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6 minutes ago, kdog said:

The Twins changed executives just as all their losing paid off. I'm guessing the next guy will look like a genius once Avila is fired. He will be better than Avila because that'sn not hard. But he'll inherit a team with an open payroll and some decent prospects.

Sorry, this is simply wrong - all their losing did ***not*** "pay off" at all.  Buxton is literally the only top-10 1st rounder with a positive WAR on their roster for the last 3 years.

The Twins are where they are because they successfully developed lower draft picks like Rosario, Kepler, paid the $$ to sign Sano, THEN added the FAs and trade acquisitions to make it all work.

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

Who is Clark?

mark lowe.  for some reason i always call him mark clark because i had a pitcher in ootp named mark clark.  

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12 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Lol

From 2011-2018, the twins had six below .500 seasons, and their two winnings seasons were 83 and 85 wins. The 85 win season did earn them a loss in the wild card game. That was in 2017. They followed that up with a 78 win season in 2018.

Lol....they turned it around in 2017....2018 was a setback due to injuries and Sano having a bad year...we Tigers fans would be absolutely delighted to be the Twins circa 2018.  Or 2019.  Or 2020.  And they **didn't** get there by losing, that was my point.

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13 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Max Kepler was signed as an amateur free agent out of Germany in 2009. 

I know that (I had noted that when I researched it a few weeks ago but I forgot when I listed him above)....my point is that they didn't have to lose a ton of games to be able to sign Kepler or Sano, or Rosario, or Escobar, etc...they did need to find them, draft and/or sign them, and successfully develop them, and they did that.  Avila has not had that kind of success in drafting and development.

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7 minutes ago, Buddha said:

mark lowe.  for some reason i always call him mark clark because i had a pitcher in ootp named mark clark.  

Bad general too.

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To come back to the most immediate roster decision Avila has to make - how much longer can they keep hoping for Stewart? He's 26, he doesn't have an injury history like Candy or even JD's to justify development set-backs and he is not showing anything. Out of Dixon (who they had been talking up when he first went back to Toledo) Cameron and Hill there must not be much going on if Stewart still has his gig.

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I had hopes that Stewart had enough pop that he could get to an .800 ops just by hitting out mistake pitches but that hasn't been the case.   

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6 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Lol....they turned it around in 2017....2018 was a setback due to injuries and Sano having a bad year...we Tigers fans would be absolutely delighted to be the Twins circa 2018.  Or 2019.  Or 2020.  And they **didn't** get there by losing, that was my point.

Well, they did lose for a lot of years, and they are just now in year 2 of being good. I think it’s a little early to say they are the model franchise. 

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15 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Well, they did lose for a lot of years, and they are just now in year 2 of being good. I think it’s a little early to say they are the model franchise. 

I don't disagree, the Cardinals are the closest thing to a model franchise from a continuous development/success standpoint, but you have to start with the right idea, and the Twins seem to have the right idea for a not-big-market franchise.  Whether they consistently execute is another matter.

It also matters that the Twins seem to have gone all in on launch angle, including defensive positions and bench players, and it seems to have paid off so far.  The Tigers seem to have been stuck in the would-be contact-hitter mode with Harrison and Mercer; obviously another reason why I like the Schoop/Cron signings and would like that kind of execution to continue.

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27 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

To come back to the most immediate roster decision Avila has to make - how much longer can they keep hoping for Stewart? He's 26, he doesn't have an injury history like Candy or even JD's to justify development set-backs and he is not showing anything. Out of Dixon (who they had been talking up when he first went back to Toledo) Cameron and Hill there must not be much going on if Stewart still has his gig.

Stewart had some success at AA, hits tons of flyballs, but can't seem to square up for enough hard contact/power in the bigs.  His 10% HR/FB rate is anemic for a slugger, and his hard-hit rate is low too.  At age 26 I don't mind if they give him another chance in 2021, they aren't going to win anything anyway in 2021...but he either needs to put up some numbers or be let go after 2021.

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I feel like there is a bit of an issue with lauding teams for not relying on their high drafts, while at the same time saying how great they are at identifying and developing talent.

In the case of the twins “only buxton” is a part of their team right now That comes from their draft picks. Did they just decide not to draft anyone after him?

To be fair, Royce Lewis looks good (but he was 1-1 and a reward for finishing in last place, so he doesn’t count or something).

It’s almost as if you can look at any team that is good right now, and declare how they did it to be the right way. 
 

That said, I don’t disagree that the tigers should have signed better 16 year olds back in 2009, or drafted Eddie Rosario in the 4th round in 2010. Big failure by Avila there. 

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24 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I feel like there is a bit of an issue with lauding teams for not relying on their high drafts, while at the same time saying how great they are at identifying and developing talent.

In the case of the twins “only buxton” is a part of their team right now That comes from their draft picks. Did they just decide not to draft anyone after him?

To be fair, Royce Lewis looks good (but he was 1-1 and a reward for finishing in last place, so he doesn’t count or something).

It’s almost as if you can look at any team that is good right now, and declare how they did it to be the right way. 
 

That said, I don’t disagree that the tigers should have signed better 16 year olds back in 2009, or drafted Eddie Rosario in the 4th round in 2010. Big failure by Avila there. 

most of us wanted the rebuild and the tank and we got it.  

if mize/greene/tork pan out and become the foundation for the club moving forward, it will have done its job.  

jury is still out on avila even if i am definitely in the "we need a new gm" camp.

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2 hours ago, Shelton said:

I feel like there is a bit of an issue with lauding teams for not relying on their high drafts, while at the same time saying how great they are at identifying and developing talent.

I'm not lauding them for not relying on their high draft picks (so far.....Royce Lewis is in the pipeline)...I'm saying that they are an example of a team that succeeding in rebuilding without having to rely on the "spoils of tanking".  I'm trying to counter the narrative that you have to lose a lot for a long time.  I'm also saying that Avila so far hasn't shown the skill set necessary to draft or sign and develop, sign FAs, trade, and overall manage things in a balanced way.   

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In the case of the twins “only buxton” is a part of their team right now That comes from their draft picks. Did they just decide not to draft anyone after him?

I never said Buxton was the only player that they drafted.

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To be fair, Royce Lewis looks good (but he was 1-1 and a reward for finishing in last place, so he doesn’t count or something).

I realize you are being sarcastic but I never made any point about high picks "not counting".  Royce has not contributed to the ML team winning yet, that's why I didn't need to talk about him. 

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It’s almost as if you can look at any team that is good right now, and declare how they did it to be the right way. 

I was trying to focus on a particular team that has rebuilt without having to rely on top-level draft picks or having to spend big on FAs.

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That said, I don’t disagree that the tigers should have signed better 16 year olds back in 2009, or drafted Eddie Rosario in the 4th round in 2010. Big failure by Avila there. 

Never said that either.  I am not saying that they should have picked particular players....I was using the Twins as a recent example of a team that succeeded for reasons other than tanking or big FA spending, and which leveraged power-hitting successfully.  It is a model that has worked so far, until it doesn't.  If Avila winds up doing better, fantastic.  

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Bottom line is that tanking is a stupid cop-out way of rebuilding that puts all of the eggs into the basket of a handful of very high draft picks (that have a mixed record of success anyway).  Tanking takes a very long time to get away from losing, usually 5+ years, typically.  Ultimately, even the tanking teams, when they climb out of the sewer, still rely on a higher-than-average payroll and success in things other than top 1st round picks ultimately to sustain winning over more than a year or two.

Also, Avila sucks.

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1 minute ago, sabretooth said:

Bottom line is that tanking is a stupid cop-out way of rebuilding that puts all of the eggs into the basket of a handful of very high draft picks (that have a mixed record of success anyway).  Tanking takes a very long time to get away from losing, usually 5+ years, typically.  Ultimately, even the tanking teams, when they climb out of the sewer, still rely on a higher-than-average payroll and success in things other than top 1st round picks ultimately to sustain winning over more than a year or two.

 

Most won't agree with you, but I also dislike tanking.  I understand why people like the high draft picks, but being a terrible team for five years or whatever is not entertaining.  Those are five lost years with no guarantee they will produce anything good.  

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6 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Why does it put all the eggs in top first round picks as opposed to top 2nd round, 3rd round, 10th round, etc.

What I have been informed over the years is that after the top 5 - 10 picks your position in the draft order doesn't really predict your outcome in terms of the quality of players....in short, picks after the top 5 - 10 in the first round have pretty random outcomes, so tanking for anything but those top picks is pointless.  That's what I've been told over the years, if there's something that shows that drafting higher in the later rounds helps, I'm all ears.

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10 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Astros are a model franchise for tanking.  I doubt their fan base is too disappointed in the tank.

That may have been worked out as a one-off, but would anyone agree that it was a good idea if they had to do it every 5 years or so?   Anyway I wouldn't.

In any case, they could have accomplished the same on-field success without tanking, albeit with having to pay more $$ in salaries.  The Tigers did that for ten years.

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1 minute ago, sabretooth said:

What I have been informed over the years is that after the top 5 - 10 picks your position in the draft order doesn't really predict your outcome in terms of the quality of players....in short, picks after the top 5 - 10 in the first round have pretty random outcomes, so tanking for anything but those top picks is pointless.  That's what I've been told over the years, if there's something that shows that drafting higher in the later rounds helps, I'm all ears.

They are pretty random, but it doesn't follow that there is no advantage to picking 5-1 v. 5-20.  If a team can correctly idenitfy a late bloomer inside a given round, it seems more likely they get that guy early in the round v. late in the round.

Plus you have more pool money to sign that guy (away from college).

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Just now, sabretooth said:

That may have been worked out as a one-off, but would anyone agree that it was a good idea if they had to do it every 5 years or so?   Anyway I wouldn't.

If it works, you are good for 10 years or something, so I don't understand the point?

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When the Tigers traded Justin Verlander for a bunch of prospects that isn't tanking to me. It is trading a current asset for future ones. When the Tigers traded Justin Upton, that can be considered tanking. It was a trade made to lower the payroll without regard to the product on the field. I can see why ownership would want to lower payroll on a team destined to lose 100 games though.

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1 minute ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

If it works, you are good for 10 years or something, so I don't understand the point?

I expanded on the point to address that question after I posted it above....hopefully that extra bit helps explain my point better.

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