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3 hours ago, leflore said:

DD traded the farm away.

Let's evaluate this claim objectively for a second.

The claim that he traded the farm away only holds water if the guys that he traded away could have helped AA when he became GM.

So let's look at the "farm" boys/prospects that DD traded away for older veterans (for the sake of argument, Tiger players who were under the age of 25 when DD traded them, and the player that was traded for them was over the age of 25)....and the player DD traded earned WAR since the beginning of 2016 after DD left Detroit. 

The Youth-for-Youth elimination criteria would exclude Maybin, Miller, Joyce, and Avisail Garcia, since they were traded for guys who were at or under 25 years of age. 

TRADE #1: Porcello for J. Cespedes: Porcello, though young at the time of the trade, was certainly not a prospect, and actually accumulated more career WAR as a Tiger before he was traded (10) than after he was traded (9), and DD flipped Ces for Fulmer, who accumulated as much WAR as Porcello did after the trade (surprise!).  This clearly doesn't fit the narrative.

TRADE #2: Robbie Ray traded for Shane Greene (Ray: 22 years of age, Greene: 26 years of age at the time of the trade): this is a borderline deal, since Greene was arguably still a prospect with only one half season of MLB time at the point of the trade.  If we include this one, Ray had one very good season in 2017 (4.7 WAR), which eclipses anything that Greene has done, but otherwise both have been up-and-down, and Ray has been a horrible pitcher for a few seasons now.  It really doesn't fit the narrative IMHO.

TRADE #3: Corey Knebel for J. Soria: I know, I know, everybody ragged on DD for this one....HOWEVER, other than Knebel's 2017 season, he's been nothing special, and DD flipped Soria for JaCoby Jones as a young prospect before DD left Detroit, and Jones has worked out pretty decently for the Tigers.  This also doesn't seem to fit the narrative.

TRADE #4: Willy Adames for David Price (Smyly and AJax also traded, but they were no longer young or prospects): We did get a playoff berth (our last one) out of this trade, and also Price was flipped for Boyd and Norris when they were young prospects, and they have accumulated 7 WAR (Boyd) and 6 WAR (Norris) vs. Adames' 7 WAR so far.  Given the "flip" for young pitchers, this also doesn't fit the narrative, though I would rather have the younger good SS at this point than the two decent pitchers. 

TRADE #5: Eugenio Suarez for Alfredo Simon: yeah, OK, this was a disaster, though nobody foresaw Suarez becoming the next incarnation of Brady Anderson.  Everybody, regardless of their stance on DD's performance, acknowledges that the Suarez trade was a hideous disaster, and absolutely fits the narrative.

Putting Suarez aside, which was an epic fail, DD's trades overall left Avila in 2015 with a group of pretty decent/good younger players (Fulmer, who had two very good seasons and now is battling injuries, Greene, who was decent and traded, Jones, who has been a decent part-time player and who seemed to blossom a little this year, Boyd, who had two pretty good years, Norris, who appears to still have potential as a reliever) to offset the other guys that DD traded away (Porcello, who is mediocre at best, Ray, who sucks, Knebel, who sucks, and Adames, who we'd all like to have back, of course). 

Given that we arguably made our last successful playoff run in 2014 thanks to trading Adames, and have had two pretty decent good/young pitchers in Boyd and Norris, that trade I think can absolutely be defended/excused.  The other trades worked out fine, with the exception of Suarez of course.

 

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Good points. DD made trades to win-now for Mr I and it gave Det a very good decade. Ultimately my point is AA inherited a barren farm and a roster weighted down with older, slow players, some with bloated contracts.

I'm sure I'll forget some, but here is a quick summary from my vantage point:

Bad: signed Harrison, Pelfrey and Lowe. Traded JD early (though I'm not sure he gets more if he waits it out). 

The awful: signed Zimm

The adequate: drafting. JUp and Kinsler trades. Signed Cron and Schoop. At least acknowledging player development has been lacking.

The good: Trade for Candy and Parades. Drafted Skubal (yeah, mostly luck). Built an analytics system. I did laundry and have fresh boxers.

Wait and see: international signings look promising. Chris I says he will spend. Al has stuck to his timeframe and it's time to take a step forward. If they don't Al should go. I should do laundry more frequently.

 

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32 minutes ago, leflore said:

Good points. DD made trades to win-now for Mr I and it gave Det a very good decade. Ultimately my point is AA inherited a barren farm and a roster weighted down with older, slow players, some with bloated contracts.

I'm sure I'll forget some, but here is a quick summary from my vantage point:

Bad: signed Harrison, Pelfrey and Lowe. Traded JD early (though I'm not sure he gets more if he waits it out). 

The awful: signed Zimm

The adequate: drafting. JUp and Kinsler trades. Signed Cron and Schoop. At least acknowledging player development has been lacking.

The good: Trade for Candy and Parades. Drafted Skubal (yeah, mostly luck). Built an analytics system. I did laundry and have fresh boxers.

Wait and see: international signings look promising. Chris I says he will spend. Al has stuck to his timeframe and it's time to take a step forward. If they don't Al should go. I should do laundry more frequently.

 

He also kept **** talent evaluators employed which has greatly hampered the rebuilding process. 

You have Candy and Parades in the good section. I'll agree, and not that the Great section simply doesn't exist to balance out the Auful section. 

Al Avila has been hot trash and he needs to be replaced, plain and simple. 

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5 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

but isn't that the point of the hard data -  to see what the conventional wisdom does not? If the physics can't tell you the difference between stuff that gets out college hitters and stuff that gets out MLB hitters, it is overrated. Now that said, I think a lot of Mize's problem so far have been command and that may well be for no more reason than that he hasn't pitched enough in total since he was drafted - but we shall see.

IMO, his command wasn't the problem. He indicated that the strike zone is much smaller in MLB than in College, and I think that is the problem. The game against the White Sox convinced me that he'll be ok.

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28 minutes ago, cruzer1 said:

IMO, his command wasn't the problem. He indicated that the strike zone is much smaller in MLB than in College, 

Not sure I buy that. Unless you are a guy with crazy movement like Turnbull, - the question is still can you throw it where the umpire calls it a strike? But whatever floats his boat.

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1 minute ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Not sure I buy that. Unless you are a guy with crazy movement like Turnbull, - the question is still can you throw it where the umpire calls it a strike? But whatever floats his boat.

I buy it, the college zones are ridiculous.

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10 hours ago, leflore said:

Good points. DD made trades to win-now for Mr I and it gave Det a very good decade. Ultimately my point is AA inherited a barren farm and a roster weighted down with older, slow players, some with bloated contracts.

I'm sure I'll forget some, but here is a quick summary from my vantage point:

Bad: signed Harrison, Pelfrey and Lowe. Traded JD early (though I'm not sure he gets more if he waits it out). 

The awful: signed Zimm

The adequate: drafting. JUp and Kinsler trades. Signed Cron and Schoop. At least acknowledging player development has been lacking.

The good: Trade for Candy and Parades. Drafted Skubal (yeah, mostly luck). Built an analytics system. I did laundry and have fresh boxers.

Wait and see: international signings look promising. Chris I says he will spend. Al has stuck to his timeframe and it's time to take a step forward. If they don't Al should go. I should do laundry more frequently.

Good takes....I agree, though the total malfunctioning of player development under DD *has* to be laid at AAs feet too, right?

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10 hours ago, leflore said:

Al has stuck to his timeframe and it's time to take a step forward. If they don't Al should go.

Agree.

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1 hour ago, sabretooth said:

Good takes....I agree, though the total malfunctioning of player development under DD *has* to be laid at AAs feet too, right?

True

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15 hours ago, sabretooth said:

Given that we arguably made our last successful playoff run in 2014 thanks to trading Adames, and have had two pretty decent good/young pitchers in Boyd and Norris, that trade I think can absolutely be defended/excused.  The other trades worked out fine, with the exception of Suarez of course.

 

You can add Chad Green to this list, he was traded for Justin Wilson. And Green has gone on to become a better, cheaper reliever.

The farm production has been below average for a long, long time and we are paying for it now. Those people responsible for that are still in charge. Sure they punted a few high draft picks signing free agents, but they also blew high draft picks on relievers and missed on a string of first round picks they did have. They also have had below average success in signing latin american prospects, while the rest of our division is doing better in that regard. I also take issue with the inordinate amount of college players they draft early, I believe younger players have a higher range of outcomes and thus higher ceilings.  

And honestly they must just not be good at developing young players. Isn't the GM ultimately responsible for evaluating that group? Aside from a few high draft picks I am not seeing improvement there recently either.

 

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2 hours ago, leflore said:

True

why is it true? Have you never worked for someone who didn't take your best advice?

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1 hour ago, Stanley70 said:

The farm production has been below average for a long, long time and we are paying for it now. Those people responsible for that are still in charge. Sure they punted a few high draft picks signing free agents, but they also blew high draft picks on relievers and missed on a string of first round picks they did have. They also have had below average success in signing latin american prospects, while the rest of our division is doing better in that regard. I also take issue with the inordinate amount of college players they draft early, I believe younger players have a higher range of outcomes and thus higher ceilings.  

And honestly they must just not be good at developing young players. Isn't the GM ultimately responsible for evaluating that group? Aside from a few high draft picks I am not seeing improvement there recently either.

DD's regime ran a lousy farm system, the third "real" GM starting with LaJoie in 1983 (excluding the McDonald, Walker, Klein brief experiments in the early 90s) over the last 40 years to fail at building a farm system. 

It will take a little time to fully evaluate AA's tenure as a GM in terms of player development....so far I am not aware of stories about guys who are dramatically exceeding their projections as they move through the system, or getting "fixed" while in the system.

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2 hours ago, Stanley70 said:

You can add Chad Green to this list, he was traded for Justin Wilson. And Green has gone on to become a better, cheaper reliever.

The farm production has been below average for a long, long time and we are paying for it now. Those people responsible for that are still in charge. Sure they punted a few high draft picks signing free agents, but they also blew high draft picks on relievers and missed on a string of first round picks they did have. They also have had below average success in signing latin american prospects, while the rest of our division is doing better in that regard. I also take issue with the inordinate amount of college players they draft early, I believe younger players have a higher range of outcomes and thus higher ceilings.  

And honestly they must just not be good at developing young players. Isn't the GM ultimately responsible for evaluating that group? Aside from a few high draft picks I am not seeing improvement there recently either.

 

agree that Green > Wilson, but at least that was corrected when able to flip Justin for Candelario and Paredes.

 

Candy/Paredes > Green > Wilson

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16 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

why is it true? Have you never worked for someone who didn't take your best advice?

Isn't that a function of an executive to successfully "sell" his recommendations and vision to his superiors and others of influence?  Especially if investments in technology and analytics represented relatively small spends in the grand scheme of things that were already the lifeblood of other successful organizations?  That cannot be a good reflection on AA, even if he was "only" the Assistant GM, and even if it was ultimately someone else's ultimate decision.

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This is getting out of hand. Avila has done enough over his time as the #1 to evaluate him without getting into speculation and hypotheticals regarding his working relationship with DD.

That said, I guess if you are reaching back to DD decisions in order to prove that the late 2015 tigers org was a dumpster fire, at least it is an acknowledgement that Avila became #1 of an org that was in bad shape. 
 

As for drafting and development, his first draft was 2016, so those players have had three years of development. Is that enough? Manning has probably exceeded expectations. 2nd and 3rd round picks were forfeited. Funkhouser was taken in the 4th and whether or not you like him, it’s still a win if a fourth rounder makes the majors. Bryan Garcia in the 6th is a win. Even Jacob Robson’s development as a 8th rounder has been good. John Schrieber was a 15th rounder. That’s a win. 
 

Seems pretty decent.

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I don't have a strong opinion about Avila.  I get the impression that he is not a very creative and innovative GM, but I don't sense that he is horribly destructive and clueless like Randy Smith.  If they get a chance to hire a top notch GM, they should go for it, but I don't think Avila has been a disaster.    

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My point regarding the  past draft failures is that Chaad and Plies still have their jobs after years of below average drafting. I haven't noticed a change in drafting philosophy since Al took over. 

Basically it's the same front office except Dombrowski is gone. It's the circumstances that have changed.

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1 minute ago, Stanley70 said:

My point regarding the  past draft failures is that Chaad and Plies still have their jobs after years of below average drafting. I haven't noticed a change in drafting philosophy since Al took over. 

Basically it's the same front office except Dombrowski is gone. It's the circumstances that have changed.

I've liked the last few drafts.  Certainly helps when you draft top-5, but I think you'd be hard pressed to second guess any of the picks over the last three drafts.

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I don't think it's out of hand to suggest that AA deserves share of the blame for shortcomings in their ability to develop players during DD's tenure as GM.  If someone can show how AA should share in the credit for the good DD trades, then fine, he might deserve some credit for that too.

The proof will be in the pudding regarding AA's drafts and development since 2016.  I don't have a strong feel for that yet.

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Yes, of course, he should share the blame for the bad DD stuff, because reasons, but he only gets credit for the good DD stuff if you can prove it. Perfectly cromulent. 

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3 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

I've liked the last few drafts.  Certainly helps when you draft top-5, but I think you'd be hard pressed to second guess any of the picks over the last three drafts.

I didn't care for the Rivera pick and I thought he reached for Clemens but otherwise I liked all his early picks the past 3-4 drafts.

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Tigers interviewing Marcus Thames for manager. One thing Marcus probably wouldn't have to worry about is anyone challenging him in the clubhouse. 💪

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Nothing against Marcus but I hope the Tigers don't pigeon hole themselves into only considering former Tigers. 

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Speaking of managers, I hear the White Sox really want Larussa as their manager.  As a Tigers fan I'd be cool with that.

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