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Keepleyland2

9/17 @7:10 Cleveland Indians vs Detroit Tigers

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58 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Coming out of college that was considered one of his strengths but seemingly he has lost that the last calendar year or so. Not sure if its bad coaching not identifying a possible mechanical flaw, an injury  or what but it needs to be straightened out before he gets called up next year.  Imo.

Could just be he basically went a year without pitching (between last year's shoulder and this year's covid delay)

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Tigers manager Ron Gardenhire pulled Mize after he walked Francisco Lindor with the bases loaded, putting the Tigers in the hole by five runs.

Mize ended with five runs (three earned) on four hits and three walks with one strikeout in 3⅔ innings. More surprising than the rocky start was his lack of offspeed command. Of his 79 pitches, he used 41% sinkers, 25% four-seam fastballs, 16% cutters, 13% splitters and 5% curveballs.

All four of his swinging strikes — and six of eight called strikes — came from his fastball.

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"He lost command of all his pitches," manager Ron Gardenhire said. "He just started misfiring."


Mize hung a split-fingered fastball to Ramirez in the first inning that ended up 404 feet into the seats in right field. But he settled in and dispatched seven straight through three innings before it all unraveled in a 38-pitch, four-run fourth.

"I just wasn't getting ahead," Mize said. "It felt like I was 2-0 on every guy and it's really tough to pitch in that deep of a hole. I have to do a better job of getting strike one. That's been my game plan the last couple of weeks and I'd shown improvement the last time out.


"But in the fourth inning, I got behind and it got away from me."

This was Mize's sixth start, and having jumped from Double-A to the big leagues, there was bound to be some growing pains. The fourth inning was case-in-point. He didn't pitch much from the stretch in his previous start and he didn't throw a single pitch out of the stretch Thursday until the fourth inning.

"I had been comfortable (pitching out of the stretch) for a while now, but there were probably eight inning there where it didn't happen and it can throw you off. That will be my focus in my bullpen and catch-play this week, a lot of stretch play.

"I was obviously a little bit off there and it led to me spraying pitches all over the place."

More: Tigers' Willi Castro inserts himself into Rookie of the Year chatter

After Cesar Hernandez led off the fourth with a single to left, Ramirez blasted a 3-2 fastball into the seats in right. Mize’s control faltered and the Indians loaded the bases with a couple of walks and a single.

He got Josh Naylor to pop out, but third baseman Isaac Paredes misplayed a ground ball right at the bag at third that would have ended the inning.

"We have to make that play," Gardenhire said. "We get that out and Casey is back in the dugout and probably back out there in the fifth. It wasn't made, but he still has to make pitches and get out of the inning."

Cleveland Indians third baseman Jose Ramirez celebrates his two-run home run with Carlos Santana.
Mize's day was over after walked Francisco Lindor, the ninth Indians player to bat in the fourth. Three of the five runs against him were earned. He gave up four hits and three walks and had just one strikeout and four whiffs on 32 swings.

"Those walks are very unlike me," Mize said. "I have a pretty good track record of not being a guy who walks people. It's just frustrating to go out and walk three guys in an inning and let it get away from me like that."

 

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2 hours ago, kdog said:

Willi Castro is 23!

He also has a 4% walk rate and .453 BABIP and can't play defense. But there is something in that bat for sure.

I think his walk rate will improve--he has shown that in the minors.  His BABIP (and batting average) is not sustainable, but he should be a .280 hitter with some pop. His defense is a concern--hope he can make it work at 2B.

But his age should be factored into any assessment of him--he's always been young for the league he has played in, including this year.  I'm cautiously optimistic that he can have an Omar Infante career.

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3 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Willi.  Was he not appealing to you in the minors?  Or are you just irritated at Tenacious D?

my apologies to Chili Mac--while I can't disagree more about your opinion on Gardy this year, it was a douchy response to your post and I'm sorry for that.  

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12 hours ago, kdog said:

 

Jason Beck understands the overwhelming influence of Jim Adduci on the Tigers' organization, and indeed on North American society.

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Adduci single handedly turned Bieber's career around.  After Deuce tore the cover off of him Bieber realized that he needed to work twice as hard to get hitters the caliber of Deuce out.  

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23 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

my apologies to Chili Mac--while I can't disagree more about your opinion on Gardy this year, it was a douchy response to your post and I'm sorry for that.  

Tenacious D is a gentleman. Why can't we all be like that?

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7 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Little know fact: Deuce paid him off to throw him a cookie.

In other words, Bieber owed Deuce money and Deuce agreed to let him off the hook.   

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16 minutes ago, Charles Liston said:

Jason Beck understands the overwhelming influence of Jim Adduci on the Tigers' organization, and indeed on North American society.

Or Beck also owes Deuce money and needs to promote him in order to prevent some unpleasant circumstances.  

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2 hours ago, Keepleyland2 said:

You mean other than half the starting lineup you listed?

One could also argue that if a lot of players didn't play to their potential, then maybe the manager didn't do such a great job.  

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I don't get the gardy hate. I've liked him and his posse since his Twins days. I think he is adjusting to the modern game. And he smells like Old Spice.

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24 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

One could also argue that if a lot of players didn't play to their potential, then maybe the manager didn't do such a great job.  

Sure. But it seems odd to be like boy this guys suck the whole team was bad except for players 1-20. Other than that they suck! no?

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4 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

my apologies to Chili Mac--while I can't disagree more about your opinion on Gardy this year, it was a douchy response to your post and I'm sorry for that.  

No problem. My point is that, when they look back on 2020, the Tigers will have won more games than they should have based on player performance. And Gardy may likely get credit for that.

We've had a lot of really bad players this year. I mean, we're talking 1962 Mets here:

  • Alcantara - he's 2 for 19
  • Derek Hill - Still looking for his first hit.
  • Daz - he's 1 for 27
  • Demerite - got sent down today apparently. He was 5 for 29. He gets sent down but Derek and Daz stay up! These are tough choices for AA (shd be in sarcasm font)...
  • Rooftop Greiner -
  • Goodrum - The year he fell apart. Yes, G2, he should not hit LH
  • Stewart - Terrible but still better than the OF's above him on this list
  • Lugo - Best guy on this list so far?
  • Cabrera - pretty bad most of the time. Some say his exit velocity is OK. I'd like to see his exit velocity leaving town.
  • Schoop - Yeah, even this guy. 'Cause his career HR's exceed his career walks. Dude's a freak.
  • Nova - His last year. Awful. Terrible signing.
  • Zimmerman - Yeah. The dude held on. Pure greed. He's done. Don Drysdale retired in the middle of a year. Show some class, Jordy. Our pitching roster lists the starters and then the relievers and then Zim down there in his own category.
  • Big Joe - ERA's over 9 Joe.
  • RONY - RuleFive Of New York - fun acronym but his ERA's over 9.
  • Michael Fulmer - ouch. ERA's over 9.
  • Carson Fulmer - nice try by AA but the guy pitched awful
  • Dario Agrazal - made the team somehow but got hurt. May have had an ERA over 9 had he pitched.

That's 2/3 of a team roster of players who might not catch on with any other ML team next year (other than Cabrera, maybe Schoop). This is a historically bad roster. Small sample sizes? Yes. But the small samples were all bad. Since our record is not the worst in the league, Gardy might get some credit. I'm not saying he SHOULD. I'm saying he likely WILL.   

 

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I guess it depends on how much credit you give a manager for outperforming their pythagereon.  The Tigers have the 4th worst run differential in the league but fortunately for them they won a lot of 1 run games, particularly early on.  Is that because of Gardy or luck?   I don't think he has done a terrible job but not sure how much credit I give him either.  I disagree with batting Cabrera 3rd but ultimately that has minimal impact and really would be a tough decision for him to make.   Also thought there were a few times where he wasted guys like Soto or Cisnero in blowouts but perhaps he just wanted to make sure the game was won and not risk anything.    Overall I'm just "meh" on him, don't think he has been terrible but don't think he is some world beater either.  Wouldn't care either way if we kept him or not.  

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my biggest issue with Gardy was his lack of basic analytical insight while he continued to bat Reyes at leadoff, with Schoop at #2.  Neither guy can draw a walk and are not suited to be at the top of the lineup.  I also think his pitching coach has been a disaster.  And we are 7 games under .500 (and counting) and have a -63 run differential, so I struggle with considering this season as a positive or success.

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43 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I guess it depends on how much credit you give a manager for outperforming their pythagereon.

Someday I should do the math on this, but maybe you don't give him any. The arg would be that  the assumption behind pythagorean can break down for  teams that are the worst outliers in runs allowed, which the Tigers have been.. Really bad run differentials on bad teams can end up being driven by blowouts and how bad blowouts get are more a function of pitching staff balance/depth than the real win potential of the team - IOW - I have to believe you could have a deeply mediocre staff that is capable of loosing exactly the same number of  games as an Aces plus Chumps staff, but would likely give up fewer blowouts in the process, and so would end up not looking as good by their Pythag as the Aces and Chumps staff ( runs against per game can't distribute normally once you have games with big variances - it's a distribution only bounded on one side - if the average game is allowing 5 runs, a bad team might often give up 12 on a bad day but can never give up -2 on a good one to balance that). In which case since it's a matter of pitching staff properties, I would put that difference at the GM's door, not the manager's.

In any case while I can see the logic of the statistical argument it doesn't tell me how big it might be. My suspicion is that the effect is real just because IIRC, recently the Tigers, who have had some of the worst negative run differentials in baseball coupled to extremely bad pitching at the far end of the staff,  have had positive Pythagoreans.

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27 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

my biggest issue with Gardy was his lack of basic analytical insight while he continued to bat Reyes at leadoff, with Schoop at #2.  Neither guy can draw a walk and are not suited to be at the top of the lineup.  I also think his pitching coach has been a disaster.  And we are 7 games under .500 (and counting) and have a -63 run differential, so I struggle with considering this season as a positive or success.

That's a tough critique to make on a team full of either poor or unpredictable hitters. Really, who on the team *can* draw a walk other than Cabrera?

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3 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

That's a tough critique to make on a team full of either poor or unpredictable hitters. Really, who on the team *can* draw a walk other than Cabrera?

Candelario and Paredes

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6 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

I guess it depends on how much credit you give a manager for outperforming their pythagereon.  The Tigers have the 4th worst run differential in the league but fortunately for them they won a lot of 1 run games, particularly early on.  Is that because of Gardy or luck?   I don't think he has done a terrible job but not sure how much credit I give him either.  I disagree with batting Cabrera 3rd but ultimately that has minimal impact and really would be a tough decision for him to make.   Also thought there were a few times where he wasted guys like Soto or Cisnero in blowouts but perhaps he just wanted to make sure the game was won and not risk anything.    Overall I'm just "meh" on him, don't think he has been terrible but don't think he is some world beater either.  Wouldn't care either way if we kept him or not.  

It's a 60 game season.  You really can't compare it to a regular baseball season.  Lots of teams/players can have two hot months, but in the course of 162, the wheat usually separates from the chaff.  This year?  Not so much.

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2 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Candelario and Paredes

Paredes is at the bottom of the order because he is his scuffling  - you don't want a guy hitting 100 to get the extra AB every night. Candelario is not your leadoff hitter. I could see him at #2 if you still had Jones in the 9 spot to create some OBP wrap around, but I wouldn't move him higher than 3 in this lineup.

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Isaac is starting to show signs of life. I think he's gonna be a solid semi-portly Tiger when they contend again.

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