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DumberAndLeaner

The Future is Now

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40 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

I'm not lauding them for not relying on their high draft picks (so far.....Royce Lewis is in the pipeline)...I'm saying that they are an example of a team that succeeding in rebuilding without having to rely on the "spoils of tanking".  I'm trying to counter the narrative that you have to lose a lot for a long time.  I'm also saying that Avila so far hasn't shown the skill set necessary to draft or sign and develop, sign FAs, trade, and overall manage things in a balanced way.   

I never said Buxton was the only player that they drafted.

I realize you are being sarcastic but I never made any point about high picks "not counting".  Royce has not contributed to the ML team winning yet, that's why I didn't need to talk about him. 

I was trying to focus on a particular team that has rebuilt without having to rely on top-level draft picks or having to spend big on FAs.

Never said that either.  I am not saying that they should have picked particular players....I was using the Twins as a recent example of a team that succeeded for reasons other than tanking or big FA spending, and which leveraged power-hitting successfully.  It is a model that has worked so far, until it doesn't.  If Avila winds up doing better, fantastic.  

I don’t believe I quoted you, so your “I never saids” are irrelevant. I could just as easily be referring to my friend Ike that also held up the twins as the paragon of franchise building and management (and stadium design; love that target). I was just having some fun with some general talking points and implications that I have seen (and using some silly straw-men to do so). Please don’t think any less of me, if that is even possible. 

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1 minute ago, Stanley68 said:

When the Tigers traded Justin Verlander for a bunch of prospects that isn't tanking to me. It is trading a current asset for future ones. When the Tigers traded Justin Upton, that can be considered tanking. It was a trade made to lower the payroll without regard to the product on the field. I can see why ownership would want to lower payroll on a team destined to lose 100 games.

Tanking is more than just one trade, but one trade can certainly define your course.  JV's trade definitively stated for the team and for the fans that the Tigers were going to be losers for a while.

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1 minute ago, sabretooth said:

Tanking is more than just one trade, but one trade can certainly define your course.  JV's trade definitively stated for the team and for the fans that the Tigers were going to be losers for a while.

Wouldn’t they have been losers even with JV?

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I really don't know enough about how the whole system works to really file a real complaint about it but I wish we would be the ones to get the top international prospects instead of teams like the White Sox, Yankees, Rays and Cubs.    It seems like those teams go all in on the 1 premium guy where as we spread it around and that obviously hasn't worked out too well for us.

This coming year Christian Santana is supposed to be our prized guy but according to MLB, FG and BA he's not in the top 10 among prospects.   We have more money to spend in it than anybody and theoretically should be the team where a player has the easiest chance to make the pros since we have the least amount of talent so we should be able to get anybody we wanted if we truly went that route.

Again though I can't really complain about it cause I don't know exactly how the whole system works, but in a perfect world I wish we would be getting the premium guys not a bunch of a lesser players.  

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1 minute ago, Shelton said:

Wouldn’t they have been losers even with JV?

Sure....I don't remember the sequencing of things, but the JV trade was a major kick in the nuts.

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2 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Cubs did the tank thing, too. Not just the Astros. 

Wasn't that before Epstein though?

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They traded JV because they were losing. He was going to decline anyway, so they got something for him before his value diminished to nothing.

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2 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I really don't know enough about how the whole system works to really file a real complaint about it but I wish we would be the ones to get the top international prospects instead of teams like the White Sox, Yankees, Rays and Cubs.    It seems like those teams go all in on the 1 premium guy where as we spread it around and that obviously hasn't worked out too well for us.

This coming year Christian Santana is supposed to be our prized guy but according to MLB, FG and BA he's not in the top 10 among prospects.   We have more money to spend in it than anybody and theoretically should be the team where a player has the easiest chance to make the pros since we have the least amount of talent so we should be able to get anybody we wanted if we truly went that route.

Again though I can't really complain about it cause I don't know exactly how the whole system works, but in a perfect world I wish we would be getting the premium guys not a bunch of a lesser players.  

I think these international signings are a lot like college football recruiting. You have to lay that groundwork early and build up these pipelines and relationships with the various handlers. I have a feeling the tigers and DD completely ignored this for a long time. I think AA has been more involved. The problem is it will be 2023 before we even have an idea how well Avila did once his regime took over. 

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I still believe that if Mike died 2 years earlier and we could've started the rebuild in 2015 offseason like Avila wanted we would be in far better shape now.  

I'm not entirely sure if Verlander would have brought much more if we traded him in the 15/16 offseason cause he was coming off a pedestrian season and had even more money owed on his contract but certainly guys like JD and Kinsler would have.   Plus we likely would have had a much better pick in the 2017 draft so instead of Faedo we could perhaps have a Kyle Lewis, Mackenzie Gore or Jo Adell.   

 

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3 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Wasn't that before Epstein though?

I believe Epstein was the one that embraced it, but I don’t know. All the years run together at this point. I am fairly certain Epstein showed up and traded away everything he could. Or at the very least made no effort to add to the bad team and let it run its course. 
 

There was the one offseason where they added Lester about a year before they were going to be good (I think).

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Just now, Stanley68 said:

What did AA do while DD was here?

He traded for jacoby Jones while DD was busy locking down the cespedes for Fulmer deal. 

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Did he not notice or not have the time to realize the Tigers were falling behind the curve on international prospects? Or did he realize that after DD left?

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Just now, Stanley68 said:

Did he not notice or not have the time to realize the Tigers were falling behind the curve on international prospects? Or did he realize that after DD left?

I don’t know. He worked for DD. For all we know he noticed and advocated for it and DD said no. Or maybe Mike refused to spend his money that way. 

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1 minute ago, Stanley68 said:

They traded JV because they were losing. He was going to decline anyway, so they got something for him before his value diminished to nothing.

Well, yeah, but it was also a salary dump.  To the extent that the Tigers paid $8M/year in 2017/2018/2019 to have him play for the Astros also shows that it was a salary dump and the Tigers very spectacularly incorrect assumption that JV was declining.  I realize the argument for trading him beyond the $$ is to time the performance of the trade returns with future anticipated team success (i.e., JV would be way over the cliff by the time the rest of the team could win again), but it was still a salary dump and miscalculation as to his future performance value vis a vis the $8M.  TBF, Houston could have upped the ante too if they were positive he was not declining or could rebound.  Also TBF, he had a Cy Young level 2016 and didn't exactly suck in 2017 when he was traded.  He improved unexpectedly, but he still was a much-better-than-average pitcher at that time. 

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2 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I don’t know. He worked for DD. For all we know he noticed and advocated for it and DD said no. Or maybe Mike refused to spend his money that way. 

I think they stretched the payroll so thin they didn't/couldn't allocate many dollars to that area. The preferred pouring more money into the regular draft, before they capped it anyways.

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Just now, Stanley68 said:

I think they stretched the payroll so thin they didn't/couldn't allocate many dollars to that area. The preferred pouring more money into the regular draft, before they capped it anyways.

Agreed. Penny wise and pound foolish. The lack of international signings over the years has been very bad. At least they appear to be taking it seriously now. 

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Bottom line is that they have lost the JV trade due to a lack of information about JV's delivery that could have been discovered and fixed if they had invested in top-line analytics before 2019 or whenever AA finally decided to get into it.  If he was at a Cy Young level throughout 2017 in the same way as he was after the Astros fixed him, AA could have dramatically improved his haul if he was absolutely committed to trading him.

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1 minute ago, Shelton said:

Agreed. Penny wise and pound foolish. The lack of international signings over the years has been very bad. At least they appear to be taking it seriously now. 

What bothers me is that they are same two that signed Miggy in Florida.

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4 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Well, yeah, but it was also a salary dump.  To the extent that the Tigers paid $8M/year in 2017/2018/2019 to have him play for the Astros also shows that it was a salary dump and the Tigers very spectacularly incorrect assumption that JV was declining.  I realize the argument for trading him beyond the $$ is to time the performance of the trade returns with future anticipated team success (i.e., JV would be way over the cliff by the time the rest of the team could win again), but it was still a salary dump and miscalculation as to his future performance value vis a vis the $8M.  TBF, Houston could have upped the ante too if they were positive he was not declining or could rebound.  Also TBF, he had a Cy Young level 2016 and didn't exactly suck in 2017 when he was traded.  He improved unexpectedly, but he still was a much-better-than-average pitcher at that time. 

The problem was is that he did suck in 2017 up until late July.   Before then he had an ERA near 5, an xFIP over 5 and was showing the lowest K and swinging strike rate of his career along with declining velocity and spin rate.   Couple that with the fact he was 35 and teams just didn't want anything to do with him.   He showed signs of life in August but by then the Astros were really the only buyers left.  We could've held onto him but they offered a top 40 prospect, top 75 and borderline top 100 so it was hard to say no.   

People like to look in hindsight and/or think with their heart because of how long JV was here but realistically the odds weren't in his favor to be better and it was the smart thing to do at the time.

Verlander had a great 2016 yes but he had a mid 4s ERA in 2014, missed a bunch of time in 2015 and as mentioned was terrible for the first 4 months of 2017.  He had a TON of miles on him and he was 35, simply put in the non steroid era very few and I mean very very few pitchers don't fall off a cliff at that point.    You can't blame Avila for not betting on him being the 1 guy that didn't.  

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1 hour ago, Shelton said:

I believe Epstein was the one that embraced it, but I don’t know. All the years run together at this point. I am fairly certain Epstein showed up and traded away everything he could. Or at the very least made no effort to add to the bad team and let it run its course. 
 

There was the one offseason where they added Lester about a year before they were going to be good (I think).

The Cubs kinda "tanked" in 2011 by firing their GM (Hendrys) in July, then waiting to hire Epstein in the offseason after losing 91 games.  Epstein "tanked' harder in 2012 (101 losses) after dumping some guys, leading to Kris Bryant's pick...they improved a little in 2013 (96 losses), leading to Schwarber's pick, and a little more in 2014 (89 losses), which resulted in Ian Happ's pick.  They did score Baez as the 9th pick somehow in the 2011 draft after losing only 87 games in 2010....really, the tanking only "scored" them Kris Bryant.

Epstein did have Baez and Rizzo on the way when he became GM, and he had a number of good veterans to deal, so he was not given a bare cupboard to work with.  The vast majority of what he won with was through shrewd trades (Rizzo, Arrieta, Hendricks, Fowler, Montero), other trades of value for value (Chapman, Russell), and big-$$ FA acquisitions (Lester, Zobrist, Heyward).

The point is that they didn't tank for a long time, didn't benefit from the tank beyond getting Bryant (significant though that is), and depended on a broad-based strategy to build a winning team quickly in 2015.  No 5+ years of endless mega-losing, lots of good deals, and then major spending.

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42 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

The problem was is that he did suck in 2017 up until late July.   Before then he had an ERA near 5, an xFIP over 5 and was showing the lowest K and swinging strike rate of his career along with declining velocity and spin rate.   Couple that with the fact he was 35 and teams just didn't want anything to do with him.   He showed signs of life in August but by then the Astros were really the only buyers left.  We could've held onto him but they offered a top 40 prospect, top 75 and borderline top 100 so it was hard to say no.   

People like to look in hindsight and/or think with their heart because of how long JV was here but realistically the odds weren't in his favor to be better and it was the smart thing to do at the time.

Verlander had a great 2016 yes but he had a mid 4s ERA in 2014, missed a bunch of time in 2015 and as mentioned was terrible for the first 4 months of 2017.  He had a TON of miles on him and he was 35, simply put in the non steroid era very few and I mean very very few pitchers don't fall off a cliff at that point.    You can't blame Avila for not betting on him being the 1 guy that didn't.  

You are completely missing my point.  The Tigers whiffed on JV's trade value because they didn't have the tools to help him before they traded him.  That is a reflection on AA that he did not invest in that technology by 2017, when he had already been in control of the team for 2 offseasons.

 

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1 hour ago, Shelton said:

I don’t believe I quoted you, so your “I never saids” are irrelevant. I could just as easily be referring to my friend Ike that also held up the twins as the paragon of franchise building and management (and stadium design; love that target). I was just having some fun with some general talking points and implications that I have seen (and using some silly straw-men to do so). Please don’t think any less of me, if that is even possible. 

Alright, I won't....and for the record I hate the Twins

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