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Mr.TaterSalad

Matt Patricia/Bob Quinn fired - Holmes/Cambell Hired as GM/Coach

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My philosophy on drafting is that you have to rank and draft players by tiers not necessarily just standard rankings and also need to take into account the depth of that position.

For instance let's say you have the top 3 WR rated at 92-95 then the next tier of say 6 guys at 87-90 then another 6 guys at 82-85.

Now on the other hand you have 1 DE at 87 and the next tier starts at 82 with only a few guys there. 

If the top 3 WRs are gone at my pick I wouldn't take the 4th WR over that DE even if he was at the top of my board cause you are very likely to get a similar player in the 2nd round.   

 

 

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I think the Lions will be better than what the National pundits and some fans think.   I saw that ESPN's experts almost unanimously picked them to pick 1st next draft and barring the coaching staff being horrendous I just don't see it.

The lazy reasoning for them is that they weren't good last year and downgraded at QB so they're going to be that much worse this year.   I think that is a lazy way to look at it.  Yes Stafford is better than Goff but Stafford wasn't that good for us last year.   

We won 5 games last year with a terrible coaching staff, some key injuries and Staff being merely average.  I think the improvement im coaching should offset any downgrade that Goff gives us over what Staff did LAST YEAR.  That doesn't account for guys like Swift and Okudah progressing or perhaps a full season of Golladay.   I personally see them more in the 5 to 6 win range which is bad but not number 1 pick bad.

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It’s fun to kick some ideas around right now but I really hope nobody is married to their predictions for next year.    This roster is in complete flux at the moment.  Okudah is the only starter on defense that I’m sure will be back.   Collins and Flowers seem likely due to contract as does Walker who is still under his rookie deal.   I have no clue about the rest or who would replace them.   Offense looks much better but nobody knows what they will choose to do with Kenny.   Also, based on the history of this franchise, I’d be shocked if Swift didn’t either suffer a terrible injury or catch a bad case of the fumbles.   It’s what happens here after a promising rookie season.   

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3 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

I think the Lions will be better than what the National pundits and some fans think.   I saw that ESPN's experts almost unanimously picked them to pick 1st next draft and barring the coaching staff being horrendous I just don't see it.

The lazy reasoning for them is that they weren't good last year and downgraded at QB so they're going to be that much worse this year.   I think that is a lazy way to look at it.  Yes Stafford is better than Goff but Stafford wasn't that good for us last year.   

We won 5 games last year with a terrible coaching staff, some key injuries and Staff being merely average.  I think the improvement im coaching should offset any downgrade that Goff gives us over what Staff did LAST YEAR.  That doesn't account for guys like Swift and Okudah progressing or perhaps a full season of Golladay.   I personally see them more in the 5 to 6 win range which is bad but not number 1 pick bad.

I could easily seem them having no. 1. 

Let's be honest we are going from Stafford to a QB who got benched last year. WHether you agree with that decision or not is irrelevant. He was benched for an UDFA. 

The defense was god awful. Like worse than 0-16 awful. 

We don't have much to spend

New coaching staff, rookies aren't a guarenttee and no offseason program. 

That could easily become a 2-14 season without much work. 

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3 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

... That could easily become a 2-14 season without much work. 

Yeah, I don't see the new coaching staff letting that happen.

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7 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

I could easily seem them having no. 1. 

Let's be honest we are going from Stafford to a QB who got benched last year. WHether you agree with that decision or not is irrelevant. He was benched for an UDFA. 

The defense was god awful. Like worse than 0-16 awful. 

We don't have much to spend

New coaching staff, rookies aren't a guarenttee and no offseason program. 

That could easily become a 2-14 season without much work. 

Not saying they couldn't but it would be more due to the lack of talent on the team then the "downgrade" in QB.  I put downgrade in quotes cause even though Goff is inferior to Stafford I don't think he is that much worse than the Staff we got last year who we won 5 games with. 

Goff had 8 games where he posted a 99 or better rating,  Stafford had 7, the difference is when Goff was bad he was really bad where as Staff was just merely below average.  Well were not winning a game whether you're horrible or below average in it so it really doesn't matter. 

What matters is how many times you're good and Goff had just as many if not more good games than Staff last year.

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On 2/12/2021 at 11:54 AM, MichiganCardinal said:

I'm not as confident as you are, but in the NFL, where you only play 16 games and a handful every year are decided by a possession or less, I don't think 8-8 is out of the question. I do think somewhere between 3-13 and 6-10 is more likely though. I think though the defense almost has to take something of a step forward (their backs are against the wall), but the offense could very well take a step back without Stafford.

The offense, by nearly all measures, was a bottom 12 offense last season.  The lions had a below average offense and the worst defense in the league.  I don’t see the offense taking a step back just based on how bad they were statically last year.  Add a top flight WR and you would expect a top 12 offense with a defense that ranks in the bottom 3rd, but clearly better than last year. 

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3 hours ago, T&P_Fan said:

The offense, by nearly all measures, was a bottom 12 offense last season.  The lions had a below average offense and the worst defense in the league.  I don’t see the offense taking a step back just based on how bad they were statically last year.  Add a top flight WR and you would expect a top 12 offense with a defense that ranks in the bottom 3rd, but clearly better than last year. 

I think the offense was better than bottom third when firing on all cylinders with a healthy Stafford and Golladay. But if for argument's sake you go by the numbers and say they are bottom third, I also don't see how a slight improvement in WR (rookie WRs aren't often instant playmakers) and a downgrade of unknown amounts in QB gets you to the top third.

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9 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I think the offense was better than bottom third when firing on all cylinders with a healthy Stafford and Golladay. But if for argument's sake you go by the numbers and say they are bottom third, I also don't see how a slight improvement in WR (rookie WRs aren't often instant playmakers) and a downgrade of unknown amounts in QB gets you to the top third.

dvoa has the lions ranked 16th last year.  smack dab in the middle.  15th in passing and 21st in rushing.

fyi, the rams were 10th.  20th in passing and 5th in rushing...

 

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in the way too early projected 2021 rankings, the rams move up from 10 to 9 on offense and the lions move down from 16 to 23.

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Apparently Sheila has been sitting in on free agency meetings. She definitely seems more hands-on than her parents. 

 

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2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

Apparently Sheila has been sitting in on free agency meetings. She definitely seems more hands-on than her parents. 

 

I like it. 

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I like Sheila getting more involved. This way she can justifiably step in, grab the draft card and rip it up when it says Kyle Pitts, Detroit Lions, #7 before it gets to Goodell to read.

  • Thanks 1

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14 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

What would you trade for Russell Wilson?

Nothing. He doesn't make sense for this team. He's only a few months younger than Stafford, and I'm not sure what his beef is in Seattle. He's got it good there. Not going to like the Lions better. 

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11 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I wouldn't trade for him either, it's just a hypothetical of what it would take to get him.

Honestly, probably not much more than what it took to get Stafford. Now before people jump up and down about OMG Wilson won a Super Bowl, there comes a point when teams simply can't give up that much draft capital. It just becomes a law of diminishing returns. A team isn't going to sacrifice three to four years of 1st round picks for a 33 year old QB. Only the Rams would do that. Unless your a team that has multiple picks within the next two seasons like the Jets or Dolphins, I don't see more than two 1sts. You may get better 1sts than the Lions got like Carolina's 8th pick or Denver's 9th pick. The Lions got an impressive haul for Stafford. It's going to be hard to top that. 

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according to schefter, wilson says the only teams he will accept a trade to are the cowboys, saints, raiders, and bears.

bears would totally spend three first round picks for wilson.  

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The Saints don't have the cap space for him. They are in cap **** and would have to shed half their roster just to get Russ and stay under the cap.

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if russ is mad that he has no offensive line in seattle, wait until he gets a look at chicago...

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