Jump to content
RatkoVarda

2020-21 Off season

Recommended Posts

I'd be fine going after Springer even though he is 31.  He is really athletic so there is a good chance he holds his value longer than your average 31 year old.     Plus he would play a position of need, next year an OF of him, Jacoby(until he gets hurt) and Reyes would be really good defensively and potentially really solid offensively.   

It's a big IF, particularly with how they looked this past year but IF guys like Mize, Skubal and Manning end up being legit(number 2s or better) the organization isn't that far off.   Our pitching staff was absolutely horrible so if we essentially subbed out 3 below replacement level pitchers for 3 number 2s it would give us a ton a wins. 

The reason I bring that all up is that if we did indeed sign a guy like Springer I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that we would be wasting a year or 2 of his "prime" before we get good.    I think if we got him, 1 solid starter(say a number 3ish type guy) and atleast 2 out of the big 3 took major steps forward we could be a low to mid 80s win team potentially if things went right.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
BetRivers Michigan Sports Betting

BetRivers Michigan $50 Launch Offer

Michigan online sports betting is launching in January 2021. Pre-register at BetRivers Sportsbook and get a free $50 bonus at their online sportsbook & casino with no deposit necessary.

Claim $50 at BetRivers Michigan Now

2 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

I'd be fine going after Springer even though he is 31.  He is really athletic so there is a good chance he holds his value longer than your average 31 year old.     Plus he would play a position of need, next year an OF of him, Jacoby(until he gets hurt) and Reyes would be really good defensively and potentially really solid offensively.   

It's a big IF, particularly with how they looked this past year but IF guys like Mize, Skubal and Manning end up being legit(number 2s or better) the organization isn't that far off.   Our pitching staff was absolutely horrible so if we essentially subbed out 3 below replacement level pitchers for 3 number 2s it would give us a ton a wins. 

The reason I bring that all up is that if we did indeed sign a guy like Springer I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that we would be wasting a year or 2 of his "prime" before we get good.    I think if we got him, 1 solid starter(say a number 3ish type guy) and atleast 2 out of the big 3 took major steps forward we could be a low to mid 80s win team potentially if things went right.

I like your post, as long as you remove Reyes From the equation.  I really hope he doesn’t see more than 200 AB’s next season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reyes is an OK 4th outfielder.  He is average defensively and makes good contact, but does not draw walks or hit home runs.  I agree 200 AB is enough.    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I like your post, as long as you remove Reyes From the equation.  I really hope he doesn’t see more than 200 AB’s next season.

Yeah I just threw Reyes in there cause I think he is going to be the starter the whole year and I do think he is a good defender.   I'd prefer somebody better but I think an OF of them 3 would be really good defensively.   Of course he isn't much of an offensive threat unless he gets BABIP aided.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

Reyes is an OK 4th outfielder.  He is average defensively and makes good contact, but does not draw walks or hit home runs.  I agree 200 AB is enough.    

Enough if you have someone better for the other 400. That's always the rub.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

I'd be fine going after Springer even though he is 31.  He is really athletic so there is a good chance he holds his value longer than your average 31 year old. 

IDK if 'athleticism' is the best guide. The counter is that he didn't have an season over 850 OPS until he was 27 so he might be a "short career arc"  guy whose bat is done at 32.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A pitcher I would like to look at if he is only looking at a 1 year pillow contract would be James Paxton.  It may cost alot but since we have money to spare I think it could be worth it.   Just spitballing a number here but say he wants 1/18, that 18 could end up being a total waste but he has the potential to be dominant and if he is he could be a huge asset to us.   Worst case scenario is we lose 18 million(or whatever it takes) that we can afford to spend but the upside is that he could be a number 2 or ace.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

Reyes is an OK 4th outfielder.  He is average defensively and makes good contact, but does not draw walks or hit home runs.  I agree 200 AB is enough.    

Probably true for Reyes, but part of the problem is Jones' lack of durability and Stewart's defensive shortcomings.  As well as the lack of ready for MLB OFs in the organization.

There was some talk of moving Willi! to the OF.  I want to see him at SS another season, but maybe a move to the OF wouldn't be out of the question?

11 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

IDK if 'athleticism' is the best guide. The counter is that he didn't have an season over 850 OPS until he was 27 so he might be a "short career arc"  guy whose bat is done at 32.

I can understand the attraction of Springer, but I worry about his "athleticism" for an older guy in a big outfield.  And I don't know about his age and the contract he could command.  At least, not for where the Tigers are currently.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

IDK if 'athleticism' is the best guide. The counter is that he didn't have an season over 850 OPS until he was 27 so he might be a "short career arc"  guy whose bat is done at 32.

In his first full season He had a 133RC+ at the age of 25(turned 26 in Sept of that season).    He was drafted out of High School but went to college and ended up being picked 11th overall so he has always had the pedigree.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

His sprint speed in 2015 was 28.8 ft/second which was good for 50th in all of baseball, now it is 28.2 ft/second which is 84th but still good enough to be in the 86 percentile.  Basically his speed has just dropped a fraction despite adding strength, weight and age since then.  To me that suggests just how great of athlete he still is, which generally means you age much better.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Casimir said:

 

There was some talk of moving Willi! to the OF.  I want to see him at SS another season, but maybe a move to the OF wouldn't be out of the question?

 

Yes - a good bat is always more of a difference maker if it can hold down a premium defensive position. It's seems it's mostly about not being disciplined in his throwing mechanics so it's reasonable to make the effort to fix him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

His sprint speed in 2015 was 28.8 ft/second which was good for 50th in all of baseball, now it is 28.2 ft/second which is 84th but still good enough to be in the 86 percentile.  Basically his speed has just dropped a fraction despite adding strength, weight and age since then.  To me that suggests just how great of athlete he still is, which generally means you age much better.  

this is the edge of a broader discussion. Putting Springer in particular aside for the moment - a player can maintain his athleticism but lose his ability to hit (Ian Kinsler?) , and for that matter vice versa (Miguel!). Hitting (IMO) is more limited by visual and neurological aging. I don't know how well understood the correlation between that and musculature decline is. I don't think we know enough to assume they will be the same in any given player.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

this is the edge of a broader discussion. Putting Springer in particular aside for the moment - a player can maintain his athleticism but lose his ability to hit, and for that matter vice versa (Miguel!). Hitting (IMO) is more limited by visual and neurological aging. I don't know how well understood the correlation between that and musculature decline is. I don't think we know enough to just assume they will be the same in any given player.

True, you're definitely rolling the dice handing out a big contract to a 31 year old cause you don't know how he is going to age but in general the better athlete is going to age better.  Perhaps Springer will age like Carl Crawford who was a great athlete yet still fell off a cliff?  I guess nothing is for certain.  But the fact is we need talent and should have plenty of money to spend for next several years.  

If he ends up being a total bust after 2 years so be it, it's not like that money was going to prevent us from doing something else if we wanted to.   Would I give him 250 million?  No, but if he could be had for 5/125 or something like that I'd do it.  We need talent and impact bats and he could be just that.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

True, you're definitely rolling the dice handing out a big contract to a 31 year old cause you don't know how he is going to age but in general the better athlete is going to age better.  Perhaps Springer will age like Carl Crawford who was a great athlete yet still fell off a cliff?  I guess nothing is for certain.  But the fact is we need talent and should have plenty of money to spend for next several years.  

If he ends up being a total bust after 2 years so be it, it's not like that money was going to prevent us from doing something else if we wanted to.   Would I give him 250 million?  No, but if he could be had for 5/125 or something like that I'd do it.  We need talent and impact bats and he could be just that.   

true  - the devil is always in the dollars.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think we should offer long term contracts of 25 million/ year to anybody but the real elite that play a premium position or have a premium bat and are below 30. Pay more for a shorter commitment or pay more for a Lindor or Betts etc that you know will be good year in and year out. Stay out of the "middle" of free agency. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

IDK if 'athleticism' is the best guide. The counter is that he didn't have an season over 850 OPS until he was 27 so he might be a "short career arc"  guy whose bat is done at 32.

That's a terrible counter though. He was a college player and was terrific in the minors at 22 and 23. The Astros held him down way longer than they should have to manipulate service time. He should have broken into the majors at 23.

Regardless he came up as a 24 year old at had an OPS+ 126 in a short season then 129 his first full season at 25. Springer was a good hitter from day one at a young age. He's not an elite MVP level hitter, but he's always been an all star level player, where is this need to downplay Springers bat coming from?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, socaltiger said:

I don't think we should offer long term contracts of 25 million/ year to anybody but the real elite that play a premium position or have a premium bat and are below 30. Pay more for a shorter commitment or pay more for a Lindor or Betts etc that you know will be good year in and year out. Stay out of the "middle" of free agency. 

Ideally I'd like to break the bank for somebody like Lindor but for 1 we don't even know if he will actually become available and for another we don't know if we could actually get him.   

For the next 5 years(until our prospects start to get into arbitration) we should have plenty of payroll space, so either we spend that space spending 15-20 million a year on 1 year rentals like we been doing, just give it back to the owner or we spend it on a potential impact player.  I choose the latter.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, TigerNation said:

That's a terrible counter though. He was a college player and was terrific in the minors at 22 and 23. The Astros held him down way longer than they should have to manipulate service time. He should have broken into the majors at 23.

Regardless he came up as a 24 year old at had an OPS+ 126 in a short season then 129 his first full season at 25. Springer was a good hitter from day one at a young age. He's not an elite MVP level hitter, but he's always been an all star level player, where is this need to downplay Springers bat coming from?

Yeah, I don’t get it either. He’s the best free agent on the market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Rays just declined Charlie Morton's 15 million optioned.  Granted it's the Rays and they are notoriously cheap but 15 mill for him is a steal, maybe that's a sign of how cheap teams are going to be this offseason.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, TigerNation said:

and was terrific in the minors at 22 and 23.

I bet there are a lot of 30yr old major leaguers that would love to be paid based on what they did in the minors at 23. :cool:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Yeah, I don’t get it either. He’s the best free agent on the market.

Nobody is knocking Springer per se, the question is how best to take a guess at his projectability in 3-5 years, which is exactly relevant as that is probably the term he wants to be paid for.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How about LeMahieu to play 1B/able to move around if the kids don’t pan out or for injuries? I know we want Tork to be up and productive. How much money for how long is a question for him or any player. Thoughts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:

How about LeMahieu to play 1B/able to move around if the kids don’t pan out or for injuries? I know we want Tork to be up and productive. How much money for how long is a question for him or any player. Thoughts?

would help, but a 3 year contract takes him to 35 :( ; they would need to out-bid the Yankees

MLBTR has him getting 4/80

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Michigan Sports Betting Offer

Michigan is launching online sports betting and casino apps in January 2021. These top Michigan sportsbooks have pre-launch bonus offers. No deposit is required. Terms and conditions apply.

BetRivers Michigan - If you sign up at BetRivers Michigan now, you will receive $50 in free bets to use one their online sportsbook & casino

Click Here to claim $50 at BetRivers Michigan For Signing Up Now

FanDuel Michigan - If you register now before FanDuel launches in January, you will receive $100 to use at their sportsbook app & online casino.

Click Here to claim $100 at FanDuel Michigan For Registering Now

BetMGM Michigan - If you sign up early at BetMGM Michigan before launch, you will receive $200 in free bets to use at their online casino & sportsbook

Click Here to claim $200 at BetRivers Michigan For Signing Up Early

   


×
×
  • Create New...