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RatkoVarda

2020-21 Off season

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13 minutes ago, Yoda said:

How does it not make the games at least a little more fun when you see guys like Mize, Skubal, Torkelson, Green come up and make their debuts? I love watching rookies play. I find value in that. Maybe I'm weird. 

I honestly would rather see a bunch of young, talented but raw players lose 90 games than watch a bunch of old, aging, expensive players win 90. But I've always preferred watching younger players. Maybe I should stick to minor league baseball because apparently I'm doing it wrong. 

Dude, love ya, but you are totally missing my point.   I want to root for prospects because they're part of a successful team, not because they represent $ savings for ownership.  Tanking for high draft picks to save $ is the only damn reason we have these guys in the first place.

I'd rather root for prospects that are drafted and developed because we have a good organization not because we were literally designed to suck.

I will root for these players and hopefully we will toast their success **and** the teams success, thats supposed to be the ultimate bottom line for us.

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8 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Dude, love ya, but you are totally missing my point.   I want to root for prospects because they're part of a successful team, not because they represent $ savings for ownership.  Tanking for high draft picks to save $ is the only damn reason we have these guys in the first place.

I'd rather root for prospects that are drafted and developed because we have a good organization not because we were literally designed to suck.

I will root for these players and hopefully we will toast their success **and** the teams success, thats supposed to be the ultimate bottom line for us.

What other alternatives did we have?  We tried going for it in 2015-17 and where did that get us?  No where.  We could've just held onto everybody and won 70 games the past 3 years but then where would we be?  We still would have multiple last place finishes but instead of having some top prospects and a great farm system we would have no system and wasted 10s of millions of dollars in the process. 

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1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

What other alternatives did we have?  We tried going for it in 2015-17 and where did that get us?  No where.  We could've just held onto everybody and won 70 games the past 3 years but then where would we be?  We still would have multiple last place finishes but instead of having some top prospects and a great farm system we would have no system and wasted 10s of millions of dollars in the process. 

Exactly.  By picking in the top 5 for the last 5 years they actually now have top level prospects to look forward to.  If there is any criticism of Avila it's that that's ALL they have (other than Skubal) and that none of their other picks appear to be panning out and the prospects from trades don't appear to be very good.

But the top 5 picks are still well regarded, which is a lot better position than they were in a few years ago.

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We can all wish owners looked at their teams as pet projects good for dissipating the excess cash from other profitable ventures, but there is limit to what fans can reasonably expect in that direction. While I am firmly in the camp that doesn't care if Ilitch is willing at some point to go into the red for some period based on the ego boost a WS could give him, I also recognize that If pro sports league did make money for their owners *on average*, they would not exist.

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39 minutes ago, Buddha said:

Exactly.  By picking in the top 5 for the last 5 years they actually now have top level prospects to look forward to.  If there is any criticism of Avila it's that that's ALL they have (other than Skubal) and that none of their other picks appear to be panning out and the prospects from trades don't appear to be very good.

But the top 5 picks are still well regarded, which is a lot better position than they were in a few years ago.

I think Cabrera, Workman, Colt and some others have a chance. Also don't forget the international kids

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5 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

We can all wish owners looked at their teams as pet projects good for dissipating the excess cash from other profitable ventures, but there is limit to what fans can reasonably expect in that direction. While I am firmly in the camp that doesn't care if Ilitch is willing at some point to go into the red for some period based on the ego boost a WS could give him, I also recognize that If pro sports league did make money for their owners *on average*, they would not exist.

Illitch was the exception in that regard toward the end, not the rule. In the 80's before collusion this is how owners largely handled things. It sounds great in theory, but when teams start struggling to survive because they spent dumb, you start running into issues of solvency. Eventually born out of that were the debt servicing rules in the 2002 CBA which gave the commissioner some veto power if a team wasn't far enough in the black relative to their outstanding debt.

It really doesn't seem right, though, that 2019 is the Tigers most profitable season on record, by far.

  • Confused 1

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8 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

It’s really hard to say.  I’m a fan of everyone from last year’s draft, but we haven’t been able to see them play yet.  I’m bullish on Packard and interested to see how he takes to 1B. All of a sudden, when you mix in the injuries to Wentz, Perez and Faedo, our pitching looks  a bit thin after the big 3. 

 

I also like how last year's draft went.  Cruz sounds like he might be a reach, time will tell.  But I can't recall how I felt about the previous drafts at that time.  Maybe I felt the same?  I don't know.

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6 hours ago, Buddha said:

Exactly.  By picking in the top 5 for the last 5 years they actually now have top level prospects to look forward to.  If there is any criticism of Avila it's that that's ALL they have (other than Skubal) and that none of their other picks appear to be panning out and the prospects from trades don't appear to be very good.

But the top 5 picks are still well regarded, which is a lot better position than they were in a few years ago.

This is my issue with the rebuild.

I would submit, however, that Candelario and Castro are players that were traded for as part of the rebuild that could be parts of the next contender.  

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1 minute ago, Casimir said:

This is my issue with the rebuild.

I would submit, however, that Candelario and Castro are players that were traded for as part of the rebuild that could be parts of the next contender.  

paredes too, i suppose.

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2 minutes ago, Buddha said:

paredes too, i suppose.

Yes, Paredes as well.

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8 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

What other alternatives did we have?  We tried going for it in 2015-17 and where did that get us?  No where.  We could've just held onto everybody and won 70 games the past 3 years but then where would we be?  We still would have multiple last place finishes but instead of having some top prospects and a great farm system we would have no system and wasted 10s of millions of dollars in the process. 

There are plenty of successful alternatives out there to a 5 year tank plan. 

Its difficult to convince people that these are viable alternatives to tanking, because they involve teams that did lose big for a while and did have high draft picks that helped as a result of the losing, like the Twins and presumably the White Sox. 

But these teams, and even the sainted Astros, may they save in peace, *mostly* turned it around or are turning it around because of non-tanking strategies like non top pick development, trades, and those evil FAs/$.  We will have to do well at THOSE skills at some point if we hope to win. 

Just having the high draft picks will not realize the dreams of fans who have sold themselves on the Moneyball ideal.

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This conversation always brings me back to the A’s and the Rays. They have a track record that proves you don’t have to tank to remain competitive. Those organizations obviously have the right people making the decisions through scouting, drafting, developing, all of it. These two orgs churn their top players for top prospects, which as a diehard fan would be tough I imagine, seeing guys go that had contributed so much. Blake Snell is the perfect example. But the huge upside is you know your team is always going to be competitive, which is huge. They have a chance to win. That’s the objective, to have an opportunity. 

If Oakland and Tampa had better parks they would definitely have more revenue.

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36 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

There are plenty of successful alternatives out there to a 5 year tank plan. 

Its difficult to convince people that these are viable alternatives to tanking, because they involve teams that did lose big for a while and did have high draft picks that helped as a result of the losing, like the Twins and presumably the White Sox. 

But these teams, and even the sainted Astros, may they save in peace, *mostly* turned it around or are turning it around because of non-tanking strategies like non top pick development, trades, and those evil FAs/$.  We will have to do well at THOSE skills at some point if we hope to win. 

Just having the high draft picks will not realize the dreams of fans who have sold themselves on the Moneyball ideal.

with the tigers' terrible farm system and aging core of players, what did you want them to do?  who did you want them to sign to stay competitive?

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when the cubs brought in theo, he gutted the organization and established a development plan for prospects.  the cubs tanked for 4 years and hit on all their top picks.  but they were also able to sign and trade fringe veterans for useful pieces.  that's the thing the tigers have not done yet.

its still too early to write them all off.  i think we can all now agree that the jd martinez trade was trash.  the verlander trade doesnt look promising but its still too early to write those guys off.  as noted above, paredes/candelario might be useful.  

they should start to be competitive in 2022.  if not, then avila will likely be fired.

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13 minutes ago, Buddha said:

...but they were also able to sign and trade fringe veterans for useful pieces.  that's the thing the tigers have not done yet.

they should start to be competitive in 2022.  if not, then avila will likely be fired.

Agree with this, particularly the first point. This is why I’m not sold on Avila yet. He can’t draft this team out of the cellar. At some point he’s going to have to write some big checks and they can’t end up junk. 

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35 minutes ago, Buddha said:

when the cubs brought in theo, he gutted the organization and established a development plan for prospects.  the cubs tanked for 4 years and hit on all their top picks.  but they were also able to sign and trade fringe veterans for useful pieces.  that's the thing the tigers have not done yet.

its still too early to write them all off.  i think we can all now agree that the jd martinez trade was trash.  the verlander trade doesnt look promising but its still too early to write those guys off.  as noted above, paredes/candelario might be useful.  

they should start to be competitive in 2022.  if not, then avila will likely be fired.

The cubs only had 2 seasons with fewer than 71 wins, and only 5 losing seasons, only 3 of them with Theo, before their storming of the playoffs in 2015.   And in year 3 they were clearly on an upswing.

Avila has had 6 off seasons at the helm, 4 of them in full tank mode.  

 It is not surprising that they have stockpiled some talent given everything that they traded away and all the losing.

Does anybody truly believe that they will be competing for the playoffs and 2022 or even 2023 with this approach, this farm system, and this leadership?

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1 minute ago, sabretooth said:

 

Avila has had 6 off seasons at the helm, 4 of them in full tank mode.    Does anybody truly believe that they will be competing for the playoffs and 2022 or even 2023 with this approach and this leadership?

With 14 teams  in the playoffs, they can compete almost by accident.  Just get up to around .500 and you'll be in the mix.  

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11 hours ago, Casimir said:

 

JT Realmuto running out of landing spots.  But Detroit has an opening remaining....

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15 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

With 14 teams  in the playoffs, they can compete almost by accident.  Just get up to around .500 and you'll be in the mix.  

Unfortunately, yes, the playoff pool is being watered down so much that .500 gets you into the party.

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18 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

The cubs only had 2 seasons with fewer than 71 wins, and only 5 losing seasons, only 3 of them with Theo, before their storming of the playoffs in 2015.   And in year 3 they were clearly on an upswing.

Avila has had 6 off seasons at the helm, 4 of them in full tank mode.  

 It is not surprising that they have stockpiled some talent given everything that they traded away and all the losing.

Does anybody truly believe that they will be competing for the playoffs and 2022 or even 2023 with this approach, this farm system, and this leadership?

if they're not around .500 by 2022 or over 500 by 2023 he should be fired.

hey, i thought he should have been fired a while ago.  but i think he has made some good organizational moves since then.  hinch was a really good hire and he seems to be putting together a good staff.

i think avila is likely to be fired before the tigers get good again because i'm not sure all the pitching talent he acquired in the draft is going to turn out to be good quick enough to save his job (burrows flaming out and faedo not being good and then getting hurt really hurt).

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3 minutes ago, Casimir said:

JT Realmuto running out of landing spots.  But Detroit has an opening remaining....

lol.

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Even though I've been an Avila apologist since day one my patience is growing thin with him as well, I don't expect the Tigers to compete this year but I hope to see some strides made from our prospects and hopefully a guy or two outside of the "Big 5" to break out.  If that doesn't happen then I will definitely start to jump on the fire Avila train.  

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22 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Unfortunately, yes, the playoff pool is being watered down so much that .500 gets you into the party.

 

39 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

With 14 teams  in the playoffs, they can compete almost by accident.  Just get up to around .500 and you'll be in the mix.  

You are absolutely correct, and how dreary a prospect.  They can stay cheap and mediocre, target .500 as their ceiling, and never have to build/field a good team in order to slip into the playoffs every couple of years and keep making a tidy profit.....yuck....oh well.

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1 hour ago, 1776 said:

These two orgs churn their top players for top prospects, which as a diehard fan would be tough I imagine, seeing guys go that had contributed so much

This is a problem in the current era and why Mr I ended up with the Tigers so out of sync. The question is what does a fan root for, the player or the jersey? OK, trick question, it's both of course. But  Mr I was from the time when it was expected that fans could see their favorites play their careers with one team. That led him to want to give players contracts through retirement, but you just can't do that anymore without ending like right where the Tigers were. The system under the current CBA forces teams that want to win consistently to be mercenary with the fans in term of letting players go when their cost effectiveness drops. I think teams the teams that are beginning to refuse to sign players past their high productivity years are showing the way to the next market efficiency exploit - at least until a CBA comes along that changes the system.

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24 minutes ago, Buddha said:

if they're not around .500 by 2022 or over 500 by 2023 he should be fired.

hey, i thought he should have been fired a while ago.  but i think he has made some good organizational moves since then.  hinch was a really good hire and he seems to be putting together a good staff.

i think avila is likely to be fired before the tigers get good again because i'm not sure all the pitching talent he acquired in the draft is going to turn out to be good quick enough to save his job (burrows flaming out and faedo not being good and then getting hurt really hurt).

Avila is better than Randy Smith.  And given that mediocre teams can more easily slide into the expanded playoffs, mediocre GMs can really shine, I guess.

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