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RatkoVarda

2020-21 Off season

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15 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Looking into it some more, foul balls are a bigger problem than I realized and it's getting worse.  There are 54 foul balls per game and there are now more foul balls than balls put in play.  

Sawchik-FOULMLB-1.png?w=575

Deaden the ball and you will solve this problem.

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56 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Looking into it some more, foul balls are a bigger problem than I realized and it's getting worse.  There are 54 foul balls per game and there are now more foul balls than balls put in play.  

Sawchik-FOULMLB-1.png?w=575

My question would be is the increase in foul balls just following the increasing popularity of the high fastball. We could probably tell something if the fouls were tracking with IF pop-ups - which are are also evidence of high 'rising' fastballs. But think about the rise in Verlander type pitchers - even Matthew Boyd, every guy who throws a hard high FB that guys swing late and under gets a lot of fouls. It's that high spin FB that creates pops and foul backs and that is the 'in' thing learned from pitching analytics so it make sense it is increasing.

And of course this also ties into the strike zone. Pitchers got away from the high fastball for decades when the top of the K zone ended at the waist and it was never called a strike so batters didn't need to swing at it.

If this is the case then fouls should also have been higher in the 'pitchers' era before they lowered the mound - at least relatively to the years immediately before and after - as the high fastball was the popular power pitcher pitch then as well.

I can't tell how the scales relate but is the drop in balls-in-play actually related directly to fouls or is it just the flip side of the increase in strike-outs? And for that matter it makes sense that fouls also increase with Ks/Swing and Miss, since a foul is just a partial S&M.

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Schwarber will not be tendered a contact by the Cubs. One year of control left, 28 years old in March, LH bat who has never played 1b, but probably stretched in LF in CoPa. Tigers are 3rd in line to claim. Has huge variance across the years, but a "normal" year is easily worth $8M.

But $8m this winter might get you 2 decent bats

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17 minutes ago, kdog said:

 

Surprised by this. I didn't have any strong feeling about any of these guys individually but I thought as a group 7 of 9 would be the Tigers' limit, just on the basis of them knowing and not liking something about at least two of these guys we fans weren't privy to. I think as general rule management that likes their own guys too much is worrisome, but when all your guys are young I can accept that that shifts the balance. 

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13 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Schwarber will not be tendered a contact by the Cubs. One year of control left, 28 years old in March, LH bat who has never played 1b, but probably stretched in LF in CoPa. Tigers are 3rd in line to claim. Has huge variance across the years, but a "normal" year is easily worth $8M.

But $8m this winter might get you 2 decent bats

Non tenders are free agents.

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19 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

thanks. so that's a no from him I assume

Not necessarily, not sure he's a fit. There are some semi interesting outfielders non tendered; Rosario, toolsy ones like Dahl (always injured), and the consistently inconsistent Almora and Mazara.

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11 hours ago, Shelton said:

 

Regardless, this is the worst idea you have ever had. 

Hold on...is this the hill that you want to die on?  That nowhere, in 60,000 posts, is there a worse idea than this one?

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2 minutes ago, Charles Liston said:

Hold on...is this the hill that you want to die on?  That nowhere, in 60,000 posts, is there a worse idea than this one?

And that doesn't count the several thousand posts that got deleted during one of the transitions.  I think there is some recency bias going on here.  

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Just deaden the ball back to any year pre-1990 except 1987.  Every other problem is automatically solved.  When the little runts can only reach the warning track, they will change their approach.  It isn't difficult for an elite athlete, they could do it in less than a month.  Spend the winter working your wrists and forearms. Watch tape of Cabrera - he is an all-fields line drive hitter (they only go out of the park because he is so strong).  He stays back and hits it hard, up the middle.

When people start hitting to all fields again, we will only use the shift against Willie McCovey and Ted Williams.  Problem solved.

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13 minutes ago, Charles Liston said:

Just deaden the ball back to any year pre-1990 except 1987.  Every other problem is automatically solved.  When the little runts can only reach the warning track, they will change their approach.  It isn't difficult for an elite athlete, they could do it in less than a month.  Spend the winter working your wrists and forearms. Watch tape of Cabrera - he is an all-fields line drive hitter (they only go out of the park because he is so strong).  He stays back and hits it hard, up the middle.

When people start hitting to all fields again, we will only use the shift against Willie McCovey and Ted Williams.  Problem solved.

Yes, I also believe the mechanics are really that simple. The league politics - not so much.

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14 hours ago, chasfh said:

By deadening the ball, pitchers would not have to bear down on every single hitter, so more at bats would resolve themselves faster.

In the olden days, every major league lineup had maybe one or two or three home run threats that a pitcher had to bear down on, and three or more guys who couldn't hit it out if they tried. So for those guys who couldn't, the pitcher could just serve up the ball in the strike zone and say here you go, hit it and get yourself out. And getting himself out is what would happen at least 70% of the time. If the pitcher is serving up straight strikes to be hit, that's fewer pitches he has to throw to get guys out. So he wouldn't have to worry about inducing swing and miss. That'll result in fewer strikeouts, and more balls put into play.

That's how pitchers in days of yore got all those complete games—not because they were superhuman and today's pitchers are made of glass, but because they didn't have to contort their shoulders and elbows putting unhittable spin on every single pitch like they do today, since now all nine guys in a batting order can take a pitcher out at any time. On most batters, all pitchers back then had to do was throw the ball, let it be hit, and have their fielders do the work. They just had to put just enough movement on it to induce weak contact. Also, in those days, pitchers had to bat in both leagues and since so many went deep into games, pitchers would bat three or more times, and that's yet another guy they could just throw easy strikes to.

Pitchers hitting will never come back, but deaden the ball enough so that half the lineup isn't a viable home run threat anymore, and pitchers will throw fewer pitches, pitch faster, pitch longer into games, and the pace of play will pick up.

agreed 100%

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7 hours ago, Charles Liston said:

Just deaden the ball back to any year pre-1990 except 1987.  Every other problem is automatically solved.  When the little runts can only reach the warning track, they will change their approach.  It isn't difficult for an elite athlete, they could do it in less than a month.  Spend the winter working your wrists and forearms. Watch tape of Cabrera - he is an all-fields line drive hitter (they only go out of the park because he is so strong).  He stays back and hits it hard, up the middle.

When people start hitting to all fields again, we will only use the shift against Willie McCovey and Ted Williams.  Problem solved.

yes, I don't think it's complicated.  I believe that deadening the ball is all they have to do to create more action in the game.  The problem is they don't want to do that because many fans like frequent home runs.   To quicken the pace of play,  make the pitchers pitch and make the batters bat.  Use a clock to enforce the rules.   

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9 hours ago, tiger337 said:

yes, I don't think it's complicated.  I believe that deadening the ball is all they have to do to create more action in the game.  The problem is they don't want to do that because many fans like frequent home runs.   To quicken the pace of play,  make the pitchers pitch and make the batters bat.  Use a clock to enforce the rules.   

Fans do like home runs from the batter’s perspective, and they like strikeouts from the pitcher’s perspective. They like the one-on-one mano a mano matchup. Me against you. Best man wins.

But fans would also learn to fall in love again with more ball-in-play action during the game. That’s what people fell in love with about baseball in the first place, in the 1870s, when the game’s entire action was when the ball was hit into play, which is how well over 95% of at bats resolved. Even during the first couple decades of the 20th Century, when baseball was arguably at its cultural apex, balls in play was still well over 80% of at bats. Now it’s barely over 60%. There’s got to be happy medium somewhere in there.

Batter home runs and pitcher strikeouts would still be an important part of the game, but they would be more special if they were fewer in the big picture of things. Home runs and strikeouts are like peanuts on soft serve ice cream. The peanuts on top make the soft serve taste great, but if it consisted of 35% peanuts, it wouldn’t be nearly as good.

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11 hours ago, Longgone said:

Not necessarily, not sure he's a fit. There are some semi interesting outfielders non tendered; Rosario, toolsy ones like Dahl (always injured), and the consistently inconsistent Almora and Mazara.

If you're the Tigers, I think you make hard pushes for guys like Dahl and Mazara...take a gamble on the upside and appeal to them with considerable playing time available. Both are really talented players that are worth a shot...though lots of teams will take that shot.

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18 minutes ago, Microline133 said:

If you're the Tigers, I think you make hard pushes for guys like Dahl and Mazara...take a gamble on the upside and appeal to them with considerable playing time available. Both are really talented players that are worth a shot...though lots of teams will take that shot.

And hope that Dahl can keep from running into unforgiving things.

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1 hour ago, Longgone said:

And hope that Dahl can keep from running into unforgiving things.

yeah - would love Dahl on a contract that paid him per game he was available!

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Contracts based on playing time are legal.  They can't do it per game, but there have been contracts where players get extensions and I believe bonuses based on reaching a certain number of plate appearances.  Regardless, I think they should take a chance on him.  Does he have any chronic injuries or has he just had unlucky acute injuries?

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

Contracts based on playing time are legal.  They can't do it per game, but there have been contracts where players get extensions and I believe bonuses based on reaching a certain number of plate appearances.  Regardless, I think they should take a chance on him.  Does he have any chronic injuries or has he just had unlucky acute injuries?

My quick survey was they they were all different - stress fractured rib, broken foot, sprained ankle - maybe the worst was he just had surgery to 'clean-up' right shoulder this year after it was inflamed  this last season. 

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7 minutes ago, Microline133 said:

I seem to recall a lacerated spleen from an incident in Double-A as well.

LOL - quite the record. Too bad that "What ever doesn't kill you makes you stronger?"  isn't really true!

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Jim McCann circling a 4 year deal with the Mets. The pandemic economy folks.

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19 minutes ago, kdog said:

Jim McCann circling a 4 year deal with the Mets. The pandemic economy folks.

clear swing and a miss by Al letting McCann walk; last 2 years C has been a hot mess

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5 hours ago, Microline133 said:

If you're the Tigers, I think you make hard pushes for guys like Dahl and Mazara...take a gamble on the upside and appeal to them with considerable playing time available. Both are really talented players that are worth a shot...though lots of teams will take that shot.

Totally agree with this. They both are young, OF-LHB, upside, could be part of the team later as well. Cost is favorable also. If even one works out (not that they would/should sign both, nor did you mean that, but is an idea) - it is a win situation.

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