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2020-21 Off season

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5 minutes ago, chasfh said:

At least Teheran can spin his curve ball.

2021-02-20_8-00-26.thumb.jpg.185a36bdb9fb59ff10fe4ecdeeae401d.jpg

His FB spin was in the 70th percentile in 2019 and was worth 21 runs according to FG making it one of the better FBs in the league.   I wonder if Hinch and/or Fetter picked up on a mechanical issue from 2020 that they think they can correct? 

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6 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

His FB spin was in the 70th percentile in 2019 and was worth 21 runs according to FG making it one of the better FBs in the league.   I wonder if Hinch and/or Fetter picked up on a mechanical issue from 2020 that they think they can correct? 

That's the spirit!

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My hopes for the new regime are that AJ Hinch is Bill Belichick and Chris Fetter is Gandalf.  Is that so unrealistic?

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19 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

His FB spin was in the 70th percentile in 2019 and was worth 21 runs according to FG making it one of the better FBs in the league.   I wonder if Hinch and/or Fetter picked up on a mechanical issue from 2020 that they think they can correct? 

Sadly, when you are hitting 30 and have lost 3 mph off your fast ball the change is more likely physiological than mechanical. There seem to be two kinds of guys, those who keep throwing hard at least into their 30's and whose careers usually end on an injury (JV, Max probably) and those whose velo slowly starts to degrade more rapidly as they hit their 30s (Zimmermann, KRod etc) and just fade into ineffectiveness over a few seasons.

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10 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Sadly, when you are hitting 30 and have lost 3 mph off your fast ball the change is more likely physiological than mechanical. There seem to be two kinds of guys, those who keep throwing hard at least into their 30's and whose careers usually end on an injury (JV, Max probably) and those whose velo slowly starts to degrade more rapidly as they hit their 30s (Zimmermann, KRod etc) and just fade into ineffectiveness over a few seasons.

But he threw his FB in 2019 at virtually the same velocity as 2020 and in 2019 it was the 4th most valuable FB in baseball according to Fangraphs.  The only difference was he had a lot more spin on it in 19 vs. 20.  That's why I speculated that perhaps they feel that they can fix that and bring back that lost spin.  

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Porcello can't miss bats, minimize runners or keep the ball on the ground, either.

8.2 k/9 and 2.2 bb/9 are pretty darn good. His gb rate has fallen off but used to be good.

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8 hours ago, Longgone said:

8.2 k/9 and 2.2 bb/9 are pretty darn good. His gb rate has fallen off but used to be good.

It used to be another time, too, but it's this time now.

I mean, we'll see, but also remember, if he does end up being any good, he's hitting the bricks in July. That's kind of lose/lose for Tiger fans.

Also: 8.2 K/9 is now 10% below MLB average, which falls considerably short of pretty darn good.

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8k/9 is below average?  No wonder MLB didn't have any sellouts last season. 

#badtakes

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This is like Stalingrad.  Do the Tigers have a NKVD battalion hanging back behind the agents forcing them to push their players forward to our spring training site?

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1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

But he threw his FB in 2019 at virtually the same velocity as 2020 and in 2019 it was the 4th most valuable FB in baseball according to Fangraphs.  The only difference was he had a lot more spin on it in 19 vs. 20.  That's why I speculated that perhaps they feel that they can fix that and bring back that lost spin.  

that may be for the one year, but the longer term trend from 2106 forward is FB decay, and that is very typical to see and usually irreversible. A guy at first works his grip and his release to try to keep his effectiveness up but as the velo keeps dropping eventually he runs out of tricks to stay effective. And for sure some guys are better at that than others and are able to keep it going longer (Bartolo Colon!). But the bottom line is it's a one year MiLB contract with an invite - so I don't care, I'm just laying out why I don't expect anything - or in the immediate discussion why I might have liked Porcello better - assuming the right answer about RP's missing curve ball last season.

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Gonna be interesting to see if a RH with a sub-90 FB who gives up 4 BB/9 and less than a 2:1 K/BB ratio can be useful in MLB.  

Pretty sure that the really healthy guy with a 3:1 K/BB ratio and < 3 BB/9 will be. 

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4 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Of course Short would be one of the first ones out there, he is grit personified.   

who's at short? Yes.

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6 hours ago, chasfh said:

Porcello can't miss bats, minimize runners or keep the ball on the ground, either.

thank you!  i cant believe rick porcello has so many defenders on this site.

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2 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Best shape of his life. 

Well...

He does look pretty sharp there. And if the rumors were true... he was working his *** off the past winter; so he could play a few games at 1st...?

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7 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

odd thing with Teheran is that his BB/9 took a step up after 2017. Seems a little odd for a guy's command to get worse with more reps. There doesn't seem to be much change in his pitch usage to explain it. I wonder if he has begun to nibble more as his FB as lost it's top end? He was touching 95 in 2017, by late 2019 was topping out at 92. Zimmermann Part Deux, but happily without the Zimmermann size commitment.

Yes, the walks are a problem which really jumps out.  When I do a quick look at stats, I look at that even before I look at strikeouts.  

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5 hours ago, chasfh said:

It's used to be another time, too, but it's this time now.

I mean, we'll see, but also remember, if he does end up being any good, he's hitting the bricks in July. That's kind of lose/lose for Tiger fans.

Also: 8.2 K/9 is now 10% below MLB average, which falls considerably short of pretty darn good.

It's pretty good for the role that he would have had with the Tigers.  A fourth or fifth starter is usually a little below average.  

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29 minutes ago, Buddha said:

thank you!  i cant believe rick porcello has so many defenders on this site.

It's because other people on the site have been saying he sucked his whole career which isn't true.  

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54 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

It's because other people on the site have been saying he sucked his whole career which isn't true.  

Porcello and Sanchez were two guys who could have had more success in Detroit if we had had a GM that had provided a decent BP (or possibly just less bull headed management) so that they had not been consistently asked to pitch past their effective pitch limits. You may want your pitchers to go deeper in games, you may demand your pitchers go deeper in gams, but you can't make pitchers who can go deep in games out of pitchers who can't. (At least you certainly cannot by just repeatedly leaving them out there to get shelled after 70 or 80 or 90 pitches or wherever it is they are gassed. *Maybe* you can put a guy on an off season program that will give him more stamina, but it's never going to happen inside a season). You either work with what they can do or you should trade them to someone who will.

Which by the way is the one thing I have heard Hinch talk about that worries me.

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8 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Porcello and Sanchez were two guys who could have had more success in Detroit if we had had a GM that had provided a decent BP (or possibly just less bull headed management) so that they had not been consistently asked to pitch past their effective pitch limits. You may want your pitchers to go deeper in games, you may demand your pitchers go deeper in gams, but you can't make pitchers who can go deep in games out of pitchers who can't. (At least you certainly cannot by just repeatedly leaving them out there to get shelled after 70 or 80 or 90 pitches or wherever it is they are gassed. *Maybe* you can put a guy on an off season program that will give him more stamina, but it's never going to happen inside a season). You either work with what they can do or you should trade them to someone who will.

Which by the way is the one thing I have heard Hinch talk about that worries me.

In Porcello's case, I also think there was disappointment because he never lived up to his advance billing and never really improved much.  He was like the Tony Clark of pitchers.  

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8 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

In Porcello's case, I also think there was disappointment because he never lived up to his advance billing and never really improved much.  He was like the Tony Clark of pitchers.  

Yeah I think that is the main reason why many people underrated him.  Plus it didn't help that when he was here we had Verlander, Scherzer, Fister and Sanchez so it made him look that much worse.  

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