with your math minor. :)

Urbina saving a couple of games early that maybe another guy would blow could allow this team to get some confidence and win a lot more games (maybe a lot more than 5).

Unless of course that other guy doesn't blow those saves. Then we get the confidence either way. Or what if Urbina blows his saves early (ala Foulke two years ago, who is a much better pitcher than Urbina)? The confidence issue is dicey at best, and there really isn't any evidence that winning (or losing) close games impacts the immediate future preformance of the team. Then again, I know jake feels that a great defensive play makes an offense better, so I'm fairly certain we are just going to have t o accept that we don't agree on this one.

It's impossible to quantify exactly how many games a reliable closer is worth but I think it's pretty obvious it's a very important factor towards a team winning alot of games.

I disagree that it's impossible to quantify, and I agree that it's a very important factor. I think the idea that an average closer like Urbina is worth 5 more wins than a replacement level closer (like Rodney or Walker or Patterson or whoever would fill the job for us would be. Let's remember that Matt Anderson was never in the plans as our closer, even before Urbina signed) is a huge stretch.

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As far as the closer effect, if we discount the possible psychological effects, which I will concede can't be quantified (though I won't concede the effect is automatically positive), the average save percentage for pitchers with more than 20 saves last year was 85.7% (Urbina was slightly below average, though part of that can probably be attributed to his not being a closer in Fla. His career SV% is 84.8). So if we assume Urbina is going to perform at his career level, and that the Tigers will have 45 "closer" save opportunities (ie save opportunities that are available to the closer), then we have to assume that whatever closer Urbina replaced would have to have a save percentage around 73.7 (this assumes that blown saves that don't result in losses are canceled out by new save opportunities gained by getting a new setup man). Jose Mesa and Mike Williams both had ERA's above 6 and managed SV% higher than this.

I also want to be clear that I think Urbina is a very good pitcher, and I'm glad we got him, I just think 5 games is alot for any player, and I don't think one relief pitcher is going to have that significant an impact on the team, unless that relief pitcher is excellent. Also, ff Urbina pitches like he did in Florida I do think he'll be worth 5 extra wins. If he pitches like he has his entire career, he won't be.

It's also possible I'm giving the guys we would have had in our bullpen to much credit. It certainly is possible that Urbina is worth 5 wins if those guys are bad enough.

I remember a couple seasons where Todd Jones blew games early (in the first 5 games of the year) and the team never bounced back and had miserable years.

I remember those seasons to, but I also remember thinking the team wasn't going to be that good going into the year. I think it's very possible that the team didn't recover because they simply weren't very good (Todd Jones included).

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Another way to put it is how many total games do you think the Tigers will win this year with Urbina ?

How many total games do you think the Tigers would have won without Urbina ?

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With Urbina, I think the Tigers will win between 65-75 games. Without him I think the Tigers will win 65-75 games, but I think the distribution of the potential win totals is more scewed towards the 75 with Urbina than without him (say the average with Urbina is closer to 72, whereas without him it's clsoer to 70).

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Originally posted by tigersrok

Actually, Posada had never been more productive than IRod until last season

Posada OPS+

1996 -46

1997 102

1998 114

1999 97

2000 134

2001 119

2002 123

2003 146

Rodriguez OPS+

1996 104

1997 114

1998 120

1999 125

2000 152

2001 130

2002 123

2003 124

So Posada has one career year and all of the sudden he's a better hitter than IRod? There's so much talk about IRod declining because of his age, but what about Posada? He's older than IRod, so shouldn't he decline faster?

Good stat. Also dont forget last year was Pudges 1st in the NL where there is no DH and he hadnt faced many of the pitchers yet still hit .297 which was a career low. Pencil him in for .310 and work up from there.

I am geeked!

This is the Tigers best hitter since ...since...well he is probably a little better than Trammell . Perhaps we would have to go back to Al Kaline to find a better Tigers hitter.

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QS, I had a 30 on my ACT in math. And I can multiply 3 and 2 digit numbers together and come up with the correct answer within a matter of seconds. I can also count cards at the black jack table like nobody's business. But I cannot figure out what the heck you guys are talking about half the time, that's for sure.

Plus, I got a C in my stats class in college.

That isn't an extensive enough background?:classic:

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Originally posted by LansingLugnut

Good stat. Also dont forget last year was Pudges 1st in the NL where there is no DH and he hadnt faced many of the pitchers yet still hit .297 which was a career low. Pencil him in for .310 and work up from there.

I love IRod, but there is a trend here. He slowly climbed to a peak and has declined the next three years.

Don't get me wrong. He is still one of the best hitters at catcher, but I don't expect him to be at his peak anymore.

Rather have IRod on the downslide than just about anybody else though. He is an all around player and now leader. His clubhouse presence alone will make this team better.

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Originally posted by Moonlight Graham

lol

Hey Moonlight!

I just watched Field of Dreams for the 1st time a couple nights ago. My mother-in-law bought it for me a couple Christmases ago but I just got around to watching it Sunday.

Great movie. And now I finally understand why you use your screenname.

Archibald Wright Graham

"Moonlight Graham"

Archibald Wright Graham

"Moonlight Graham"

Born: November 9, 1879, Fayetteville, North Carolina.

Died: Aug. 25, 1965, Chisholm, Minnesota

Biography

Following a highly successful minor league career with the Charlotte Hornets of North Carolina League, Archibald Wright Graham made his major league debut on June 29, 1905, with the New York Giants. It was the same day he retired from professional baseball. With a ten run lead over the Brooklyn Dodgers after eight innings, Giant manager John McGraw made a defensive change, replacing George Brown with "Moonlight" Graham in right field. In less than -FlVE-minutes, three quick infield outs by the Dodgers ended the game, along with Graham's only chance to face a big league pitcher.

While the Giants went on to defeat the Philadelphia Athletics four games to one in the 1905 World Series, Graham left baseball to fulfill his dream of becoming a medical doctor, eventually pursuing his life's work in Chisholm, Minnesota, the year following the Great Chisholm fire of 1908. "Doc" Graham spent his first six years practicing medicine at Chisholm's Rood Hospital and the next 44(!) years as physician for the Chisholm schools, where he gained national recognition for his thirteen year study of children's blood pressure, as well as the love and respect of the entire Chisholm community.

Moonlight Graham finally did get his time at bat in the 1989 motion picture Field of Dreams. Facing Chicago White Sox pitcher Eddie Cicotte (play by actor Steve Eastin), the young Archie Graham (Frank Whaley) drove in a run by slapping a sacrifice fly to right field.

But earlier in the film when Ray Kinslla (Kevin Costner) commented that the baseball career and lifelong dream of Moonlight Graham (Burt Lancaster) had lasted only five minutes and would be considered a tragedy by many people, Doc Graham replied, "Son, if I'd only got to be a doctor for five minutes, now that would have been a tragedy."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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